• Title/Summary/Keyword: annual models

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Reconstruction of Radiation Dose Received by Diagnostic Radiologic Technologists in Korea

  • Choi, Yeongchull;Kim, Jaeyoung;Lee, Jung Jeung;Jun, Jae Kwan;Lee, Won Jin
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.49 no.5
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    • pp.288-300
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    • 2016
  • Objectives: Diagnostic medical radiation workers in Korea have been officially monitored for their occupational radiation doses since 1996. The purpose of this study was to design models for reconstructing unknown individual radiation doses to which diagnostic radiation technologists were exposed before 1996. Methods: Radiation dose reconstruction models were developed by using cross-sectional survey data and the personal badge doses of 8167 radiologic technologists. The models included calendar year and age as predictors, and the participants were grouped into six categories according to their sex and facility type. The annual doses between 1971 and 1995 for those who were employed before 1996 were estimated using these models. Results: The calendar year and age were inversely related to the estimated radiation doses in the models of all six groups. The annual median estimated doses decreased from 9.45 mSv in 1971 to 1.26 mSv in 1995, and the associated dose variation also decreased with time. The estimated median badge doses from 1996 (1.22 mSv) to 2011 (0.30 mSv) were similar to the measured doses (1.68 mSv to 0.21 mSv) for the same years. Similar results were observed for all six groups. Conclusions: The reconstruction models developed in this study may be useful for estimating historical occupational radiation doses received by medical radiologic technologists in Korea.

Drought Analysis of Nakdong River Basin Based on Multivariate Stochastic Models (다변량 추계학적 모형을 이용한 낙동강 유역의 가뭄해석에 관한 연구)

  • Heo, Jun-Haeng;Kim, Gyeong-Deok;Jo, Won-Cheol
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.155-163
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    • 1997
  • In this study, drought analysis of annual flows of Jindong, Hyunpoong, and Waekwan stations located at Nakdong River Basins was performed based on multivariate stochastic models. The stochastic models used were multivariate autoregressive model (MAR) and multivariate contemporaneous (MCAR) model. MCAR(1) and MAR(1) models were selected to be a appropriate models for these stations based on skewness test of normality, test of uncorrelated residuals, and correlograms of the residual series of each model. The statistics generated by MCAR(1) model and MAR(1) model resembled very closely those computed from historical series. The drought characteristics such as run len호, run sum, and run intensity were fairly well reproduced for the various lengths of generated annual flows based on the MCAR(1) and MAR(1) models. Thus, these drought characteristics may give the important informations in planning mid or long term water supplying systems.

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Focal Depth Factors in the PSH Analysis

  • Kim, Jun-Kyoung
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.83-86
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    • 1998
  • The results from the Individual Plant Examination of External Event of Yonggwyang nuclear power plants, unit 3 & 4, in Korea have shown that the high degree of diversities of the experts' opinions on seismicity and attenuation models is su, pp.sed to be generic cause of uncertainty of APEs(annual exceedance probability) in the PAHA(probabilistic seismic hazard analysis). This study investigated the sensitivity of the focal depth, which is one of the most uncertain seismicity parameters in Korea, Significant differences in resultant values of annual exceedance probabilities and much more symmetrical shape of the resultant PDFs(probability density functions), in case of consideration of focal depth, are found. These two results suggest that, even for the same seismic input data set including the seismicity models and ground motion attenuation models, to consider focal depth additionally for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis evaluation makes significant influence on the distributions of uncertainties and probabilities of exceedance per year for the whole ranges of seismic hazard levels. These facts suggest that it is necessary to derive focal depth parameter more effectively from the historical and instrumental documents on earthquake phenomena in Koran Peninsula for the future study of PSHA.

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Annual Cycle and Interannual Variability of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in the CMIP5 Climate Models: Use of Genesis Potential Index (CMIP5 기후모델에서 나타나는 열대저기압 생성빈도의 연진동과 경년변동성: 잠재생성지수의 이용)

  • Kwon, MinHo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.583-595
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    • 2012
  • The potential for tropical cyclogenesis in a given oceanic and atmospheric environments can be represented by genesis potential index (GPI). Using the 18 Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the annual cycle of GPI and interannual variability of GPI are analyzed in this study. In comparison, the annual cycle of GPI calculated from reanalysis data is revisited. In particular, GPI differences between CMIP5 models and reanalysis data are compared, and the possible reasons for the GPI differences are discussed. ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) has a tropical phenomenon, which affects tropical cyclone genesis and its passages. Some dynamical interpretations of tropical cyclogenesis are suggested by using the fact that GPI is a function of four large-scale parameters. The GPI anomalies in El Nino or La Nina years are discussed and the most contributable factors are identified in this study. In addition, possible dynamics of tropical cyclogenesis in the Northern Hemisphere Pacific region are discussed using the large-scale factors.

Directional Design Hourly Volume Estimation Model for National Highways (일반국도의 중방향 설계시간 교통량 추정 모형)

  • Lim, Sung-Han;Ryu, Seung-Ki;Byun, Sang-Cheol;Moon, Hak-Yong
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.13-22
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    • 2012
  • Estimating directional design hourly volume (DDHV) is an important aspect of traffic or road engineering practice. DDHV on highway without permanent traffic counters (PTCs) is usually determined by the annual average daily traffic (AADT) being multiplied by the ratio of DHV to AADT (K factor) and the directional split ratio (D factor) recommended by Korea highway capacity manual (KHCM). However, about the validity of this method has not been clearly proven. The main intent of this study is to develop more accurate and efficient DDHV estimation models for national highway in Korea. DDHV characteristics are investigated using the data from permanent traffic counters (PTCs) on national highways in Korea. A linear relationship between DDHV and AADT was identified. So DDHV estimation models using AADT were developed. The results show that the proposed models outperform the KHCM method with the mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE).

Carbon Reduction Services of Evergreen Broadleaved Landscape Trees for Ilex rotunda and Machilus thunbergii in Southern Korea

  • Jo, Hyun-Kil;Kim, Jin-Young;Park, Hye-Mi
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.240-247
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    • 2019
  • This study quantified carbon reduction services through direct harvesting of Ilex rotunda and Machilus thunbergii, which are the typical urban landscape tree species in southern Korea. A total of 20 open-grown tree specimens (10 specimens for each species) were selected reflecting various sizes of stem diameter at breast height of 1.2 m (DBH) at a regular interval. The study measured biomass for each part of the tree specimens including roots to compute total carbon storage per tree. Annual carbon uptake per tree was also calculated analyzing the DBH growth rate of stem disk specimens. Quantitative models were developed using DBH as an independent variable to easily estimate storage and annual uptake of carbon by tree growth for each species. All the models had a high goodness-of-fit with R2=0.95-0.99. The difference in carbon reduction services between DBH sizes increased with increasing DBH. The storage and annual uptake of carbon from a tree with DBH of 10 cm were 13.5 kg and 2.4 kg/yr for I. rotunda, and 19.1 kg and 3.6 kg/yr for M. thunbergii, respectively. The tree of this size stored the amount of carbon equivalent to that emitted from a gasoline use of approximately 24 L for I. rotunda and 34 L for M. thunbergii, respectively. The study provides actual measurement data to quantify carbon reduction services of urban open-grown landscape trees for the warm-temperate species that have been little known until now.

System Dynamics Modeling for Policy Analysis of Occupational Injuries (시스템다이내믹스를 이용한 산업재해율 분석)

  • Chung, Hee Tae
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.417-424
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    • 2015
  • The research of occupational injury for safety and health is a comparatively recent occurrence. As labor activities took place regarding to employee concerns in industrial uprising, human resources health was tried to enhanced as a labor safety subject. Noticing that traditional statistics approach has limitations in learning future forecasting and major factors causing occupational injuries in each industry, Korean Government initiated a quantitative systematic simulation model project to analyze how the annual injury rate has been dropped and stays in a level for recent years. From this motivation and the project, system dynamics models have been developed to explain the mechanisms for reducing annual injury rate, and the mechanisms quantitatively. The main cause effects for the reduction of annual injury rate were due to the government driven investment on safety facilities. In overall viewpoint the gain achievable from these efforts has been reached a saturated level. However, it could reduce the annual injury rate if you chose the industry and size carefully. The model for forecasting, major injury factors, safety budget and allocation are introduced and analyzed, and Analyzing occupational injury related factors can also reduce employee injury and disease related costs, including medical care, quit, and disability assistance costs.

Development of Diameter and Basal Area Growth Models for Larix leptolepis in Eastern Mountain Areas, Jeollabuk-do (전라북도 동부 산악지역 낙엽송의 직경 및 흉고단면적 생장모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun;Jo, Young-Jin;Lee, Sang-Hyun
    • Journal of agriculture & life science
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    • v.45 no.5
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to develop the growth model for diameter at breast height (DBH) and basal area (BA) of Larix leptolepis stands grown in eastern mountain areas, Jeollabuk-do and to enhance the precision of the models by adding regional and climatal factors, such as altitude, mean annual rainfall, and mean annual temperature. In results, it was analyzed that Schumacher polymorphic equation might be the best model to estimate DBH and BA growth. In case of the DBH growth model, precision was improved by adding altitude and mean annual rainfall. Moreover, in case of the BA growth model, precision was improved by adding mean annual rainfall. Meanwhile, it would be necessary for more precise model to add various factors, such as stand density, mortality, thinning ratio, and edaphic status along with regional and climatal factors.

Effect of Real Estate Holding Type on Household Debt

  • KIM, Sun-Ju
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.41-52
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims to provide implications for the government's housing supply policy by analyzing the factors that determine the type of real estate holding and household debt. This study started from the awareness that the determinants of household debt differ depending on the type of real estate holding. Research design, data and methodology: Real estate ownership type was classified and analyzed into 4 models: model 1 (1 household 1 house and self-resident), model 2 (1 household multiple real estate ownership and self-resident), model 3 (1 household 1 house and rent residence), model 4 (1 household holds a large number of real estate and rent residence). The analysis method used multiple regression analysis. The dependent variable was household total debt. As independent variables, household debt, annual gross household income, financial assets, real estate net assets, annual repayment, demographic & residential characteristics were used. Results: 1) Model 4 has the highest household debt and the highest gross income, Model 2 has the most real estate mortgage loans and real estate net asset, and Model 1 has the highest real estate mortgage payments. 2) The positive factor of common household debt determinants is real estate net assets, and the negative factor is financial assets. 3) It was the net assets of real estate that acted as a positive factor in common for the four models. In other words, the more financial assets, the less household debt. It was analyzed that the more net assets of real estate, the more household debt. The annual repayment of financial liabilities had no influence on household debt, while the annual repayment of loan liabilities and household debt had a positive relationship. Conclusions: 1) It is necessary to introduce benefits and systems that can increase the proportion of household financial asset. Specific alternatives include tax benefits and reduced fees for financial asset investment. 2) In the case where a homeless person prepares one house for one household, it is necessary to prepare various support measures according to the income level. The specific alternative is to give additional points for pre-sale or apply an interest rate cut incentive for mortgage loans.

Relative contributions of weather systems to the changes of annual and extreme precipitation with global warming

  • Utsumi, Nobuyuki;Kim, Hyungjun;Kanae, Shinjiro;Oki, Taikan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.234-234
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    • 2015
  • The global patterns of annual and extreme precipitation are projected to be altered by climate change. There are various weather systems which bring precipitation (e.g. tropical cyclone, extratropical cyclone, etc.). It is possible in some regions that multiple weather systems affect the changes of precipitation. However, previous studies have assessed only the changes of precipitation associated with individual weather systems. The relative contributions of the weather systems to the changes of precipitation have not been quantified yet. Also, the changes of the relative importance of weather systems have not been assessed. This study present the quantitative estimates of 1) the relative contributions of weather systems (tropical cyclone (TC), extratropical cyclone (ExC), and "others") to the future changes of annual and extreme precipitation and 2) the changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system in annual and extreme precipitation based on CMIP5 generation GCM outputs. Weather systems are objectively detected from twelve GCM outputs and six models are selected for further analysis considering the reproducibility of weather systems. In general, the weather system which is dominant in terms of producing precipitation in the present climate contributes the most to the changes of annual and extreme precipitation in each region. However, there are exceptions for the tendency. In East Asia, "others", which ranks the second in the proportion of annual precipitation in present climate, has the largest contribution to the increase of annual precipitation. It was found that the increase of the "others" annual precipitation in East Asia is mainly explained by the changes of that in summer season (JJA), most of which can be regarded as the summer monsoon precipitation. In Southeast Asia, "others" precipitation, the second dominant system in the present climate, has the largest contribution to the changes of very heavy precipitation (>99.9 percentile daily precipitation of historical period). Notable changes of the proportions of precipitation associated with each weather system are found mainly in subtropics, which can be regarded as the "hotspot" of the precipitation regime shift.

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