• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.347-373
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• 2021

지난 50여 년 동안 우리나라의 사망률 감소 패턴에 대한 탐색적 연구에 의하면 연령별 사망률이 모든 연령에서 감소했지만, 특정한 사망률이 개선되고 있는 패턴은 연령과 기간에 따라 다르다는 것을 알 수 있다. 여자가 남자보다 사망률 개선이 뚜렷하고 특히 시간이 지나면서 특정그룹에서의 사망률 개선이 두드러짐에 따라 전반적으로 사망 시간 추세에 구조적인 변화가 존재함을 확인하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 우리나라 여자 사망률 자료를 이용하여 미래 사망률 예측을 위해 코호트 효과를 고려한 다양한 확률적 사망률 모형을 살펴보았다. 또한 분석 결과를 바탕으로 2067년까지 연령별 사망률과 예측기대수명을 작성하고 통계청(KOSIS)에서 제공하는 장래 연령별 사망률과 기대수명과 비교하였다. 자료이용기간에 따라 최적의 모형이 상이하나 적합력과 예측력을 전반적으로 고려했을 때 우리나라 여자 사망률은 코호트 효과를 고려한 PLAT 모형이 적절하다 볼 수 있을 것이다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.119-134
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• 2021

Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths in the world. Investigation of mortality rates is pivotal to adequately understand the determinants causing this disease, allocate public health resources, and apply different control measures. Our study aims to analyze and forecast age-specific US lung cancer mortality trends. We report functions of mortality rates for different age groups by incorporating functional principal component analysis to understand the underlying mortality trend with respect to time. The mortality rates of lung cancer have been higher in men than in women. These rates have been decreasing for all age groups since 1990 in men. The same pattern is observed for women since 2000 except for the age group 85 and above. No significant changes in mortality rates in lower age groups have been reported for both gender. Lung cancer mortality rates for males are relatively higher than females. Ten-year predictions of mortality rates depict a continuous decline for both gender with no apparent change for lower age groups (below 40).

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.44-51
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• 2007

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare suicide mortality by region in South Korea. Method: Suicide mortality differentials were calculated for several mortality indicators by geographical regions from raw data of the cause of death from KNSO. Results: The results are as follows; the Crude suicide death rate was 22.63 per 100,000. The highest was in Kangwon showing 37.84% whereas, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk followed after. Suicide was 4.4% of all causes of death, but Inchon and Ulsan showed a higher proportion. The male suicide death rate was 31.12 per 100,000 and females 14.09. The ratio of gender suicide mortality was 2.21, per 100,000 and was the highest in Jeju. For age-specific suicide death rates, the rate increased as age advanced, showing 2.33 per 100,000 in 0-19years, 18.68 in 20-39, 30.48 in 40-59, 63.33 in 60 years and over. In Ulsan, Kangwon, and Inchon, age-specific suicide death rates of the 60 and over age group were higher than other regions, Daegu, Busan, and Kangwon showed a higher age-specific suicide mortality of the 40-59 age group, and Kangwon, Jeonnam, and Chungnam had a higher age-specific suicide mortality of the 20-39 age group. Conclusions: Suicide mortality differed by region. These results can be used for a regional health care plan and planning for suicide prevention by regions.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.2727-2732
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• 2014

Objectives: The aim of this study was to describe and analyze the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer in Jiangsu Province of China. Methods: Incidence and mortality data for female breast cancer and corresponding population statistics from eligible cancer registries in Jiangsu from 2006 to 2010 were collected and analyzed. Crude rates, age-specific rates and age-standardized rates of incidence and mortality were calculated, and annual present changes (APCs) were estimated to describe the time trends. Results: From 2006 to 2010, 11,013 new cases and 3,068 deaths of female breast cancer were identified in selected cancer registry areas of Jiangsu. The annual average crude incidence and age-standardized incidence by world population (ASW) were 25.2/ and 17.9/100,000 respectively. The annual average crude and ASW for mortality rates were 7.03/ and 4.81/100,000. The incidence was higher in urban areas than that in rural areas, and this was consistent in all age groups. No significant difference was observed in mortality between urban and rural areas. Two peaks were observed when looking at age-specific rates, one at 50-59 years and another at over 85 years. During the 5 years, incidence and mortality increased with APCs of 4.47% and 6.89%, respectively. Compared to the national level, Jiangsu is an area with relatively low risk of female breast cancer. Conclusion: Breast cancer has become a main public health problem among Chinese females. More prevention and control activities should be conducted to reduce the burden of this disease, even in relatively low risk areas like Jiangsu.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권9호
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• pp.3951-3955
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• 2015

Background: Colorectal cancer mortality has started to decrease in several developed countries in Asia. The current study aimed to present the long-term trends in colorectal cancer mortality in Korea using joinpoint analysis and age-period-cohort modeling. Materials and Methods: The number of colorectal cancer deaths and the population for each 5-year age group were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013 for adults 30 years and older. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to determine changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates, and age-period-cohort analysis was performed to describe trends in colorectal cancer mortality using the intrinsic estimator method. Results: In men, the age-standardized mortality rate for colorectal cancer increased from 1984 to 2003, and the mortality rates stabilized thereafter, whereas the mortality rate of colorectal cancer in women has decreased since 2004. The age-specific mortality rate of colorectal cancer increased in both men and women over time, whereas decreases in the age-specific mortality rate in younger cohorts were observed. In the age-period-cohort analysis, old age and recent period were associated with higher mortality for both men and women. The birth cohort born after 1919 showed reduced colorectal cancer mortality in both men and women. Conclusions: Our study showed a recent decreasing trend in colorectal cancer mortality in women and a stable trend in men after 2003-2004. These changes in colorectal cancer mortality may be attributed to birth cohort effects.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권10호
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• pp.4723-4727
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• 2016

Background: There are substantial differences in the mortality rates of stomach cancer among the 47 prefectures in Japan, and Aomori prefecture is one of the most severely impacted. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence and mortality rates of stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture in comparison with Japan as a whole and cast light on reasons underlying variation. Methods: Data on stomach cancer cases were extracted from the Aomori Cancer Registry Database. Incidence rates for specific stages at the time of diagnosis were cited from Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan, and mortality rates for stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture and the whole of Japan were obtained from Vital Statistics. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated using the direct method. Results: The age-standardised incidence rate of stomach cancer in Aomori prefecture was higher than in the whole of Japan for males but lower for females. However, the age-standardised mortality rates were higher in Aomori prefecture in both sexes. The proportion of localised cancers was lower in Aomori prefecture than in the whole of Japan for most age groups. Conclusions: The lower rate for localised cancer suggests that higher age-standardised mortality rates are due to delays in diagnosis, despite an attendance rate for stomach cancer screening was higher in Aomori prefecture than in the whole of Japan. One plausible explanation for the failure of successful early detection might be poor quality control during screening implementation that impedes early detection.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.147-153
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• 2005

Objectives: Studies on the geographical differences in mortality tend to use a census population, rather than a registration population, as the denominator of mortality rates in South Korea. However, an administratively determined registration population would be the logical denominator, as the geographical areas for death certificates (numerator) have been determined by the administratively registered residence of the deceased, rather than the actual residence at the time of death. The purpose of this study was to examine the differences in the total number of a district population, and the associated district-specific mortality indicators, when two different measures as a population denominator (census and registration) were used. Methods: Population denominators were obtained from census and registration population data, and the numbers of deaths (numerators) were calculated from raw death certificate data. Sex- and 5-year age-specific numbers for the populations and deaths were used to compute sex- and age-standardized mortality rates (by direct standardization methods) and standardized mortality ratios (by indirect standardization methods). Bland-Altman tests were used to compare district populations and district-specific mortality indicators according to the two different population denominators. Results : In 1995, 9 of 232 (3.9%) districts were not included in the 95% confidence interval (CI) of the population differences. A total of 8 (3.4%) among 234 districts had large differences between their census and registration populations in 2000, which exceeded the 95% CI of the population differences. Most districts (13 of 17) exceeding the 95% CI were rural. The results of the sex- and age-standardized mortality rates showed 15 (6.5%) and 16 (6.8%) districts in 1995 and 2000, respectively, were not included in the 95% CI of the differences in their rates. In addition, the differences in the standardized mortality ratios using the two different population denominators were significantly greater among 14 districts in 1995 and 11 districts in 2002 than the 95% CI. Geographical variations in the mortality indicators, using a registration population, were greater than when using a census population. Conclusion: The use of census population denominators may provide biased geographical mortality indicators. The geographical mortality rates when using registration population denominators are logical, but do not necessarily represent the exact mortality rate of a certain district. The removal of districts with large differences between their census and registration populations or associated mortality indicators should be considered to monitor geographical mortality rates in South Korea.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권7호
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• pp.3469-3476
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• 2016

Background: The cancer research literature suggests that women, especially premenopausal women, have lower cancer mortality rates than men. However, it is unclear if that is true for populations at all age levels in all countries and what factors affect such sex differences. This paper attempts to fill that gap. Materials and Methods: Sex- and country-specific cancer mortality data were statistically analyzed with particular attention to geographic, social, and economic factors that may affect the sex differences. Results: The sex differences were age and country specific, rather than universal. Premenopausal women actually tend to have a disadvantage compared to men or postmenopausal women. Male cancer mortality appears to be the affecting factor in explaining variations in sex differences. Latitude of residence and literacy rate are the affecting factors in cancer mortality and sex differences. African and Latin American countries tend to have a female disadvantage, while East Asian and Eastern European countries are more likely to have a female advantage. Conclusions: The findings challenge the cancer mortality literature and indicate that the sex differences and their possible causes are more complicated than the current literature suggests. They also highlight the urgency of adapting age- and country- specific health systems and policies to better meet the needs of younger women.

• 한국인구학
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• 제11권1호
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• pp.197-203
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• 1988

한국 사망력의 수준 및 특징을 일본과 비교하고자 양국의 1995년 공식통계를 사용하여 사망원인별로 성$\cdot$연령$\cdot$혼인상태별 사망률, 연령표준화사망률, 생존기간손실년수(PYLL) 및 동 측정치의 남녀간 비와 한일간 비를 계산하였다. 사망원인 항목은 모든 사인(총사망), 결핵, 악성신생물, 당뇨병, 고혈압성 질환, 심장 질환, 뇌혈관 질환, 간 진환, 교통사고, 자살을 포함한다. 일본과 비교하여 한국 사망력의 두드러진 특징은 다음과 같다 : (1)자살을 제외한 대부분의 사인에서 한국의 사망률이 일본보다 높은데 , 특히 결핵, 고혈압성 질환, 간 질환 및 교통사고의 경우 한국 생산활동연령층의 사망률이 두드러지게 높다 : (2)결핵, 간질환, 교통사고, 암사망이 한국의 소아에게서도 발생한다 : (3)한국의 생산활동연령층에서 간 질환, 결핵, 교통사고에 의한 성별 사망력 격차가 큰데, 남성의 사망률이 여성의 사망률보다 높기 때문이다 : (4)자살률이 한국생산활동연령층 남성의 경우 일본보다 낮고, 10대와 20대 여성의 자살률은 일본보다 높다 : (5)한국의 45세 미만에서는 사인에 따라 사별이나 이혼상태에서, 45세 이상에서는 모든 사인에 대해 남녀 모두 미혼상태에서 사망력이 가장 높다. : (6)한국은 사별상태에서, 일본은 이혼상태에서 성별 사망력 격차가 가장 크다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제14권12호
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• pp.7321-7324
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• 2013

Objective: To estimate the incidence and mortality rates for pancreatic cancer in China. Methods: After checking and reviewing the cancer registry data in 2009 from 72 cancer registry centers, we divided cancer registry areas into urban and rural areas. Incidence/mortality rates, age-specific incidence/mortality rates, age-standardized incidence/mortality rates, proportions, and cumulative incidence/mortality rates for pancreatic cancer were calculated. Results: The total number of newly diagnosed pancreatic cancer cases and deaths in 2009 were 6,220 and 5,650, respectively. The crude incidence rate in all cancer registry areas was 7.28/100,000 (males 8.24, females 6.29). The age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASR) was 3.35/100,000, with ranking at 7th among all cancers. Pancreatic cancer incidence rate was 8.19/100,000 in urban areas whereas it was 5.41/100 000 in rural areas. Cancer mortality rate in all cancer registry areas was 6.61/100,000 (males 7.45; females 5.75), with ranking at 6th among all cancers, and 7.42/100 000 in urban but 4.94/100000 in rural areas. Conclusions: Pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality rates have shown a gradual increase in China. Owing to the difficulty of early diagnosis, identification of high-risk population and modification of risk factors are important to reduce the burden of pancreatic cancer.