• International Journal of Contents
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.69-75
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• 2016

Adolescent media addiction has emerged as an important social agenda in Korea. However, there has not been enough discussion on the causal structure of media addiction and policy interventions. The objective of this study is to identify and assess the mechanism of the existing and the revised Shutdown policy based on the systems thinking approach. To achieve this purpose, we establish the relationship between media usage, flow, and addiction, and develop a causal loop diagram. Based on the causal loop diagram, we explore the causal structure of two policy scenarios: shutdown policy and deregulation. Our study suggests that policy interventions inducing direct parental control on children's media usage time are ineffective since the time control reduces children's autonomy, which helps alleviate media addiction. Therefore, this study suggests that policy intervention should focus on alleviating addiction itself rather than on controlling media usage time.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.177-191
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• 2022

This paper addresses the use of machine learning methods for causal estimation of treatment effects from observational data. Even though conducting randomized experimental trials is a gold standard to reveal potential causal relationships, observational study is another rich source for investigation of exposure effects, for example, in the research of comparative effectiveness and safety of treatments, where the causal effect can be identified if covariates contain all confounding variables. In this context, statistical regression models for the expected outcome and the probability of treatment are often imposed, which can be combined in a clever way to yield more efficient and robust causal estimators. Recently, targeted maximum likelihood estimation and causal random forest is proposed and extensively studied for the use of data-adaptive regression in estimation of causal inference parameters. Machine learning methods are a natural choice in these settings to improve the quality of the final estimate of the treatment effect. We explore how we can adapt the design and training of several machine learning algorithms for causal inference and study their finite-sample performance through simulation experiments under various scenarios. Application to the percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) data shows that these adaptations can improve simple linear regression-based methods.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.61-86
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• 2010

This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. 'Global economic trends', 'change of industrial structure' and 'energy price' were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as 'rate of energy self－sufficiency and alternative energy production', 'economic activity and energy demand' and 'Excavation of new growth engines' were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.75-103
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• 2013

The purpose of this study is to use system dynamics to establish the relation among each variable through the construction process of Community Planning Model, and examine what changes policy scenarios per alternative cause in Community Planning through policy simulation of the constructed model. Therefore, this study extracted chief variables of Community Planning Projects through precedent researches related to Community Planning, and extracted variables were prepared as causal map to examine in what causal cycle feedback structure within Community Planning they can be explained. Next, Community Planning Model was constructed based on the prepared causal map. The model was verified by specialists' interviews and simulation of example areas. This study, which aimed to construct Community Planning Model using system dynamics, has a significance in that it prepared the foundation to provide useful methodology in monitoring the progress of project or establishing the plan of future Community Planning Projects.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2022.04a
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• pp.85-86
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• 2022

Traditionally, the facility inspection was visually conducted by the managers, and consequently the result can be subjective because of different perspective and experience of them. To solve this problem, the studies on this topic has tried to integrate the UAS. However, it is still concerned to use in practice due to the lack of analysis of the performance factors affecting the UAS-based facility condition inspection. Hence, the purpose of this study is to identify the critical factors as well as their correlations by modeling causal loop diagram (CLD). A total of 20 variables were derived in four categorized groups, and the relationships were analyzed. Further study will develop a system dynamics (SD) model to simulate various scenarios based on stock-flow diagram through the defined relationships in this study.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.355-364
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• 2016

Beijing, as a cradle of modern industry and the third largest metropolitan area in China, faces more responsibilities to adjust industrial structure and mitigate carbon emissions. The purpose of this study is aimed at predicting and comparing industrial carbon emissions of Beijing in ten scenarios under different policy focus, and then providing emission-cutting recommendations. In views of various scenarios issues, system dynamics has been applied to predict and simulate. To begin with, the model has been established following the step of causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. This paper decomposes scenarios factors into energy structure, high energy consumption enterprises and growth rate of industrial output. The prediction and scenario simulation results shows that energy structure, carbon intensity and heavy energy consumption enterprises are key factors, and multiple factors has more significant impact on industrial carbon emissions. Hence, some recommendations about low-carbon mode of Beijing industrial carbon emission have been proposed according to simulation results.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.107-134
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• 2016

Accelerated ageing with low fertility is one of the most critical problems in Korea. Because of ageing via low fertility, Korea will face a serious demographic cliff. This research primarily focus on the analyzing the dynamics of the marginal ageing state and decreasing population especially in Eup and Myeon region. This study based on the system dynamics approaches for finding causal loop structure of marginal ageing and critical mass of population disappearing. The results of this study are summarized as follows. First, demographic marginalization trends have already begun in the Eups and Myons of Gun. Second, marginal aging speed in Eup/Myeon areas is causing an population disappearing in the near future. Third, critical mass of population disappearing will begin when the rate of marginal aging is exceed 82% after 2023.

• Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.77-86
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• 2014

Objective: The purpose of this study is to grasp the fundamental structure of incident occurrence in nuclear organizations based on system thinking, and analyze how various causes are interrelated in terms of the causal loop diagram. Background: The recent domestic and overseas nuclear power plant-related incidents and accidents are directly or indirectly associated with safety culture, and thus effective plans for the improvement of safety culture are being called for. While the safety of a nuclear power plant is highly dependent upon technology and equipment, the utilization, maintenance and inspection of the technology and equipment are conducted by workers of the nuclear power plant. Method: Methodology of system thinking perspective using causal loop analysis. Results: As a result of the analysis, first, it turned out that the fundamental cause of incident occurrence in nuclear organizations is time constraint. Second, if a workload of workers increases, their adherence to regulations and procedures comes to be reduced due to time constraint. Third, it is needed, through organizational learning education, to increase actions made from thoughts considering safety as the utmost priority in advance. Fourth, it is necessary to improve professionalism by enhancing educational programs for new workers, and to develop various scenarios with which they can cope with certain situations. Application: This paper provides a base for system dynamics simulation model for future study.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.115-130
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• 2011

This study shows the operational availability(Ao) analysis of the supply chain with maintenance functions using the system dynamics simulation. The simulation uses 60 equipments which are serial systems composed by 4 major components. And every entities are connected each other by causal loops. So whole simulation executed like one organic system. Specially we consider 2 constraints, one is the number of spare parts and the other is maintenance capacity level. 2 constraints have 11 levels each so the simulation has 121(11*11) scenarios which scenario has 30 different random number seed. The simulation executed total 3,630(11*11*30) times. We analysis average Ao of total equipments by 121 scenarios and additionally the regression of the average Ao and 2 constraints. As the result, we can get the more accurate values by the system dynamics simulation than the regression to analysis complex system like the supply chain with maintenance functions.

• Korean System Dynamics Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.37-67
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• 2011

This study first attempted to point out fundamental reasons behind the failure to have WiBro services off the saddle, investigating the previous studies, and second to screen the WiBro promotion policies after reviewing the major steps conducted thus far by the government. In order to put the screened policies in order by the importance, an AHP analysis was conducted targeting WiBro professionals in various fields such as government offices, universities, research institutes, and industry. One step further, causal loop diagramming on the system dynamics methodology was conducted to examine the dynamic structure of the WiBro market in holistic standpoint of view. Finally, a simulation model was developed based on the causal loop diagrams and the results of the AHP analysis in order to examine how various policy scenarios influence the growth of the WiBro market over time, and to compare the mix of policy options. Finally, the study attempted to draw some implications for WiBro vitalization.