• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.21 no.4_spc
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• pp.403-414
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• 2014

Forecasting technology in economic activity is a quite intricate procedure so researchers should grasp the point of the data to use. Diffusion models have been widely used for forecasting market demand and measuring the degree of technology diffusion. However, there is a question that a model, explaining a certain market with goodness of fit, always shows good performance with markets of different conditions. The primary aim of this paper is to explore diffusion models which are frequently used by researchers, and to help readers better understanding on those models. In this study, Logistic, Gompertz and Bass models are used for forecasting Global Wireline Subscribers and the performance of models is measured by Mean Absolute Percentage Error. Logistic model shows better MAPE than the other two. A possible extension of this study may verify which model reflects characteristics of industry better.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.61-74
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to estimate economic value of document delivery services(DDS) at foreign journal supporting center in K University library. For this study, Bass diffusion model, which is widely used in forecasting, especially new product and new service forecasting, was adopted. User survey was also carried out from September 10 to 20, 2007. As a result, useful value(UV) of DDS is estimated about not less than 2,000,000,000 won, and willingness to pay(WTP) is estimated about less than 2,000,000,000 won. This study, economic value analysis at foreign journal supporting center, was limited to DDS, and used methodology for the study is also limited to UV and WTP. Demographic analysis(i.e., sex, age, occupation, educational level) for UV and WTP is also conducted.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.179-197
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• 2005

This study examines market acceptance for DMB service, one of the touted new business models in Korea's next-generation mobile communications service market, using adoption end diffusion of innovation as the theoretical framework. Market acceptance for DMB service was assessed by predicting the demand for the service using the Bass model, and the demand variability over time was then analyzed by integrating the innovation adoption model proposed by Rogers (2003). In our estimation of the Bass model, we derived the coefficient of innovation and coefficient of imitation, using actual diffusion data from the mobile telephone service market. The maximum number of subscribers was estimated based on the result of a survey on satellite DMB service. Furthermore, to test the difference in diffusion pattern between mobile phone service and satellite DMB service, we reorganized the demand data along the diffusion timeline according to Rogers' innovation adoption model, using the responses by survey subjects concerning their respective projected time of adoption. The comparison of the two demand prediction models revealed that diffusion for both took place forming a classical S-curve. Concerning variability in demand for DMB service, our findings, much in agreement with Rogers' view, indicated that demand was highly variable over time and depending on the adopter group. In distinguishing adopters into different groups by time of adoption of innovation, we found that income and lifestyle (opinion leadership, novelty seeking tendency and independent decision-making) were variables with measurable impact. Among the managerial variables, price of reception device, contents type, subscription fees were the variables resulting in statistically significant differences. This study, as an attempt to measure the market acceptance for satellite DMB service, a leading next-generation mobile communications service product, stands out from related studies in that it estimates the nature and level of acceptance for specific customer categories, using theories of innovation adoption and diffusion and based on the result of a survey conducted through one-to-one interviews. The authors of this paper believe that the theoretical framework elaborated in this study and its findings can be fruitfully reused in future attempts to predict demand for new mobile communications service products.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.14 no.spc
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• pp.1232-1255
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• 2011

This paper proposes a model for demand forecasting that will require less effort in the process of utilizing the new product diffusion model while also allowing for more objective and timely application. Drawing upon the theoretical foundation provided by the hype cycle model and the consumer adoption model, this proposed model makes it possible to estimate the maximum market potential based solely on bibliometrics and the scale of the early market, thereby presenting a method for supplying the major parameters required for the Bass model. Upon analyzing the forecasting ability of this model by applying it to the case of the hybrid car market, the model was confirmed to be capable of successfully forecasting results similar in scale to the market potential deduced through various other objective sources of information, thus underscoring the potentials of utilizing this model. Moreover, even the hype cycle or the life cycle can be estimated through direct linkage with bibliometrics and the Bass model. In cases where the hype cycles of other models have been observed, the forecasting ability of this model was demonstrated through simple case studies. Since this proposed model yields a maximum market potential that can also be applied directly to other growth curve models, the model presented in the following paper provides new directions in the endeavor to forecast technology diffusion and identify promising technologies through bibliometrics.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.39 no.5
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• pp.412-421
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• 2013

Motion picture industry is one of the most representative fields in the cultural industry and has experienced constant growth both worldwide and within domestic markets. However, little research has been undertaken for diffusion patterns of motion pictures, whereas various issues such as demand forecasting and success factor analysis have been widely explored. To analyze diffusion patterns, we adopted extended Bass model to reflect the potential demand of movies. Four clusters of selected movies were derived by k-means clustering method with criteria of opening strength and profitability and then compared by their diffusion patterns. Results indicated that movies with high profitability and medium opening strength are most significantly influenced by word of mouth effect, while low profitability movies display nearly monotonic decreasing diffusion patterns with noticeable initial adoption rates and relatively early peak points in their runs.

• IE interfaces
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.255-263
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• 2012

In order to ensure the reliability and specialty of weapon system test results, a policy of extending certified testing service institutions has been driven by applying accreditation system of the ones in defense industry. Bass and Logistic models are used to apply the policy effectively and forecast the diffusion pattern of certified testing service institutions. The parameters for diffusion forecast are estimated using the diffusion pattern of certified testing service institutions in non-defense industry, and these are applied to forecast the diffusion of certified ones in defense industry. Coefficients of innovation and imitation of Bass model are analyzed to derive the factors influencing the early adoption and diffusion patterns. The more increasing the coefficients, the earlier adoption occurred. Diffusion pattern due to coefficient of imitation, internal factor, has larger effect on sensitivity of diffusion pattern. This means that the self recognition of necessity is more effectively worked than the policy or regulations driven by government.

• Health Policy and Management
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.85-110
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• 2008

In this study, we explore the long-term demand forecasting of high-price medical equipments based on logistic and Bass diffusion model. We analyze the specific pattern of each equipment's diffusion curve by interpreting the parameter estimates of Bass diffusion model. Our findings are as follows. First, ultrasonic imaging system, CT are in the stage of maturity and so, the future demands of them are not too large. Second, medical image processing unit is between growth stage and maturity stage and so, the demand is expected to increase considerably for two or three years. Third, MRI is in the stage of take-off and Mammmography X-ray system is in the stage of maturity but, estimates of the potential number of adopters based on logistic model is considerably different to that based on Bass diffusion model. It means that additional data for these two equipments should be collected and analyzed to obtain the reliable estimates of their demands. Fourth, medical image processing unit have the largest q value. It means that the word-of-mouth effect is important in the diffusion of this equipment. Fifth, for MRI and Ultrasonic system, q/p values have the relatively large value. It means that collective power has an important role in adopting these two equipments.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.1-7
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• 2015

Korea's electricity supply and demand policy has focusing on electricity demand side management instead of the expanding supply and a lot of effort for LED(Light Emitting Diode) at the time. This paper calculated the optimal subsidy for LED spread. For this purpose, it analyzed the impact on spread of the lighting appliances each subsidy level from BDM(Bass Diffusion Model) and predicted the number of lighting appliances according to subsidy level in the future. The case study is calculated susidy for satisfaction of LED target using the suggested model in the future and verified availability.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.267-273
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• 2001

While forecasting sales of a new product is very difficult, it is critical to market success. This is especially true when other products have a highly negative influence on the product because of competition effect. In this paper, we develop a choice-based competitive diffusion model and apply to the case where two digital mobile telecommunication services, that is, digital cellular and PCS services, compete. The basic premise is that demand patterns result from choice behavior, where customers choose a product to maximize their utility. In comparison with Bass-type competitive diffusion models, our model provides superior fitting and forecasting performance. The choice-based model is useful in that it enables the description of such competitive environments and provides the flexibility to include marketing mix variables such as price and advertising.

• The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.63-72
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• 2012

The Korean telecommunications market has been expanding swiftly, these days, to be saturated. In this environment, the upcoming mobile telecommunication market, where 4G service was introduced this year, is becoming more substitutive and competitive. Thus, the demand forecasting of 4G service is very difficult, while it is critical to market success. This paper adopts a multi-generation diffusion model to capture the diffusion and substitution patterns for two successive generation of technological services, i.e., 3G and 4G mobile telecommunications services. The three parameters, i.e., the coefficient of innovation, the coefficient of imitation, and the coefficient of market potential, used in the multi-generation diffusion model based on Norton and Bass[11] are obtained by inference from similar substitutive relations between older and newer telecommunication services to 3G and 4G services. The simulation results show that the Bass type multi-generation model can be successfully applied to the demand forecasting of newly introduced 4G mobile telecommunication service.