• Title/Summary/Keyword: catastrophe model

Search Result 28, Processing Time 0.022 seconds

Humanitarian Relief Logistics with Time Restriction: Thai Flooding Case Study

  • Manopiniwes, Wapee;Nagasawa, Keisuke;Irohara, Takashi
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
    • /
    • v.13 no.4
    • /
    • pp.398-407
    • /
    • 2014
  • Shortages and delays in a humanitarian logistics system can contribute to the pain and suffering of survivors or other affected people. Humanitarian logistics budgets should be sufficient to prevent such shortages or delays. Unlike commercial supply chain systems, the budgets for relief supply chain systems should be able to satisfy demand. This study describes a comprehensive model in an effort to satisfy the total relief demand by minimizing logistics operations costs. We herein propose a strategic model which determines the locations of distribution centers and the total inventory to be stocked for each distribution center where a flood or other catastrophe may occur. The proposed model is formulated and solved as a mixed-integer programming problem that integrates facility location and inventory decisions by considering capacity constraints and time restrictions in order to minimize the total cost of relief operations. The proposed model is then applied to a real flood case involving 47 disaster areas and 13 distribution centers in Thailand. Finally, we discuss the sensitivity analysis of the model and the managerial implications of this research.

Displacement aging component-based stability analysis for the concrete dam

  • Huang, Xiaofei;Zheng, Dongjian;Yang, Meng;Gu, Hao;Su, Huaizhi;Cui, Xinbo;Cao, Wenhan
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.241-246
    • /
    • 2018
  • The displacement monitoring data series reconstruction method was developed under equal water level effects based on displacement monitoring data of concrete dams. A dam displacement variation equation was set up under the action of temperature and aging factors by optimized analysis techniques and then the dam displacement hydraulic pressure components can be separated. Through the dynamic adjustment of temperature and aging effect factors, the aging component isolation method of dam displacement was developed. Utilizing the isolated dam displacement aging components, the dam stability model was established. Then, the dam stability criterion was put forward based on convergence and divergence of dam displacement aging components and catastrophe theory. The validity of the proposed method was finally verified combined with the case study.

Analysis of Typhoon Vulnerability According to Quantitative Loss Data of Typhoon Maemi (태풍 매미의 피해 데이터 기반 국내 태풍 취약성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Ahn, Sung-Jin;Kim, Tae-Hui;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
    • /
    • 2019.05a
    • /
    • pp.125-126
    • /
    • 2019
  • This study aims to recognize damage indicators of typhoon and to develop damage function's indicators, using information derived from the actual loss of typhoon Maemi. As typhoons engender significant financial damage all over the world, governments and insurance companies, local or global, develop hurricane risk assessment models and use it in quantifying, avoiding, mitigating, or transferring the risks. For the reason, it is crucial to understand the importance of the risk assessment model for typhoons, and the importance of reflecting local vulnerabilities for more advanced evaluation. Although much previous research on the economic losses associated with natural disasters has identified the risk indicators that are indispensable, more comprehensive research addressing the relationship between vulnerability and economic loss are still called for. Hence this study utilizes and analyzes the actual loss record of the typhoon Maemi provided by insurance companies to fill such gaps. In this study, natural disaster indicators and basic building information indicators are used in order to generate the vulnerability functions; and the results and indicators suggest a practical approach to create the vulnerability functions for insurance companies and administrative tasks, while reflecting the financial loss and local vulnerability of the actual buildings.

  • PDF

Restructuring of human security practice model to improve practical utility: Focusing on the COVID-19 situation (실천적 유용성 향상을 위한 인간안보 실천모델의 재구성 : COVID-19 상황을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Sung-Rok
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.6 no.4
    • /
    • pp.633-642
    • /
    • 2020
  • The recent COVID-19 pandemic is threatening human life and well-being, causing pain that has not been experienced before. Human security was summoned again as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is paradoxically a threat to human security due to its inherent limitations and authoritarian control model. This paper first raises the analytical rigor of the concept of human security, focusing on COVID-19. Based on this, the practical usefulness of human security is improved by constructing a practical model that reflects the human security issues raised in reality. In particular, we approach the COVID-19 pandemic not from a natural disaster, but from the perspective of an artificial catastrophe caused by immorality and division in the international community. At the same time, we propose a multilateralism governance model that reflects the perspective of emerging security in order to realize human rights, the fundamental value of human security, and quarantine, a practical task in a balanced way.

Building Damage Functions Using Limited Available Data for Volcanic Ash Loss Estimation (가용자료가 제한된 경우 화산재 피해 예측을 위한 손상함수 구축)

  • Yu, Soonyoung;Yoon, Seong-Min;Jiang, Zhuhua;Choi, Miran
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
    • /
    • v.34 no.6
    • /
    • pp.524-535
    • /
    • 2013
  • Catastrophe risk models require the damage functions of each vulnerable item in inventory to estimate volcanic ash losses. The damage functions are used to represent the relation between damage factors and damage and also widely used in engineering and natural hazard studies to calculate the vulnerability. In most cases, damage functions are constructed as fragility or vulnerability curves, and researchers are confused by the similarities between them particularly when they perform interdisciplinary research. Thus, we aim to explain the similarities and differences between fragility and vulnerability curves and their relationship by providing case studies to construct them. In addition, we suggest a simple method to construct the damage functions between damage ratio and volcanic ash thickness using limited damage data. This study comes from the fact that damage functions are generally constructed using damage data. However, there is no available volcanic ash damage data in Korea, and not even enough volcanic disaster data to construct damage functions in the world, compared to other hazards. Using the method suggested in the study and the limited damage data from Japan and New Zealand, we construct Weibull-type functions or linear functions dependent of available data to calculate volcanic ash loss estimation, which we think need to be corrected to make it more suitable for inventory characteristics and environmental conditions in Korea.

News Focus - Today and Tomorrow of the Korea-made NPP, SMART (뉴스초점 - 한국 토종 원자로 'SMART"의 오늘과 내일)

  • Kim, Hak-Roh
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
    • /
    • v.44 no.6
    • /
    • pp.40-44
    • /
    • 2011
  • Nuclear energy in Korea began in 1958, when the Korea's atomic energy act was formulated and the relevant organizations were founded. Since then, notwithstanding the two catastrophe like TMI and Chernobyl accident, Korea made a wise decision to expand the peaceful uses of the nuclear energy as well as to localize the essential nuclear design technology of fuel and nuclear steam supply system. This decision resulted in the success of export of nuclear power plants as well as research reactor in 2010s. The Korea's nuclear policy, which well utilized 'international crisis in nuclear business' as 'opportunity of Korea to get. nuclear technology', is believed nice policy as a role model of nuclear new-comer countries. Based upon the success story of localization of nuclear technology, Korea had an eye for a niche market, which was a basis of development of SMART, Korea-made integral PWR. The operation of a SMART plant can sufficiently provide not only electricity but also fresh water for 100,000 residents. Last two years, Korea's nuclear industry team led by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute completed the standard design of SMART and applied to the Korea's regulatory body for standard design approval. Now the Korea's licensing authority is reviewing the design with the relevant documents, and the design team is doing its best to realize its hope to get the approval by the end of this year. From next year, the SMART business including construction and export will be explored by the KEPCO consortium.

  • PDF

Elastoplastic FEM analysis of earthquake response for the field-bolt joints of a tower-crane mast

  • Ushio, Yoshitaka;Saruwatari, Tomoharu;Nagano, Yasuyuki
    • Advances in Computational Design
    • /
    • v.4 no.1
    • /
    • pp.53-72
    • /
    • 2019
  • Safety measures for tower cranes are extremely important among the seismic countermeasures at high-rise building construction sites. In particular, the collapse of a tower crane from a high position is a very serious catastrophe. An example of such an accident due to an earthquake is the case of the Taipei 101 Building (the author was the project director), which occurred on March 31, 2002. Failure of the bolted joints of the tower-crane mast was the direct cause of the collapse. Therefore, it is necessary to design for this eventuality and to take the necessary measures on construction sites. This can only be done by understanding the precise dynamic behavior of mast joints during an earthquake. Consequently, we created a new hybrid-element model (using beam, shell, and solid elements) that not only expressed the detailed behavior of the site joints of a tower-crane mast during an earthquake but also suppressed any increase in the total calculation time and revealed its behavior through computer simulations. Using the proposed structural model and simulation method, effective information for designing safe joints during earthquakes can be provided by considering workability (control of the bolt pretension axial force and other factors) and less construction cost. Notably, this analysis showed that the joint behavior of the initial pretension axial force of a bolt is considerably reduced after the axial force of the bolt exceeds the yield strength. A maximum decrease of 50% in the initial pretension axial force under the El Centro N-S Wave ($v_{max}=100cm/s$) was observed. Furthermore, this method can be applied to analyze the seismic responses of general temporary structures in construction sites.

An Intelligent Game Theoretic Model With Machine Learning For Online Cybersecurity Risk Management

  • Alharbi, Talal
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.22 no.6
    • /
    • pp.390-399
    • /
    • 2022
  • Cyber security and resilience are phrases that describe safeguards of ICTs (information and communication technologies) from cyber-attacks or mitigations of cyber event impacts. The sole purpose of Risk models are detections, analyses, and handling by considering all relevant perceptions of risks. The current research effort has resulted in the development of a new paradigm for safeguarding services offered online which can be utilized by both service providers and users. customers. However, rather of relying on detailed studies, this approach emphasizes task selection and execution that leads to successful risk treatment outcomes. Modelling intelligent CSGs (Cyber Security Games) using MLTs (machine learning techniques) was the focus of this research. By limiting mission risk, CSGs maximize ability of systems to operate unhindered in cyber environments. The suggested framework's main components are the Threat and Risk models. These models are tailored to meet the special characteristics of online services as well as the cyberspace environment. A risk management procedure is included in the framework. Risk scores are computed by combining probabilities of successful attacks with findings of impact models that predict cyber catastrophe consequences. To assess successful attacks, models emulating defense against threats can be used in topologies. CSGs consider widespread interconnectivity of cyber systems which forces defending all multi-step attack paths. In contrast, attackers just need one of the paths to succeed. CSGs are game-theoretic methods for identifying defense measures and reducing risks for systems and probe for maximum cyber risks using game formulations (MiniMax). To detect the impacts, the attacker player creates an attack tree for each state of the game using a modified Extreme Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (that sees numerous compromises ahead). Based on the findings, the proposed model has a high level of security for the web sources used in the experiment.

Media Access Control Protocol Considering MANET of Underwater Environment (수중 환경의 MANET을 고려한 매체 접근 제어 프로토콜)

  • Shin, Seung-Won;Yun, Nam-Yeol;Lee, Jin-Young;Lee, Seung-Joo;Park, Soo-Hyun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
    • /
    • v.50 no.4
    • /
    • pp.97-107
    • /
    • 2013
  • Underwater wireless communication systems can be useful for underwater environment observation, catastrophe prevention, ocean resources exploration, ocean organism research, vessel sinking exploration, and so on. However, unlike terrestrial wireless communication, underwater wireless communication should consider factors such as long propagation delay, limited transmission capacity, high bit-error rate due to potential loss in power, ambient noise, man-made noise, multi-path, etc., because of the inherent characteristics of water. Thus, in this paper, we propose a suitable media access control(MAC) protocol that applies a combination of the ALOHA MAC protocol and the CSMA/CA MAC protocol to underwater environment. We further propose a mathematical analysis model to evaluate performance. We also verify performance improvement in the proposed scheme in comparison with existing MAC protocols.

Estimation of Economic Risk Capital of Insurance Company using the Extreme Value Theory (극단치이론을 이용한 보험사 위험자본의 추정)

  • Yeo, Sung-Chil;Chang, Dong-Han;Lee, Byung-Mo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.20 no.2
    • /
    • pp.291-311
    • /
    • 2007
  • With a series of unexpected huge losses in the financial markets around the world recently, especially in the insurance market with extreme loss cases such as catastrophes, there is an increasing demand for risk management for extreme loss exposures due to high unpredictability of those risks. For extreme risk management, to make a maximum use of the information concerning the tail part of a loss distribution, EVT(Extreme Value Theory) modelling nay be the best to analyze extreme values. The Extreme Value Theory is widely used in practice and, especially in financal markets, EVT modelling is getting popular to analyBe the effects of extreme risks. This study is to review the significance of the Extreme Value Theory in risk management and, focusing on analyzing insurer's risk capital, extreme risk is measured using the real fire loss data and insurer's specific amount of risk capital is figured out to buffer the extreme risk.