• Title/Summary/Keyword: capacity prediction

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Modeling and analysis of selected organization for economic cooperation and development PKL-3 station blackout experiments using TRACE

  • Mukin, Roman;Clifford, Ivor;Zerkak, Omar;Ferroukhi, Hakim
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.356-367
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    • 2018
  • A series of tests dedicated to station blackout (SBO) accident scenarios have been recently performed at the $Prim{\ddot{a}}rkreislauf-Versuchsanlage$ (primary coolant loop test facility; PKL) facility in the framework of the OECD/NEA PKL-3 project. These investigations address current safety issues related to beyond design basis accident transients with significant core heat up. This work presents a detailed analysis using the best estimate thermal-hydraulic code TRACE (v5.0 Patch4) of different SBO scenarios conducted at the PKL facility; failures of high- and low-pressure safety injection systems together with steam generator (SG) feedwater supply are considered, thus calling for adequate accident management actions and timely implementation of alternative emergency cooling procedures to prevent core meltdown. The presented analysis evaluates the capability of the applied TRACE model of the PKL facility to correctly capture the sequences of events in the different SBO scenarios, namely the SBO tests H2.1, H2.2 run 1 and H2.2 run 2, including symmetric or asymmetric secondary side depressurization, primary side depressurization, accumulator (ACC) injection in the cold legs and secondary side feeding with mobile pump and/or primary side emergency core coolant injection from the fuel pool cooling pump. This study is focused specifically on the prediction of the core exit temperature, which drives the execution of the most relevant accident management actions. This work presents, in particular, the key improvements made to the TRACE model that helped to improve the code predictions, including the modeling of dynamical heat losses, the nodalization of SGs' heat exchanger tubes and the ACCs. Another relevant aspect of this work is to evaluate how well the model simulations of the three different scenarios qualitatively and quantitatively capture the trends and results exhibited by the actual experiments. For instance, how the number of SGs considered for secondary side depressurization affects the heat transfer from primary side; how the discharge capacity of the pressurizer relief valve affects the dynamics of the transient; how ACC initial pressure and nitrogen release affect the grace time between ACC injection and subsequent core heat up; and how well the alternative feeding modes of the secondary and/or primary side with mobile injection pumps affect core quenching and ensure stable long-term core cooling under controlled boiling conditions.

Estimation of Resistance Bias Factors for the Ultimate Limit State of Aggregate Pier Reinforced Soil (쇄석다짐말뚝으로 개량된 지반의 극한한계상태에 대한 저항편향계수 산정)

  • Bong, Tae-Ho;Kim, Byoung-Il;Kim, Sung-Ryul
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.17-26
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the statistical characteristics of the resistance bias factors were analyzed using a high-quality field load test database, and the total resistance bias factors were estimated considering the soil uncertainty and construction errors for the application of the limit state design of aggregate pier foundation. The MLR model by Bong and Kim (2017), which has a higher prediction performance than the previous models was used for estimating the resistance bias factors, and its suitability was evaluated. The chi-square goodness of fit test was performed to estimate the probability distribution of the resistance bias factors, and the normal distribution was found to be most suitable. The total variability in the nominal resistance was estimated including the uncertainty of undrained shear strength and construction errors that can occur during the aggregate pier construction. Finally, the probability distribution of the total resistance bias factors is shown to follow a log-normal distribution. The parameters of the probability distribution according to the coefficient of variation of total resistance bias factors were estimated by Monte Carlo simulation, and their regression equations were proposed for simple application.

Development of Impact Factor Response Spectrum with Tri-Axle Moving Loads and Investigation of Response Factor of Middle-Small Size-RC Slab Aged Bridges (3축 이동하중을 고려한 충격계수 응답스펙트럼 개발 및 중소규모 RC 슬래브 노후교량 응답계수 분석)

  • Kim, Taehyeon;Hong, Sanghyun;Park, Kyung-Hoon;Roh, Hwasung
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2019
  • In this paper the response factor is investigated for middle and small size-RC slab aged bridges. The response factor consists of static and dynamic response factors and is a main parameter in the frequency based-bridge load carrying capacity prediction model. Static and dynamic response factors are determined based on the frequency variation and the impact factor variation respectively between current and previous (or design) states of bridges. Here, the impact factor variation is figured out using the impact factor response spectrum which provides the impact factor according to the natural frequency of bridges. In this study, four actual RC slab bridges aged over 30 years after construction are considered and their span length is 12m. The dynamic loading test in field using a dump truck and eigenvalue analysis with FE models are conducted to identify the current and previous (or design) state-natural frequencies of the bridges, respectively. For more realistic considerations in the moving loading situation, the impact factor response spectrum is developed based on tri-axle moving loads representing the dump truck load distribution and various supporting conditions such as simply supported and both ends fixed conditions. From the results, the response factor is widely ranged from 0.21to 0.91, showing that the static response factor contributes significantly on the results while the dynamic response factor has a small effect on the result. Compared to the results obtained from the impact factor response spectrum based on the single axle-simply supported condition, the maximum percentage difference of the response factors is below 3.2% only.

Prediction of Long-term Behavior of Ground Anchor Based on the Field Monitoring Load Data Analysis (현장 하중계 계측자료 분석을 통한 그라운드 앵커의 장기거동 예측)

  • Park, Seong-yeol;Hwang, Bumsik;Lee, Sangrae;Cho, Wanjei
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.37 no.8
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2021
  • Recently, the ground anchor method is commonly applied with nail and rock bolt to secure the stability of slopes and structures in Korea. Among them, permanent anchor which is used for long-term stability should secure bearing capacity and durability during the period of use. However, according to recent studies, phenomenon such as deformation to slope and the reduction of residual tensile load over time have been reported along the long-term behavior of the anchors. These problems of reducing residual tensile load are expected to increase in the future, which will inevitably lead to problems such as increasing maintenance costs. In this study, we identified the factors that affect the tensile load of permanent anchor from a literature study on the domestic and foreign, and investigated the prior studies that analyzed previously conducted load cell monitoring data. Afterwards, using this as basic data, the load cell measurement data collected at the actual site were analyzed to identify the tensile load reduction status of anchors, and the long-term load reduction characteristics were analyzed. Finally, by aggregating the preceding results, proposed a technique to predict the long-term load reduction characteristics of permanent anchors through short-term data to around 100 days after installation.

Air passenger demand forecasting for the Incheon airport using time series models (시계열 모형을 이용한 인천공항 이용객 수요 예측)

  • Lee, Jihoon;Han, Hyerim;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.18 no.12
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    • pp.87-95
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    • 2020
  • The Incheon airport is a gateway to and from the Republic of Korea and has a great influence on the image of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to predict the number of airport passengers in the long term in order to maintain the quality of service at the airport. In this study, we compared the predictive performance of various time series models to predict the air passenger demand at Incheon Airport. From 2002 to 2019, passenger data include trend and seasonality. We considered the naive method, decomposition method, exponential smoothing method, SARIMA, PROPHET. In order to compare the capacity and number of passengers at Incheon Airport in the future, the short-term, mid-term, and long-term was forecasted by time series models. For the short-term forecast, the exponential smoothing model, which weighted the recent data, was excellent, and the number of annual users in 2020 will be about 73.5 million. For the medium-term forecast, the SARIMA model considering stationarity was excellent, and the annual number of air passengers in 2022 will be around 79.8 million. The PROPHET model was excellent for long-term prediction and the annual number of passengers is expected to be about 99.0 million in 2024.

Prediction of Battery Performance of Electric Propulsion Lightweight Airplane for Flight Profiles (비행프로파일에 대한 전기추진 경량비행기의 배터리 성능 예측)

  • Kim, Hyun-Gi;Kim, Sungchan
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2021
  • Electrically powered airplanes can reduce CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and reduce airplane costs in the long run through efficient energy use. For this reason, advanced aviation countries such as the United States and the European Union are leading the development of innovative technologies to implement the full-electric airplane in the future. Currently, the research and development to convert existing two-seater engine airplanes to electric-powered airplanes are underway domestically. The airplane converted to electric propulsion is the KLA-100, which aims to carry out a 30-minute flight test with a battery pack installed using the engine mounting space and copilot space. The lithium-ion battery installed on the airplane converted to electric propulsion was designed with a specific power of 150Wh/kg, weight of 200kg, and a C-rate 3~4. This study confirmed the possibility of a 30-minute flight with a designed battery pack before conducting a flight test of a modified electrically propelled airplane. The battery performance was verified by dividing the 30-minute flight profile into start/run stage, take-off stage, climbing stage, cruise stage, descending stage, and landing/run stage. The final target of the 30-minute flight was evaluated by calculating the battery capacity required for each stage. Furthermore, the flight performance of the electrically propelled airplane was determined by calculating the flight availability time and navigation distance according to the flight speed.

Prediction of Hydrodynamic Behavior of Unsaturated Ground Due to Hydrogen Gas Leakage in a Low-depth Underground Hydrogen Storage Facility (저심도 지중 수소저장시설에서의 수소가스 누출에 따른 불포화 지반의 수리-역학적 거동 예측 연구)

  • Go, Gyu-Hyun;Jeon, Jun-Seo;Kim, YoungSeok;Kim, Hee Won;Choi, Hyun-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.38 no.11
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2022
  • The social need for stable hydrogen storage technologies that respond to the increasing demand for hydrogen energy is increasing. Among them, underground hydrogen storage is recognized as the most economical and reasonable storage method because of its vast hydrogen storage capacity. In Korea, low-depth hydrogen storage using artificial protective structures is being considered. Further, establishing corresponding safety standards and ground stability evaluation is becoming essential. This study evaluated the hydro-mechanical behavior of the ground during a hydrogen gas leak from a low-depth underground hydrogen storage facility through the HM coupled analysis model. The predictive reliability of the simulation model was verified through benchmark experiments. A parameter study was performed using a metamodel to analyze the sensitivity of factors affecting the surface uplift caused by the upward infiltration of high-pressure hydrogen gas. Accordingly, it was confirmed that the elastic modulus of the ground was the largest. The simulation results are considered to be valuable primary data for evaluating the complex analysis of hydrogen gas explosions as well as hydrogen gas leaks in the future.

A basic study for explosion pressure prediction of hydrogen fuel vehicle hydrogen tanks in underground parking lot (지하주차장 수소연료차 수소탱크 폭발 압력 예측을 위한 기초 연구)

  • Lee, Ho-Hyung;Kim, Hyo-Gyu;Yoo, Ji-Oh;Lee, Hu-Yeong;Kwon, Oh-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.23 no.6
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    • pp.605-612
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    • 2021
  • Amid growing global damage due to abnormal weather caused by global warming, the introduction of eco-friendly cars is accelerating to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from internal combustion engines. Accordingly, many studies are being conducted in each country to prepare for the explosion of hydrogen fuel in semi-closed spaces such as tunnels and underground parking lots to ensure the safety of hydrogen-electric vehicles. As a result of predicting the explosion pressure of the hydrogen tank using the equivalent TNT model, it was found to be about 1.12 times and 2.30 times higher at a height of 1.5 meters, respectively, based on the case of 52 liters of hydrogen capacity. A review of the impact on the human body and buildings by converting the predicted maximum explosive pressure into the amount of impact predicted that all predicted values would result in lung damage or severe partial destruction. The predicted degree of damage was applied only by converting the amount of impact caused by the explosion, and considering the additional damage caused by the explosion, it is believed that the actual damage will increase further and safety and disaster prevention measures should be taken.

A Evaluation of Fire Behavior According to Member Thickness of Precast Prestressed Hollow Core Slab of Fire Resistance Section (프리캐스트 프리스트레스트 내화단면 중공슬래브의 부재두께에 따른 화재거동평가 )

  • Yoon-Seob Boo;Kyu-Woong Bae;Sang-Min Shin
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2023
  • At construction sites, interest in the production of precast materials is increasing due to off-site conditions due to changes in construction site conditions due to increased labor costs and the Act on the Punishment of Serious Accidents. In particular, the precast prestressed hollow slab has a hollow shape in the cross section, so structural performance is secured by reducing weight and controlling deflection through stranded wires. With the application of structural standards, the urgency of securing fire resistance performance is emerging. In this study, a fire-resistance cross section was developed by reducing the concrete filling rate in the cross section and improving the upper and lower flange shapes by optimizing the hollow shape in the cross section of the slab to have the same or better structural performance and economic efficiency compared to the existing hollow slab. The PC hollow slab to which this was applied was subjected to a two-hour fire resistance test using the cross-sectional thickness as a variable, and as a result of the test, fire resistance performance (load bearing capacity, heat shielding property, flame retardance property) was secured. Based on the experimental results, it is determined that fire resistance modeling can be established through numerical analysis simulation, and prediction of fire resistance analysis is possible according to the change of the cross-sectional shape in the future.

Selection Method for Installation of Reduction Facilities to Prevention of Roe Deer(Capreouls pygargus) Road-kill in Jeju Island (제주도 노루 로드킬 방지를 위한 저감시설 대상지 선정방안 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Ji;Jang, Rae-ik;Yoo, Young-jae;Lee, Jun-Won;Song, Eui-Geun;Oh, Hong-Shik;Sung, Hyun-Chan;Kim, Do-kyung;Jeon, Seong-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2023
  • The fragmentation of habitats resulting from human activities leads to the isolation of wildlife and it also causes wildlife-vehicle collisions (i.e. Road-kill). In that sense, it is important to predict potential habitats of specific wildlife that causes wildlife-vehicle collisions by considering geographic, environmental and transportation variables. Road-kill, especially by large mammals, threatens human safety as well as financial losses. Therefore, we conducted this study on roe deer (Capreolus pygargus tianschanicus), a large mammal that causes frequently Road-kill in Jeju Island. So, to predict potential wildlife habitats by considering geographic, environmental, and transportation variables for a specific species this study was conducted to identify high-priority restoration sites with both characteristics of potential habitats and road-kill hotspot. we identified high-priority restoration sites that is likely to be potential habitats, and also identified the known location of a Road-kill records. For this purpose, first, we defined the environmental variables and collect the occurrence records of roe deer. After that, the potential habitat map was generated by using Random Forest model. Second, to analyze roadkill hotspots, a kernel density estimation was used to generate a hotspot map. Third, to define high-priority restoration sites, each map was normalized and overlaid. As a result, three northern regions roads and two southern regions roads of Jeju Island were defined as high-priority restoration sites. Regarding Random Forest modeling, in the case of environmental variables, The importace was found to be a lot in the order of distance from the Oreum, elevation, distance from forest edge(outside) and distance from waterbody. The AUC(Area under the curve) value, which means discrimination capacity, was found to be 0.973 and support the statistical accuracy of prediction result. As a result of predicting the habitat of C. pygargus, it was found to be mainly distributed in forests, agricultural lands, and grasslands, indicating that it supported the results of previous studies.