• Title/Summary/Keyword: approximate estimating

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An Ex Ante Evaluation Method for Assessing a Government Enforced Security Measure (정부의 정보 보안 대책 법제화의 사전 효과성 분석 방법)

  • Shim, Woohyun
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.241-256
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    • 2015
  • In order to ensure that all firms are cyber-secure, many governments have started to enforce the implementation of various security measures on firms. Prior to the implementation, however, it is vague whether government enforced security measures will be effective for mitigating cyber-security risks. By applying a method for estimating the effectiveness of a mandatory seatbelt law in reducing fatalities from motor vehicle accidents, this study develops an ex ante evaluation method that can approximate the effectiveness of a government enforced security measure in reducing country-wide or industry-wide cyber-security risks. Using data obtained from the Korean Internet and Security Agency, this study then explores how to employ the developed method to assess the effectiveness of a specific security measure in mitigating cyber-security risks, if enforced by the government, and compares the effectiveness of various security measures. The comparison shows that compulsory security training has the highest effectiveness.

Face Tracking and Recognition on the arbitrary person using Nonliner Manifolds (비선형적 매니폴드를 이용한 임의 얼굴에 대한 얼굴 추적 및 인식)

  • Ju, Myung-Ho;Kang, Hang-Bong
    • 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.342-347
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    • 2008
  • Face tracking and recognition are difficult problems because the face is a non-rigid object. If the system tries to track or recognize the unknown face continuously, it can be more hard problems. In this paper, we propose the method to track and to recognize the face of the unknown person on video sequences using linear combination of nonlinear manifold models that is constructed in the system. The arbitrary input face has different similarities with different persons in system according to its shape or pose. Do we can approximate the new nonlinear manifold model for the input face by estimating the similarities with other faces statistically. The approximated model is updated at each frame for the input face. Our experimental results show that the proposed method is efficient to track and recognize for the arbitrary person.

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Capabilities of stochastic response surface method and response surface method in reliability analysis

  • Jiang, Shui-Hua;Li, Dian-Qing;Zhou, Chuang-Bing;Zhang, Li-Min
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.49 no.1
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    • pp.111-128
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    • 2014
  • The stochastic response surface method (SRSM) and the response surface method (RSM) are often used for structural reliability analysis, especially for reliability problems with implicit performance functions. This paper aims to compare these two methods in terms of fitting the performance function, accuracy and efficiency in estimating probability of failure as well as statistical moments of system output response. The computational procedures of two response surface methods are briefly introduced first. Then their capabilities are demonstrated and compared in detail through two examples. The results indicate that the probability of failure mainly reflects the accuracy of the response surface function (RSF) fitting the performance function in the vicinity of the design point, while the statistical moments of system output response reflect the accuracy of the RSF fitting the performance function in the entire space. In addition, the performance function can be well fitted by the SRSM with an optimal order polynomial chaos expansion both in the entire physical and in the independent standard normal spaces. However, it can be only well fitted by the RSM in the vicinity of the design point. For reliability problems involving random variables with approximate normal distributions, such as normal, lognormal, and Gumbel Max distributions, both the probability of failure and statistical moments of system output response can be accurately estimated by the SRSM, whereas the RSM can only produce the probability of failure with a reasonable accuracy.

Analysis of Fracture Risk due to Alterations of Bone Quality by Metastatic Bone Tumor (전이성 골암으로 인한 골질 변화와 이로 인한 골절 위험성 분석)

  • Lim, Dohyung
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.213-222
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    • 2012
  • While much has been learned about the mechanisms of metastatic spread of cancer to bone, there has been little headway in establishing guidelines for monitoring the alteration in bone quality and estimating fracture risk. The aims of this study are, therefore, 1) to evaluate bone quality induced by metastatic bone tumor by analyzing the characteristics on bone microarchitecture and degree of bone mineralization and 2) analyze fracture risk increased secondary to the bone quality changes by metastatic bone tumor through calculating mechanical rigidities based on in-vivo micro CT images. For this study, eighteen female SD rats (12 weeks old, approximate 250 g) were randomly allocated in Sham and Tumor groups. W256 (Walker carcinosarcoma 256 malignant breast cancer cell) was inoculated in the right femur (intraosseous injection) in Tumor group, while 0.9% NaCl (saline solution) was injected in Sham group. The right hind limbs of all rats were scanned by in-vivo micro-CT to acquire structural parameters and degree of bone mineralization at 0 week, 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 12 weeks after surgery. At the same time, urine was collected by metabolic cages for a biochemical marker test in order to evaluate bone resorption. Then, bone metastasis had been directly identified by positron emission tomography. Finally, axial, bending and torsional rigidities had been calculated based on in-vivo micro CT images for predict fracture risk. The results of this study showed that metastatic bone tumor might induce significant decrease in bone quality and increase of fracture risk. This study may be helpful to monitoring a degree of bone metastasis and predicting fracture risk due to metastatic bone tumor. In addition, this noninvasive diagnostic methodology may be utilized for evaluating other bone metabolic diseases such as osteoporosis.

Modeling of cyclic joint shear deformation contributions in RC beam-column connections to overall frame behavior

  • Shin, Myoungsu;LaFave, James M.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.645-669
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    • 2004
  • In seismic analysis of moment-resisting frames, beam-column connections are often modeled with rigid joint zones. However, it has been demonstrated that, in ductile reinforced concrete (RC) moment-resisting frames designed based on current codes (to say nothing of older non-ductile frames), the joint zones are in fact not rigid, but rather undergo significant shear deformations that contribute greatly to global drift. Therefore, the "rigid joint" assumption may result in misinterpretation of the global performance characteristics of frames and could consequently lead to miscalculation of strength and ductility demands on constituent frame members. The primary objective of this paper is to propose a rational method for estimating the hysteretic joint shear behavior of RC connections and for incorporating this behavior into frame analysis. The authors tested four RC edge beam-column-slab connection subassemblies subjected to earthquake-type lateral loading; hysteretic joint shear behavior is investigated based on these tests and other laboratory tests reported in the literature. An analytical scheme employing the modified compression field theory (MCFT) is developed to approximate joint shear stress vs. joint shear strain response. A connection model capable of explicitly considering hysteretic joint shear behavior is then formulated for nonlinear structural analysis. In the model, a joint is represented by rigid elements located along the joint edges and nonlinear rotational springs embedded in one of the four hinges linking adjacent rigid elements. The connection model is able to well represent the experimental hysteretic joint shear behavior and overall load-displacement response of connection subassemblies.

A rational estimating method of the earth pressure on a shaft wall considering the shape ratio (벽체형상비의 영향을 합리적으로 고려한 원형수직구 벽체에 작용하는 토압산정방법)

  • Shin, Young-Wan;SaGong, Myung
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2007
  • The earth pressure acting on a circular shaft wall is smaller than that acting on the wall in plane strain condition due to the three dimensional axi-symmetric arching effect. Accurate estimation of the earth pressure is required for the design of the shaft wall. In this study, the stress model considering the decrease of earth pressure due to the horizontal and vertical arching effect and the influence of shape ratio (shaft height/radius) is proposed. In addition, model test on the sandy soil is conducted and a comparison is made between the stress model and the test results. The comparison shows that the proposed stress model is in agreement with test results; decrease of shape ratio (increase of radius) leads to stress state equal to the plane strain condition and approximate stress distribution is found between stress model and model test results.

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Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Demolition Costs (건축물 해체공사비 변동 영향요인 분석)

  • Shin, Dong-Wook;Cho, Kyu-Man;Lee, Ung-Kyun;Kim, Tae-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.499-506
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    • 2018
  • The number of demolition work is rapidly increasing because the middle- and high-rised buildings constructed over the rapid industrialization and urbanization have been deteriorated in social and structural aspects. However, theoretical approaches or studies related to the demolition cost prediction are still insufficient. Thus, this study derived and analyzed important factors affecting the fluctuation of the building demolition costs. 14 factors was derived through literature reviews and experts' interview, and the importance of each factor was analyzed to the each work(temporary work, structure demolition, and waste disposal) and the entire demolition work by using descriptive analysis. The survey results showed that the demolition costs was greatly influenced by environmental properties of the site. The results of this study can be used as a basis for estimating the approximate cost of the demolition work.

A Stochastic Analysis of VOC Emissions from the Distribution Process of the Gasoline

  • Han, Wha-Jin;Song, Yanghoon;Cho, Yongsung
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.17 no.E4
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    • pp.163-168
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    • 2001
  • Estimating the emission rate of VOCs from a gasoline industry at national level can be a challenging take even though the estimation is mean-based. However, using the procedures in the US EPA AP-42 guidelines, it is possible to approximate the mean industry emission rate once enough data are available. However, this estimate can be misled in the sense that there exist many stochastic factors in the EPA\\`s estimation procedures and also throughout the marketing channels of gasoline industry. Addressing the stochasticity problem in EPA\\`s procedure is hard to tackle because the detailed data needed to execute the estimation are not usually available even from refiners. Instead, this research tries to stay focused on the second type of stochasticity issue, raised from the mean0based metrological and marketing practice data collected from the 4 major refiners. To do so emission raters from each marketing channels (8 marketing points by 3 transportation types and by storage facilities of 4 refiners) are estimated monthly, following AP-42 procedures and using Tank 4.0. Once these estimates are acquired, the distribution of VOC emission rate for each marketing channel of all 4 refiners is estimated through simulation method using @Risk. The mean-based emission rates are weighted by company quantities to estimate the emission rate from the whole gasoline industry. Simple economic implication is provided, based on the result. This study found that, on the mean-bases, about 0.66% of gasoline marketed are evaporated into air. Considering the stochasticity in the estimation, about 90% of simulation results fell into the range of 0.65 to 0.68%. For 90% chance, the estimated economic loss is $54.65 million to $57.17 million, not counting the cost caused by air quality degradation and associated health impact.

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Preliminary Construction Cost Prediction Model Based on Module for Modernized Hanok (초기 기획단계의 신한옥 공사비 예측 모델 - 모듈(칸) 기반의 목공사 개략 물량 산출 중심으로 -)

  • Kang, Seunghee;Jung, Youngsoo
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.48-56
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    • 2020
  • Prediction of construction cost in the planning stage that provides basic information for feasibility study, budgeting, and planning is an important factor for successful project execution. In this study, a prediction model was developed for the purpose of improving the accuracy of estimating the construction cost of Hanok in the planning stage. The cost of this model is estimated by two methods. First, the cost of wood work, which accounts for the largest portion of the total construction cost, is estimated by calculating the approximate quantity under various conditions (structure type, roof type, plane type, etc.). Second, the cost of the rest work sections except the wood work is estimated by using the unit cost model. The predictive model was verified by two case projects, and the error rate of total construction cost was -4%(case 1) and -6%(case 2). These results showed an error rate in the range that can be applied to practice in the planning stage.

Approximate Technique for Ship′s Manoeuvrabilily Prediction (선박조종성능 추정을 위한 근사적 기법에 관한 연구)

  • Ho-Young Lee;Sang-Sung Shin
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, we studied the Similar Ship(SS) concept[1,2] as a method to an experimental and semi-emperical approach for the estimation of hull hydrodynamic forces and hull-propeller-rudder interaction coefficients and used these methods to predict ship's manoeuvrability. The SS concept is adopted to use experimental data of prototype ships for manoeuvrability prediction of a new ship. The SS concept is composed of the key components as follows: existence of experimental data about prototype ship, availability of semi-emperical method for estimating the changes of hull force, a method to correct the prototype ship data. On the basis of these concepts, we attempted to simulate manoeuvrability at ballast and scantling draft conditions by making use of experimental data at full load draft condition and to simulate manoeuvrability of new ships by making use of experimental data for prototype. From present calculation, it was found that the present method can predict the ship's manoeuvrability accurately at early design stage.

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