• Title/Summary/Keyword: autoregressive process

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Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population: An evidence from Rwanda

  • Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel;Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.116-124
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    • 2017
  • The study makes an attempt to investigate the causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population with an evidence from Rwanda by employing a time series data spanning from 1965 to 2011 using the autoregressive distributed lag model. Evidence from the study shows that carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population are co-integrated and have a long-run equilibrium relationship. Evidence from the Granger-causality shows a unidirectional causality running from industrialization to GDP per capita, population to carbon dioxide emissions, population to GDP per capita and population to industrialization. Evidence from the long-run elasticities has policy implications for Rwanda; a 1% increase in GDP per capita will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 1.45%, while a 1% increase in industrialization will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.64% in the long-run. Increasing economic growth in Rwanda will therefore reduce environmental pollution in the long-run which appears to support the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. However, industrialization leads to more emissions of carbon dioxide, which reduces environment, health and air quality. It is noteworthy that the Rwandan Government promotes sustainable industrialization, which improves the use of clean and environmentally sound raw materials, industrial process and technologies.

Is Expansionary Fiscal and Monetary Policy Effective in Australia?

  • HSING, Yu
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.5-9
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - This paper examines whether fiscal and monetary expansion would affect output in Australia. Research design, data, and methodology - An extended IS-LM model which describes the equilibrium in the goods market and the money market is applied. The real effective exchange rate and the real stock price are included in order to determine whether there may be any substitution or wealth effect. The sample consists of Annual data ranging from 1990 to 2018. The GARCH process is used in empirical work to correct for potential autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Results - Expansionary fiscal policy reduces output; whereas, expansionary monetary policy raises output. In addition, real appreciation of the Australian dollar, a lower U.S. interest rate, a higher real stock price or a lower expected inflation would increase output. The finding that expansionary fiscal policy has a negative impact on real GDP suggests that the negative crowding-out effect on private spending dominates the positive impact. Conclusions - Fiscal prudence needs to be pursued. Real depreciation of the Australian dollar hurts output. Monetary tightening in the U.S. generates a negative effect on Australia's output. A healthy stock market is conducive to economic growth as higher stock prices tend to result in the wealth and other positive effects, increasing consumption and business spending.

General Method of Equivalent Damping Ratio Evaluation of a Structure equipped with Response Dampers (응답감쇠장치가 설치된 구조물의 등가감쇠비산정에 관한 일반적인 방법)

  • 민경원;이영철;이상현
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2002.05a
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is to propose the general method for evaluating the equivalent damping ratios of a structure with supplemental response control dampers. We define Lyapunov function of which derivative can be expressed in autoregressive form and evaluate the equivalent damping ratios by using Lyapunov function and its derivative. This Lyapunov function may be called as generalized structural energy. In this study, it is assumed that the response of a structure is stationary random process and control dampers do not affect the modal shapes of a structure, and the structure has proportional damping. Proposed method can be used to get the equivalent damping ratios of a structure with non-linear control dampers such as friction dampers as well as linear control dampers. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method. we evaluate the equivalent damping ratios of a structure with viscous dampers. AMDs. and friction dampers. The equivalent damping ratios from proposed method are compared to those from eigenvalue analysis for linear control dampers. and those from time history analysis for non-linear control dampers. respectively.

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Bayes Inference for the Spatial Time Series Model (공간시계열모형에 대한 베이즈 추론)

  • Lee, Sung-Duck;Kim, In-Kyu;Kim, Duk-Ki;Chung, Ae-Ran
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2009
  • Spatial time series data can be viewed either as a set of time series collected simultaneously at a number of spatial locations. In this paper, We estimate the parameters of spatial time autoregressive moving average (SIARMA) process by method of Gibbs sampling. Finally, We apply this method to a set of U.S. Mumps data over a 12 states region.

An Acoustic Echo Canceller By Using the Reduced Lattice Filter Structure (축소격자필터 구조를 사용한 음향반향제거기)

  • 유재하;조성호;윤대희;차일환
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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    • v.32B no.11
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    • pp.1473-1480
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    • 1995
  • When the LMS algorithm is employed in the transversal filter structure, the computational complexity can be kept reasonably low. However, if the impulse response to be estimated is very long or signals involved are highly correlated like a speech the convergence speed becomes slow. The lattice filter is an excellent alternative to improve convergence speed since the lattice structure inherently has the orthogonal property among the backward prediction errors, but at the expense of the excessive computational load. If the input signal to be used can be sufficiently well modeled as a .RHO.-th order autoregressive(AR) process, the reflection coefficients after the .RHO.- th stage will be close to zero. Then, instead of employing the full lattice structure, the joint lattice filter structure can be implemented in conjunction with the transversal filter structure after the .RHO.-th stage. We propose, in this paper, this new lattice/transversal joint structure, and we will call it the reduced lattice filter. Using the reduced lattice filter, we are now able to achieve the performance as good as that of the lattice filter, while maintaining the complexity as low as that of the transversal filter. The proposed filter is particularly useful for an acoustic echo canceller due to the highly correlatedness nature of speeches and the long and frequently changing echo paths.

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Model-based Analysis of Cell-to-Cell Imbalance Characteristic Parameters in the Battery Pack for Fault Diagnosis and Over-discharge Prognosis (배터리 팩 내부 과방전 사전 진단을 위한 모델기반 셀 간 불균형 특성 파라미터 분석 연구)

  • Park, Jinhyeong;Kim, Jaewon;Lee, Miyoung;Kim, Byoung-Choul;Jung, Sung-Chul;Kim, Jonghoon
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Power Electronics
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.381-389
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    • 2021
  • Most diagnosis approaches rely on historical failure data that might not be feasible in real operating conditions because the battery voltage and internal parameters are nonlinear according to various operating conditions, such as cell-to-cell configuration and initial condition. To overcome this issue, the estimator and the predictor require integrated approaches that consider comprehensive data, with the degradation process and measured data taken into account. In this paper, vector autoregressive models (VAR) with various parameters that affect overdischarge to the cell in the battery pack were constructed, and the cell-to-cell parameters were identified using an adaptive model to analyze the influence of failure prognosis. The theoretical analysis is validated using experimental results in terms of the feasibility and advantages of fault prognosis.

Revolution of nuclear energy efficiency, economic complexity, air transportation and industrial improvement on environmental footprint cost: A novel dynamic simulation approach

  • Ali, Shahid;Jiang, Junfeng;Hassan, Syed Tauseef;Shah, Ashfaq Ahmad
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.10
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    • pp.3682-3694
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    • 2022
  • The expansion of a country's ecological footprint generates resources for economic development. China's import bill and carbon footprint can be reduced by investing in green transportation and energy technologies. A sustainable environment depends on the cessation of climate change; the current study investigates nuclear energy efficiency, economic complexity, air transportation, and industrial improvement for reducing environmental footprint. Using data spanning the years 1983-2016, the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag simulation method has demonstrated the short- and long-term variability in the impact of regressors on the ecological footprint. The study findings revealed that economic complexity in China had been found to have a statistically significant impact on the country's ecological footprint. Moreover, the industrial improvement process is helpful for the ecological footprint in China. In the short term, air travel has a negative impact on the ecological footprint, but this effect diminishes over time. Additionally, energy innovation is negative and substantial both in the short and long run, thus demonstrating its positive role in reducing the ecological footprint. Policy implications can be extracted from a wide range of issues, including economic complexity, industrial improvement, air transportation, energy innovation, and ecological impact to achieve sustainable goals.

The Impact of Energy Crisis and Political Instability on Outsourcing: An Analysis of the Textile Industry of Pakistan

  • ARSLAN, Aniqa;QAYYUM, Arslan;AYUBI, Sharique;KHAN, Sohail Ahmed;ASAD ULLAH, Muhammad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.235-243
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    • 2022
  • To help the industry, outsourcing was found to be the most efficient method. An extensive literature analysis was done to assess the macroeconomic factors associated with outsourcing to supplement the anxious parties' decision-making process with evidence-based comprehensive tools. As a theoretical framework for evaluating these issues, transaction cost economies and resource-based perspective theories are investigated. Outsourcing is proven to be a result of energy crises and political instability. The advantages of outsourcing assist major industries in the economy. To discover the key drivers behind outsourcing, we used the vector autoregressive (VAR model) and step-wise regression techniques for the period 1992 to 2016. This research adds to the literature in that it not only explains the energy issue but also discusses the dilemma of political instability in the country in the context of outsourcing. The findings indicate that labor cost and export tendency have a positive impact on outsourcing strategy, which confirms the study's third and fourth hypotheses. Customs tax, inflation, and the unemployment rate, on the other hand, have a negative impact on textile outsourcing in Pakistan, according to the study's fifth, sixth, and seventh hypotheses.

The Impact of Globalization on CO2 Emissions in Malaysia

  • CHUAH, Soo Cheng;CHEAM, Chai Li;SULAIMAN, Saliza
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.295-303
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the impact of globalization, coal consumption, and economic growth on CO2 emissions in Malaysia by applying the Kuznets Environmental Curve model. The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag modeling technique on time series data over the period of 1970-2018 to determine the short and long-run relationship between CO2 emissions and a number of variables, including globalization, coal consumption, and economic growth. The results show that globalization increase CO2 emissions in both the short and long run in Malaysia. Furthermore, the results reveal that economic growth and coal consumption degrade the environmental quality by accelerating the CO2 emissions in the short-run and long run. As a result, the findings validate the Kuznets Environmental Curve hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions in the long run for Malaysia. The findings of this study suggest that higher globalization levels and usage of coal consumption degrade the environmental quality in Malaysia. The findings also indicate the effect of economic growth on environmental degradation is positive at the initial stage but improves after the economy achieves a threshold level of income per capita in the economic development process with an inverted U-shaped pattern in the long run.

A Study on the Interpersonal Relationship between Parenting Stress and Children's Problem Behavior in Low Income Families (저소득층 가정 양육자의 양육스트레스와 아동 문제행동 간의 상호인과적 관계에 대한 종단연구)

  • Song, Mi-Ryoung;Hong, Seung-ae
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.340-348
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study was to investigate the mutual relationship between parenting stress and children's problem behaviors among those participating in dream start services. In order to verify the effect of parental and child effects on child's problem behavior and parenting stress based on repeated measures from the first grade of elementary school to the third grade of elementary school among children participating in dream start services, autoregressive cross-lagged modeling was applied. As a result, the stability coefficient showed that the two variables were significantly stable for 3 years. In other words, the measurement was maintained at a similar level with time. The causal relationship between parents 'parenting stress and child' s problem behavior was generally explained by the parental effect. In other words, parental stress is related to the child's problem behavior. These results show that the economic stress of poverty increases parents' parenting stress, which can negatively affect the adaptive development of children in the process of raising children.