• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.91-111
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• 2000

Causal maps or cognitive maps have been widely used to get insights for complex systems or decision makers. When insights come from the system behavior rather than its structure, we need simulation of causal maps and cognitive maps. In this paper, a method for directly converting causal maps and cognitive maps into stock-flow diagrams that can be simulated in computers in proposed. This method is called as NUMBER. NUMBER is an abbreviation for 'Normal Unit Modeling By Elementary Relationship'. In this paper, NUMBER is applied to a cognitive map of policy maker to show its usefulness.

• 인지과학
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.329-347
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• 2017

범주기반 속성추론에 대한 초기연구들은 전형성, 다양성, 유사성 효과 등 인간 사고에서 나타나는 다양한 현상들을 보고하였다. 이후 연구들은 이러한 추론에서 참가자들의 사전지식이 광범위한 영향을 미친다는 것을 발견하였다. 본 연구에서는 다양한 사전지식들 중 하나인 인과적 지식이 속성추론에 미치는 영향을 검증하고 이를 모델링하였다. 이를 위해 참가자들은 네 개의 속성으로 구성된 범주에서 속성들이 공통원인 혹은 공통효과 인과구조로 연결되었을 때 속성추론과제를 실시하였다. 그 결과 전형성 효과와 더불어 공통원인 구조에서 인과적 마코프 조건(causal Markov condition)에 대한 위배와 공통효과 구조에서 인과적 절감(causal discounting)이 관찰되었다. 이를 모델링하기 위해 참가자들은 표적속성이 존재하는 범주예시와 존재하지 않은 범주예시가 존재할 가능성에 대한 차이값 (즉, $p(E_{F(X)}{\mid}Cat)-p(E_{F({\sim}X)}{\mid}Cat)$에 근거하여 속성추론을 수행한다고 가정하였다. 인과모형이론(Rehder, 2003)에 기반하여 범주예시들의 확률값을 계산한 후 각 표적속성에 대한 추론에 적용하였다. 그 결과 모형은 참가자들의 데이터에서 관찰된 전형성 효과뿐만 아니라 인과적 마코프 조건에 대한 위배 및 인과적 절감을 모두 예측한다는 것이 확인되었다.

• 인지과학
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• 제27권4호
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• pp.541-572
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• 2016

인과 추론은 심리학에서는 물론 최근 베이스 접근법을 취하는 인지과학자들에 의해서도 활발히 연구되고 있다. 본 연구는 인과추론에 대한 대표적 심리학 이론인 힘-확률대비이론(a power probabilistic contrast theory of causality)을 중심으로 인과 추론의 최근 동향을 개관하고자 한다. 힘-확률대비이론에서는, 원인은 결과를 일으키거나 억제하는 힘(power)인데, 이 힘은 특정한 조건하에서 통계적 상관을 통해 파악될 수 있다고 가정한다. 본 논문에서는 이 이론에 대한 초기의 경험적 지지 증거를 먼저 살펴본 다음, 베이스 접근에 기반을 둔 이론과의 쟁점을 명확히 하고, 원인은 맥락에 무관하게 동일하게 작동한다는 인과적 불변성 가정(causal invariance hypothesis)을 중심으로 한 보다 최근의 연구 결과를 소개하고자 한다. 이 연구들은 종래의 통계적 접근법으로는 잘 설명되지 않는 결과를 제시함으로써, 철학, 통계학, 그리고 인공 지능 등과 같은 인접 분야에 인과성에 대한 힘 이론을 진지하게 고려할 것을 촉구하고 있다.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.535-540
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• 2013

Objective: The aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of causal links between various error causes in human error analysis. Background: As finding root causes of human error in safety-critical systems is often a cognitively demanding and time-consuming task, it is particularly necessary to develop a method for improving both the quality and efficiency of the task. Although a few methods such as CREAM have suggested causal linking between error causes as a means to enhance the quality and efficiency of human error analysis, no published research to date has evaluated the performance of the causal links. Method: The performance of the CREAM links between error causes were evaluated with 80 railway accident investigation reports from the UK. From each report, errorneous actions of operators were derived, and for each error, candidate causes were found by following the predefined links. Two measures, coverage and selectivity, were used to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of the links, respectively. Results: On average, 96% of error causes actually included in the accident reports were found by following the causal links, and among the total of 121 possible error causes, the number of error causes to be examined further was reduced to one-tenth on average. As an additional result of this work, frequent error causes and frequently used links are provided. Conclusion: This result implies that the predefined causal links between error causes can significantly reduce the time and effort required to find the multiple levels of error causes and their causal relations without losing the quality of the results. Application: The CREAM links can be applied to human error analysis in any industry with minor modifications.

• 대한수학회논문집
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.385-392
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• 1995

Along with certain properties of a chronal or a causal isomorphism, we discuss the invariant nature of a causality conditions of a given space-time.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2004년도 하계 학술대회 발표논문집
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• pp.109-128
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• 2004

The complexity of information and communication policy has been increasing due to its rapid changes and its expansions toward various fields. I used the2001, 2002 and 2003 White Papers on MIC(Ministry of Information and Communication Republic of Korea) as a reference and the Vensim PLE program to create a causal map. According to my analysis, no major feedback loop was found among the information and communication policies. Thus, it was impossible to conduct a causal map analysis on these policies. The causal map analysis is usually employed to understand a complex mechanism of entire policies by finding feedback loops among them. A lack of feedback loops makes it impossible to conduct the causal map analysis and means that the mechanism of such policies is even more complex to understand. The most important conclusion is that to consider feedback thought among the policies based on the systems thinking before making the policies.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.13-33
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• 2006

Using structural equation modeling, this study empirically examined the causal relationships among the level of advanced manufacturing technology (AMT), facilitation of alignment, the degree of strategic alignment of management eccounting Information systems (MAIS), and the improvement of production performance. The causal relationships between MAIS strategic alignment and information characteristics of MAIS were also investigated. The results showed that the level of AMT has a significant and positive impact on alignment facilitation. A significant causal relationship between alignment facilitation and MAIS strategic alignment was also found. It was shown that under high degrees of MAIS strategic alignment, MAIS must provide broad-scope and integrated types of Information. The causal relation-ships between MAIS strategic alignment and organizational performance were significant and positive. Thus, it is concluded that under high levels of AMT, a high degree of MAIS strategic alignment positively contributes to the improvement of production performance.

• 한국언어정보학회지:언어와정보
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.131-147
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• 2004

the two Korean causal conjunctive suffixes, -nula(ko) and -nun palamey, based on corpus linguistic analysis. Many of the linguistic accounts available, both in pedagogical reference and in the literature on linguistics, provide incomplete analyses of these suffixes, based on fabricated linguistic data. Using naturally occurring, real linguistic data, this paper examines the syntactic and semantic structures of the two causal suffixes through a consideration of three areas of corpus linguistic analysis: token frequencies, collocations, and semantic prosody. An analysis based on concordance data reveals that the two causal connectives, -nula(ko) and -nun palamey, have more differences than similarities in terms of syntactic and semantic constraints. The idiosyncratic structures of the two suffixes are discussed in terms of same subject condition, verb selection, same agent condition, synchronicity condition, and negative semantic prosody.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.61-86
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• 2010

This research analyzed on the future energy society of Korea in 2030 using system thinking approach. Key uncertainty factors determining the future energy society were analyzed in a multi disciplinary view point such as politics, economy, society, ecology and technology. Three causal loop diagrams for the future energy system in Korea and related policy leverages were shown as well. 'Global economic trends', 'change of industrial structure' and 'energy price' were identified as key uncertainty factors determining the Korean energy future. Three causal loop diagrams named as 'rate of energy self－sufficiency and alternative energy production', 'economic activity and energy demand' and 'Excavation of new growth engines' were developed. We integrated those causal loop diagrams into one to understand the entire energy system of the future, proposed three strategic scenarios(optimistic, pessimistic and most likely) and discussed implications and limits of this research.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.303-311
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• 2023

Traditional mediation analysis, which relies on linear regression models, has faced criticism due to its limited suitability for cases involving different types of variables and complex covariates, such as interactions. This can result in unclear definitions of direct and indirect effects. As an alternative, causal mediation analysis using the counterfactual framework has been introduced to provide clearer definitions of direct and indirect effects while allowing for more flexible modeling methods. However, the conceptual understanding of this approach based on the counterfactual framework remains challenging for applied researchers. To address this issue, the present article was written to highlight and illustrate the definitions of causal estimands, including controlled direct effect, natural direct effect, and natural indirect effect, based on the key concept of nested counterfactuals. Furthermore, we recommend using 2 R packages, 'medflex' and 'mediation', to perform causal mediation analysis and provide public health examples. The article also offers caveats and guidelines for accurate interpretation of the results.