• 물과 미래
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.87-100
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• 1976

본 연구는 우리나라의 한강, 낙동강, 금강 및 영산강유역을 포함한 광역적인 하천유역에 있어서의 년 및 월유량과 항우량에 대하여 Correlogram 및 Spectrum 분석을 통한 시계열의 해석과 그 변동양상을 구명하고 이 특성을 기초로 해서 년 및 월수문량의 장기간의 Simulation을 위한 추계학적모델의 개발과 검토에 그 목적을 두었다. 먼저 수문량의 변동양상의 분석에 있어서는 미국, 유럽 및 호주대륙의 유량분석의 결과와 대비하면서 유량모집단의 표준편차($\sigma$)를 년유량의 대수평균치(L)에 대하여 지수함수의 관계식으로 표시하여 수자원량의 변동양상을 구명하였다. 다음 년수문량(유량 및 항우량)의 시계열의 각 성분을 알기 위하여 Correlogram 및 Spectral density분석을 행하였으며, 그 Simulation을 위한 단일이절 모델로서는 년수문량의 적정분포형인 대수정규분포와 Monte Carlo 방법에 기초를 둔 LN모델(Log-Normal Model)과 1차선형 자기회귀모델인 Markov모델을 설정하여 비교.검토하였다. 다음으로 월수문량(유량 및 항우량)의 시계열 및 추계학적 성분 역시 Correlogram 및 Spectral density분석에 의하여 구명하였으며, 그 Simulation에 있어서는 이 시계열특성과 낙동강 자료에 의하여 연구, 검토된 바 있는 상유천 월유량의 모의발생모델을 광역적으로 적용시키고 또한 월항우량에 대해서도 적용시켜서 이 모델의 적용성과 아울러 광역적인 월수문량의 모의발생모델을 확립토록 하였다.

• 설비공학논문집
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.287-293
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• 2003

This study examined the temperature-dependent regression model of energy consumption based on various measuring period. The methodology employed was to construct temperature-dependent linear regression model of daily energy consumption from one day to three months data-sets and to compare the annual heating energy consumption predicted by these models with actual annual heating energy consumption. Heating energy consumption from a building in Daejon was examined experimentally. From the results, predicted value based on one day experimental data can have error over 100%. But predicted value based on one week experimental data showed error over 30%. And predicted value based on over three months experimental data provides accurate prediction within 6% but it will be required very expensive.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제31권3호
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• pp.217-227
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• 2020

Based on translation models, both Gaussian and non-Gaussian wind fields are generated using spectral representation method for investigating the influence of non-Gaussian characteristics and directivity effect of wind load on fatigue damage of wind turbine. Using the blade aerodynamic model and multi-body dynamics, dynamic responses are calculated. Using linear damage accumulation theory and linear crack propagation theory, crack initiation life and crack propagation life are discussed with consideration of the joint probability density distribution of the wind direction and mean wind speed in detail. The result shows that non-Gaussian characteristics of wind load have less influence on fatigue life of wind turbine in the area with smaller annual mean wind speeds. Whereas, the influence becomes significant with the increase of the annual mean wind speed. When the annual mean wind speeds are 7 m/s and 9 m/s at hub height of 90 m, the crack initiation lives under softening non-Gaussian wind decrease by 10% compared with Gaussian wind fields or at higher hub height. The study indicates that the consideration of the influence of softening non-Gaussian characteristics of wind inflows can significantly decrease the fatigue life, and, if neglected, it can result in non-conservative fatigue life estimates for the areas with higher annual mean wind speeds.

• 한국토양비료학회지
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• 제44권6호
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• pp.1004-1009
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• 2011

Soil erosion in North Korea has been continued to accelerate by deterioration of topographical conditions. However, few studies have been conducted to predict the amount of soil loss in North Korea due to limited data so far. Rainfall erosivity is an important factor to predict the amount of long-term annual soil loss by USLE (universal soil loss equation). The purpose of this study is to investigate rainfall erosivity, which presented the potential risk of soil erosion by water, in North Korea. Annual rainfall erosivities for 27 stations in North Korea for 1983~2010 were calculated using regression models based on modified Institute of Agricultural Sciences (IAS) index in this study. The result showed that annual average rainfall erosivity in North Korea ranged from 2,249 to 7,526 and averaged value was $4,947MJmm\;ha^{-1}\;hr^{-1}\;yr^{-1}$, which corresponded to about 70% of annual average rainfall erosivity in South Korea. The finding was that the potential risk of soil erosion in North Korea has been accelerated by the increase of rainfall erosivity since the late 1990s.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제45권2호
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• pp.20-29
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• 2022

This study intends to present a traffic node-based and link-based accident prediction models using XGBoost which is very excellent in performance among machine learning models, and to develop those models with sustainability and scalability. Also, we intend to present those models which predict the number of annual traffic accidents based on road types, weather conditions, and traffic information using XGBoost. To this end, data sets were constructed by collecting and preprocessing traffic accident information, road information, weather information, and traffic information. The SHAP method was used to identify the variables affecting the number of traffic accidents. The five main variables of the traffic node-based accident prediction model were snow cover, precipitation, the number of entering lanes and connected links, and slow speed. Otherwise, those of the traffic link-based accident prediction model were snow cover, precipitation, the number of lanes, road length, and slow speed. As the evaluation results of those models, the RMSE values of those models were each 0.2035 and 0.2107. In this study, only data from Sejong City were used to our models, but ours can be applied to all regions where traffic nodes and links are constructed. Therefore, our prediction models can be extended to a wider range.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2003

To estimate the annual WTP for risk reduction of environmental problems such as outdoor and indoor air pollution, and drinking water contamination, a questionnaire survey was conducted by dichotomous contingent valuation method in Seoul. Several covariate models based on Turnbull, Weibull and Spike models were developed and applied to WTP estimation with uncertainty analysis. WTP estimates for risk reduction of air pollution were 13,000 won, 12,000 won, and 10,000 won per month in low-bounded Turnbull, Weibull and Spike models, respectively. The estimates for indoor air pollution were 17,000 won,20,000 won and 21,000 won and these for drinking water contamination were 10,000 won, 13,000 won and 14,000 won in each model, respectively. Goodness of fit for Weibull model was better than those for other models. WTP estimates for indoor air pollution were higher than those for other pollution problems.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제18권6호
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• pp.135-149
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• 2015

Korean fir(Abies koreana E.H.Wilson 1920), endemic tree species of Korean peninsula, is considered as vulnerable and endangered species to recent rapid environmental changes such as land use and climate change. There are limited activities and efforts to find natural habitats of Korean fir for conservation of the species and habitats. In this study, by applying SDMs (Species Distribution Models) based on climate and topographic factors of Korean fir, we developed Korean fir's predicted distribution model and explored novel natural habitats. In Mt. Shinbulsan, Youngnam region and Mt. Songnisan, we could find korean fir's two novel habitat and the former was the warmest($13^{\circ}C$ in annual mean temperature), the driest(1,200mm~1,600mm in annual rainfall) and relatively low altitude environment among Korean fir's habitats in Korea. The result of SDMs did not include mountain areas of Gangwon-do as habitats of A. nephrolepis, because there were different contributions of key habitat environment factors, summer rainfall, winter mean temperature and winter rainfall, between A. koreana and A. nephrolepis. Our results raise modification of other distribution models on Korean fir. Novel habitat of Korean fir in Mt. Shinbulsan revealed similar habitat affinity of the species, ridgy and rocky site, with other habitats in Korea. Our results also suggest potential areas for creation of Korea fir's alternative habitats through species reintroduction in landscape and ecosystem level.

• Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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• 제11권1_2호
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• pp.1-10
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• 1996

A decrease in stratospheric ozone probably caused by chloroflurocarbons (CFCs) emissions, has been observed large parts of-the globe. It is generally accepted that if ozone levels in the stratosphere are depleted, greater amounts of shortwave ultraviolet radiationB (UVB) will reach the earth's surface, resulting in increased incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer. In this study, we evaluated several mathematical models, such as a power and an exponential model, and a geometric model considering the surface area of a human body part and ages for the prediction of Skin cancer incidence caused by exposure to the UVB radiation. These models basically estimated the risk of skin cancer based on those measurements of the local ozone in stratosphere and UVB. Both were measured at a part of Seoul with a Dobson ozone spectrometer and Robertson-Berger UV Biometer for 1995. As a result, we calculated the point estimation applying a biological amplification factor (BAF), UVB radiation and other factors. We used a Monte-Carlo simulation technique with assumption on the distribution of each considered factor. The sensitivity analysis of model by there components conducted using Gaussian sensitivity method. The annual integral of UVB radiation was 2275 MED (minimal erythema dose)/yr. Also, an estimate of the annual amount of UVB reaching the earth's surface at a korea's latitude and altitude was 3328 MED/yr. The values of the radiation amplification factor (RAF) were ranged from 0.9 to 1.5 in Seoul. To give the effective factors required to model the prediction of skin cancer incidence caused by exposure to the UVB radiation in Korea, we studied the pros and cons of above mentioned models with the application of those parameters measured in Seoul, Korea.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제31권4호
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• pp.321-334
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• 2020

Engineering type tropical cyclone (TC) wind field models are used to estimate TC wind hazard. Some of the models are well-calibrated using observation data, while others are not extensively compared and verified. They are all proxies to the real TC wind fields. The computational effort for their use differs. In the present study, a comparison of the predicted wind fields is presented by considering three commonly used models: the gradient wind field model, slab-resolving model, and a linear height-resolving model. These models essentially predict the horizontal wind speed at a different height. The gradient wind field model and linear height-resolving model are simple to use while the nonlinear slab-resolving model is more compute-intensive. A set of factors is estimated and recommended such that the estimated TC wind hazard by using these models becomes more consistent. The use of the models, including the developed set of factors, for estimating TC wind hazard over-water and over-land is presented by considering the historical tracks for a few sites. It is shown that the annual maximum TC wind speed can be adequately modelled by the generalized extreme value distribution.

• Spatial Information Research
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.247-256
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• 1998

본 연구의 목적은 설악산국립공원 및 점봉산천연보호림 일대의 생태조사자료를 활용하여 멧돼지 서식지 적합성 예측모형을 개발하는 것이다. 본 연구의 GIS DB는 2년간 무선송신기를 이용하여 수집한 멧돼지의 서식지 이용 적합성 자료에 입각하여 대상지역의 임상, 영급, 향 경사도 수계 및 임도로부터의 거리 등으로 구축하였다. 서식지 적합성 분석은 전술한 6개의 영향인자를 중첩하여 계산하였고 이때 각 인자의 등급은 대상지의 환경특성을 고려하여 표준화시켜 이용하였다. 서식지 적합성 분석인자는 여름, 가을 및 년중으로 구분하였으며, 적합성은 다시 5등급으로 재분류하였다. 점봉산 일대의 멧돼지 흔적관찰지점을 적합성 평가 도면에 중첩한 결과 일치율이 높아서 모형의 정확성이 높은 것으로 판명되었다.