• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권13호
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• pp.5407-5409
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• 2014

Background: In National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP) reports, various rates are routinely provided for 50 cancer sites of males and 54 cancer sites of females. Very often, depending on our interest, we wish to see these rates for group of cancers like head and neck cancers, oral cancers, and reproductive cancers. In such a situation, the desired rates are calculated independently from the actual data and reported. The question is can we derive the rates for groups of cancers from the published reports when the data is provided only for the individual sites? Objective: In the present paper, an attempt is made to explore the mathematical properties of various rates to derive them directly for the group of cancer sites from the published data when the rates are provided only for the individual sites. Source of data: The cancer incidence data collected by two urban Population Based Cancer Registries (PBCRs), under the network of NCRP for the period of 2006-08 was considered for the study purposes. The Registries included were: Bangalore and Bhopal. Results: In the present communication, we have shown that the crude rate (CR), age specific rates and age-adjuste rates (AAR) all possess additive properties. This means, given the above rates for individual sites, the above rates can be calculated for groups of sites by simply adding them. In terms of formula it can be stated that CR(Site1+Site2+++ SiteN) = CR(Site1)+CR(Site2) +++ CR(SiteN). This formula holds good for age specific rates as well as for AAR. This property facilitates the calculation of various rates for defined groups of cancers by simply adding the above rates for individual sites from which they are made up.

• 한국인구학
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.53-88
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• 2006

본 연구의 목적은 장래인구추계를 위하여 논리적이고 상대적으로 정확한 연령별 출산율의 가정치를 설정하는 것이다. 먼저 코호트별 출산순위별 연령별 출산율의 추정과 추계를 위하여 Coale-McNeil 모형을 일반화한 로그감마분포모형을 선택한다. 다음은 보정형의 연령별 출산율 모형을 재생산을 완료하지 않은 상대적으로 젊은 출생코호트를 포함하는 실적치 자료에 맞추기 위하여, 출산력 파라메터를 추정하는 방법을 설명한다. 본 연구는 일련의 출생코호트의 출생순위별 연령별 출산율을 역출하여, 장래의 특정연도 대하여 연령별 출산율을 추계한다. 가령, 2010년의 20세의 연령별 출산율은 1990년에 태어난 출생코호트의 20세에서의 연령별 출산율이고, 2010년의 21세의 연령별 출산율은 1989년에 태어난 출생코호트의 21세에서의 연령별 출산율에 해당한다. 결국 2010년에 태어난 코호트까지의 연령별 출산율의 추계치를 얻게 되면, 2055년도 까지의 기간별(연도별_령별 출산율에 대한 가정치를 설정할 수 있다. 본 연구의 출산력 가정치와 통계청의 2005년 장래인구 특별추계의 가정치 사이에 차이가 나는 것은 털 연구의 출산예측모형에서 혼인연령의 상승과 독신여성의 증가로 인한 출산력 저하의 최근 추세를 제대로 반영하였기 때문이라고 할 수 있으며, 이러한 점에서 본 연구의 출산력 가정치가 논리적이고 합리적이라고 주장할 수 있을 것이다. 그러나 장래인구추계와 관련하여, 출산력 가정치 설정을 위한 출산예측모형의 본질적 과제는 어떻게 기간효과(를 슬기롭게 다루느냐 하는 것이다. 코호트모형을 근간으로 하여, 최근의 실적치를 바탕으로 약간의 기간적 수정을 하는 것을 제외하고는 기간효과를 별도로 취급하기는 쉽지 않다.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.347-373
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• 2021

지난 50여 년 동안 우리나라의 사망률 감소 패턴에 대한 탐색적 연구에 의하면 연령별 사망률이 모든 연령에서 감소했지만, 특정한 사망률이 개선되고 있는 패턴은 연령과 기간에 따라 다르다는 것을 알 수 있다. 여자가 남자보다 사망률 개선이 뚜렷하고 특히 시간이 지나면서 특정그룹에서의 사망률 개선이 두드러짐에 따라 전반적으로 사망 시간 추세에 구조적인 변화가 존재함을 확인하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 우리나라 여자 사망률 자료를 이용하여 미래 사망률 예측을 위해 코호트 효과를 고려한 다양한 확률적 사망률 모형을 살펴보았다. 또한 분석 결과를 바탕으로 2067년까지 연령별 사망률과 예측기대수명을 작성하고 통계청(KOSIS)에서 제공하는 장래 연령별 사망률과 기대수명과 비교하였다. 자료이용기간에 따라 최적의 모형이 상이하나 적합력과 예측력을 전반적으로 고려했을 때 우리나라 여자 사망률은 코호트 효과를 고려한 PLAT 모형이 적절하다 볼 수 있을 것이다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.119-134
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• 2021

Lung cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths in the world. Investigation of mortality rates is pivotal to adequately understand the determinants causing this disease, allocate public health resources, and apply different control measures. Our study aims to analyze and forecast age-specific US lung cancer mortality trends. We report functions of mortality rates for different age groups by incorporating functional principal component analysis to understand the underlying mortality trend with respect to time. The mortality rates of lung cancer have been higher in men than in women. These rates have been decreasing for all age groups since 1990 in men. The same pattern is observed for women since 2000 except for the age group 85 and above. No significant changes in mortality rates in lower age groups have been reported for both gender. Lung cancer mortality rates for males are relatively higher than females. Ten-year predictions of mortality rates depict a continuous decline for both gender with no apparent change for lower age groups (below 40).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권6호
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• pp.2461-2464
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• 2014

Background: Cancer accounts for 12.6% of total deaths in the world (just after heart disease). Materials and Methods: Frequency and age-specific incidence rates of breast and gynecologic cancers in Iran are calculated based on the dataset of the National Cancer Registry of Iran in 2005. Results: Gynecologic and breast cancer accounted for 7.6% and 25.6% of total cancer cases, respectively. Ovarian cancer was the most frequent gynecologic cancer followed by endometrium. Endometrial cancer revealed the highest age specific incidence rate followed by ovary (after 59 years). Conclusions: Regarding disease burden, breast and gynecologic cases account for 33.4% of total cancer patients. The age specific incidence rate is a useful guide in epidemiologic and future plans.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제52권2호
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• pp.123-130
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• 2019

Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of shifts in maternal age and parity on the increasing trends in the low birth weight (LBW) and very low birth weight (VLBW) rates from 2005 to 2015 in South Korea. Methods: Data from 4 993 041 live births registered with Statistics Korea during the period between 2005 and 2015 were analyzed. Applying a modified standardization method, we partitioned the total increment in the LBW and VLBW rates into (1) the increase in the LBW and VLBW rates due to changes in the maternal age and parity distribution (AP-dis) and (2) the increase due to changes in the age-specific and parity-specific rates (AP-spe) of LBW and VLBW for singleton and multiple births, respectively. Results: During the study period, the total increment in the LBW and VLBW rates was 1.43%p and 0.25%p, respectively. Among singleton births, changes in the AP-dis accounted for 79% (0.34%p) and 50% (0.06%p) of the total increment in the LBW and VLBW rates, respectively. Meanwhile, among multiple births, changes in the AP-dis did not contribute to the increase in the LBW and VLBW rates, with 100% of the increase in the LBW (1.00%p) and VLBW (0.13%p) rates being attributed to changes in the AP-spe. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that shifts in maternal age and parity were prominent contributors to the increase in the LBW and VLBW rates among singleton births between 2005 and 2015 in South Korea.

• 한국인구학
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.1-23
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• 2009

본 논문에서는 설문조사자료를 이용하여 1940년대 이후 출생한 우리나라 여성들의 연령별 출산율, 연령별 누적출산율, 결혼연령을 5개의 출생코호트별로 살펴보고 위험도 모형을 이용하여 결혼연령 및 결혼 이후 초산까지의 간격에 영향을 미치는 요인을 각각 분석하였다. 먼저 연령별 출산율을 보면 출생시기가 늦은 코호트일수록 출산율이 최고수준에 이르는 연령이 높아지는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 연령별 누적출산율은 50년대 코호트와 60년대 코호트의 경우 각각 직전 코호트에 비해 누적출산율이 크게 하락하였으나 70년대 코호트나 80년대 코호트는 60년대 코호트에 비해 누적출산율에 있어서 별다른 차이를 보이지 않았다. 결혼연령을 보면 최근의 출생코호트로 올수록 결혼연령이 높아졌다. 한편, 결혼 위험도 모형을 추정한 결과에 의하면 여성의 출생시기가 늦을수록 그리고 교육수준이 높을수록 결혼연령이 높아지는 것으로 나타났으며 특히 출생시기의 영향은 그간 진행된 여성의 취업기회의 확대와 여성의 상대적 지위의 향상 등 경제적 및 사회문화적 변화를 종합적으로 반영하는 것으로 해석된다. 다음으로 결혼 이후 첫 자녀의 출산 위험도의 경우에는 출생시기나 결혼시기 모두 유의한 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 분석되었다. 한편, 결혼 이후에도 상당기간 취업상태를 유지한 여성의 경우 출산 위험도가 크게 낮았으며 또한 중졸 이하 학력을 가진 여성은 여타 수준의 학력을 가진 여성에 비해 출산 위험도가 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 이는 여성의 취업이나 낮은 가구소득이 출산율을 낮추는 중요한 요인임을 의미하는 것으로 중요한 정책적 시사점을 가진다.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권22호
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• pp.9731-9737
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• 2014

Large scale secular registry or surveillance systems have been accumulating vast data that allow mathematical modeling of cancer incidence and mortality rates. Most contemporary models in this regard use time series and APC (age-period-cohort) methods and focus primarily on predicting or analyzing cancer epidemiology with little attention being paid to implications for designing cancer registry, surveillance or evaluation initiatives. This research models age-specific cancer incidence rates using logistic growth equations and explores their performance under different scenarios of data completeness in the hope of deriving clues for reshaping relevant data collection. The study used China Cancer Registry Report 2012 as the data source. It employed 3-parameter logistic growth equations and modeled the age-specific incidence rates of all and the top 10 cancers presented in the registry report. The study performed 3 types of modeling, namely full age-span by fitting, multiple 5-year-segment fitting and single-segment fitting. Measurement of model performance adopted adjusted goodness of fit that combines sum of squred residuals and relative errors. Both model simulation and performance evalation utilized self-developed algorithms programed using C# languade and MS Visual Studio 2008. For models built upon full age-span data, predicted age-specific cancer incidence rates fitted very well with observed values for most (except cervical and breast) cancers with estimated goodness of fit (Rs) being over 0.96. When a given cancer is concerned, the R valuae of the logistic growth model derived using observed data from urban residents was greater than or at least equal to that of the same model built on data from rural people. For models based on multiple-5-year-segment data, the Rs remained fairly high (over 0.89) until 3-fourths of the data segments were excluded. For models using a fixed length single-segment of observed data, the older the age covered by the corresponding data segment, the higher the resulting Rs. Logistic growth models describe age-specific incidence rates perfectly for most cancers and may be used to inform data collection for purposes of monitoring and analyzing cancer epidemic. Helped by appropriate logistic growth equations, the work vomume of contemporary data collection, e.g., cancer registry and surveilance systems, may be reduced substantially.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제15권17호
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• pp.7281-7285
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• 2014

Background: Gastric cancer is the second most common gastrointestinal cancer and is more common in the East, compared to the West. This study assesses the trend of gastric cancers in Brunei Darussalam, a developing nation with a predominantly Malay population. Materials and Methods: The cancer registry from 1986 to 2012 maintained by the Department of Pathology, the only State Laboratory at the RIPAS Hospital, Ministry of Health, was reviewed and data extracted for analyses. The age standardised rate (ASR) and age specific incidence rate were calculated based on the projected population. Cancers diagnosed below 45 years were categorised as young gastric cancer. Results: Over the study period, there were a total of 551 cases of gastric cancer diagnosed. The most common type was adenocarcinoma (87.9%), followed by lymphoma (6.1%) and gastrointestinal stromal tumour (2.8%). The overall mean age at diagnosis was 61.9 years old (range 15 to 98) with an increasing trend observed, but this was not significant (ANOVA). There were differences in the mean age at diagnosis for the different races (p=0.003 for trend), but not the gender (p=0.105). Young gastric cancer accounted for 14.9%, being more common in women, and in Expatriate and Malay populations compared to the Chinese. There was a decrease in the ASR, from 17.3/100,000 in 1986-1990 to 12.5/100,000 in 2006-2010. Chinese had a higher overall ASR (20.2/100,000) compared to the Malays (11.8/100,000). The age specific rates were comparable between men and women until the age group 55-59 years when the rates started to diverge, becoming higher in men. Chinese men had higher rates then Malay men whereas, the rates were higher or comparable between the women until the age group >70 when the rate for Chinese women overtook their Malay counterpart. Conclusions: Our study showed that there is a declining trend in the incidence of gastric cancer and higher rates were observed in men and Chinese.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제37권1호
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• pp.44-51
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• 2007

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to compare suicide mortality by region in South Korea. Method: Suicide mortality differentials were calculated for several mortality indicators by geographical regions from raw data of the cause of death from KNSO. Results: The results are as follows; the Crude suicide death rate was 22.63 per 100,000. The highest was in Kangwon showing 37.84% whereas, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk followed after. Suicide was 4.4% of all causes of death, but Inchon and Ulsan showed a higher proportion. The male suicide death rate was 31.12 per 100,000 and females 14.09. The ratio of gender suicide mortality was 2.21, per 100,000 and was the highest in Jeju. For age-specific suicide death rates, the rate increased as age advanced, showing 2.33 per 100,000 in 0-19years, 18.68 in 20-39, 30.48 in 40-59, 63.33 in 60 years and over. In Ulsan, Kangwon, and Inchon, age-specific suicide death rates of the 60 and over age group were higher than other regions, Daegu, Busan, and Kangwon showed a higher age-specific suicide mortality of the 40-59 age group, and Kangwon, Jeonnam, and Chungnam had a higher age-specific suicide mortality of the 20-39 age group. Conclusions: Suicide mortality differed by region. These results can be used for a regional health care plan and planning for suicide prevention by regions.