• Title/Summary/Keyword: change of variables

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Investigate the effect of spatial variables on the weather radar adjustment method for heavy rainfall events by ANFIS-PSO

  • Oliaye, Alireza;Kim, Seon-Ho;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.142-142
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    • 2022
  • Adjusting weather radar data is a prerequisite for its use in various hydrological studies. Effect of spatial variables are considered to adjust weather radar data in many of these researches. The existence of diverse topography in South Korea has increased the importance of analyzing these variables. In this study, some spatial variable like slope, elevation, aspect, distance from the sea, plan and profile curvature was considered. To investigate different topographic conditions, tried to use three radar station of Gwanaksan, Gwangdeoksan and Gudeoksan which are located in northwest, north and southeast of South Korea, respectively. To form the suitable fuzzy model and create the best membership functions of variables, ANFIS-PSO model was applied. After optimizing the model, the correlation coefficient and sensitivity of adjusted Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) based on spatial variables was calculated to find how variables work in adjusted QPE process. The results showed that the variable of elevation causes the most change in rainfall and consequently in the adjustment of radar data in model. Accordingly, the sensitivity ratio calculated for variables shows that with increasing rainfall duration, the effects of these variables on rainfall adjustment increase. The approach of this study, due to the simplicity and accuracy of this method, can be used to adjust the weather radar data and other required models.

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Sensitivity analysis based on complex variables in FEM for linear structures

  • Azqandi, Mojtaba Sheikhi;Hassanzadeh, Mahdi;Arjmand, Mohammad
    • Advances in Computational Design
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.15-32
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    • 2019
  • One of the efficient and useful tools to achieve the optimal design of structures is employing the sensitivity analysis in the finite element model. In the numerical optimization process, often the semi-analytical method is used for estimation of derivatives of the objective function with respect to design variables. Numerical methods for calculation of sensitivities are susceptible to the step size in design parameters perturbation and this is one of the great disadvantages of these methods. This article uses complex variables method to calculate the sensitivity analysis and combine it with discrete sensitivity analysis. Finally, it provides a new method to obtain the sensitivity analysis for linear structures. The use of complex variables method for sensitivity analysis has several advantages compared to other numerical methods. Implementing the finite element to calculate first derivatives of sensitivity using this method has no complexity and only requires the change in finite element meshing in the imaginary axis. This means that the real value of coordinates does not change. Second, this method has the lower dependency on the step size. In this research, the process of sensitivity analysis calculation using a finite element model based on complex variables is explained for linear problems, and some examples that have known analytical solution are solved. Results obtained by using the presented method in comparison with exact solution and also finite difference method indicate the excellent efficiency of the proposed method, and it can predict the sustainable and accurate results with the several different step sizes, despite low dependence on step size.

Garlic yields estimation using climate data (기상자료를 이용한 마늘 생산량 추정)

  • Choi, Sungchun;Baek, Jangsun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.969-977
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    • 2016
  • Climate change affects the growth of crops which were planted especially in fields, and it becomes more important to use climate data to predict the yields of the major vagetables. The variation of the crop products caused by climate change is one of the significant factors for the discrepancy of the demand and supply, and leads to the price instability. In this paper, using a panel regression model, we predicted the garlic yields with the weather conditions of different regions. More specifically we used the panel data of the several climate variables for 15 main garlic production areas from 2006 to 2015. Seven variables (average temperature, average maximum temperature, average minimum temperature, average surface temperature, cumulative precipitation, average relative humidity, cumulative duration time of sunshine) for each month were considered, and most significant 7 variables were selected from the total 84 variables by the stepwise regression. The random effects model was chosen by the Hausman test. The average maximum temperature (January), the cumulative precipitation (March, October), the cumulative duration time of sunshine (April, October) were chosen among the variables as the significant climate variables of the model

Factors associated with the weight change trend in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic: the case of Turkey

  • Onal, Hulya Yilmaz;Bayram, Banu;Yuksel, Aysun
    • Nutrition Research and Practice
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    • v.15 no.sup1
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2021
  • BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To determine the weight change trend among the adult Turkish population after 1 yr of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and factors associated with weight change. MATERIALS/METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted between 26 February and 6 March 2021 using an online questionnaire that included questions for sociodemographic variables, eating habits, stress level, and the Three-Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18. Those who weighed themselves 1-2 weeks before the pandemic was declared in Turkey and remembered their weight were invited to participate in the study. Trends in weight and body mass index (BMI) change were calculated. The variables associated with a 1% change in BMI were assessed using hierarchical regression analysis. RESULTS: The study was conducted with 1,630 adults (70.25% female) with a mean age of 32.09 (11.62) yrs. The trend of weight change was found to increase by an average of 1.15 ± 6.10 kg (female +0.72 ± 5.51, male +2.16 ± 7.22 kg) for the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The rate of participants with a normal BMI (18.50-24.99 kg/m2) decreased to 51.91% from 55.75%. Consuming an "Increased amount of food compared to before the pandemic" was found to be the independent variable that had the strongest association with a 1% increase in BMI (β = 0.23 P < 0.001). The average change in the BMI was higher in older individuals than in those who were younger. A high stress level was associated with a decrease in BMI (β = -0.04 P = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the factors associated with weight change after 1 yr of the pandemic in the Turkish population was reported for the first time. A high stress level and increased weight gain trend still occur in Turkey after 1 yr of the pandemic.

Optimization of front Bump Steer for Improving Vehicle Handling Performances (차량의 조종 안정성 향상을 위한 전륜 범프 스터어 최적화)

  • 서권희;이윤기;박래석;박상서;윤희석
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Precision Engineering
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.80-88
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a method to optimize the bump steer characteristics (the change of toe angle with vertical wheel travel) with respect to hard points in the double wishbone front suspension of the four-wheel-drive vehicle using the design of experiment, multibody dynamics simulation, and optimum design program. Front and rear suspensions are modeled as the interconnection of rigid bodies by kinematic joints and force elements using DADS. The design variables with respect to the kinematic characteristics are obtained through the experimental design sensitivity analysis. An object function is defined as the area of absolute differences between the desired and experimental toe angle. By the design of experiment and regression analysis, the regression model function of bump steer characteristics is extracted. The design variables that make the toe angle optimized are selected using the optimum design program DOT. The lane change simulations and tests of the full vehicle models are implemented to evaluate the improvement of vehicle handling performances by the optimization of front bump steer characteristics. The results of the lane change simulations show that the vehicle with optimized bump steer has the weaker understeer tendency than the vehicle with initial bump steer.

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A Leading-price Analysis of Wando Abalone Producer Prices by Shell Size Using VAR Model (VAR 모형을 이용한 크기별 완도 전복가격의 선도가격 분석)

  • Nam, Jongoh;Sim, Seonghyun
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.327-341
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to analyze causality among Wando abalone producer prices by size using a vector autoregressive model to expiscate the leading-price of Wando abalone in various price classes by size per kg. This study, using an analytical approach, applies a unit-root test for stability of data, a Granger causality test to learn about interaction among price classes by size for Wando abalone, and a vector autoregressive model to estimate the statistical impact among t-1 variables used in the model. As a result of our leading-price analysis of Wando abalone producer prices by shell size using a VAR model, first, DF, PP, and KPSS tests showed that the Wando abalone monthly price change rate by size differentiated by logarithm were stable. Second, the Granger causality relationship analysis showed that the price change rate for big size abalone weakly led the price change rate for the small and medium sizes of abalone. Third, the vector autoregressive model showed that three price change rates of t-1 period variables statistically, significantly impacted price change rates of own size and other sizes in t period. Fourth, the impulse response analysis indicated that the impulse responses of structural shocks for price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more powerful in its own size and in other sizes than shocks emanating from other sizes. Fifth, the variance decomposition analysis indicated that the price change rate for big size abalone was relatively more influential than the price change rates for medium and small size abalone.

Production of Digital Climate Maps with 1km resolution over Korean Peninsula using Statistical Downscaling Model (통계적 상세화 모형을 활용한 한반도 1km 농업용 전자기후도 제작)

  • Jina Hur;Jae-Pil Cho;Kyo-Moon Shim;Sera Jo;Yong-Seok Kim;Min-Gu Kang;Chan-Sung Oh;Seung-Beom Seo;Eung-Sup Kim
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.404-414
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    • 2023
  • In this study, digital climate maps with high-resolution (1km, daily) for the period of 1981 to 2020 were produced for the use as reference data within the procedures for statistical downscaling of climate change scenarios. Grid data for the six climate variables including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation was created over Korean Peninsula using statistical downscaling model, so-called IGISRM (Improved GIS-based Regression Model), using global reanalysis data and in-situ observation. The digital climate data reflects topographical effects well in terms of representing general behaviors of observation. In terms of Correlation Coefficient, Slope of scatter plot, and Normalized Root Mean Square Error, temperature-related variables showed satisfactory performance while the other variables showed relatively lower reproducibility performance. These digital climate maps based on observation will be used to downscale future climate change scenario data as well as to get the information of gridded agricultural weather data over the whole Korean Peninsula including North Korea.

Development of Evaluation Model of Pumping and Drainage Station Using Performance Degradation Factors (농업기반시설물 양·배수장의 성능저하 요인분석 및 성능평가 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Jonghyuk;Lee, Sangik;Jeong, Youngjoon;Lee, Jemyung;Yoon, Seongsoo;Park, Jinseon;Lee, Byeongjoon;Lee, Joongu;Choi, Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.4
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2019
  • Recently, natural disasters due to abnormal climates are frequently outbreaking, and there is rapid increase of damage to aged agricultural infrastructure. As agricultural infrastructure facilities are in contact with water throughout the year and the number of them is significant, it is important to build a maintenance management system. Especially, the current maintenance management system of pumping and drainage stations among the agricultural facilities has the limit of lack of objectivity and management personnel. The purpose of this study is to develop a performance evaluation model using the factors related to performance degradation of pumping and drainage facilities and to predict the performance of the facilities in response to climate change. In this study, we focused on the pumping and drainage stations belonging to each climatic zone separated by the Korea geographical climatic classification system. The performance evaluation model was developed using three different statistical models of POLS, RE, and LASSO. As the result of analysis of statistical models, LASSO was selected for the performance evaluation model as it solved the multicollinearity problem between variables, and showed the smallest MSE. To predict the performance degradation due to climate change, the climate change response variables were classified into three categories: climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The performance degradation prediction was performed at each facility using the developed performance evaluation model and the climate change response variables.

Multivariate control charts based on regression-adjusted variables for covariance matrix

  • Kwon, Bumjun;Cho, Gyo-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.937-945
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of using a control chart is to detect any change that occurs in the process. When control charts are used to monitor processes, we want to identify this changes as quickly as possible. Many problems in quality control involve a vector of observations of several characteristics rather than a single characteristic. Multivariate CUSUM or EWMA charts have been developed to address the problem of monitoring covariance matrix or the joint monitoring of mean vector and covariance matrix. However, control charts tend to work poorly when we use the highly correlatted variables. In order to overcome it, Hawkins (1991) proposed the use of regression adjustment variables. In this paper, to monitor covariance matrix, we investigate the performance of MEWMA-type control charts with and without the use of regression adjusted variables.

Reliability sensitivities with fuzzy random uncertainties using genetic algorithm

  • Jafaria, Parinaz;Jahani, Ehsan
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.60 no.3
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    • pp.413-431
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    • 2016
  • A sensitivity analysis estimates the effect of the change in the uncertain variable parameter on the probability of the structural failure. A novel fuzzy random reliability sensitivity measure of the failure probability is proposed to consider the effect of the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. The uncertainties of the engineering variables are modeled as fuzzy random variables. Fuzzy quantities are treated using the ${\lambda}$-cut approach. In fact, the fuzzy variables are transformed into the interval variables using the ${\lambda}$-cut approach. Genetic approach considers different possible combinations within the search domain (${\lambda}$-cut) and calculates the parameter sensitivities for each of the combinations.