• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.11 no.2
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• pp.61-71
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• 2009

Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from $4^{\circ}C$ to $10^{\circ}C$ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.28-35
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• 2006

An accurate prediction of budburst in grapevines is indispensable for vineyard frost warning system operations in spring because cold tolerance depends heavily on phonology. However, existing frost warning systems utilize only daily minimum temperature forecasts since there is no way to estimate the site-specific phonology of grapevines. A budburst estimation model based on thermal time was used to project budburst dates of two grapevine cultivars (Kyoho and Campbell Early), and advisories were issued depending on phonology as well as temperature. A 'warning' is issued if two conditions are met: the forecasted daily minimum temperature falls below $-1.5^{\circ}C$ and the estimated phonology is within the budburst period. A 'watch' is issued for a temperature range of -1.5 to $+1.5^{\circ}C$ with the same phonology condition. Validation experiments were done at 8 vineyards in Anseong in spring 2005, and the results showed a good agreement with the observations. This method was applied to the climatological normal year (1971-2000) to determine sites with high frost risk at a 30 m grid cell resolution. Among 608,585 grid cells constituting Anseong, 1,059 cells were identified as high risk for growing Kyoho and 2,788 cells for Campbell Early.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.11-18
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• 2012

Daily temperature data produced by harmonic analysis of monthly climate summary have been used as an input to plant phenology model. This study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the harmonic based daily temperature data in prediction of major phenological developments and to apply the results in improving decision support for agricultural production in relation to the climate change scenarios. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data for a climatological normal year (Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 1971-2000) were produced by harmonic analysis of the monthly climate means for Seoul weather station. The data were used as inputs to a thermal time - based phenology model to predict dormancy, budburst, and flowering of Japanese cherry in Seoul. Daily temperature measurements at Seoul station from 1971 to 2000 were used to run the same model and the results were compared with the harmonic data case. Leaving no information on annual variation aside, the harmonic based simulation showed 25 days earlier release from endodormancy, 57 days longer period for maximum cold tolerance, delayed budburst and flowering by 14 and 13 days, respectively, compared with the simulation based on the observed data. As an alternative to the harmonic data, 30 years daily temperature data were generated by a stochastic process (SIMMETEO + WGEN) using climatic summary of Seoul station for 1971-2000. When these data were used to simulate major phenology of Japanese cherry for 30 years, deviations from the results using observed data were much less than the harmonic data case: 6 days earlier dormancy release, 10 days reduction in maximum cold tolerance period, only 3 and 2 days delay in budburst and flowering, respectively. Inter-annual variation in phenological developments was also in accordance with the observed data. If stochastically generated temperature data could be used in agroclimatic mapping and zoning, more reliable and practical aids will be available to climate change adaptation policy or decision makers.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.206-212
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• 2009

We investigated the patterns of freeze injury in dormant 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach fruit by observing the extent of browning and germination of the branches that were treated with freezing temperature sets simulating the process of natural freezing incidences in orchards. Under the treatment of freezing temperature of $-15^{\circ}C$, the browning ratios were 15% for flower bud and less than 3% for both leaf bud and cambium. Under the $-20^{\circ}C$ treatment, the browning ratios were 40% for both flower and leaf buds and 1% for cambium. The browning ratios were 86%, 68% and 40% respectively for flower bud, leaf bud, and cambium under the $-25^{\circ}C$ treatment. All the samples showed 100% browning ratio under the $-30^{\circ}C$ treatment. The budburst ratios of leaf buds were 85%, 66%, 32%, and 0% under the -15, -20, -25 and $-30^{\circ}C$ treatments, respectively. The branches of peach fruit treated with the same freezing temperature showed different responses depending on the sampling date. In January the browning ratio was low and the budburst ratio was high whereas in February the opposite was the case, showing vulnerability of peach trees to low temperature after endo-dormancy release.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.116-124
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• 2006

Remarkable winter season warming has been observed in East Asian countries during the last century. Accordingly, significant effects on dormancy and the resulting budburst of deciduous trees are expected. However phenological observations are rare and insufficient compared with the long-time climate records in the same region. A chill-day accumulation, which can be estimated from daily maximum and minimum temperature, is expected to make a reasonable proxy for dormancy depth of temperate zone fruit trees. To simulate dormancy depth during 1921-2004, a chill-day model parameterized for 'Campbell Early' grapevine, which is the major cultivar grown virtually anywhere in South Korea, was applied to daily temperature data at 8 locations in South Korea. The calculations showed that the chilling requirement for breaking endo-dormancy of this grapevine cultivar can be satisfied by mid-January to late February in South Korea, and the date was delayed going either northward or southward from the 'Daegu-Jeonju' line crossing the middle of South Korea in the east-west direction. Maximum length of the cold tolerant period (the number of days between endo-dormancy release and forced dormancy release) showed the same spatial pattern. When we divide the 83 years into 3 periods (I: 1921-1950, II: 1951-1980, and III: 1981-2004) and get the average of each period, dormancy release date of period III was accelerated by as much as 15 days compared with that of period I at all locations except Jeju (located in the southernmost island with subtropical climate) where an average15-day delay was predicted. The cold- tolerant period was also shortened at 6 out of 8 locations. As a result, budburst of 'Campbell Early' in spring was accelerated by 6 to 10 days at most locations, while inter-annual variation in budburst dates was increased at all locations. The earlier budburst after the 1970s was due to (1) warming in winter resulting in earlier dormancy release (Incheon, Mokpo, Gangneung, and Jeonju), (2) warming in early spring accelerating regrowth after breaking dormancy (Busan and Jeju), and (3) both of them (Seoul and Daegu).

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.55-60
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• 2013

BACKGROUND: The buds of persimmon trees are susceptible to cold damage, often with the late frost, at the time of budburst. This study was conducted to determine effect of the cold damage on shoot and fruit growth the current season. METHODS AND RESULTS: 'Fuyu' trees, grown in 50-L pots, were placed for 1 h at $-2.2{\pm}0.5$, $-2.6{\pm}0.5$, or $-3.0{\pm}0.5^{\circ}C$ within a cold storage, at their budburst on April 5. Some trees under ambient temperature at $10-17^{\circ}C$ served as the control. Cold damage of the buds containing flower buds was 54% at $-2.2^{\circ}C$, and significantly increased to 95% at $-3.0^{\circ}C$. The bud damage included the complete death of all, complete death of main buds only, or the late and deformed shoot growth in the spring. Number of flower buds in early May dramatically decreased as the damage ratio increased. Since the thinning of flower buds in mid-May and fruitlets in early July was done in no or slightly damaged trees, the final number of fruits and yield did not decrease compared with the control when the damage increased by 60% and 70%, respectively. Average fruit weight and skin coloration tended to be better with increasing bud damage. Shoot growth was more vigorous in those trees whose buds were severely damaged by low temperature. CONCLUSION(S): Shoot growth and the yield may depend on the number of flower buds and percent fruit set after the cold damage.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.213-218
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• 2014

Effects of elevated $CO_2$ on leaf phenology of Quercus acutissima were examined using open-top chambers, which had ambient and elevated $CO_2$ concentrations (ambient ${\times}1.4$, ambient ${\times}1.8$). To analyze the effect of chamber, non-treatment block was established near outside of the chambers. In 2013, budburst, leaf unfolding, coloring, and shedding were surveyed, and spring phenology was surveyed in 2014. Thermal sum (base temperature $+5^{\circ}C$) of each phenological event occurred was recorded. In addition, bud samples were collected and analyzed for carbohydrate contents in March 2014. Elevated $CO_2$ concentration advanced budburst and leaf unfolding, and delayed shedding in 2013. However, in 2014, the temperature of the spring season was high, and there was no significant effect of elevated $CO_2$ concentration on spring phenology. Carbohydrates content, such as starch, total non-structural carbohydrate and total soluble sugar, were significantly increased in response to elevated $CO_2$ concentration. It has been proposed that elevated $CO_2$ concentration could extend the growing season of temperate species with increased possibility of frost damage due to early bud opening and leaf unfolding. However, our analysis showed that the increased carbohydrate concentration in bud under elevated $CO_2$ would reduce the possibility of early spring frost damage by acting as cryoprotectant.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.213-220
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• 2009

In order to predict the risk of freeze injury for 'Changhowon Hwangdo' peach trees, we used the dormancy depth (i.e., the daily chill unit accumulation during the overwintering period) as a proxy for the short-term, physiological tolerance to freezing temperatures. A Chill-days model was employed and its parameters such as base temperature and chilling requirement were optimized for peach trees based on the 12 observational experiments during the 2008-2009 winter. The model predicted the flowering dates much closer to the observations than other models without considering dormancy depth, showing the strength of employing dormancy depth into consideration. To derive empirical equations for calculating the probabilistic freeze risk, the dormancy depth was then combined with the browning ratio and the budburst ratio of frozen peach fruit branches. Given the exact date and the predicted minimum temperature, the equations calculate the probability of freeze damages such as a failure in budburst or tissue browning. This method of employing dormancy depth in addition to freezing temperature would be useful in locating in advance the risky areas of freezing injury for peach trees production under the projected climate change.

• Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.188-193
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• 2014

The sap outflow characteristics of Juglans sinensis and J. mandshurica were investigated to evaluate the optimum pruning period of walnut tree that there is a sap spill on dormant. The total period of sap outflow were 34 days for both J. sinensis and J. mandshurica. Total amount of sap outflow per tree in J. sinensis and J. mandshurica were 2,922 mL/tree and 3,135 mL/tree, respectively and the period of sap outflow and non sap outflow between two species were similar. ANOVA analysis showed that the amount of sap outflow was significant differences with day of sap outflow but there were no significant differences between species. From the correlation analysis between air-temperature and sap outflow, daily minimum temperature showed a positive correlation at the 1% level of significance (r=0.56 and r=0.46) for both J. sinensis and J. mandshurica. When branch of walnut tree that diameter is 5 cm cut on the period of sap outflow, the sap flowed down the longest period (48 days) but the sap outflow was not observed after budburst. Therefore, our study supported that the pruning have to avoid the period of sap outflow to reduce sap outflow of walnut tree.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.117-129
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• 2021

In this review, we aimed to synthesize the current knowledge on the observed and projected effects of climate change on the ecosystems of Korea (i.e., the Republic of Korea (ROK) or South Korea), as well as the main causes of vulnerability and options for adaptation in these ecosystems based on a range of ecological and biogeographical data. To this end, we compiled a set of peer-reviewed papers published since 2014. We found that publication of climate-related studies on plants has decreased in the field of plant phenology and physiology, whereas such publication has rapidly increased in plant and animal community ecology, reflecting the range shifts and abundance change that are occurring under climate change. Plant phenology studies showed that climate change has increased growing seasons by advancing the timing of flowering and budburst while delaying the timing of leafing out. Community ecology studies indicated that the future ranges of cold-adapted plants and animals could shrink or shift toward northern and high-elevation areas, whereas the ranges of warm-adapted organisms could expand and/or shift toward the areas that the aforementioned cold-adapted biota previously occupied. This review provides useful information and new insights that will improve understanding of climate change effects on the ecosystems of Korea. Moreover, it will serve as a reference for policy-makers seeking to establish future sectoral adaptation options for protection against climate change.