• 제목/요약/키워드: annual models

검색결과 546건 처리시간 0.036초

스킨스쿠버 해양어촌관광의 경제적 가치 추정: 제주도를 대상으로 (Estimating the Economic Value of Skin Scuba Marine Tourism: Focused on Jeju Island)

  • 강석규
    • 수산경영론집
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    • 제47권1호
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of skin scuba marine tourism activity in Jeju Island. The economic value is estimated as consumer surplus using count data models including the truncated Poisson model and the truncated negative binominal distribution model. This study collects the effective 369 questionnaires from skin scuba marine tourists through three times in Jeju Island. The truncated Poisson model was statistically more suitable and valid than other models. The truncated Poisson model was applied to estimate consumer surplus as economic value from skin scuba in Jeju Island. A consumer surplus value per trip was estimated as about 4,081,633 won. The annual economic value from skin scuba marine tourism activity was estimated as 8,428,571 won in Jeju Island. Consequently, skin scuba marine tourism activity has a very large economic value in Jeju Island.

Allometry, Basal Area Growth, and Volume Equations for Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis in Gangwon Province of Korea

  • Choi, Jung-Kee;You, Byung-Oh;Burkhart, Harold E.
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제96권2호
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    • pp.189-196
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    • 2007
  • Allometry, basal area equations, and volume equations were developed with various tree measurement variables for the major species, Quercus mongolica and Quercus variabilis, in Korean natural hardwood forests. For allometry models, the relationships between total height-DBH, crown width-DBH, height to the widest portion of the crown-total height, and height to base of crown-total height were investigated. Multiple regression methods were used to relate annual basal area growth to tree variables of initial size (DBH, total height, crown width) and relative size (relative diameter, relative height) as well as competition measures (competition index, crown class, exposed crown area, percent exposed crown area, live crown ratio). For tree volume equations, the combined-variable and Schumacher models were fitted with DBH, total height and crown width for both species.

기후변화에 따른 대구지역 지하배수 전망 (Future subsurface drainage in the light of climate change in Daegu, South Korea)

  • 은코모제피 템바;정상옥
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • 제30권2호
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 2012
  • Over the last century, drainage systems have become an integral component of agriculture. Climate observations and experiments using General circulation models suggest an intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change. This study presents hydrologic simulations assessing the potential impact of climate change on subsurface drainage in Daegu, Republic of Korea. Historical and Long Ashton Research Station weather generator perturbed future climate data from 15 general circulation models for a field in Daegu were ran into a water management simulation model, DRAINMOD. The trends and variability in rainfall and Soil Excess Water ($SEW_{30}$) were assessed from 1960 to 2100. Rainfall amount and intensity were predicted to increase in the future. The predicted annual subsurface drainage flow varied from -35 to 40 % of the baseline value while the $SEW_{30}$ varied from -50 to 100%. The expected increases in subsurface drainage outflow require that more attention be given to soil and water conservation practices.

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확률론적 지진재해도 분석을 위한 지진원 모델의 민감도 분석 (Sensitivity Analysis of Seismic Source Models for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis)

  • 김연중;전정윤;김태균
    • 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지진공학회 2003년도 추계 학술발표회논문집
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    • pp.36-45
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    • 2003
  • Sensitivity analyses for several seismic source models were studied. For the area sources, the hazard is steeply decreasing with the source-to-site distance. Hazard is decreasing when the area of the source is increasing with fixed annual rate. For the fault sources, the fault length, distance from a site and dip angle of near fault show very sensitive effect to seismic hazard. But the various magnitude-rupture length relationships show effect to seismic hazard slightly. For the fault source with small magnitude, the exponential model is preferred rather than the characteristic model to the magnitude-recurrence law.

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거대 언어 모델의 내재된 지식을 활용한 질의 응답 방법 (Question Answering that leverage the inherent knowledge of large language models)

  • 심묘섭;민경구;박민준;최주영;정해민;최정규
    • 한국정보과학회 언어공학연구회:학술대회논문집(한글 및 한국어 정보처리)
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    • 한국정보과학회언어공학연구회 2023년도 제35회 한글 및 한국어 정보처리 학술대회
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    • pp.31-35
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    • 2023
  • 최근에는 질의응답(Question Answering, QA) 분야에서 거대 언어 모델(Large Language Models, LLMs)의 파라미터에 내재된 지식을 활용하는 방식이 활발히 연구되고 있다. Open Domain QA(ODQA) 분야에서는 기존에 정보 검색기(retriever)-독해기(reader) 파이프라인이 주로 사용되었으나, 최근에는 거대 언어 모델이 독해 뿐만 아니라 정보 검색기의 역할까지 대신하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 거대 언어 모델의 내재된 지식을 사용해서 질의 응답에 활용하는 방법을 제안한다. 질문에 대해 답변을 하기 전에 질문과 관련된 구절을 생성하고, 이를 바탕으로 질문에 대한 답변을 생성하는 방식이다. 이 방법은 Closed-Book QA 분야에서 기존 프롬프팅 방법 대비 우수한 성능을 보여주며, 이를 통해 대형 언어 모델에 내재된 지식을 활용하여 질의 응답 능력을 향상시킬 수 있음을 입증한다.

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시계열 모형을 이용한 부산 북항의 물동량 예측 (The Forecast of the Cargo Transportation for the North Port in Busan, using Time Series Models)

  • 김정훈
    • 한국항만경제학회지
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    • 제24권2호
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 부산 북항의 장래 물동량을 시계열 모형을 이용하여 정량적으로 예측하였다. 항만물동량을 화물의 특성에 따라 크게 컨테이너, 유류, 일반화물 3가지로 구분하였다. 북항의 물동량 예측에서는 먼저 기존 물동량의 계절지수를 산정하고, 지수평활모형과 ARIMA모형 중에서 최적모형을 선정하였다. 이를 통해 추정된 각 화물별 해당연도의 물동량에 계절지수를 적용하여 물동량을 월별로 산출하였다. 2011년과 2015년의 컨테이너 예측 물동량은 각각 21,390만톤, 23,144만톤이며, 이는 2007년 대비 2011년과 2015년에 각각 약 7.4%, 16.2%로 증가한 것이다. 유류화물의 물동량은 동일하게 약 705만톤으로 2007년 대비 약 4.7% 증가하는 것으로 나타났으나 2002년의 물동량보다는 낮을 것으로 예측되었다. 그리고 일반화물의 물동량은 약 805만톤으로 2007년 대비 2011년과 2015년에 각각 약 0.74%, 0.75% 감소할 것으로 나타나 2007년과 거의 비슷한 수준을 유지할 것으로 예측되었다. 향후 북항에서 처리될 것으로 예측된 전체 항만물동량은 2011년과 2015년에 각각 22,900만톤과 24,654만톤으로 예상되었다. 이는 2007년 대비 각각 약 7.0%, 15.2% 증가한 물동량이다. 이러한 물동량의 증가는 컨테이너화물의 견인차 역할로 인한 결과로 예측되었다. 또한 북항 전체의 장래 월별 물동량을 보면 4월에 가장 많고, 2월에는 가장 적을 것으로 나타났다.

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Climate Change Scenario Generation and Uncertainty Assessment: Multiple variables and potential hydrological impacts

  • 권현한;박래건;최병규;박세훈
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2010년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.268-272
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    • 2010
  • The research presented here represents a collaborative effort with the SFWMD on developing scenarios for future climate for the SFWMD area. The project focuses on developing methodology for simulating precipitation representing both natural quasi-oscillatory modes of variability in these climate variables and also the secular trends projected by the IPCC scenarios that are publicly available. This study specifically provides the results for precipitation modeling. The starting point for the modeling was the work of Tebaldi et al that is considered one of the benchmarks for bias correction and model combination in this context. This model was extended in the framework of a Hierarchical Bayesian Model (HBM) to formally and simultaneously consider biases between the models and observations over the historical period and trends in the observations and models out to the end of the 21st century in line with the different ensemble model simulations from the IPCC scenarios. The low frequency variability is modeled using the previously developed Wavelet Autoregressive Model (WARM), with a correction to preserve the variance associated with the full series from the HBM projections. The assumption here is that there is no useful information in the IPCC models as to the change in the low frequency variability of the regional, seasonal precipitation. This assumption is based on a preliminary analysis of these models historical and future output. Thus, preserving the low frequency structure from the historical series into the future emerges as a pragmatic goal. We find that there are significant biases between the observations and the base case scenarios for precipitation. The biases vary across models, and are shrunk using posterior maximum likelihood to allow some models to depart from the central tendency while allowing others to cluster and reduce biases by averaging. The projected changes in the future precipitation are small compared to the bias between model base run and observations and also relative to the inter-annual and decadal variability in the precipitation.

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Water consumption prediction based on machine learning methods and public data

  • Kesornsit, Witwisit;Sirisathitkul, Yaowarat
    • Advances in Computational Design
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.113-128
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    • 2022
  • Water consumption is strongly affected by numerous factors, such as population, climatic, geographic, and socio-economic factors. Therefore, the implementation of a reliable predictive model of water consumption pattern is challenging task. This study investigates the performance of predictive models based on multi-layer perceptron (MLP), multiple linear regression (MLR), and support vector regression (SVR). To understand the significant factors affecting water consumption, the stepwise regression (SW) procedure is used in MLR to obtain suitable variables. Then, this study also implements three predictive models based on these significant variables (e.g., SWMLR, SWMLP, and SWSVR). Annual data of water consumption in Thailand during 2006 - 2015 were compiled and categorized by provinces and distributors. By comparing the predictive performance of models with all variables, the results demonstrate that the MLP models outperformed the MLR and SVR models. As compared to the models with selected variables, the predictive capability of SWMLP was superior to SWMLR and SWSVR. Therefore, the SWMLP still provided satisfactory results with the minimum number of explanatory variables which in turn reduced the computation time and other resources required while performing the predictive task. It can be concluded that the MLP exhibited the best result and can be utilized as a reliable water demand predictive model for both of all variables and selected variables cases. These findings support important implications and serve as a feasible water consumption predictive model and can be used for water resources management to produce sufficient tap water to meet the demand in each province of Thailand.

다양한 가족유형에 대응하는 사회통합적 주거모델개발을 위한 주거현황 분석연구 (Analysis on the current housing types for development of social integrated housing models responding to family diversity)

  • 김경연;이수진;이연숙
    • 한국주거학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국주거학회 2008년도 춘계학술발표대회 논문집
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    • pp.140-144
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    • 2008
  • While we go through a rapid change in society, family types composing social relationship underwent lots of changes. Recently the range of family is included not only families on the basis of blood relationship but also single family, a one-parent family and non-blood relationship family. Now we need not unified types of housing but social integrated housing models responding to family diversity. The purpose of this study is that examine family diversity through social statistics and demography and grasp the current housing types responding to family diversity. The features of family diversity are reducing the number of family member and turning up a unformal family type. At the social statistics and demography in 2005, the number of family member is only 2.9 people per family. Due to decline of birth rate and change of marriage consciousness, various family types appear and increase such as single family, a one-parent family and non-blood relationship family. But there is lack of housing types responding to such family diversity. This study will be a basic research to develop social integrated housing models responding to family diversity. Housing must be sensitive to change of family type, so it responds our needs based on thorough understanding on various housing life.

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Impact of Open Access Models on Citation Metrics

  • Razumova, Irina K.;Kuznetsov, Alexander
    • Journal of Information Science Theory and Practice
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    • 제7권2호
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2019
  • We report results of selection-bias-free approaches to the analysis of the impact of open access (OA) models on citation metrics. We studied reference groups of Gold and Green OA articles and the group of non-OA (Paywall) articles with the new functionality of the Web of Science Core Collection database, the InCites platform of Clarivate Analytics, and the Dimensions database of Digital Science. For each reference group we obtained the values of the percent of cited articles and citation impact and their dependence on the depth of the citation period. Different research fields were analyzed in two schemas of the InCites platform. We report the higher values and growth rates of the citation metrics: citation impact and %Cited, in the OA reference groups over the Paywall group. The Green OA articles demonstrate the highest values of citation metrics among all the OA models. Dependence of the value of citation impact on citation period follows linear law with R2 values close to 0.9-1.0. The overall annual growth rates of citation impact of the Green OA, Gold OA, and the Paywall articles, k equal, respectively, 3.6, 2.4, and 1.4 in Dimensions and 4.6, 3.6, and 2.3 in the Web of Science Core Collection. We suppose that earlier results reported for the articles in pure OA journals vs. articles in Paywall journals were affected by the high citation impact of the Green and Hybrid OA articles that could not be elucidated in the Paywall journals at that time.