• 제목/요약/키워드: accident predictor model

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A Classification Model for Predicting the Injured Body Part in Construction Accidents in Korea

  • Lim, Jiseon;Cho, Sungjin;Kang, Sanghyeok
    • 국제학술발표논문집
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    • The 9th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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    • pp.230-237
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    • 2022
  • It is difficult to predict industrial accidents in the construction industry because many accident factors, such as human-related factors and environment-related factors, affect the accidents. Many studies have analyzed the severity of injuries and types of accidents; however, there were few studies on the prediction of injured body parts. This study aims to develop a classification model to predict the part of the injured body based on accident-related factors. Construction accident cases from June 2018 to July 2021 provided by the Korea Construction Safety Management Integrated Information were collected through web crawling and then preprocessed. A naïve Bayes classifier, one of the supervised learning algorithms, was employed to construct a classification model of the injured body part, which has four categories: 1) torso, 2) upper extremity, 3) head, and 4) lower extremity. The predictor variables are accident type, type of work, facility type, injury source, and activity type. As a result, the average accuracy for each injured body part was 50.4%. The accuracy of the upper extremity and lower extremity was relatively higher than the cases of the torso and head. Unlike the other classifications, such as spam mail filtering, a naïve Bayes classifier does not provide a good classification performance in construction accidents. The reasons are discussed in the study. Based on the results of this study, more detailed guidelines for construction safety management can be provided, which help establish safety measures at the construction site.

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전통적 사고예측모형의 한계 및 개선방안 : Hauer 사고예측모형의 소개 및 적용 (What goes problematic in the Existing Accident Prediction Models and How to Make it Better)

  • 한상진;김근정;오순미
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제10권1호
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    • pp.19-29
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    • 2008
  • 사고예측모형은 도로에서 발생한 교통사고자료를 통계적으로 모형화한 것으로 종속변수는 과거의 사고건수가 되고 설명 변수로는 주로 사고가 일어난 장소의 도로 기하구조 조건, 교통조건, 운영조건 등 도료의 속성자료가 이용된다. 기존의 사고예측모형의 한계를 극복하고자 새로운 방안인 Hauer의 연구를 구체적으로 소개하고 이를 국내 고속도로 사망사고자료를 통해 적용하였다. Hauer의 방법론에 의한 사고예측모형을 구축한 결과 AADT와 종단구배를 통해 사고예측모형의 적합도를 상당히 높일 수 있었으나, 곡선반경은 사고건수와 직접적 인 관련이 있는 것으로 파악되지 않았다. 이러한 사고예측모형은 기존의 모형과 비교 시 여러 설명변수 중 어떤 변수가 모형에 도입되어야 하는지를 결정할 때 분명한 근거를 지니기 때문에 중요한 변수가 누락되거나 혹은 중요하지 않는 변수가 도입될 가능성 이 낮아지는 장점을 지니고 있다.

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A Systematic Approach for Mechanical Integrity Evaluation on the Degraded Cladding Tube of Spent Nuclear Fuel Under Transportation Pinch Force

  • Lee, Seong-Ki;Park, Joon-Kyoo;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • 방사성폐기물학회지
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.307-322
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    • 2021
  • This study developed an analytical methodology for the mechanical integrity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) cladding tubes under external pinch loads during transportation, with reference to the failure mode specified in the relevant guidelines. Special consideration was given to the degraded characteristics of SNF during dry storage, including oxide and hydride contents and orientations. The developed framework reflected a composite cladding model of elastic and plastic analysis approaches and correlation equations related to the mechanical parameters. The established models were employed for modeling the finite elements by coding their physical behaviors. A mechanical integrity evaluation of 14 × 14 PWR SNF was performed using this system. To ensure that the damage criteria met the applicable legal requirements, stress-strain analysis results were separated into elastic and plastic regions with the concept of strain energy, considering both normal and hypothetical accident conditions. Probabilistic procedures using Monte Carlo simulations and reliability evaluations were included. The evaluation results showed no probability of damage under the normal conditions, whereas there were small but considerably low probabilities under accident conditions. These results indicate that the proposed approach is a reliable predictor of SNF mechanical integrity.

PREDICTION OF FREE SURFACE FLOW ON CONTAINMENT FLOOR USING A SHALLOW WATER EQUATION SOLVER

  • Bang, Young-Seok;Lee, Gil-Soo;Huh, Byung-Gil;Oh, Deog-Yeon;Woo, Sweng-Woong
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제41권8호
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    • pp.1045-1052
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    • 2009
  • A calculation model is developed to predict the transient free surface flow on the containment floor following a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) of pressurized water reactors (PWR) for the use of debris transport evaluation. The model solves the two-dimensional Shallow Water Equation (SWE) using a finite volume method (FVM) with unstructured triangular meshes. The numerical scheme is based on a fully explicit predictor-corrector method to achieve a fast-running capability and numerical accuracy. The Harten-Lax-van Leer (HLL) scheme is used to reserve a shock-capturing capability in determining the convective flux term at the cell interface where the dry-to-wet changing proceeds. An experiment simulating a sudden break of a water reservoir with L-shape open channel is calculated for validation of the present model. It is shown that the present model agrees well with the experiment data, thus it can be justified for the free surface flow with accuracy. From the calculation of flow field over the simplified containment floor of APR1400, the important phenomena of free surface flow including propagations and interactions of waves generated by local water level distribution and reflection with a solid wall are found and the transient flow rates entering the Holdup Volume Tank (HVT) are obtained within a practical computational resource.

버스 운전자들의 성격 특성과 안전 직무수행 및 교통사고와의 관계 (The Relationship among bus Driver's Personality Traits, Safety Job Performance and Traffic Accidents)

  • 안우현;이선희;박선영
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.68-75
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    • 2014
  • The study examined the relationship between six broad personality traits(i.e., HEXACO; Honesty-humility, Emotionality, eXtraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Openness to experience), safety job performance, and traffic accidents of Korean occupational bus drivers. Based on the job performance model, we included safety participation as well as safety compliance as safety job performance. Analyses on the data from a total of 492 bus drivers showed that all HEXACO personality traits except Honesty-humility, were valid predictors for both safety compliance and safety participation. Honesty-humility was only related to safety compliance. Among the six personality traits, high conscientiousness and low emotionality were best predictors of safety job performance. As for traffic accidents, conscientiousness was a sole significant predictor. Furthermore, the mediation analysis showed that the effect of conscientiousness on traffic accidents was completely explained by safety compliance and safety participation. The implications of the current findings for practice and future research as well as the limitations of the current study were discussed.