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Developing a Traffic Accident Prediction Model for Freeways (고속도로 본선에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Mun, Sung-Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn;Lee, Soo-Beom
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.101-116
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    • 2012
  • Accident prediction models have been utilized to predict accident possibilities in existing or projected freeways and to evaluate programs or policies for improving safety. In this study, a traffic accident prediction model for freeways was developed for the above purposes. When selecting variables for the model, the highest priority was on the ease of both collecting data and applying them into the model. The dependent variable was set as the number of total accidents and the number of accidents including casualties in the unit of IC(or JCT). As a result, two models were developed; the overall accident model and the casualty-related accident model. The error structure adjusted to each model was the negative binomial distribution and the Poisson distribution, respectively. Among the two models, a more appropriate model was selected by statistical estimation. Major nine national freeways were selected and five-year dada of 2003~2007 were utilized. Explanatory variables should take on either a predictable value such as traffic volumes or a fixed value with respect to geometric conditions. As a result of the Maximum Likelihood estimation, significant variables of the overall accident model were found to be the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volume to the number of curved segments between ICs(or JCTs). For the casualty-related accident model, the link length between ICs(or JCTs), the daily volumes(AADT), and the ratio of bus volumes had a significant impact on the accident. The likelihood ratio test was conducted to verify the spatial and temporal transferability for estimated parameters of each model. It was found that the overall accident model could be transferred only to the road with four or more than six lanes. On the other hand, the casualty-related accident model was transferrable to every road and every time period. In conclusion, the model developed in this study was able to be extended to various applications to establish future plans and evaluate policies.

Memory Organization for a Fuzzy Controller.

  • Jee, K.D.S.;Poluzzi, R.;Russo, B.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1041-1043
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    • 1993
  • Fuzzy logic based Control Theory has gained much interest in the industrial world, thanks to its ability to formalize and solve in a very natural way many problems that are very difficult to quantify at an analytical level. This paper shows a solution for treating membership function inside hardware circuits. The proposed hardware structure optimizes the memoried size by using particular form of the vectorial representation. The process of memorizing fuzzy sets, i.e. their membership function, has always been one of the more problematic issues for the hardware implementation, due to the quite large memory space that is needed. To simplify such an implementation, it is commonly [1,2,8,9,10,11] used to limit the membership functions either to those having triangular or trapezoidal shape, or pre-definite shape. These kinds of functions are able to cover a large spectrum of applications with a limited usage of memory, since they can be memorized by specifying very few parameters ( ight, base, critical points, etc.). This however results in a loss of computational power due to computation on the medium points. A solution to this problem is obtained by discretizing the universe of discourse U, i.e. by fixing a finite number of points and memorizing the value of the membership functions on such points [3,10,14,15]. Such a solution provides a satisfying computational speed, a very high precision of definitions and gives the users the opportunity to choose membership functions of any shape. However, a significant memory waste can as well be registered. It is indeed possible that for each of the given fuzzy sets many elements of the universe of discourse have a membership value equal to zero. It has also been noticed that almost in all cases common points among fuzzy sets, i.e. points with non null membership values are very few. More specifically, in many applications, for each element u of U, there exists at most three fuzzy sets for which the membership value is ot null [3,5,6,7,12,13]. Our proposal is based on such hypotheses. Moreover, we use a technique that even though it does not restrict the shapes of membership functions, it reduces strongly the computational time for the membership values and optimizes the function memorization. In figure 1 it is represented a term set whose characteristics are common for fuzzy controllers and to which we will refer in the following. The above term set has a universe of discourse with 128 elements (so to have a good resolution), 8 fuzzy sets that describe the term set, 32 levels of discretization for the membership values. Clearly, the number of bits necessary for the given specifications are 5 for 32 truth levels, 3 for 8 membership functions and 7 for 128 levels of resolution. The memory depth is given by the dimension of the universe of the discourse (128 in our case) and it will be represented by the memory rows. The length of a world of memory is defined by: Length = nem (dm(m)+dm(fm) Where: fm is the maximum number of non null values in every element of the universe of the discourse, dm(m) is the dimension of the values of the membership function m, dm(fm) is the dimension of the word to represent the index of the highest membership function. In our case then Length=24. The memory dimension is therefore 128*24 bits. If we had chosen to memorize all values of the membership functions we would have needed to memorize on each memory row the membership value of each element. Fuzzy sets word dimension is 8*5 bits. Therefore, the dimension of the memory would have been 128*40 bits. Coherently with our hypothesis, in fig. 1 each element of universe of the discourse has a non null membership value on at most three fuzzy sets. Focusing on the elements 32,64,96 of the universe of discourse, they will be memorized as follows: The computation of the rule weights is done by comparing those bits that represent the index of the membership function, with the word of the program memor . The output bus of the Program Memory (μCOD), is given as input a comparator (Combinatory Net). If the index is equal to the bus value then one of the non null weight derives from the rule and it is produced as output, otherwise the output is zero (fig. 2). It is clear, that the memory dimension of the antecedent is in this way reduced since only non null values are memorized. Moreover, the time performance of the system is equivalent to the performance of a system using vectorial memorization of all weights. The dimensioning of the word is influenced by some parameters of the input variable. The most important parameter is the maximum number membership functions (nfm) having a non null value in each element of the universe of discourse. From our study in the field of fuzzy system, we see that typically nfm 3 and there are at most 16 membership function. At any rate, such a value can be increased up to the physical dimensional limit of the antecedent memory. A less important role n the optimization process of the word dimension is played by the number of membership functions defined for each linguistic term. The table below shows the request word dimension as a function of such parameters and compares our proposed method with the method of vectorial memorization[10]. Summing up, the characteristics of our method are: Users are not restricted to membership functions with specific shapes. The number of the fuzzy sets and the resolution of the vertical axis have a very small influence in increasing memory space. Weight computations are done by combinatorial network and therefore the time performance of the system is equivalent to the one of the vectorial method. The number of non null membership values on any element of the universe of discourse is limited. Such a constraint is usually non very restrictive since many controllers obtain a good precision with only three non null weights. The method here briefly described has been adopted by our group in the design of an optimized version of the coprocessor described in [10].

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The theory of lesson plannig and the instructional structuration : A case study for urban units in Japanese high school (수업설계론과 수업구조화 - 일본 고등학교 도시단원을 사례로 -)

  • ;Sim, Kwang Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.166-182
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    • 1994
  • Kyonggi Province in the late Chosun dynasty was a center of superior government offices including 'Han' River water-road transportation and was located in the middle of an 'X'-shaped arterial road network. Because of these reasons, Kyonggi Province had a faster inflow of commodities, informations and technics compared with the other province. At this period of time, every local 'Eup' (name of administrative district) had not been affected by their above administrative districts and had their own autonomy. For this reason, every 'Eup' could be developed as a town, even if its size was small when it had sufficient internal growing conditions. Moreover, the markets ('Si-Jon') in big towns and periodical markets which were spread over the Kyonggi Province played role of commercial functions of town. And because military bases for the defence of the royal capital in Kyonggi Province also took parts of a non-agricultural city role, Xyonggi Provinc had much more possibilities of growing as a town rather than the other provinces. The towns of the late Chosun Dynasty were, except the capital and superior administrative districts which were governed by the 'You-Su', small towns which had only about 3, 000-5, 000 people. Most of the town dewellers were local officials, nobles, merchants, craftmen and slaves. And the farmers who lived near town became a pseudo-towner through suburb agriculture. Among these people, the merchants were leaders of townization. The downtowns were affected by the landform and traffic roads. The most fundamental function of towns were administrative. The opcial's grade, which was dispatched to the local administrative district ('Kun' or 'Hyun'), was decided by the size of population and agricultural land of each county. Large county which was governed by a high ranking opcial had more possibilities to develop as a large town. Because they supervised other opcials of lower rank and obtained more land and population for the town. The phonomena of farm abandonment after the Japanese Invasion of Korea in 1592-1598 stimulated the development of towns for commercial function. The commercial functions of towns were evident in the Si-Jon or Nan-Jon (names of markets) in the big cities such as Hansung and Kaesung, meanffwhile in the local areas it was emerged in the shape of periodical market networks as allied with near markets (which were called as Jang-Si) or permanent markets which were grown up from periodical markets. These facts of commercial development induced the birth of commercial town. Kyonggi Province showed the weak points of its defense system during both wars (Japanese Invasion in 1592 and Manchu's Invasion in 1636). The government reinforced its defense system by adding 4 'You-Su-Bus' and several military bases. Each local districts ('Eup'), where Geo-Jins were established, were stimulated to be a town while Jin-Kwan system were, adjusted and enforced. Among Dok-Jins(name of solitary military bases), Youngjongjin was grown up as a large garrison town which only played a role of defense. The number of towns that took roles of non-agricultural functions in Kyonggi Province was 52. Among these towns, 29 were developed as big towns which had above 3, 000 people and most of these towns were located on the northwest-southeast axes of 'X'-shaped arterial trafic network in the Chosn Dynasty, This fact points out that the traffic road is one of the important causes of the development of towns. When we make hierarchy of the towns of Kyonggi Province according to its population and how many functions it had, we can make it as 6 grades. The virst grade town 'Hansung' was the biggest central town of administration, commerce and defdnse. The 2nd grade town includes 'Kaesung' which had historical inertia that it had been the capital of the Koryo Dynesty. The 3rd grade towns include some 'You- Su-Bus' such as Soowon, Kanghwa, Kwangju and also include Mapo, Yongsan and from this we can imagine that the commercial development in the late Chosun Dynasty extremely affected the townization. The 4th-6th grade towns had smiliar population but it can be discriminated by how many town functions it had. So the 4th grade towns were the core of administration, commerce and defense function. 5th grade towns had administrative functions and one of commercial and defense functions. 6th grade towns had only one of these functions. When we research and town conditions of each grades as the ratio of non-agricultural population, we can find out that the towns from the 1st grade to 4th grade show difference by degree of townization but from the 4th grade to 6th grade towns do not show big difference in general.

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A Study on File Transfer Methods on IEEE-1394 Serial Bus (IEEE-1394 버스에서의 파일 전송 기법에 연구)

  • 편기현;강성일;이흥규
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 1998.10a
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    • pp.261-263
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    • 1998
  • IEEE-1394 버스(이하 13394 버스)는 가정용 가전기기와 컴퓨터를 서로연결 할 수 있는 버스로 100Mbps, 200Mbps, 400Mbps의 광대역폭을 제공하고 데이터를 전달하는 방법으로 비동기 (asynchromous)전송뿐만 아니라 등시성(isochronous)전송도 제공한다. 비동기 전송은 시간의 제약이 없고 정확한 전달이 필요한 데이터에 적합한 반면 등시성 전송은 실시간을 요구하고정확한 전잘이 필요없는 데이터에 적합한 특성을 가진다. 1394 버스는 멀티미디어 데이터를 생성하고 편집하는 장치들을 서로 연결시키고 기존의 LAN이 갖는 대역폭의 부족과 프로토콜살의 실시간 전송 방법의 부재 때문에 진정한 의미의 실시간 구현이 어려웠던 화상 전화기, 화상회의 시스템, 비디오편집 시스템을 가능하게 한다. 이러한 멀티미디어 응용 시스템은1)대용향의 멀티미디어 파일 전송을 필요로 하고 화상전화기 혹은 화상회의 시스템은 2) 고속의 파일 전송을 요구하게 된다. 또 두사람이 화상 전화기를 통해 통신을 하면서 여러 가지 문서를 교환하는 경우 최대한 빠르게 파일 전송이 완료될 필요가 있다. 현재 1394버스에서 IP가 올리는 일이 진행중이므로 기존의 FTP는 사용할 수 없다. 게다가 1394 버스에 IP가 올라가더라도 1394 버스 내에서 대용량의 파일을 더 빠르고 정확하게 전달하기 위해서는 IP오버헤드가 없고 1394 버스의 특성을 직접 이용한 새로운 파일 전송 기법이 필요하다. 1394 버스내에서 대용량의 파일을 빠르고 정확하게 전송하는 기법을 찾기 위해서는 비동기 전송과 등기성 전송의 특성을 잘 이해해야하고 각 전송 방법으로 파일을 전송 할 때 생기는 장단점들을 파악해야한다. 본 논문에서는 비동기 전송과 등기성 전송을 이용한 팔일 전송 기법을 각각 제시하고 실험을 통해 이들의 특성을 비교분석하였다.미에서 uronic acid 함량이 두 배 이상으로 나타났다. 흑미의 uronic acid 함량이 가장 많이 용출된 분획은 sodium hydroxide 부분으로서 hemicellulose구조가 polyuronic acid의 형태인 것으로 사료된다. 추출획분의 구성단당은 여러 곡물연구의 보고와 유사하게 glucose, arabinose, xylose 함량이 대체로 높게 나타났다. 점미가 수가용성분에서 goucose대비 용출함량이 고르게 나타나는 경향을 보였고 흑미는 알칼리가용분에서 glucose가 상당량(0.68%) 포함되고 있음을 보여주었고 arabinose(0.68%), xylose(0.05%)도 다른 종류에 비해서 다량 함유한 것으로 나타났다. 흑미는 총식이섬유 함량이 높고 pectic substances, hemicellulose, uronic acid 함량이 높아서 콜레스테롤 저하 등의 효과가 기대되며 고섬유식품으로서 조리 특성 연구가 필요한 것으로 사료된다.리하였다. 얻어진 소견(所見)은 다음과 같았다. 1. 모년령(母年齡), 임신회수(姙娠回數), 임신기간(姙娠其間), 출산시체중등(出産時體重等)의 제요인(諸要因)은 주산기사망(周産基死亡)에 대(對)하여 통계적(統計的)으로 유의(有意)한 영향을 미치고 있어 $25{\sim}29$세(歲)의 연령군에서, 2번째 임신과 2번째의 출산에서 그리고 만삭의 임신 기간에, 출산시체중(出産時體重) $3.50{\sim}3.99kg$사이의 아이에서 그 주산기사망률(周産基死亡率)이 각각 가장 낮았다. 2. 사산(死産)과 초생아사망(初生兒死亡)을 구분(區分)하여 고려해 볼때 사산(死産)은 모성(母性)의 임신력(姙娠歷)과 매우 밀접한 관련이 있는 것으로 사료(思料)되었고 초생아사망(初生兒死亡)은 미숙아(未熟兒)와 이에 관련된 병발이 거의 결정

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Diagnosis on Degree of Saturation Model of COSMOS Affected by Geometric and Detection Conditions and Detector Placements (교통조건, 기하구조 조건 및 검지기 설치위치에 따른 실시간신호제어시스템 포화도 산출방식 진단)

  • KIM, Jun-Young;KIM, Jin Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.81-94
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    • 2016
  • The Korean real-time traffic responsive control systems, Cycle Offset Split Model of Seoul (COSMOS), employs a single theoretical model to estimate the degree-of-saturation (DS) on approaches. However, the deployment of the system has been accomplished without practical consideration of its field performance. This paper delivers a diagnosis study performed to find the relationships yet known on the DS values against the operational conditions unproved in theory but ordinarily observed in field practice. Based on the analysis of the historical log data (476,505 cycles) obtained from the COSMOS server, it was found; (1) full coverage of lane detections should perform better than the sample coverage of detection in ordinary conditions, (2) the sample coverage of detection perform better than the other case with an exclusive bus lane, (3) detection in which a shared lane is involved provide poor estimation of DS, (4) poor DS estimation when a detection lane is adjacent to a shared lane, and (5) the DS values obtained during a day can hardly be stable all time. The findings suggest traffic engineers a progressive direction to move forward for the next real-time traffic control systems.

Development on New Laser Tabbing Process for Modulation of Thin Solar Cell (박형 태양 전지 모듈화를 위한 레이져 태빙 자동화 공정(장비) 개발)

  • No, Donghun;Choi, Chul-June;Cho, Hyun Young;Yu, Jae Min;Kim, JungKeun
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.58.1-58.1
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    • 2010
  • In solar cell module manufacturing, single solar cells has to be joined electrically to strings. Copper stripes coated with tin-silver-copper alloy are joined on screen printed silver of solar cells which is called busbar. The bus bar collects the electrons generated in solar cell and it is connected to the next cell in the conventional module manufacturing by a metal stringer using conventional hot air or infrared lamp soldering systems. For thin solar cells, both soldering methods have disadvantages, which heats up the whole cell to high temperatures. Because of the different thermal expansion coefficient, mechanical stresses are induced in the solar cell. Recently, the trend of solar cell is toward thinner thickness below 180um and thus the risk of breakage of solar cells is increasing. This has led to the demand for new joining processes with high productivity and reduced error rates. In our project, we have developed a new method to solder solar cells with a laser heating source. The soldering process using diode laser with wavelength of 980nm was examined. The diode laser used has a maximum power of 60W and a scanner system is used to solder dimension of 6" solar cell and the beam travel speed is optimized. For clamping copper stripe to solar cell, zirconia(ZrO)coated iron pin-spring system is used to clamp both joining parts during a scanner system is traveled. The hot plate temperature that solar cell is positioned during lasersoldering process is optimized. Also, conventional solder joints after $180^{\circ}C$ peel tests are compared to the laser soldering methods. Microstructures in welded zone shows that the diffusion zone between solar cell and metal stripes is better formed than inIR soldering method. It is analyzed that the laser solder joints show no damages to the silicon wafer and no cracks beneath the contact. Peel strength between 4N and 5N are measured, with much shorter joining time than IR solder joints and it is shown that the use of laser soldering reduced the degree of bending of solar cell much less than IR soldering.

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An Alternative Evaluation Model for Benefit Measurement of Public Transportation by the Open of Urban Railway: Seoul Metro Line 9 (도시 철도개통에 따른 대중교통이용 편익측정을 위한 대안적 평가모델 : 지하철 9호선을 사례로)

  • Joo, Yong-Jin
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2011
  • In accordance with low carbon and green growth paradigm, a subway is one of major public transit systems for resolving traffic congestion and decreasing traffic accidents. In addition, as subway networks expand, passengers' travel pattern in the subway network change and consequently affect the urban structure. Generally, new subway route has been planned and developed, mainly considering a travel demand forecast. However, it is desired to conduct an empirical analysis on the forecast model regarding change of travel accessibility and passenger demand pattern according to new subway line. Therefore, in this paper, an alternative method, developed based upon a spatial syntax model, is proposed for evaluating new subway route in terms of passenger's mobility and network accessibility. In a case study, we constructed subway network data, mainly targeting the no 9 subway line opened in 2009. With an axial-map analysis, we calculated spatial characteristics to describe topological movement interface. We then analyzed actual modal shift and change on demand of passengers through the number of subway passenger between subway stations and the number of passenger according to comparative bus line from Smart Card to validate suggested methods. Results show that the proposed method provides quantitative means of visualizing passenger flow in subway route planning and of analyzing the time-space characteristics of network. Also, it is expected that the proposed method can be utilized for predicting a passengers' pattern and its impact on public transportation.

A Study on Utilization of GNSS and Spatial Image for River Site Decision Supporting (하천 현장업무 의사지원을 위한 GNSS와 공간영상 활용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Hyeon-Cheol;Choung, Yun-Jae;Jo, Myung-Hee
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.118-129
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    • 2011
  • This Study has developed the information system of the rivers based on 3D image GIS by converging the latest information technology of GIS(Geographic Information System), RS(Remote Sensing), GNSS(Global Navigation Satellite System), aerial laser survey(LiDAR) with real time network technology in order to understand the current situation of all the four major rivers and support the administrative management system. The said information system acquires the high resolution aerial photographs of 25cm, aerial laser survey and water depth surveying data to express precise space information on the whole Youngsan River which is the leading project site out of the four river sites. Monitoring the site is made available on the transporting means such as a helicopter, boat or a bus in connection with locational coordinate tracking skill for the moving objects in real time using GNSS. It makes monitoring all the information on the four river job sites available at a glance, which can obtain the reliability of the people to such vast areas along with enhancing the recognition of the people by publicity of four Rivers Revitalizing Project and reports thereof.

A Heuristic Optimal Path Search Considering Cumulative Transfer Functions (누적환승함수를 고려한 경험적 최적경로탐색 방안)

  • Shin, Seongil;Baek, Nam Cheol;Nam, Doo Hee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.60-67
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    • 2016
  • In cumulative transfer functions, as number of transfer increase, the impact of individual transfer to transfer cost increase linearly or non linearly. This function can effectively explain various passengers's travel behavior who choose their travel routes in integrated transit line networks including bus and railway modes. Using the function, it is possible to simulate general situations such that even though more travel times are expected, less number of transfer routes are preferred. However, because travel cost with cumulative transfer function is known as non additive cost function types in route search algorithms, finding an optimal route in integrated transit networks is confronted by the insolvable enumeration of all routes in many cases. This research proposes a methodology for finding an optimal path considering cumulative transfer function. For this purpose, the reversal phenomenon of optimal path generated in route search process is explained. Also a heuristic methodology for selecting an optimal route among multiple routes predefined by the K path algorithm. The incoming link based entire path deletion method is adopted for finding K ranking path thanks to the merit of security of route optimality condition. Through case studies the proposed methodology is discussed in terms of the applicability of real situations.

In vitro micropropagation of Philodendron cannifolium (기내배양에 의한 Philodendron cannifolium의 대량번식)

  • Han, Bong-Hee;Park, Byoung-Mo
    • Journal of Plant Biotechnology
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.203-208
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    • 2008
  • In order to micropropagate uniform plantlets of Philodendron cannifolium in vitro, the shoot tips were cultured on MS media supplemented with $0.5{\sim}10.0$ mg/L BA or $0.05{\sim}0.1$ mg/L thidiazuron(TDZ). The adventitious multi-bud clusters from basal part of shoots were formed on MS media containing $2.0{\sim}5.0$ mg/L BA or $0.05{\sim}0.1$ mg/L TDZ. But the shoots grown on MS media with TDZ showed necrosis by the lack of chlorophyll. The adventitious multi-bus clusters were cut into $5{\sim}7$ mm sections and cultured on MS media containing BA and TDZ for shoot proliferation. Shoots were proliferated vigorously on MS medium supplemented with $1.0{\sim}3.0$ mg/L BA with up to 30 shoots. But abnormally swollen hard calli were formed from basal parts of shoots on MS media with TDZ and high concentration of BA(10.0 mg/L). The proliferated shoots on same media also showed necrosis by the lack of chlorophyll. The shoot growth and rooting were favorable on MS media containing $0.5{\sim}2.0$ mg/L IBA. The rooted plantlets were acclimatizated effectively in soil mixed with perlite 1:vermiculite 1 or vermiculite alone. Fifteen mL of liquid medium containing 10 g/L activated charcoal and 30 g/L sucrose were added in same vessels after small shoots were proliferated to stimulate shoot growth and rooting. After 8 weeks in culture, the shoots were dipped into high concentration of IBA solution. and planted in soil mexed with perlite 1:vermiculite 1. The shoot growth and rooting were favorable in dipping treatments of $500{\sim}2,000$ ppm IBA solutions for 10 sec.