• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident likelihood

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A Case Study on Aircraft Accidents Due to Air Traffic Controller's Human Error - Applying TEM (Threat & Error Management) Analysis - (항공교통관제사의 휴먼에러에 기인한 국내외 항공기 사고 사례연구 - TEM(Threat & Error Management) 분석법을 적용하여 -)

  • Kim, Jung-Bin;Park, Sung-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.124-133
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    • 2021
  • The airline industry has been growing steadily since 2016 with more than 100 million air passengers, renewing the largest number of air passengers every year. Increasing air demand leads to an increase in air traffic in limited airspace, increasing the likelihood of accidents between aircraft. Due to the massive human and material damage caused by a single mistake, aviation safety is being heavily focused around the world to efficiently use limited airspace. Studies related to various human factors are underway as most of the aviation accidents are found to be caused by human factors, but research on human factors by controllers is insufficient while they are active in terms of control and operation. Given that 82% of air accidents caused by controllers are caused by human error, the importance of management of human error and changes in perception are urgently needed. This study aims to understand the seriousness of the controller's human error by analyzing the accident cases caused by the controller's human error using TEM to identify threats and errors and derive common human factors.

석유화학 공장에서의 가상 사고 시나리오 생성 모델

  • Kang, Mi-Jin;Lee, Young-Soon;Moon, Il;Yoon, Dong-Hyun;Lee, Young-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
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    • 2000.06a
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    • pp.196-196
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents an approach for modeling of the generation of a set of credible accident scenarios for a petrochemical plant, which will be used to perform quantitative hazard assessments such as the consequence assessment, FTA or ETA. This approach is carried out in ways of identifying, classifying a set of major components and elements for scenarios generation by analysis of the informations on various actual accidents, and thus setting priorities of both factors of likelihood and consequence on each component or element identified.

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Modeling Traffic Accident Occurrence Involving Child Pedestrians at School Zone (공간적 특성을 고려한 어린이 교통사고 모형 개발)

  • BEAK, Tea Hun;Son, Seulki;PARK, Byung Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.489-498
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to develop road traffic accident model involving child pedestrian especially at school zones and its surrounding area. The analysis is based upon traffic accident data collected near sixty elementary schools in City of Cheongju during 2012 and 2014. This study results in two statistical models ; one is to predict the number of road traffic accidents involving children, and the other is to predict EPDO(Equivalent Prperty Damage Only). These models are represented as Poisson models. which are statistically significant with the likelihood ratios of 0.533 and 0.273. The common explanatory variables of these models are the ratio of road section with more than 4 lanes, the number of entrance and exit, the number of signalized crosswalk in school zone, the number of school zone signage including road surface marking, and the number of speed limit signs. The specific variables are the length of road stretch in school zone, the number of reflector mirrors, and the number of signalized crosswalk outside school zone. It is concluded that these types of road safety facilities can reduce the number of traffic accidents involving children at school zones and its surrounding area.

Characteristics and Severity of Side Right-Angle Collisions at Signalized Intersections (신호교차로의 측면직각 층돌사고 특성과 심각도)

  • Park, Jeong-Soon;Park, Gil-Soo;Kim, Tae-Young;Park, Byung-Ho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.199-211
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    • 2008
  • This study deals with the side right-angle collisions of 4-legged signalized intersections in Cheongju. The goals are to analyze the characteristics of accidents and to find out the accident factors that affect severity using ordered probit model. In pursuing the above, the study uses the data of 580 side right-angle collisions occurred at the 181 intersections(2004-2005). The analyses show that more accidents were occurred in the nighttime and in going straight. The main cause was analyzed to be the red-light violation. Also, the main results of modeling are the following, First, the likelihood ratio index is 0.094 and t-ratio values that explain goodness of fit are significant. Second, minor road traffic volumes, minor road lanes, major road left-turn lanes, major road left-turn signal, major road yellow signal time, cross angle, major and minor road speed limits are significant factors affecting crash severities at signalized intersections.

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A Study on A Dynamic Reliability Analysis Model (동적신뢰도 평가모델의 연구)

  • 제무성
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2000.04a
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    • pp.239-246
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    • 2000
  • This paper presents a new dynamic approach for assessing feasibility associated with the implementation of accident management strategies by the operators. This approach includes the combined use of both the concept of reliability physics and a dynamic event tree generation scheme. The reliability physics is based on the concept of a comparison between two competing variables, i.e., the requirement and the achievement parameter, while the dynamic event tree generation scheme on the continuous generation of the possible event sequences at every branch point up to the desired solution. This approach is applied to a cavity flooding strategy in a reference plant, which is to supply water into the reactor cavity using emergency fire systems in the station blackout sequence. The MAAP code and Latin Hypercube sampling technique are used to determine the uncertainty of the requirement parameter. It has been demonstrated that this combined methodology may contribute to assessing the success likelihood of the operator actions required during accidents and therefore to developing the accident management procedures.

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Cyber Terror Threat Elimination Method Study for Safe Smart World (안전한 스마트월드를 위한 사이버 테러위협 제거 방안 연구)

  • Han, Choong-Hee;Han, ChangHee
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2021
  • Recently, large-scale research and efforts aimed at the smart world such as smart city, smart home, smart transportation, and smart care are continuing. As these smart worlds become more common, the expansion of connectivity with the Internet and the threat of cyber terrorism will be inevitable. Increasing the threat of cyber terrorism is increasing the likelihood of a massive disaster and safety accident. Therefore, in this paper, we examine smart worlds that are expanded in various forms and derive the security threat factors that smart worlds have. In addition, it is proposed to block the threat of terrorism from abroad if access from abroad is not required when constructing a smart world. Through this, we intend to present a method to eliminate cyber terror threats for the establishment and operation of a safe smart world.

A Study on the Improvement of the Blind Zones in View of Safety Laws and Regulations for the New Multi­purpose Business (신종 다중이용업소의 안전기준 사각지대 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jongkeun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.89-95
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    • 2019
  • Currently, the legal framework for installation of safety facilities has not been implemented for new multi-purpose business excluding 23 multi-purpose business types, and therefore, there is a high likelihood of large number of casualties in case of fire accident. At present, the new multi-purpose business can start its operation only with administrative actions of the licensing agencies and registration to the tax agency, and it is difficult that the fire department, which is a competent safety management department, makes intervention them in the same way as before. In addition, as the licensing agency has no authority to restrict the business due to insufficient implementation of safety facilities, a lot of civil complaints occur, which causes difficulties in changing concerned laws and regulations rapidly. In this study, it is considered to analyze the legal system, status of safety management of multi-purpose business, type of new multi-use facility and characteristics of fire risk. Based on such analysis results, this study will suggest the improvement plan to solve the blind zones in the safety management, which enables the multi-purpose business to be operated within the legal framework.

An attitude survey on the safety of the household utilities with the urban gas (설문에 의한 도시가스 사용가구의 안전의식도 조사)

  • Ko Jae-Sun;Kim Hyo;Lee SuKyoung
    • 한국가스학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.37-43
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    • 2005
  • The questionnaires about the safety of the urban gas have been carried out for the end users. about 8 of 10 persons said that the urban gas Is safe to use, whereas $35\%$ of them said there exists a hazard of an accident in thier residences. There cannot be found the clear evidences that the understandings on the safety of the urban gas have no relations to their ages, sex, and monthly incomes, while the safety is less confidential to the highly educated, the accident-experienced, or the mans who are poor at the safety inspections. Most of the questioned man know the inspection knacks for the gas utilities, but only $60\%$ of them carry out it. They said that they do not feel the necessity of the inspection because they are inspected routinely by the suppliers or the inspection companies. This says that the end user does not concern the safety inspections, and in order to improve the dependency of the user for the self-inspections, the inspection staff should educate the user for the necessity and the knack of inspections to encourage the self-inspection of the gas utilities.

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Analysis of driver behavior related to frontal vehicle collision direction (정면충돌의 충돌방향과 관련된 운전자의 행동분석)

  • Lee, Myung-Lyeol;Kim, Ho-Jung;Lee, Kang-Hyun;Kim, Sang-Chul;Lee, Hyo-Ju;Choi, Hyo-Jueng
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.530-537
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    • 2016
  • This study investigates frontal crashes, analyzes the driver's action related to the change of the collision direction and determines the severity of (bodily injury). This study was conducted from August, 2013, to January, 2014, and the data for the car damage and human body damage were collected by emergency medical teams. In terms of data collection, we collected the accident vehicle, crash direction, body damage, etc., based on the Korea In-depth Accident Study (KIDAS) and Injury Severity Score (ISS). We used Minitab 17 and SPSS 22.0 to do the frequency analysis and ANOVA. In the analysis results, the prevalence of frontal collisions was 55.8% and mostly occurred in the 12 o'clock direction. In the analysis of the frontal crash direction according to age, the average ages for the 11, 12 and 1 o'clock directions were $46.46{\pm}13.47$, $44.43{\pm}13.40$ and $52.46{\pm}12.04$, respectively, so the older age drivers had a high probability of the accident occurring in the 1 o'clock direction. In the analysis of men's frontal collision direction according to age, the average ages in the 11, 12 and 1 o'clock directions were $47.10{\pm}13.88$, $45.24{\pm}13.78$ and $55.73{\pm}13.38$, respectively, so older aged men had a high probability of having collisions in the 1 o'clock direction. However, the statistical analysis of the frontal crash direction according to age in women didn't show any meaningful trend. When comparing the ISS according to age of the men and women in the collision direction, the men were less likely to have a 12 o'clock collision when $ISS{\geq}9$ and more likely to have a 1 o'clock collision when ISS<9. As a result, frontal crashes are more likely to occur in the 12 o'clock direction and the ISS decreases because the likelihood of frontal crashes in the 1 o'clock direction increases with increasing age. Therefore, when men recognize that they are heading for a 12 o'clock direction collision, they try to steer to the left to reduce the body damage.

An Analysis on Vehicle Accident Factors of Intersections using Random Effects Tobit Regression Model (Random Effects Tobit 회귀모형을 이용한 교차로 교통사고 요인 분석)

  • Lee, Sang Hyuk;Lee, Jung-Beom
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.26-37
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    • 2017
  • The study is to develop safety performance functions(SPFs) for urban intersections using random effects Tobit regression model and to analyze correlations between crashes and factors. Also fixed effects Tobit regression model was estimated to compare and analyze model validation with random effects model. As a result, AADT, speed limits, number of lanes, land usage, exclusive right turn lanes and front traffic signal were found to be significant. For comparing statistical significance between random and fixed effects model, random effects Tobit regression model of total crash rate could be better statistical significance with $R^2_p$ : 0.418, log-likelihood at convergence: -3210.103, ${\rho}^2$: 0.056, MAD: 19.533, MAPE: 75.725, RMSE: 26.886 comparing with $R^2_p$ : 0.298, log-likelihood at convergence: -3276.138, ${\rho}^2$: 0.037, MAD: 20.725, MAPE: 82.473, RMSE: 27.267 for the fixed model. Also random effects Tobit regression model of injury crash rate has similar results of model statistical significant with random effects Tobit regression model.