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http://dx.doi.org/10.14400/JDC.2020.18.2.205

Forecasting methodology of future demand market  

Oh, Sang-young (Department of Business Administration, U1 University)
Publication Information
Journal of Digital Convergence / v.18, no.2, 2020 , pp. 205-211 More about this Journal
Abstract
The method of predicting the future may be predicted by technical characteristics or technical performance. Therefore, technology prediction is used in the field of strategic research that can produce economic and social benefits. In this study, we predicted the future market through the study of how to predict the future with these technical characteristics. The future prediction method was studied through the prediction of the time when the market occupied according to the demand of special product. For forecasting market demand, we proposed the future forecasting model through comparison of representative quantitative analysis methods such as CAGR model, BASS model, Logistic model and Gompertz Growth Curve. This study combines Rogers' theory of innovation diffusion to predict when products will spread to the market. As a result of the research, we developed a methodology to predict when a particular product will mature in the future market through the spread of various factors for the special product to occupy the market. However, there are limitations in reducing errors in expert judgment to predict the market.
Keywords
CAGR model; BASS model; Logistic model; Gomperz growth model; Demand forecast model of future market; Rogers' innovation diffusion theory; Maturity of factors; Forecast method of future demand market;
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