• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident rate model

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Accident Prevention Model Using Signal Detection Theory: Case of Shipbuilding Industry

  • Pyo, Yeon;Park, Myoung Hwan;Jeong, Byung Yong
    • Journal of the Ergonomics Society of Korea
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2017
  • Objective: The purpose of this study is to draw the accident prevention model using the signal detection theory, and to implement accident prevention program, based on a health promotion and support activities in a shipbuilding company. Background: Workers' health management is perceived important from the human resource management perspective, as well as from the personal perspective. Method: This study developed an accident prevention model by analyzing the correlation between 704 workers' health examination variables, and reviewed the verification of the model through a follow-up survey on the control variables and status of hazards targeting 650 workers for four years from 2007 to 2010. Also, a health promotion program was implemented targeting a production division to improve alcohol habits, smoking, musculoskeletal pain complaints and hearing control indices, which are the control variables of the model. Results: As a result of four years' implementation, the following effects were obtained: the days away from work fell 87.5%, and accident rate dropped 71.5% in 2010, respectively, compared to 2006, before the activity was implemented. Conclusion: This study shows that the accident prevention activities based on workers' health promotion activities are effective to prevent industrial accidents and injuries. Application: The research findings will serve as a practical guideline for establishing preventive measures in the shipbuilding company.

Analysis of Road Cross Section Component Affecting Traffic Accident Severity on National Highway (국도상 교통사고 심각도에 영향을 미치는 횡단구성 요소 분석)

  • Park, Jaehong;Yun, Dukgeun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.143-149
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    • 2017
  • According to traffic accidents statistics, the number of fatalities, injuries and the rate of increase of traffic accidents have been decreasing over last 5-years. The fatality rate is 1.9 for total accidents but the fatality rate for single vehicle accidents shows a 7.9, which is 4 times greater than the average for all accidents. Single vehicle accidents, usually occur as a vehicle impacts a fixed objects on the roadside as the vehicle runs-off from the road. However, few researches have been conducted considering the accident severity of single vehicle accidents which impact to the fixed objects on the road. The single vehicle accident is directly related to the composition of road cross section, (since it is the required the minimum width of a road for all run-off-the-road vehicles to recover or come to a safe stop). Therefore, this study analyzes the influence of road cross section on traffic accidents to find out the severity of single vehicle accident. To analyze the road elements which are related to the accident severity, the Ordered Probit Model was used. As variables, the element of road cross section such as the radius(m), vertical curve(%), cross sectional grade(%), road width(m). number of climbing lane, median, and curb, were used (as was the 3-years of accidents data). This study found out that cross slope(%), road width(m), and the number of climbing lane are related to the severity of accident. The result of this study could be expected to improve the road safety and to be used as the base data for further road safety research.

Control Strategy for Industrial Safety Based on Dynamic Modeling of Safety Budget-Industrial Accidents Relationship (안전예산-산재간 동적모델을 이용한 산업안전제어 전략)

  • Choi, Gi-Heung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2011
  • This study focuses on the control strategy for industrial safety in Korea. Specifically, the effect of safety budget such as the industrial accident prevention fund on the safety performance to prevent and reduce industrial accidents is statistically examined first and modeled as a second order system. The effectiveness of such a dynamic model is also explained with a simple PI control mechanism in a feedback loop. The simulated model, however, suggests that, without improving the efficiency of the safety system, extra safety budget needed to decrease the accident rate to a level in advanced countries is far beyond the social consensus. An efficient way of reducing industrial accidents based on such a dynamic model with more internal damping but with less elastic nature in a feedback loop framework needs to be implemented.

Development of the U-turn Accident Model at 4-Legged Signalized Intersections in Urban Areas (도시부 4지 신호교차로 유턴 사고모형 개발)

  • Kang, JongHo;Kim, KyungWhan;Ha, ManBok;Kim, SeongMun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.119-129
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop the U-turn accident model at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas. METHODS : In order to analyze the characteristics of the accidents which are associated with U-turn operation at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas and develop an U-turn accident model by regression analysis, the tests of overdispersion and zero-inflation are conducted about the dependent variables of number of accidents and EPDO (Equivalent Property Damage Only). RESULTS : As their results, the Poisson model fits best for number of accident and the ZIP (Zero Inflated Poisson) fits best for EPOD, the variables of conflict traffic, width of opposing road, traffic passing speed are adopted as independent variable for both models. The variables of number of bus berths and rate of U-turn signal time at which the U-turn is permitted are adopted as independent variable only for EPDO. CONCLUSIONS : These study results suggest that U-turn would be permitted at the intersection where the width of opposing road is wider than 11.9 meters, the passing vehicle speed is not high and U-turn operation is not hindered by the buses stopping at bus stops.

The Prediction of Industrial Accident Rate in Korea: A Time Series Analysis (시계열분석을 통한 산업재해율 예측)

  • Choi, Eunsuk;Jeon, Gyeong-Suk;Lee, Won Kee;Kim, Young Sun
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to predict industrial accident rate using time series analysis. Methods: The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death were analyzed using industrial accident statistics analysis system of the Korea Occupational Safety and Health Agency from 2001 to 2014. Time series analysis was done using the most recent data, such as raw materials of Economically Active Population Survey, Economic Statistics System of the Bank of Korea, and e-National indicators. The best-fit model with time series analysis to predict occupational injury was developed by identifying predictors when the value of Akaike Information Criteria was the lowest point. Variables into the model were selected through a series of expertises' consultations and literature review, which consisted of socioeconomic structure, labor force structure, working conditions, and occupational accidents. Results: Indexes at the meso- and macro-levels predicting well occurrence of occupational accidents and occupational injury death were labor force participation rate for ages 45-49 and budget for small scaled workplace support. The rates of industrial accident and occupational injury death are expected to decline. Conclusion: For reducing industrial accident continuously, we call for safe employment policy of economically active middle aged adults and support for improving safety work environment of small sized workplace.

Development of Traffic Accident Rate Forecasting Models for Trumpet IC Exit Ramp of Freeway using Variables Transformation Method (변수변환 기법을 이용한 고속도로 트럼펫IC 유출연결로 교통사고율 예측모형 개발)

  • Yoon, Byoung-Jo
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.139-150
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    • 2008
  • In this study, It is focused on development of the forecasting model about trumpet InterChange(IC) ramp accident because of the frequency of accident in ramp more than highway basic section and trend the increasing accident in ramp. The independent variables was selected through statistical analysis(correlation analysis, multi-collinearity etc) by ramp types(direct, semi-direct and loop). The independent variables and accident rate is non-linear relationship. So it made new variables by transformation of the independent variables. The forecasting models according to exit-ramp type (direct, semi-direct and loop) are built with statistical multi-variable regression using all possible regression method. And the forecasts of the models showed high accuracy statistically. It is expected that the developed models could be employed to design trumpet IC ramp more cost-efficiently and safely and to analyze the causes of traffic accidents happened on the IC ramp.

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Development for City Bus Dirver's Accident Occurrence Prediction Model Based on Digital Tachometer Records (디지털 운행기록에 근거한 시내버스 운전자의 사고발생 예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Jung-yeul;Kum, Ki-jung
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2016
  • This study aims to develop a model by which city bus drivers who are likely to cause an accident can be figured out based on the information about their actual driving records. For this purpose, from the information about the actual driving records of the drivers who have caused an accident and those who have not caused any, significance variables related to traffic accidents are drawn, and the accuracy between models is compared for the classification models developed, applying a discriminant analysis and logistic regression analysis. In addition, the developed models are applied to the data on other drivers' driving records to verify the accuracy of the models. As a result of developing a model for the classification of drivers who are likely to cause an accident, when deceleration ($X_{deceleration}$) and acceleration to the right ($Y_{right}$) are simultaneously in action, this variable was drawn as the optimal factor variable of the classification of drivers who had caused an accident, and the prediction model by discriminant analysis classified drivers who had caused an accident at a rate up to 62.8%, and the prediction model by logistic regression analysis could classify those who had caused an accident at a rate up to 76.7%. In addition, as a result of the verification of model predictive power of the models showed an accuracy rate of 84.1%.

Pattern Analysis of Traffic Accident data and Prediction of Victim Injury Severity Using Hybrid Model (교통사고 데이터의 패턴 분석과 Hybrid Model을 이용한 피해자 상해 심각도 예측)

  • Ju, Yeong Ji;Hong, Taek Eun;Shin, Ju Hyun
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2016
  • Although Korea's economic and domestic automobile market through the change of road environment are growth, the traffic accident rate has also increased, and the casualties is at a serious level. For this reason, the government is establishing and promoting policies to open traffic accident data and solve problems. In this paper, describe the method of predicting traffic accidents by eliminating the class imbalance using the traffic accident data and constructing the Hybrid Model. Using the original traffic accident data and the sampled data as learning data which use FP-Growth algorithm it learn patterns associated with traffic accident injury severity. Accordingly, In this paper purpose a method for predicting the severity of a victim of a traffic accident by analyzing the association patterns of two learning data, we can extract the same related patterns, when a decision tree and multinomial logistic regression analysis are performed, a hybrid model is constructed by assigning weights to related attributes.

Proposed TATI Model for Predicting the Traffic Accident Severity (교통사고 심각 정도 예측을 위한 TATI 모델 제안)

  • Choo, Min-Ji;Park, So-Hyun;Park, Young-Ho
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.301-310
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    • 2021
  • The TATI model is a Traffic Accident Text to RGB Image model, which is a methodology proposed in this paper for predicting the severity of traffic accidents. Traffic fatalities are decreasing every year, but they are among the low in the OECD members. Many studies have been conducted to reduce the death rate of traffic accidents, and among them, studies have been steadily conducted to reduce the incidence and mortality rate by predicting the severity of traffic accidents. In this regard, research has recently been active to predict the severity of traffic accidents by utilizing statistical models and deep learning models. In this paper, traffic accident dataset is converted to color images to predict the severity of traffic accidents, and this is done via CNN models. For performance comparison, we experiment that train the same data and compare the prediction results with the proposed model and other models. Through 10 experiments, we compare the accuracy and error range of four deep learning models. Experimental results show that the accuracy of the proposed model was the highest at 0.85, and the second lowest error range at 0.03 was shown to confirm the superiority of the performance.

Control of Industrial Safety Based on Dynamic Characteristics of a Safety Budget-Industrial Accident Rate Model in Republic of Korea

  • Choi, Gi Heung;Loh, Byoung Gook
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2017
  • Background: Despite the recent efforts to prevent industrial accidents in the Republic of Korea, the industrial accident rate has not improved much. Industrial safety policies and safety management are also known to be inefficient. This study focused on dynamic characteristics of industrial safety systems and their effects on safety performance in the Republic of Korea. Such dynamic characteristics are particularly important for restructuring of the industrial safety system. Methods: The effects of damping and elastic characteristics of the industrial safety system model on safety performance were examined and feedback control performance was explained in view of cost and benefit. The implications on safety policies of restructuring the industrial safety system were also explored. Results: A strong correlation between the safety budget and the industrial accident rate enabled modeling of an industrial safety system with these variables as the input and the output, respectively. A more effective and efficient industrial safety system could be realized by having weaker elastic characteristics and stronger damping characteristics in it. A substantial decrease in total social cost is expected as the industrial safety system is restructured accordingly. Conclusion: A simple feedback control with proportional-integral action is effective in prevention of industrial accidents. Securing a lower level of elastic industrial accident-driving energy appears to have dominant effects on the control performance compared with the damping effort to dissipate such energy. More attention needs to be directed towards physical and social feedbacks that have prolonged cumulative effects. Suggestions for further improvement of the safety system including physical and social feedbacks are also made.