• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.29-36
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to examine the characteristics of disaster associated with typhoon passed through the sea areas excluding the South Sea around the Korean Peninsula. First, Korean peninsula-affecting typhoons were divided into their track patterns of passing through the Korean West Sea and East Sea based on typhoon data from 1951 to 2006 provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center(RSMC)-Tokyo. Then, annual and monthly frequency and intensity of typhoon in each pattern was examined. In particular, typhoon related damages during the period of 1973 to 2006 were analyzed in each case. Results showed that since early 1970, in the West Sea case, typhoon becomes weaker without significant change in frequency, while in the East Sea case, it becomes stronger with an increasing trend. It is also found that the high amount of typhoon damage results from the submergence of houses and farmlands in the East Sea case, while it is due to the breakdown of houses, ships, roads and bridges in the West Sea case. In addition, it is revealed from the analysis of rainfall and maximum wind speed data associated with typhoon disasters that the main cause of occurring typhoon disasters seem to be qualitatively related to strong wind in the West Sea case and heavy rainfall in the East Sea case.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.279-279
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• 2020

최근 copula 모형은 여러 확률변수를 갖는 수문현상에 대해 빈도해석을 수행할 경우 결합확률분포형으로 유용하게 사용되고 있다. 하나의 자료를 확률변수로 사용하는 단변량 빈도해석에 비해 여러 수문자료를 동시에 각각 확률변수로 취하여 결합확률분포형을 추정할 수 있는 다변량 빈도해석은 수문자료의 상관성을 고려하면서 확률분포형을 추정할 수 있다는 장점이 있다. Copula 모형 중 Gumbel copula는 extreme-value 확률분포형으로 극치사상에 적합한 확률분포형이다. 본 연구에서는 Gumbel copula를 이용하여 우리나라 기상청 64개 종관기상관측소의 강우자료로부터 극치 강우사상을 추출하고, 이를 이용하여 빈도해석을 수행하였다. 극치 강우사상은 전체 강우사상 중 각 년도별로 최대강우량을 갖는 연최대강우량사상(annual maximum volume event)을 사용하였다. 각 확률변수의 주변분포형으로는 gamma, Gumbel, generalized extreme value, generalized logistic, Weibull 등 5개 확률분포형을 검토하였으며 각각 적합한 주변분포형을 적용하고 copula 모형의 매개변수는 의사최우도법(maximum pseudo-likelihood method)를 사용하여 추정하였다. 또한 추정된 copula 모형은 Cramer-von Mises 함수와 경험적 copula를 이용하여 적합도 검정을 수행하였다. 이를 통해 극치강우사상에 대하여 Gumbel copula 모형의 적용성을 검토하였으며 추정된 결합확률분포형을 이용하여 빈도별 확률강우사상을 2차원 등치선(contour line)형태로 제시하였다.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.13 no.3
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• pp.499-514
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• 2011

An underlying assumption of traditional hydrologic frequency analysis is that climate, and hence the frequency of hydrologic events, is stationary, or unchanging over time. Under stationary conditions, the distribution of the variable of interest is invariant to temporal translation. Water resources infrastructure planning and design, such as dams, levees, canals, bridges, and culverts, relies on an understanding of past conditions and projection of future conditions. But, Water managers have always known our world is inherently non-stationary, and they routinely deal with this in management and planning. The aim of this paper is to give a brief introduction to non-stationary extreme value analysis methods. In this paper, a non-stationary hydrologic frequency analysis approach is introduced in order to determine probability rainfall consider changing climate. The non-stationary statistical approach is based on the conditional Generalized Extreme Value(GEV) distribution and Maximum Likelihood parameter estimation. This method are applied to the annual maximum 24 hours-rainfall. The results show that the non-stationary GEV approach is suitable for determining probability rainfall for changing climate, sucha sa trend, Moreover, Non-stationary frequency analyzed using SOI(Southern Oscillation Index) of ENSO(El Nino Southern Oscillation).

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.4 no.4
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• pp.225-234
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• 1971

With the advance of civilization and steadily increasing population rivalry and competition for the use of the sewage, culverts, farm irrigation and control of various types of flood discharge have developed and will be come more and more keen in the future. The author has tried to calculated a formula that could adjust these conflicts and bring about proper solutions for many problems arising in connection with these conditions. The purpose of this study is to find out effective sewage, culvert, drainage, farm irrigation, flood discharge and other engineering needs in the Taegu area. If demands expand further a new formula will have to be calculated. For the above the author estimated methods of control for the probable expected rainfall using a formula based on data collected over a long period of time. The formula is determined on the basis of the maximum daily rainfall data from 1921 to 1971 in the Taegu area. 1. Iwai methods shows a highly significant correlation among the variations of Hazen, Thomas, Gumbel methods and logarithmic normal distribution. 2. This study obtained the following major formula: ${\log}(x-2.6)=0.241{\xi}+1.92049{\cdots}{\cdots}$(I.M) by using the relation $F(x)=\frac{1}{\sqrt{\pi}}{\int}_{-{\infty}}^{\xi}e^{-{\xi}^2}d{\xi}$. ${\xi}=a{\log}_{10}\(\frac{x+b}{x_0+b}\)$ ($-b<x<{\infty}$) ${\log}(x_0+b)=2.0448$ $\frac{1}{a}=\sqrt{\frac{2N}{N-1}}S_x=0.1954$. $b=\frac{1}{m}\sum\limits_{i=1}^{m}b_s=-2.6$ $S_x=\sqrt{\frac{1}{N}\sum\limits^N_{i=1}\{{\log}(x_i+b)\}^2-\{{\log}(x_0+b)\}^2}=0.169$ This formule may be advantageously applicable to the estimation of flood discharge, sewage, culverts and drainage in the Taegu area. Notation for general terms has been denoted by the following. Other notations for general terms was used as needed. $W_{(x)}$ : probability of occurranec, $W_{(x)}=\int_{x}^{\infty}f_{(n)}dx$ $S_{(x)}$ : probability of noneoccurrance. $S_{(x)}=\int_{-\infty}^{x}f_(x)dx=1-W_{(x)}$ T : Return period $T=\frac{1}{nW_{(x)}}$ or $T=\frac{1}{nS_{(x)}}$ $W_n$ : Hazen plot $W_n=\frac{2n-1}{2N}$ $F_n=1-W_x=1-\(\frac{2n-1}{2N}\)$ n : Number of observation (annual maximum series) P : Probability $P=\frac{N!}{{t!}(N-t)}F{_i}^{N-t}(1-F_i)^t$ $F_n$ : Thomas plot $F_n=\(1-\frac{n}{N+1}\)$ N : Total number of sample size $X_l$ : $X_s$ : maximum, minumum value of total number of sample size.

• Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.49 no.3
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• pp.153-175
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• 2016

Daecheong Reservoir has suffered eutrophication and water-blooms by blue-green algae from initial impoundment, and algae alert system (AAS) was introduced in 1997. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of rainfall and hydrological factors in increase or decrease variability of green-tide and prolonged AAS, studied and analyzed the current situation of AAS has been operating for 19 years (1997~2015) in Daecheong Reservoir. The total issued number of AAS was 46 times, the most frequent period in August and September were 22 times (752 days) and 16 times (431 days), respectively, it accounted for 82.6%. Many number and frequency during this period were significantly associated with rainfall, various discharge and water level. Rainfall and hydrological events are associated with the rainy season of monsoon-Changma and the typhoon, it was concentrated in June~September, total rainfall in this period accounted for 69.9% of the annual rainfall. An increase in inflows was dependent on the intensity, frequency and the amount of rainfall. Accounted for 68.4% of the total annual inflow, it was a time when the most rapidly changing hydrological variability in the reservoir. The total outflow was closely related to rainfall, and compared the distinctive characteristics of hydropower generation and watergate-spillway discharge. In addition, the upreservoir zone of Daecheong Reservoir could be vulnerable to green-tide by regulating discharge of the upstream dam. The issue of AAS was strongly related to the with and without of watergate-spillway discharge. The watergate-spillway discharge had a total of 25 times, it was maximum 17 days from July to September in the year. And the opening times and each duration of the watergate were 1~4 times and the range of 3~37 days, respectively. When the watergate opened, the issue of AAS was maintained to 13 years and the movement of water bodies and green-tide was great about five times than that of non-open, had a profound effect on prolonged AAS within reservoir. In Daecheong Reservoir, Chusori (CHU) area of the So-ok Stream was still showing serious symptoms green-tide levels in the summer, but Janggye (JAN) waters of the main reservoir was pointed out that more important. AAS will be operated by an absolutely consider the rainfall and hydrological effects around the watergate-spillway discharge. The measures of green-tide will be included in the limnological studies more suited to the characteristics of the watershed and reservoir of the our country. Finally, from now on, we will prepare the systematic management and guidelines for vulnerable zone water-blooms that are the source within the reservoir before the monsoon rather than waiting for the arrival of green-tide on the operating stations of AAS.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.353-366
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• 2016

The effect of different environmental conditions and altitudes on the growth and reproductive characteristics in 12 teak plantations at 4 different blocks (Cauvery canal bank, Topslip and Parambikulam (Tamil Nadu), Nilambur and Wayanad (Kerala) of Southern India was investigated. The annual rainfall and mean monthly temperature of the study areas varied significantly from 1390 to 3188 mm and 16 to $38^{\circ}C$ respectively. The teak plantations in Cauvery canal bank which grow in continuous moisture condition (8-10 months) retain the leaf for longer period due to moisture resulting continuous supply of photosynthates leads to fast and outstanding growth. The girth at breast height (GBH) of 34-years-old tree in canal area was similar to that of 40 to 49-years-old trees in other locations, indicating that teak plantations with regular watering and silvicultural practices may be harvested at the age of 30 years. The leaf fall, flowering and fruiting showed significant variations in different teak plantations due to environmental factors and altitudes. It was found that increase of rainfall enhances number of flowers in the inflorescence in teak. Tholpatty (block-IV) showed more flowering in a inflorescence (3,734-3,744) compared to other plantations (1,678-3,307). Flowering in Nilambur and Wayanad coincided with heavy rainfall resulting low fruitset (1.1-2.3%) probably heavy rainfall ensuing restriction of pollinators for effective pollination. On the other hand, flowering in Cauvery canal bank (Block-I) was not coincided with high rainfall exhibited high fruitset (2-3%). About 66 to 76% of the fruits in different plantations were empty, and it is one of the main reasons for poor germination in teak. The seeds of Topslip and Parambikulam (Block-II) showed higher seed weight, maximum seed filling and good germination indicating that the environmental factors and altitude play significant role in fruit setting and seed filling in teak. In addition, the teak plantations in Topslip and Parambikulam showed good growth suggesting that plantations in the altitude range of approximately 550-700 m may be suitable for converting into seed production areas for production of quality seeds.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.19-28
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• 1995

A rainfall runoff model described in this paper which is based on Basin- wide Ecological Model(BAWEM) calculates the fate of afro-chemicals in a watershed located of golf links. The rainfall runoff coefficients of afro-chemicals, which are the dominant parameters to predict the movement of agro-chemicals from soil and turfgrass to downstream water, are estimated. Also, the model is used to estimate the level of health risks the residents around golf links are exposed to. The fidelity of rainfall runoff model of afro-chemicals was validated by the observed data obtained during rainy period. The calculated results from this model were found to be in the same order of that of the observed. The rainfall runoff coefficients of four agro-chemicals used in golf links were 5.4$\times$$10^{-3}$, 1.9$\times$$10^{-3}$, 3.0$\times$$10^{-4}$ and 4.4$\times$$10^{-3}$ for flutolanil, isoprothiolane, chlorpyrifos and simazine, respectively The health risk level to the residents around golf links is evaluated to be rather low:the ratio of estimated dose through drinking water to the 10% of ADI(Acceptable Daily Intake) value or VSD for 10-a life time risk varied in the range of 0.005~0.04 and 0.003~0.11, respectively, for both the annual mean and maximum monthly mean cases.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.433-449
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• 2006

Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in South Korea are investigated using 60 observation data of the recent 30-years from 1976 to 2005. The area averaged annual precipitation amount is about 1310 mm and shows a strong spatial variation, maximum at the southern and Kyoungki province (>1300 mm) and minimum at the Kyungpook province(<1100 mm). The precipitation days show a strong spatial variation with maximum at the Sobaik mountain region(>100 days) and minimum at the Kyungpook province (<90 days). The interannual variations (IAV) of precipitation amount and days are more significant at the southern and eastern part of Sobaik and Taebaik mountain, and along the Sobaik mountain, respectively. So, the difference of annual precipitation amount reaches to about 800mm between wet and dry years at the southern part of Korean peninsula. Whereas, the IAV of precipitation intensity is strong at the southern and middle part of South Korea with a minimum between two maxima. Also, seasonal variations are closely linked with the geographic environments (elevation, distance from ocean, location relative to the Taebaik mountain). Therefore, maximum and minimum of seasonal variations of precipitation are occurred at the northern inland region (ratio of summer to the annual precipitation (RSAP) is greater than 60%), eastern and southern coastal regions (RSAP is less than 53%),respectively. And the RSAP is slightly increased from 50% to 55% comparing the Ho and Kang (1988). The consistent and strong positive relation between the heavy rainfalls, the ratio of heavy rainfalls to annual precipitation and the annual precipitation indicates that heavy rainfall is more frequent and strong at the maximum annual precipitation region.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.252-261
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• 2018

This study was conducted to develop a method to generate daily maximum and minimum temperatures using monthly data. We analyzed 30-year daily weather data of the 23 meteorological stations in South Korea and elucidated the parameters for predicting annual trend (center value ($\hat{U}$), amplitude (C), deviation (T)) and daily fluctuation (A, B) of daily maximum and minimum temperature. We use national average values for C, T, A and B parameters, but the center value is derived from the annual average data on each stations. First, daily weather data were generated according to the occurrence of rainfall, then calibrated using monthly data, and finally, daily maximum and minimum daily temperatures were generated. With this method, we could generate daily weather data with more than 95% similar distribution to recorded data for all 23 stations. In addition, this method was able to generate Growing Degree Day(GDD) similar to the past data, and it could be applied to areas not subject to survey. This method is useful for generating daily data in case of having monthly data such as climate change scenarios.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.9
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• pp.681-690
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• 2009

In this research, design precipitation was calculated by reflecting the climatic indices and its uncertainty assessment was evaluated. Climatic indices used the sea surface temperature and moisture index which observed globally. The correlation coefficients were calculated between the annual maximum precipitation and the climatic indices. and then climatic indices which have the larger correlation coefficient were selected. Therefore, the regression relationship was established by a locally weighted polynomial regression. Next, climatic indices were generated by montecarlo simulation using kernel function. Finally, the design rainfall was calculated by the locally weighted polynomial regression using generated climatic indices. At the result, the comparison of design rainfall between the reflection of the climatic indices and the frequency analysis did not indicate a significant difference. Also, this result can be used as basic data for calculation of probability precipitation to reflect climate change.