• Title/Summary/Keyword: causal asymmetry

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Is Backwards Causation Possible? (후향적인 인과성은 가능한가?)

  • Ahn, Gan-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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    • v.105
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    • pp.269-290
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this paper is to explore the possibility of backwards causation. For study, this paper was divided into four views as follows: The first view was sometimes suggested by the people such as M. Dummett who distinguished observers from behaviors. According to observers' view, backwards causation is impossible, whereas behaviors' view possible. However, in a real or genuine sense, it is incorrect for us to argue for impossibility of backwards causation from the observer aspect. The second view was supported by J. H. Schmidt. He analyzed the possibility of backwards causation in terms of macro and micro level analysis about the causal events. According to micro level analysis, backwards causation is possible, but macro level analysis impossible. Usually the latter makes the former something miraculous. Under the macro level analysis, backwards causation, at first, seems to be miraculous phenomena which belongs to the micro level analysis. The third view had to do with physical equation, and the fourth view physical phenomena, respectively. John Earman argued for the backwards causation by the transformation from Lorentz­-Dirac equation to a second-order integro-differential one in the field of electrodynamic acceleration. His argument was criticized because of his misunderstanding about the relationship between two equations. On the other hand, Phil Dowe defended a version of Reichenbach's own theory about the direction of causation founded on the fork asymmetrical causal relation. However his view was different from Reichenbach's because the former defended the backwards causation model of Bell phenomena in quantum mechanics. On the contrary, Reichenbach put stressed on the priority of cause in the causal process. Subjectivism has recently been defended by H. Price, under the label of perspectivism. According to him, in a certain sense causal asymmetry is not in the world, but is rather a product of our own asymmetric perspective on the world. He also suggested causal net, the symmetry of microphysics, and so on. As mentioned above, there are many kind of suggestions of backwards causation. However none of them replaced objectively the main streams of the direction of causal process. The main stream has been usually defended by pragmatical ground. That is, effects do not precede their causes although causes cannot be without their effects.

Influence of Relationship Factors on Collaborative IT Activities and Firm Performance (기업간 관계요인이 협업적 IT 활동과 기업성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Jang, Si-Young;Choi, Young-Jin
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2006
  • With the diffusion of the Internet, firms try to electronically collaborate with their partners in order to cut costs and gain profits. This, electronic Partnership, called 'Collaborative IT' is quite popular between large purchase enterprises and small-to-medium sized sub-contractors. This study investigates such relations. This study proposes three groups of research variables-interorganizational relationship, collaborative IT activity, and firm performance. the interorganizational relationship consists of trust, commitment, and asymmetry of commitment. Collaborative IT activity is composed of information sharing and workflow integration. The ultimate dependent variable is firm performance. It is hypothesized that the relationship factors influence the level of collaborative IT activity, while the latter in turn affects the firm performance. The relationship factors nay also directly affect the dependent variable. In addition, collaborative IT motive, as a moderating variable, may influence the causal relationship. By means of survey, ore hundred and eighty-two responses were obtained. Most sample companies are small-sized, in the manufacturing sector. The analysis of data reveals that both trust and commitment positively affects the level of collaborative IT activity, while asymmetry of commitment has negative effects. The workflow integration is significantly related with firm performance. Information sharing, however, has no signific3nt effects. Furthermore, asymmetry of commitment shows reverse relationship with firm performance. Collaborative IT motive works as a moderating variable between information sharing and firm performance. Finally, workflow integration is believed to mediate between relationship factors and firm performance.

An Ethical Dilemma and Unethical Behavior of Information Sharing by Information Asymmetry Level (정보비대칭 수준에 따른 정보공유의 윤리적 딜레마와 비윤리적 행동에 관한 연구)

  • Jung, Byoungho
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.131-144
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to empirically examine the unethical information sharing by information asymmetry. I will confirm the effect of ethical dilemma, unethical intention and behavior by the information asymmetry. A research method used the structural equations. The analysis showed causal relationship that ethical dilemma and unethical intention and behaviors by the information sharing. In particular, The ethical dilemma by position level showed different from the factor between dilemma and intention. As a result, the organization should manage differently ethical issue according to position level. The contribution in this study has expended an interpretation scope of broken windows theory from social science and explained a discriminative management of the ethical dilemma by position level from the practical view. A Future study should investigate an unethical behavior reduce by information security systems.

Forecasting volatility index by temporal convolutional neural network (Causal temporal convolutional neural network를 이용한 변동성 지수 예측)

  • Ji Won Shin;Dong Wan Shin
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2023
  • Forecasting volatility is essential to avoiding the risk caused by the uncertainties of an financial asset. Complicated financial volatility features such as ambiguity between non-stationarity and stationarity, asymmetry, long-memory, sudden fairly large values like outliers bring great challenges to volatility forecasts. In order to address such complicated features implicity, we consider machine leaning models such as LSTM (1997) and GRU (2014), which are known to be suitable for existing time series forecasting. However, there are the problems of vanishing gradients, of enormous amount of computation, and of a huge memory. To solve these problems, a causal temporal convolutional network (TCN) model, an advanced form of 1D CNN, is also applied. It is confirmed that the overall forecasting power of TCN model is higher than that of the RNN models in forecasting VIX, VXD, and VXN, the daily volatility indices of S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq, respectively.

Causality and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the Distribution Channel of the Tomato Market in Korea (토마토의 유통단계 간 인과성 및 비대칭적 가격 조정 연구)

  • Kim, Gi-Hwan;Kang, Chang-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.571-583
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to explore the dynamic properties of causality and asymmetric price transmission in the distributional channel of the tomato market in Korea. Using the wholesale and retail price series of the tomato market, we obtain the following results. First, the price transmission mechanism reveals the causal relationship channeling from the wholesale price to the retail price. Second, we find an asymmetric price transmission from the analysis using the threshold partial adjustment model. The retail price responds strongly when the wholesale price increases. On the other hand, the retail price shows sluggish adjustment when the wholesale price decreases.

Price transmission in domestic agricultural markets: the case of retail and wholesale markets of maize in Rwanda

  • Ngango, Jules;Hong, Seungjee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.567-576
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    • 2020
  • One of the main challenges receiving much attention in the Rwandan agriculture and food industry in recent decades is the increases in maize prices. Indeed, a rise in maize prices causes higher living expenses for households because maize, which is a major staple food crop, constitutes a significant share of total food consumption among households in Rwanda. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of integration and how prices are transmitted between retail and wholesale markets of domestic maize in Rwanda. This study used monthly data of retail and wholesale prices of maize from January 1995 to December 2019. This empirical investigation was based on a linear cointegration approach and an asymmetric error correction model framework. Using the augmented dickey-fuller residual-based test and the Johansen Maximum Likelihood cointegration test, the results revealed that the retail and wholesale markets of maize are integrated. Hence, prices in these markets do not drift apart in the long run. The results of the Granger causality test revealed that there is a unidirectional causal relationship flowing from wholesale prices to retail prices, i.e., wholesale prices influence retail prices. Accordingly, the results from the asymmetric error correction model confirmed the presence of a positive asymmetric price transmission between wholesale and retail prices of maize in Rwanda. Thus, we suggest that policymakers take a critical look at the causes and factors that may influence asymmetry price transmission.

Asymmetric Transmission between Producer and Wholesale Prices in Farmed Olive Flounder Market (양식넙치 산지-도매가격간 비대칭적 가격전이 분석)

  • Lee, Heon-Dong;Ma, Chang-Mo
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.69-83
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether asymmetric price transmission exists in the distribution stage of farmed olive flounder market. For the analysis, time series data were used for the producer prices of Jeju and Wando, and the wholesale prices of Incheon, Hanam and Busan. Through the Granger causality test, the causal relationship from the producer price to the wholesale price was derived and the asymmetric price transmission was analyzed using the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL). As a result of the analysis, it was found that there is a phenomenon of 'positive asymmetric price transmission' from the producer price to the wholesale price. This result can be one evidence that excess profits are received in the intermediate distribution stage, and can be said to be a result showing the incompleteness and inefficiency of the distribution structure of the farmed olive flounder. In the future, it is required to establish an information-sharing system in all stages of production, distribution, and consumption that can create a competitive environment for distribution participants and resolve information asymmetry. Also, it is necessary to review the distribution center specializing in live fish from the viewpoint of the establishment of new distribution channels and sales diversification strategy under the rapidly changing fisheries environment.

Perception of College Students toward the Fairness of Korean College Admission System: A Grounded Theory Approach (대학입시제도의 공정성에 대한 대학생들의 인식 연구: 근거이론적 접근)

  • Choe, Jong-Mook
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.562-573
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    • 2016
  • Diversification of college admission system has recently brought up the problem of system fairness. Studies on fairness of college admission system mainly focused on policy proposal or investigation of teacher's perception. Different from previous works, this study aims to analyze college students' perceptions of fairness of the current college admission system. This study used grounded theory and interviews from eleven students. Results of analysis are as follows. Causal condition proved to be frequent change in admission system happened in the course of diversifying admission criteria. The core phenomenon is fundamental unfairness in both procedural and substantive aspects of admission system. Contextual condition is information and infrastructure asymmetry among students which has a root in regional gap in Korea. Mediatory condition is advance of information technology and individual or group effort to overcome disadvantages. In conclusion, students consider that unfairness in college admission system reflects social structural problems that cannot be solved in a one-time prescription.

The Asymmetric Relationship between Output Volatility and Growth : Evidence from the U.K. Industrial Production (영국 산업생산 자료에 나타난 성장률과 변동성간의 비대칭적 관계)

  • Kim, Jan R.
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.86-107
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    • 2010
  • Prior research on the relationship between output volatility and growth has produced mixed results, failing to provide clear empirical evidence on the sign of the relationship. In this paper, we raise the possibility that such failure is due to misspecification in empirical models previously used, i.e., not taking into account the business cycle dependence of the volatility-growth relation. We set off with the conjecture that higher volatility exerts qualitatively different effect on growth depending on whether the economy is in expansion or contraction. We estimate a series of ARCH-type models with the monthly industrial production data of the U.K., and find strong evidence suggesting that the volatility-growth relation is positive when the economy is in expansion, while higher volatility lowers growth rate in the contraction phase. We also find evidence supporting that the volatility-growth relation estimated in the paper captures a a causal relation, not a bidirectional correlation.

An Analysis of the Dynamics between Media Coverage and Stock Market on Digital New Deal Policy: Focusing on Companies Related to the Fourth Industrial Revolution (디지털 뉴딜 정책에 대한 언론 보도량과 주식 시장의 동태적 관계 분석: 4차산업혁명 관련 기업을 중심으로)

  • Sohn, Kwonsang;Kwon, Ohbyung
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.33-53
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    • 2021
  • In the crossroads of social change caused by the spread of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the prolonged COVID-19, the Korean government announced the Digital New Deal policy on July 14, 2020. The Digital New Deal policy's primary goal is to create new businesses by accelerating digital transformation in the public sector and industries around data, networks, and artificial intelligence technologies. However, in a rapidly changing social environment, information asymmetry of the future benefits of technology can cause differences in the public's ability to analyze the direction and effectiveness of policies, resulting in uncertainty about the practical effects of policies. On the other hand, the media leads the formation of discourse through communicators' role to disseminate government policies to the public and provides knowledge about specific issues through the news. In other words, as the media coverage of a particular policy increases, the issue concentration increases, which also affects public decision-making. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to verify the dynamic relationship between the media coverage and the stock market on the Korean government's digital New Deal policy using Granger causality, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition analysis. To this end, the daily stock turnover ratio, daily price-earnings ratio, and EWMA volatility of digital technology-based companies related to the digital new deal policy among KOSDAQ listed companies were set as variables. As a result, keyword search volume, daily stock turnover ratio, EWMA volatility have a bi-directional Granger causal relationship with media coverage. And an increase in media coverage has a high impact on keyword search volume on digital new deal policies. Also, the impulse response analysis on media coverage showed a sharp drop in EWMA volatility. The influence gradually increased over time and played a role in mitigating stock market volatility. Based on this study's findings, the amount of media coverage of digital new deals policy has a significant dynamic relationship with the stock market.