• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.50 no.3
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• pp.349-371
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• 2022

Purpose: Compared to the rapid growth rate of the domestic automotive LED industry so far, the predictive analysis method for demand forecasting or market outlook was insufficient. Accordingly, product characteristics are analyzed through the life trend of LEDs for automotive exterior lamps and the relative strengths of p and q using the Bass model. Also, future demands are predicted. Methods: We used sales data of a leading company in domestic market of automotive LEDs. Considering the autocorrelation error term of this data, parameters m, p, and q were estimated through the modified estimation method of OLS and the NLS(Nonlinear Least Squares) method, and the optimal method was selected by comparing prediction error performance such as RMSE. Future annual demands and cumulative demands were predicted through the growth curve obtained from Bass-NLS model. In addition, various nonlinear growth curve models were applied to the data to compare the Bass-NLS model with potential market demand, and an optimal model was derived. Results: From the analysis, the parameter estimation results by Bass-NLS obtained m=1338.13, p=0.0026, q=0.3003. If the current trend continues, domestic automotive LED market is predicted to reach its maximum peak in 2021 and the maximum demand is $102.23M. Potential market demand was $1338.13M. In the nonlinear growth curve model analysis, the Gompertz model was selected as the optimal model, and the potential market size was $2864.018M. Conclusion: It is expected that the Bass-NLS method will be applied to LED sales data for automotive to find out the characteristics of the relative strength of q/p of products and to be used to predict current demand and future cumulative demand.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.413-416
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• 2006

신제품이나 서비스의 수요 예측을 Bass 확산 모형을 토대로 수행할 때의 가장 큰 문제점은모형의 파라미터 추정에 필요한 데이터가 충분치 않다는 것이다. 따라서 Bass 확산 모형의 핵심적인 두 파라미터인 혁신 계수(p)와 모방 계수(q)의 추정을 시도할 때, 어느 정도의 데이터 개수가 요구되는 지를 파악하는 것은 매우 현실적인 중요성을 갖는 문제이다. 이제까지의 연구는 주로 기존의 판매 데이터를 토대로 Bass 모형의 파라미터를 추정할 때, 생기는 다양한 문제점 파악에 집중되었다. 시뮬레이션의 경우는 Bass 모형에 랜덤 오차를 추가하여 실시하였다. 이 경우 데이터 개수가 계수추정에 미치는 영향은 도출되나 각 계수별 민감도 분석이 제대로 이루어지지 못하는 한계를 가지고 있다, 따라서 본 논문에서는 시뮬레이션에서 예측치를 발생시킬 때 랜덤 오차 대신, 혁신 계수와 확산 계수의 변동을 주는 방법을 도입한다. 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, p 변동보다는 q 변동이 예측치의 오차에 대해 보다 중요하다. 둘째, 오차가 잠재수요의 30%이하로 떨어지기 위해서는 수요가 최대로 도달하는 시점이 $t^*$ 일 경우, $t^*\;+1$까지 데이터가 요구된다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.205-211
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• 2020

The method of predicting the future may be predicted by technical characteristics or technical performance. Therefore, technology prediction is used in the field of strategic research that can produce economic and social benefits. In this study, we predicted the future market through the study of how to predict the future with these technical characteristics. The future prediction method was studied through the prediction of the time when the market occupied according to the demand of special product. For forecasting market demand, we proposed the future forecasting model through comparison of representative quantitative analysis methods such as CAGR model, BASS model, Logistic model and Gompertz Growth Curve. This study combines Rogers' theory of innovation diffusion to predict when products will spread to the market. As a result of the research, we developed a methodology to predict when a particular product will mature in the future market through the spread of various factors for the special product to occupy the market. However, there are limitations in reducing errors in expert judgment to predict the market.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.42 no.3
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• pp.222-230
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• 2016

As the global game market has been more competitive, it has been important to analyze success factors of game products. In this paper, we applied a Bass Diffusion Model and Clustering Analysis to identify the success factors of games based on data from Steam, an international game platform. By using a diffusion model, we first categorize game products into two groups : successful and unsuccessful games. Then, each group has been analyzed by using clustering analysis based on product features such as genres, price, and minimum system requirements. As a result, success factors of a game have been identified. The result shows that customers in game industry appreciate sophisticated contents. Unlike many other industries, price is not considered as a key success factor in the game industry. Expecially, advanced independent video games (commonly referred to as indie games) with killer contents show competitiveness in the market.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2923-2934
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• 2009

This paper presents study on technological forecasting of Next-Generation Display technology. Next-Generation Display technology is one of the emerging technologies lately. So databases on patent documents of this technology were analyzed first. And patent analysis was performed for finding out present technology trend. And the forecast for this technology was made by growth curves which were obtained from forecast models using patent documents. In previous study, Gompertz, Logistic, Bass were used for forecasting diffusion of demand in market. Gompertz, Logistic models which were often used for technological forecasting, too. So, two models were applied in this study. But Gompertz, Logistic models only consider internal effect of diffusion. And it is difficult to estimate maximum value of growth in two models. So, Bass model which considers both internal effect and external effect of diffusion was also applied. And maximum value of growth in Gompertz, Logistic models was estimated by Bass model.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.39-52
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• 1988

This study suggests the diffusion models to predict the spread pattern of telecommunications services. The extended models containing both (either) price and (or) income varible are offered on the basis of Bass model. At the empirical test using Korean telephone data, the models with either price or income varible are the best forecasting model under apriori selected econometric criteria.

• Information Systems Review
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.91-104
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• 2017

This study aims to understand the differences in the media characteristics of two types of media, namely, Blog and Twitter, as well as in their factors that affect product information diffusion. To achieve these objectives, the information diffusion pattern is identified by analyzing the number of product-related posts in each media based on the Bass model. The analysis results revealed that the information diffusion speed of hedonic goods was faster than that of utilitarian goods. Regardless of product type, Twitter had a higher imitation effect than Blog, while Blog had a higher innovation effect than Twitter. The results implied that users of Blog tended to find information by themselves while those of Twitter relied more on the others' evaluation than their own subjective evaluations of innovations.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.125-132
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• 2009

The paradigm of economy has been transformed into knowledge based economic paradigm in 21th century. Analysis of patent trend is one of the strategic methods for increasing their patent competitive power. However, this method is just presenting statistical data about patent trend or qualitative analysis about some core technology. In this paper, we forecast technology diffusion using patent information for more progressive analysis. We make an experiment with bass model and logistic model and make use of patent data about information-security technology for NCW as input data. We conclude that the logistic model is more efficient for forecasting and this technology is approaching to the age of technology maturity.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.117-125
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• 2016

In this research, economic analysis of Integrated Information System for Nano-convergence Industy (hereafter 'NANOIN'), which was developed and has been in operation by Organization of Nano-convergence Industrial Cooperation, is conducted. For this purpose, the research has been carried out in the following order. First, NANOIN user's maximum willingness-to-pay is estimated using contingent valuation method, the number for NANOIN users is estimated using Bass Diffusion Model, and annual benefit from NANOIN is estimated. Next, annual cost from NANOIN is estimated using annual budget for NANOIN related planned activities. Finally, economic value of NANOIN is evaluated using economic analysis applied to the estimated annual NANOIN benefit and cost. From the economic analysis, it is found that NANOIN has some economic value. It is expected that the procedures suggested in this research can help to systematically evaluate economic value for public goods which have not only uncertain benefit from user's side but also uncertain demand just like NANOIN.

• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2004.05a
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• pp.532-535
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• 2004

현재 국내 초고속 인터넷 인프라는 세계 최고 수준으로 xDSL 계열의 디지털 가입자 회선과 HFC(Hybrid Fiber Coxial) 망을 활용한 케이블 모뎀이 시장을 거의 차지하고 치열한 경쟁을 보이고 있다. 하지만 서비스 가입자 수준은 거의 포화점에 다다른 것으로 보이며 앞으로 속도를 비롯한 품질 면에서 진보된 차세대 인터넷 접속 서비스 구축을 계획하고 있다. NGN은 유무선 통합을 통한 다양한 서비스를 제공을 목표로 정부나 기업에서 추진 중은 차세대 통합 정보통신 인프라이다. 이 NGN을 실현시킬 수 있는 가입자 망 기술로서는 FTTH가 유력하게 거론되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 초고속 인터넷 서비스 수요에 대한 체계적인 분석을 통하여 NGN 서비스 특성을 반영하는 적절한 예측 모형을 제시하였다. FTTH 가입자 수요를 예측하기 위해 본 논문에서는 Bass 모형의 변형인 변형된 공존 Bass 모형을 이용하였다.