• 한국안전학회지
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.79-87
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• 2009

The objective of this study is to develop accident scenario models for the risk assessment of railway casualty accidents. To develop these scenario models, hazardous events and hazardous factors were identified by gathering various accident reports and information. Then, the accident scenario models were built up. Each accident scenario model consists of an occurrence scenario model and a progress scenario model. The occurrence scenario refers to the occurrence process of the event before the hazardous event. The progress scenario means the progress process of the event after the hazardous event. To manage a large amount of accident/incident data and scenarios, a railway accident analysis information system was developed using railway accident scenario models. To test the feasibility of the developed scenario models, more than 800 domestic railway casualty accidents that occurred in 2004 and 2005 were investigated and quantitative and qualitative analyses were performed using the developed information system.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.165-172
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• 2017

현행 해양유출사고 시나리오는 예상가능한 최대 유출사고를 근거로 하여 시나리오가 작성되었다. 하지만, 최대유출사고 시나리오와 유사한 규모의 사고는 실제 거의 일어나지 않았는데, 이러한 시나리오를 바탕으로 한 훈련이나 대응장비배치 등은 대비 측면에서 본다면 낮은 비용효율을 가지는 것으로 볼 수 있다. 현행의 시나리오는 활용성과 현장도가 높은 시나리오 구현을 통한 실전에 가까운 형태로 구성될 필요가 있고, 활용 목적에 적합하도록 설계될 필요가 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 과거 사고사례를 바탕으로 한 시나리오 작성을 위해 기 개발된 HNS 사고 표준코드를 활용하여 현행 시나리오를 대체할 수 있는 대체 사고 시나리오(Alternative Accident Scenario)를 구성하고자 하였다. 시나리오는 HNS 사고 표준코드를 모듈화하여 최대 빈도 시나리오, 최대 피해 시나리오, 최대 취약성 시나리오 3가지로 구분하여 작성하였다. 이런 과정을 거쳐 제시된 각 시나리오별로 제시된 사고발생 상황은 실제 사고와 유사한 형태를 나타내므로 현장에서의 합목적적인 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2005년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.151-156
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• 2005

The objective of this study is to devise an accident scenario analysis method adept at creating accident scenarios at the Preliminary Hazard Analysis(PHA) step of a hazard analysis for railway system. This approach was inspired by the Quality Function Deployment(QFD) method, which is conventionally used in quality management and was used at the systematic accident scenario analysis(SASA) for the design of safer products. In this study, the QFD provides a formal and systematic schema to devise accident scenarios while maintaining objective. The accident scenario analysis method first identifies the hazard factors that cause railway accidents and explains the situation characteristics surrounding the accident. This method includes a feasibility test, a clustering process and a pattering process for a clearer understanding of the accident situation. Since this method enables an accident scenario analysis method to be performed systematically as well as objectively, this method is useful in building better accident prevention strategies. Therefore, this study can serve to reduce railway accident and be an effective tool for a hazard analysis.

• 산업공학
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.114-125
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• 2002

The objective of this paper is to describe a systematic accident scenario analysis method(SASA) adept at creating accident scenarios for the design of safer products. This approach was inspired by the Quality Function Deployment(QFD) method, which is conventionally used in quality management. In this study, the QFD provides a formal and systematic scheme to devise accident scenarios while maintaining objectivity. SASA consists of three key stages to be broken down into a series of consecutive steps:(1) developing an accident analysis tableau,(2) devising the accident scenarios using the accident analysis tableau,(3) performing a feasibility test, a clustering process and a patterning process, and finally(4) performing quantitative evaluation of each accident scenario. The SASA was applied to a case study of child safety seats. The accident analysis tableau devised 2828(maximum) accident scenarios from all possible relationships between the hazard factors and situation characteristics. Among them, 270 scenarios were devised through the feasibility test and the clustering process. The patterning process reduced them to 29 patterns representative of all accident scenarios. Based on an intensive analysis of the accident patterns, design guidelines for a safer child safety seat were recommended. The implications of the study on the child safety seat case were then discussed.

• 자동차안전학회지
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• 제10권4호
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• pp.40-49
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• 2018

Currently, a lot of researches about high risk test scenarios for autonomous vehicle and advanced driver assistance systems have been carried out to evaluate driving safety. This study proposes new type of test scenario that evaluate the driving safety for autonomous vehicle by reconstructing accident database of national automotive sampling system crashworthiness data system (NASS-CDS). NASS-CDS has a lot of detailed accident data in real fields, but there is no data of accurate velocity in accident moments. So in order to propose scenario generation method from accident database, we try to reconstruct accident moment from accident sketch diagram. At the same step, we propose an accident of occurrence frequency which is based on accident codes and road shapes. The reconstruction paths from accident database are integrated into evaluation of simulation environment. Our proposed methods and processor are applied to MILS (Model In the Loop Simulation) and VILS (Vehicle In the Loop Simulation) test environments. In this paper, a reasonable method of accident reconstruction typology for autonomous vehicle evaluation of feasibility is proposed.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제20권6호
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• pp.677-684
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• 2014

해양사고 발생시 대응능력 향상을 위해 대응훈련 및 이를 위한 시나리오 개발이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 위험유해물질 유출사고 대응체계 구축의 일환으로 가상 위험유해물질 유출사고에 대한 대응 시나리오를 개발하였다. 가상 시나리오는 부산 해역을 대상으로 개발하였으며, 대상해역에서 발생될 수 있는 가상 사고 시나리오와 이에 대한 대응 시나리오를 각각 개발하였다. 가상 사고 시나리오는 대상해역인 부산해역의 위험평가 및 취약성분석을 통해 발생될 수 있는 위험유해물질 유출사고를 선정하고, 가상 사고로 인해 발생될 수 있는 피해를 예측하여 구축되었다. 가상 사고에 대한 대응 시나리오는 가상 사고 시나리오의 피해예측에서 제시된 피해를 수습하기 위한 단계별 조치사항으로서 제시하였다. 부산해역의 위험유해물질 가상 유출사고는 부산 감천항 충돌사고로 인한 자일렌(xylene) 1,000톤 유출사고로 선정하였으며, 이로 인한 피해는 자일렌의 대기확산 및 해양확산 계산을 통해 예측하였다. 또한 가상 사고에 대한 대응 시나리오는 피해지역의 주민 대피, 자일렌 확산 방지 및 회수, 대응요원 보호조치, 사고지역 사후 관리 등에 대한 단계별 조치사항을 제시하였다.

• 한국가스학회지
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.37-42
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• 2004

본 연구는 계절별 기후상태를 고려한 정성적 및 정량적 위험성 평가에 의해 최악의 시나리오와 가능성이 높은 시나리오를 설정하고, 비용-편익분석에 의해 시나리오별 안전관리비의 효율을 평가하였다. 그 결과, 최악의 시나리오는 비정상조업에서 유지보수 오류이었고, 가능성이 높은 시나리오는 HAZOP 구간 $\sharp$4에서 발생되는 가스 누출사고이었다. 또한 각 시나리오에서 전체 안전관리비에 대한 편익/비용과 효과적인 안전관리 항목을 평가할 수 있었다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제55권10호
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• pp.3787-3800
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• 2023

Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) scenarios require special attention using advanced simulation techniques due to their complexity and importance for nuclear power plant (NPP) safety. While the conservative approach has traditionally been used for safety analysis, it may lead to unrealistic results which calls for the use of best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) approach, especially with the current advances in computational power which makes the BEPU analysis feasible. In this work an Uncontrolled Control Element Assembly (CEA) Withdrawal at Full Power accident scenario is analyzed using the BEPU approach by loosely coupling the thermal hydraulics best-estimate system code (RELAP5/SCDAPSIM/MOD3.4) to the statistical analysis software (DAKOTA) using a Python interface. Results from the BEPU analysis indicate that a realistic treatment of the accident scenario yields a larger safety margin and is therefore encouraged for accident analysis as it may enable more economic and flexible operation.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.62-69
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• 1999

The quantitative risk assessment and consequence analysis by accident scenario in the process of EPS(Expendable Poly Stylene) reaction process are conducted. And the decision making process is studied followed by selecting various alternatives to safety management and facility improvement. The result are as follows; 1) The object of decision making through comprehensive risk assessment are the scenario which can cause four major accident, which are made by process analysis, work analysis and hazard identification. 2) Frequency analysis of ETA, FTA, HRA and consequence analysis of accident to each have been conducted. The each frequency values are yielded $9.2{\times}10_{-5}/yr$ to scenarios $1, 8.2{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ to scenario 2, $4.5{\times}10^{-6}/yr$ scenario 3 and $1.8{\times}10^{-7}/yr$ to scenario 4. The each scenarios have been conducted consequence analysis. 3) The calculated values have been obtained 4.00 to scenario 1, 3.25 to scenario 2, 2.43 to scenario 3 and 1.34 to scenario 4, as the weight value had been applied to the quantitative and normalized criteria of all components. As a risk criteria, scenario 1 have been selected, which is the most dangerous scenario as a result of ranking the scenario. 4) According to the importance of FTA and contribute to scenario 1, the cost-benefit values are yielded $8.05\times10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(Al), $1.55{\times}10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(A2) and $2.32{\times}10^5[￦/yr]$ to final alternative(A3). As a result of final alternative(Al) has been selected, which is the most optimized alternative.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2007년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1227-1232
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• 2007

The objective of this study is to develop qualification analysis preliminary frame for railway personal injury accident. In this research, we develop accident scenarios to analyze systematically and evaluate quantitatively fatality accident scenarios for railway personal. The accident scenario analysis first identifies the hazardous events and explains the hazardous conditions that surround the accident and cause railway accidents. This method includes a feasibility test, a clustering process and a pattering process for a clearer understanding of the accident situation. Since this method enables an accident scenario analysis to be performed systematically as well as objectively, this method is useful in building better accident prevention strategies. Therefore, this study could serve to reduce railway accidents and could be an effective tool for a hazard analysis.