• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.99-99
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• 2022

Jeju island has a humid subtropical climate and this climate zone is expected to migrate northward toward the main land, Korea Peninsula, as temperature increases are accelerated. Vegetation type has been inevitably shifted along with the climatic change, having more subtropical species native in southeast Asia or even in Africa. With the forest composition shift, it becomes more important than ever to analyze the water balance of the forest wihth the ongoing as well as upcoming climate change. Here, we implemented the Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model (ED2) by initializing the key variables using forest inventory data (diameter at breast height in 2012). Out of 10,000 parameter sets randomly generated from prior distribution distributions of each parameter (i.e., Monte-Carlo Method), we selected four behavioral parameter sets using remote-sensing data (LAI-MOD15A2H, GPP-MOD17A2H, and ET-MOD16A2, 8-days at 500-m during 2001-2005), and evaluated the performances using eddy-covariance carbon flux data (2012 Mar.-Sep. 30-min) and remote sensing data between 2006-2020. We simulated each of the four RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from four climate forcings (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5 from ISIMIP2b). Based on those 64 simulation sets, we estimate the changes in water balance resulting from the forest composition shift, and also uncertainty in the estimates and the sensitivity of the estimates to the parameters, climate forcings, and RCP scenarios.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.63-72
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• 2016

An expected-discounted cost model based on RRP(Renewal Reward Process), referred to as a stochastic decision model, has been developed to estimate the optimal period of in-depth inspection which is one of critical issues in the life-cycle maintenance management of harbor structures such as rubble-mound breakwaters. A mathematical model, which is a function of the probability distribution of the service-life, has been formulated by simultaneously adopting PIM(Periodic Inspection and Maintenance) and CBIM(Condition-Based Inspection and Maintenance) policies so as to resolve limitations of other models, also all the costs in the model associated with monitoring and repair have been discounted with time. From both an analytical solution derived in this paper under the condition in which a failure rate function is a constant and the sensitivity analyses for the variety of different distribution functions and conditions, it has been confirmed that the present solution is more versatile than the existing solution suggested in a very simplified setting. Additionally, even in that case which the probability distribution of the service-life is estimated through the stochastic process, the present model is of course also well suited to interpret the nonlinearity of deterioration process. In particular, a MCS(Monte-Carlo Simulation)-based sample path method has been used to evaluate the parameters of a damage intensity function in stochastic process. Finally, the present stochastic decision model can satisfactorily be applied to armor units of rubble mound breakwaters. The optimal periods of in-depth inspection of rubble-mound breakwaters can be determined by minimizing the expected total cost rate with respect to the behavioral feature of damage process, the level of serviceability limit, and the consequence of that structure.

• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.55-61
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• 2022

Currently police and fire departments use a Network/Wifi/GPS based emergency location positioning system established by mobile carriers to directly link with the device of the people who request the rescue to accurately position the expected location in the call area. However in the case of mountain rescue it is difficult to rescue the victim in golden time because the location of the search area cannot be limited when the victim is located in a radio shadow area of the mountain or the device power is off and this situation become worse if victim fail to report 911 by himself due to the injury. In this paper, we are expected to solve the previous problem by propose the mobile telecommunication forensic simulator consist of time series of cell information, human mobility model which include some general and specific features (age, gender, behavioral characteristics of victim, etc.) and intelligent infer system. The results of analysis appear in heatmap of polygons on the map based on the probability of the expected location information of the victim. With this technology we are expected to contribute to rapid and accurate lifesaving by reducing the search area of rescue team.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.8-13
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• 2017

This study was conducted to develop an agent-based computing platform enabling simulation of on-farm produce contamination by enteric foodborne pathogens, which is herein called PPMCS (Preharvest Produce Microbial Contamination Simulator). Also, fecal contamination of preharvest produce was simulated using PPMCS. Although Agent-based Modeling and Simulation, the tool applied in this study, is rather popular in where socio-economical human behaviors or ecological fate of animals in their niche are to be predicted, the incidence of on-farm produce contamination which are thought to be sporadic has never been simulated using this tool. The agents in PPMCS including crop, animal as a source of fecal contamination, and fly as a vector spreading the fecal contamination are given their intrinsic behaviors that are set to be executed at certain probability. Once all these agents are on-set following the intrinsic behavioral rules, consequences as the sum of all the behaviors in the system can be monitored real-time. When fecal contamination of preharvest produce was simulated in PPMCS as numbers of animals, flies, and initially contaminated plants change, the number of animals intruding cropping area affected most on the number of contaminated plants at harvest. For further application, the behaviors and variables of the agents are adjustable depending on user's own scenario of interest. This feature allows PPMCS to be utilized in where different simulating conditions are tested.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.149-158
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• 2002

For the purpose of preciously describing real time traffic pattern in urban road network, dynamic network loading(DNL) models able to simulate traffic behavior are required. A number of different methods are available, including macroscopic, microscopic dynamic network models, as well as analytical model. Equivalency minimization problem and Variation inequality problem are the analytical models, which include explicit mathematical travel cost function for describing traffic behaviors on the network. While microscopic simulation models move vehicles according to behavioral car-following and cell-transmission. However, DNL models embedding such travel time function have some limitations ; analytical model has lacking of describing traffic characteristics such as relations between flow and speed, between speed and density Microscopic simulation models are the most detailed and realistic, but they are difficult to calibrate and may not be the most practical tools for large-scale networks. To cope with such problems, this paper develops a new DNL model appropriate for dynamic traffic assignment(DTA), The model is combined with vertical queue model representing vehicles as vertical queues at the end of links. In order to compare and to assess the model, we use a contrived example network. From the numerical results, we found that the DNL model presented in the paper were able to describe traffic characteristics with reasonable amount of computing time. The model also showed good relationship between travel time and traffic flow and expressed the feature of backward turn at near capacity.

• Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.312-317
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• 2015

Seafarers can confront to evacuate from the ship with many reasons such as collision, grounding and fire accident. It believes that evacuation time from ship is very important element in order to increase survival rate in the contingency circumstance, however narrow and complex structure of ship is one of obstacle element against prompt evacuation. Taking into consideration the unique structure of ship compared to the structure of other facilities, speed of fire propagation on board ship is faster than the same size of other type facilities. Therefore, measures to prompt evacuation are required. But it comes with the behavioral constraints of the crews and passengers of the nature of operating in a complex structure with narrow vessels. Therefore, in this study, we propose a formula to be analyzed by theoretical approach and simulation methods to improve the survival rate for the crew and passenger of the ship through the ship's structural modification. We analyzed the temperature rise and visibility which are the most influential effects on the life safety in the event of fire by using a three-dimensional analysis of sight-only program Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) as analytical tools.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.73-82
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• 2018

Purpose - Unstable vegetable prices have been one of the major concerns in Korean agricultural and food marketing system. The Korean government has implemented a number of policy instruments, including government purchasing programs in order to alleviate fluctuations in vegetable prices. The economic impact of policy instruments has been assessed based on the average monthly price change rate before and after the implementation of the policy. However, this approach failed to provide a net impact of policy measures on price stabilization in the vegetable markets, as policy impacts could not be successfully distinguished from other effects on price changes in the vegetable market. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the net impact of the government purchasing program on the price volatility of dried red pepper which is considered one of the major vegetables in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - This study develops a monthly dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean dried red pepper market. Behavioral equations in the model were estimated by OLS and synthetic method based on the annual and monthly time series data from 1993 to 2015. The model is first simulated to yield actual dried red pepper market conditions in 2015 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming that there were no government purchases of dried red pepper in 2015. Results - According to the ex-post scenario analysis using the developed model, without the government procurements in 2015, the average monthly price change rate and the value of coefficient of variation of dried red pepper in 2015 would be respectably 7.9 percent and 0.10. It is relatively higher than the actual average monthly price change rate and the value of coefficient of variation of dried red pepper in 2015 which were respectively 1.7 percent and 0.06. Conclusions - The ex-post simulation results in this study shows that if there were no government purchases of dried red pepper in 2015, the dried red pepper market would have had much higher volatile price movements. The results of this study would provide useful information for future price stabilization policy of vegetable markets in Korea.

• Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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• v.16 no.3
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• pp.39-60
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• 2006

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of two different characteristics of music(tempo) and advertising photograph(type) in a fashion store on consumers' emotional responses and approach behavior and to suggest competitive in-store atmospheric strategies. To test the conceptual model, this study used a video simulation method. Researchers selected a fashion casual wear retail store for young people and videotaped to provide realistic store settings. Two different levels of background music(fast, slow) and advertising photograph(sexy, cheerful) were inserted into the video clip generating four stimuli. Including a stimulus for the control group, 5 video clips were created. A total of 289 subjects answered the questionnaire after viewing a two-minute video clips. The results are as follows: First, advertising photograph in a store had a significant effect on consumers' in-store emotional state, whereas musical tempo did not. Second, the effect of in-store consumers' emotional state on behavioral reponses were investigated. Results showed that consumers' positive emotional state lead to consumers' approach behavior. The results of this study indicated that background music and advertising photograph in a fashion store affected consumers' in-store emotional state, and ultimately these affected consumers' positive approach behavior. Thus retailer should try to create a pleasant store environment using effective store atmospheric factors like background music and advertising photograph.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.237-248
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• 2017

Frequent terror or military attack by explosion, impact, fire accidents have occurred recently. These attacks and incidents raised public concerns and anxiety of potential terrorist attacks on important infrastructures. However, structural behavioral researches on prestressed concrete (PSC) infrastructures such as Prestressed Concrete Containment Vessel (PCCV) and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) storage tanks under extreme loading are significantly lacking at this time. Also, researches on possible secondary fire scenarios after terror and bomb explosion has not been performed yet. Therefore, a study on PSC structural behavior from an blast-induced fire scenario was undertaken. To evaluate the blast-fire combined resistance capacity and its protective performance of bi-directional unbonded PSC member, blast-fire tests were carried out on $1,400mm{\times}1,000mm{\times}300mm$ PSC specimens. Blast loading tests were performed by the detonation of 25 kg ANFO explosive charge at 1.0 m standoff distance. Also, fire and blast-fire combined loading were tested using RABT fire loading curve. The test results are discussed in detail in the paper. The results can be used as basic research references for related research areas, which include protective design simulation under blast-fire combined loading.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.3-20
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• 1990

The multisector model is designed to analyze and forecast structural change in industrial output, employment, capital and relative price as well as macroeconomic change in aggregate income, interest rate, etc. This model has 25 industrial sectors, containing about 1,300 equations. Therefore, this model is characterized by detailed structural disaggregation at the sectoral level. Individual industries are based on many of the economic relationships in the model. This is what distinguishes a multisector model from a macroeconomic model. Each industry is a behavioral agent in the model for industrial investment, employment, prices, wages, and intermediate demand. The strength of the model lies in the simulating the interactions between different industries. The result of its simulation will be introduced in the next paper. In this paper, we only introduce the structure of the multisector model and the coefficients of the equations. The multisector model is a dynamic model-that is, it solves year by year into the future using its own solutions for earlier years. The development of a dynamic, year-by-year solution allows us to combine the change in structure with a consideration of the dynamic adjustment required. These dynamics have obvious advantages in the use of the multisector model for industrial planning. The multisector model is a medium-term and long-term model. Whereas a short-term model can taken the labor supply and capital stock as given, a long-term model must acknowledge that these are determined endogenously. Changes in the medium-term can be analyzed in the context of long-term structural changes. The structure of this model can be summarized as follow. The difference in domestic and world prices affects industrial structure and the pattern of international trade; domestic output and factor price affect factor demand; factor demand and factor price affect industrial income; industrial income and relative price affect industrial consumption. Technical progress, as measured in terms of total factor productivity and relative price affect input-output coefficients; input-output coefficients and relative price determine the industrial input cost; input cost and import price determine domestic price. The differences in productivity and wage growth among different industries affect the relative price.