Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Production of Digital Climate Maps with 1km resolution over Korean Peninsula using Statistical Downscaling Model

통계적 상세화 모형을 활용한 한반도 1km 농업용 전자기후도 제작

  • Jina Hur (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences ) ;
  • Jae-Pil Cho (Integrated Watershed Management Institute) ;
  • Kyo-Moon Shim (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences ) ;
  • Sera Jo (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences ) ;
  • Yong-Seok Kim (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences ) ;
  • Min-Gu Kang (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences ) ;
  • Chan-Sung Oh (Integrated Watershed Management Institute) ;
  • Seung-Beom Seo (International School of Urban Sciences, University of Seoul) ;
  • Eung-Sup Kim (Climate Change Assessment Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences )
  • 허지나 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 조재필 (유역통합관리연구원) ;
  • 심교문 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 조세라 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 김용석 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 강민구 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과) ;
  • 오찬성 (유역통합관리연구원) ;
  • 서승범 (서울시립대학교) ;
  • 김응섭 (국립농업과학원 기후변화평가과)
  • Received : 2023.10.20
  • Accepted : 2023.12.18
  • Published : 2023.12.30
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Abstract

In this study, digital climate maps with high-resolution (1km, daily) for the period of 1981 to 2020 were produced for the use as reference data within the procedures for statistical downscaling of climate change scenarios. Grid data for the six climate variables including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation was created over Korean Peninsula using statistical downscaling model, so-called IGISRM (Improved GIS-based Regression Model), using global reanalysis data and in-situ observation. The digital climate data reflects topographical effects well in terms of representing general behaviors of observation. In terms of Correlation Coefficient, Slope of scatter plot, and Normalized Root Mean Square Error, temperature-related variables showed satisfactory performance while the other variables showed relatively lower reproducibility performance. These digital climate maps based on observation will be used to downscale future climate change scenario data as well as to get the information of gridded agricultural weather data over the whole Korean Peninsula including North Korea.

본 연구에서는 미래 SSP 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 생산하기 위해 과거 30년(1981-2010)에 대한 한반도 농업용 전자기후도를 생산하고 평가하였다. ERA5 재분석 자료와 기상청 ASOS 자료에 지형인자를 고려하는 IGISRM 통계 모형을 이용하여 기후요소 6종(강수량, 평균기온, 최고기온, 최저기온 풍속, 상대습도, 일사량)에 대한 1km 해상도의 격자형 상세자료를 생산하였다. 연 평균(누적) 분포도를 살펴본 결과, 모든 변수는 기상청 ASOS 관측에서 나타난 일반적인 특성을 잘 모의하면서 지형적 효과가 적절하게 반영되었다. 농진청 농업기상 AWS와 기상청 방재기상 AWS를 이용하여 상관계수, Slope, NRMSE를 계산한 결과, 기온관련 변수에서는 재현성이 우수하게 나타났으며, 그 외 변수에서는 재현성이 다소 낮고 지역적 편차가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 관측정보 기반의 농업용 전자기후도는 미래 SSP 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 상세화하는데 기본 자료로 활용될 것이다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 농촌진흥청 "신농업기후변화대응체계구축사업(과제번호: RS-2021-RD009055)"의 지원으로 수행되었습니다.

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