• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.208-208
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• 2022

Recently, the frequency of abnormal weather due to complex factors such as global warming is increasing frequently. From the past rainfall patterns, it is evident that climate change is causing irregular rainfall patterns. This phenomenon causes difficulty in predicting rainfall and makes it difficult to prevent and cope with natural disasters, casuing human and property damages. Therefore, accurate rainfall estimation and rainfall occurrence time prediction could be one of the ways to prevent and mitigate damage caused by flood and drought disasters. However, rainfall prediction has a lot of uncertainty, so it is necessary to understand and reduce this uncertainty. In addition, when accurate rainfall prediction is applied to the rainfall-runoff model, the accuracy of the runoff prediction can be improved. In this regard, this study aims to increase the reliability of rainfall prediction by analyzing the uncertainty of the Korean rainfall ensemble prediction data and the outflow analysis model using the Limited Area ENsemble (LENS) and the Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) models. First, the possibility of improving rainfall prediction ability is reviewed using the QM (Quantile Mapping) technique among the bias correction techniques. Then, the GRM parameter calibration was performed twice, and the likelihood-parameter applicability evaluation and uncertainty analysis were performed using R², NSE, PBIAS, and Log-normal. The rainfall prediction data were applied to the rainfall-runoff model and evaluated before and after calibration. It is expected that more reliable flood prediction will be possible by reducing uncertainty in rainfall ensemble data when applying to the runoff model in selecting behavioral models for user uncertainty analysis. Also, it can be used as a basis of flood prediction research by integrating other parameters such as geological characteristics and rainfall events.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제16권8호
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• pp.203-212
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• 1999

This paper describes a deadweight force standard machine with the weight change mechanism which can be used as a primary force standards at a national metrology institute. Since commercial deadweight force machine can generate forces by hanging weights to the weight supporter serially, force steps from deadweight force measuring devices of each having different capacity. In order to increase the force steps, we have specially designed a weight mechanism in which the machine can select the necessary weights and generate the load by hanging the selected weights to the weight supporter. The machine can generate 속 force of the range of 2 kN to 110 kN with force step of 1 kN. All weights have been accurately compensated and calibrated by a mass comparator and its standard uncertainty is less than 2.2 ${\times}\;10^{-6}$. The relative expanded uncertainty of the machine is 1.3 ${\times}\;10^{-5}$.

• 한국의학물리학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국의학물리학회 2006년도 제33회 추계학술대회 발표논문집
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• pp.94-94
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• 2006

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.160-167
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• 2001

Cracking in connote structures is one of the main issues of structural design next to ensuring the load-bearing capacity. Thermal analysis is used to prevent thermal mucking, but concrete properties are uncertain variable, and analysis results have uncertainty, too. In this study, sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the effect of conductivity, specific heal and pouring temperature. The results show that lower conductivity and higher specific heat increase the maximum temperature and maximum tensile stress. The structure with internal restraint is mostly influenced by the change of conductivity and specific heat.

• 산업융합연구
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.39-55
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• 2006

Pioneer brand and follower brand show differences in their perception of the environmental uncertainty. Market pioneer brand companies think that the environment is relatively simple and doesn't change much, whereas follower bland companies think that the environment is complicated and changes a lot. For market pioneer brand companies, among dynamism on the environment lever, there was less potential for the environment and parts, and government restrictions compared to follower brand companies. Also the complexity of the environment level complicated compared to the follower brand companies in areas such as competition for consumers with rival companies, materials, resources of equipment and parts, government restrictions, and the amount of change of the market's preference of the product.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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• pp.540-544
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• 2009

Hydrologic pattern under climate change has been paid attention to as one of the most important issues in hydrologic science group. Rainfall and runoff is a key element in the Earth's hydrological cycle, and associated with many different aspects such as water supply, flood prevention and river restoration. In this regard, a main objective of this study is to evaluate design flood using simulation techniques which can consider a full spectrum of uncertainty. Here we utilize a weather state based stochastic multivariate model as conditional probability model for simulating the rainfall field. A major premise of this study is that large scale climatic patterns are a major driver of such persistent year to year changes in rainfall probabilities. Uncertainty analysis in estimating design flood is inevitably needed to examine reliability for the estimated results. With regard to this point, this study applies a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo scheme to the NWS-PC rainfall-runoff model that has been widely used, and a case study is performed in Soyang Dam watershed in Korea. A comprehensive discussion on design flood under climate change is provided.

• 한국정밀공학회지
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• 제15권11호
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• pp.67-75
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• 1998

Geometric and thermal errors are key contributors to the errors of a computer numerically controlled turning center. A planar error synthesis model is obtained by synthesizing 11 geometric and thermal error components of a turning center with homogeneous coordinate transformation method. This paper shows the sensitivity analysis on the temperature change, the confidence evaluation on the uncertainty Of measurement systems, and the error contribution analysis from the planar error synthesis model. Planar error in the z direction was very sensitive to the temperature change. and planar errors in the x and z directions were not affected by the uncertainty of measurement systems. The error contribution analysis ,which is applicable to designing a new turning center, was helpful to find the large error components which affect planar errors of the turning center.

• 품질경영학회지
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• 제46권4호
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• pp.959-972
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• 2018

Purpose: This study developed a simulation model that incorporates the uncertainty of demand and yield to obtain optimized results for supply chain coordination within environmental constraints. The objective of this study is to examine whether yield management for perishable products can achieve the goal of supply chain coordination between a single buyer and a single supplier under a variety of environmental conditions. Methods: We investigated the efficiency of a revenue-sharing contract and a wholesale price contract by considering demand and yield uncertainty, profit maximizing ratio, and success ratio. The implications for environmental variation were derived through a comparative analysis between the wholesale price contract and the revenue-sharing contract. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to give us the results of an optimized supply chain within the environments defined by the experimental factors and parameters. Results: We found that a revised revenue-sharing contracting model was more efficient than the wholesale price contract model and allowed all members of the supply chain to achieve higher profits. First, as the demand variation (${\sigma}$) increased, the profit of the total supply chain increased. Second, as the revenue-sharing ratio (${\Phi}$) increased, the profits of the manufacturer gradually decreased, while the profits of the retailer gradually increased, and this change was linear. Third, as the quality of yield increased, the profits of suppliers appear to increased. At last, success rate was expressed as the profit increased in the revenue-sharing contract compared to the profit increase in the wholesale price contract. Conclusion: The managerial implications of the simulation findings are: (1) a strategic approach to demand and yield uncertainty helps in efficient resource utilization and improved supply chain performance, (2) a revenue-sharing contract amplifies the effect of yield uncertainty, and (3) revised revenue-sharing contracts fetch more profits for both buyers and suppliers in the supply chain.

• 한국철도학회논문집
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.223-227
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• 2014

제동 패드는 철도차량의 기초제동요소 중 하나이다. 제동 패드는 제동 캘리퍼로부터 압부력을 전달받아 제동디스크와의 마찰력으로 철도차량에 제동작용을 한다. 따라서 제동 패드는 주어진 고압의 압부력을 견뎌야 하므로 제동 패드의 주요 성능평가항목으로 압축강도를 관리한다. 압축강도를 측정하는 규격은 KRS, KRCS, KRT 등이 있다. 이들 규격은 압축강도를 측정하기 위한 시험편의 크기를 $20mm{\times}10mm{\times}15mm$ (가로${\times}$세로${\times}$높이)로 규정하고 있다. 압축강도에 대한 불확도를 줄이기 위하여 불확도 요인을 분석한 결과, 단면의 치수를 변경함으로써 불확도를 줄일 수 있음을 알았다. 새로운 단면치수에 의한 불확도를 평가하여 불확도 감소에 대한 유효성을 입증하였다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.154-154
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• 2018

To interpret the climate projections for the future as well as present, recognition of the consequences of the climate internal variability and quantification its uncertainty play a vital role. The Korean Peninsula belongs to the Far East Asian Monsoon region and its rainfall characteristics are very complex from time and space perspective. Its internal variability is expected to be large, but this variability has not been completely investigated to date especially using models of high temporal resolutions. Due to coarse spatial and temporal resolutions of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections, several studies adopted dynamic and statistical downscaling approaches to infer meterological forcing from climate change projections at local spatial scales and fine temporal resolutions. In this study, stochastic downscaling methodology was adopted to downscale daily GCM resolutions to hourly time scale using an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). After extracting factors of change from the GCM realizations, these were applied to the climatic statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series which can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. Further, 30 ensemble members of hourly precipitation were generated for each selected station to quantify uncertainty. Spatial map was generated to visualize as separated zones formed through K-means cluster algorithm which region is more inconsistent as compared to the climatological norm or in which region the probability of occurrence of the extremes event is high. The results showed that the stations located near the coastal regions are more uncertain as compared to inland regions. Such information will be ultimately helpful for planning future adaptation and mitigation measures against extreme events.