• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident analysis model

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Development of FEMAXI-ATF for analyzing PCMI behavior of SiC cladded fuel under power ramp conditions

  • Yoshihiro Kubo;Akifumi Yamaji
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.56 no.3
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    • pp.846-854
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    • 2024
  • FEMAXI-ATF is being developed for fuel performance modeling of SiC cladded UO2 fuel with focuses on modeling pellet-cladding mechanical interactions (PCMI). The code considers probability distributions of mechanical strengths of monolithic SiC (mSiC) and SiC fiber reinforced SiC matrix composite (SiC/SiC), while it models pseudo-ductility of SiC/SiC and propagation of cladding failures across the wall thickness direction in deterministic manner without explicitly modeling cracks based on finite element method in one-dimensional geometry. Some hypothetical BWR power ramp conditions were used to test sensitivities of different model parameters on the analyzed PCMI behavior. The results showed that propagation of the cladding failure could be modeled by appropriately reducing modulus of elasticities of the failed wall element, so that the mechanical load of the failed element could be re-distributed to other intact elements. The probability threshold for determination of the wall element failure did not have large influence on the predicted power at failure when the threshold was varied between 25 % and 75 %. The current study is still limited with respect to mechanistic modeling of SiC failure as it only models the propagation of the cladding wall element failure across the homogeneous continuum wall without considering generations and propagations of cracks.

The Comparison Study on Observational Before-After Studies: Case Study on Safety Evaluation on Highways (관찰적 사전·사후 평가연구 방법의 비교 연구: 공용중인 고속도로 안전진단사업 효과평가를 사례로)

  • Mun, Sung Ra;Lee, Young-Ihn
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.67-89
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    • 2013
  • This study is to perform empirical analysis on observational before-after studies in Naive Method, Comparison Group(CG) Method and Empirical Bayes(EB) Method, and to compare with their results and to propose ways to apply to evaluation researches. For this purpose, the evaluation of road safety audit executed on Y$\breve{o}$ng-dong freeway in 2005 and 2006 was performed. As a result, all three methods have showed improved effects due to safety treatments. The safety effectiveness of Naive method is the largest, CG Method is the second and EB method is the last. The results of Naive method are overestimated due to the trend of reducing traffic accidents and those of CG method are affected by the external casual effects of comparison group. In the EB method, as "regression to the mean" phenomenon are controlled by reference group's accident model, it's result is relatively more accurate than that of other methods. In the conduct of evaluation studies, the analysts have to understand the pros and cons of each evaluation method. And after leading the survey on accident trends of related all sites, evaluation analysis is performed to be able to minimize bias.

Analysis of Contributory Factors in Causing Crashes at Rural Unsignalized intersections Based on Statistical Modeling (지방부 무신호교차로 교통사고의 영향요인 분석 및 통계적 모형 개발)

  • PARK, Jeong Soon;OH, Ju Taek;OH, Sang Jin;KIM, Young Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.123-134
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    • 2016
  • Traffic accident at intersections takes 44.3% of total number of accidents on entire road network of Korea in 2014. Although several studies addressed contributory factors of accidents at signalized intersection, very few is known about the factors at rural unsignalized intersections. The objective of this study is therefore to investigate specific characteristics of crashes at rural unsignalized intersection and to identify contributory factors in causing crashes by statistical approach using the Ordered Logistic Regression Model. The results show that main type of car crashes at unsignalized intersection during the daytime is T-bone crashes and the number of crashes at 4-legged intersections are 1.53 times more than that at 3-legged intersections. Most collisions are caused by negligence of drivers and violation of Right of Way. Based upon the analysis, accident severity is modeled as classified by two types such as 3-legged intersection and 4-legged intersection. It shows that contributory factors in causing crashes at rural unsignalized intersections are poor sight distance problem, average daily traffic, time of day(night, or day), angle of intersection, ratio of heavy vehicles, number of traffic violations at intersection, and number of lanes on minor street.

Evaluation of Operation Efficiency in the Korean SRRs using Ranking of DMUs with Fuzzy Data (순위결정 퍼지DEA법을 이용한 수색구조구역의 운영효율성 평가)

  • Jang, Woon-Jae;Keum, Jong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.207-212
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    • 2007
  • This paper aims to measure and evaluate the technical efficiency with two inputs and four outputs with the use of fuzzy DEA in Korean RCC/RSC. Especially, this paper included not only the marine accident data which occurred for the analysis in particular but also the possibility data of a potential marine accident by an Environmental Stress value and analyzed the technical efficiency. And in this paper, asymmetrical triangular fuzzy number is presented about inputs/ outputs data and a procedure is suggested for it's solution. The basic idea is to transform the fuzzy CCR model into a crisp linear programming problem by applying an alternative ${\alpha}$-cut approach. Also this paper propose a ranking method for fuzzy RCC/RSC using presented fuzzy DEA approach. The result, when ${\alpha}$-cut is 0.5, efficiency priority is found in the order of YS, BS, MP, TY, JJ, PH, US, IC, SC, DH, GS, TA, WD RCC/RSC. Finally, Inefficiency TA, WD RCC/RSC have to benchmarking with reference sets.

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Enhancement of Transportation Safety Service for Foreigner Residing in Ansan Through Analysis of Travel Behavior and Traffic Accident (안산거주 외국인 통행실태 및 교통사고 분석을 이용한 교통안전서비스 증진방안 연구)

  • Jung, Yong Ki;Chang, Myungsoon;Kim, Jin Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2013
  • There is a need to provide appropriate transportation safety services to foreigners residing in Korea. The main purpose of this study is to enhance transportation safety services for foreigners. In order to identify the risk of traffic accidents, analysis of traffic accidents was conducted using a survey of foreigner travel behavior. According to the results of this model, the study suggests directions to achieve improvement of traffic safety services for foreigners who are unfamiliar with the transportation systems. The study results show that the risk of traffic accidents is influenced by two factors: comprehension of transport geography and of traffic laws. Necessity of policy is influenced by two factors: comprehension of transportation system and the risk of traffic accidents. Intention of using policy is influenced by two factors: the risk of traffic accidents and necessity of policy. Effect of policy is affected by the intention of using policy. The results also demonstrate that the traffic safety services for foreigner can be described as endogenous variables which are approximately 88% of the traffic safety education, 85% of the demanded multicultural district, and 75% of the portal traffic information. Compared with existing research, this study provides a systematic methodology to evaluate effects and the order of priority in establishing traffic safety policies for foreigners.

The Analysis of Bus Traffic Accident to Support Safe Driving for Bus Drivers (버스운전자 안전운행지원을 위한 교통사고 분석 연구)

  • BHIN, Miyoung;SON, Seulki
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.14-26
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    • 2019
  • For bus drivers' safe driving, a policy that analyzes the causes of the drivers' traffic accidents and then assists their safe driving is required. Therefore, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport set up its plan to gradually expand the equipping of commercial vehicles with FCWS (Forward Collision Warning System) and LDWS(Lane Departure Warning System), from the driver-supporting ADAS(Advanced Driver Assistance Systems). However, there is not much basic research on the analysis of bus drivers' traffic accidents in Korea. As such, the time is appropriate to research what is the most necessary ADAS for bus drivers going forward to prevent bus accidents. The purpose of this research is to analyze how serious the accidents were in the different bus routes and whether the accidents were repetitive, and to give recommendations on how to support ADAS for buses, as an improvement. A model of ordered logit was used to analyze how serious the accidents were and as a result, vehicle to pedestrian accidents which directly affected individuals were statistically significant in all of the models, and violations of regulations, such as speeding, traffic signal violation and violation of safeguards for passengers, were indicated in common in several models. Therefore, the pedestrian-sensor system and automatic emergency control device for pedestrian should be installed to reduce bus accidents directly affecting persons in the future, and education for drivers and ADAS are to be offered to reduce the violations of regulations.

A Study on the Estimation of Optimal Probability Distribution Function for Seafarers' Behavior Error (선원 행동오류에 대한 최적 확률분포함수 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Deuk-Jin;Yang, Hyeong-Seon;Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2019
  • Identifying behavioral errors of seafarers that have led to marine accidents is a basis for research into prevention or mitigation of marine accidents. The purpose of this study is to estimate the optimal probability distribution function needed to model behavioral errors of crew members into three behaviors (i.e., Skill-, Rule-, Knowledge-based). Through use of behavioral data obtained from previous accidents, we estimated the optimal probability distribution function for the three behavioral errors and verified the significance between the probability values derived from the probability distribution function. Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to the probability distribution function estimation and variance analysis (ANOVA) used for the significance test. The obtained experimental results show that the probability distribution function with the smallest error can be estimated for each of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents. The statistical significance of the three behavioral errors for eight types of marine accidents calculated using the probability distribution function was observed. In addition, behavioral errors were also found to significantly affect marine accidents. The results of this study can be applied to predicting marine accidents caused by behavioral errors.

Research on Advanced Measures for Emergency Response to Water Accidents based on Big-Data (빅데이터 기반 수도사고 위기대응 고도화 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ho-sung;Kim, Jong-rip;Kim, Jae-jong;Yoon, Young-min;Kim, Dae-kyung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.317-321
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    • 2022
  • In response to Incheon tap water accident in 2019, the Ministry of Environment has created the "Comprehensive Measures for Water Safety Management" to improve water operation management, provide systematic technical support, and respond to accidents. Accordingly, K-water is making a smart water supply management system for the entire process of tap water. In order to advance the response to water accidents, it is essential to secure the reliability of real-time water operation data such as flow rate, pressure, and water level, and to develop and apply a warning algorithm in advance using big data analysis techniques. In this paper, various statistical techniques are applied using water supply operation data (flow, pressure, water level, etc) to prepare the foundation for the selection of the optimal operating range and advancement of the monitoring and alarm system. In addition, the arrival time is analyzed through cross-correlation analysis of changes in raw water turbidity between the water intake and water treatment plants. The purpose of this paper is to study the model that predicts the raw water turbidity of a water treatment plant by applying raw water turbidity data considering the time delay according to the flow rate change.

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Behavior of Tension Clamp in Rail Fastening System (레일 체결장치 텐션클램프의 거동)

  • Choi, Shin-Hyung;Park, Beom-Ho;Yun, Kyung-Min;Bae, Hyun-Ung;Lim, Nam-Hyoung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.8812-8819
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    • 2015
  • In a situation in which importance of rail fastening system is growing with increasing the construction of concrete track, an accident of tension clamp(the component of rail fastening system) breaking has been recently occurred. This results from various factors such as field condition, operating agency, running condition, traffic frequency and so on. Thus, the study for the behavior of tension clamp is required. In this paper, an experiment and finite element analysis(FEA) have been performed to analyse the mechanical behavior of tension clamp. The stress and displacement of tension clamp have been analyzed as the clamping force through a laboratory test, and they were compared with FEA results. Furthermore, the stress and displacement of the tension clamp are derived from train load condition applying the verified model, and the fatigue vulnerability of the tension clamp is identified through stress analysis.

Analysis of the Effect of Traffic Safety Investment on Traffic Accident Reduction Using Panel Data (패널자료를 이용한 교통안전투자 종류별 사고감소 효과)

  • Gang, Su-Cheol;Bae, Hyeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2011
  • There are many investment budget drafts in the filed of a road traffic safety. The traffic safety budget is spitted into following three major areas: 1) traffic safety facility (Engineering), 2) traffic enforcement (Enforcement), and 3) traffic safety education & public relation (Education). The three area are known as so-called 3E policy. This study investigates the effect of the investment in the 3E policy on the reduction of traffic accidents analyzing the data annually collected from the 15 local governments during 1992 to 2007. The analysis employing the traffic accidents as the dependent variable reveals that the effect of the investment is higher if same amount of investment is made on areas of the traffic safety education and public relation than the area of facility improvement. The similar conclusions are resulted from the separate investigation of traffic accidents data by 6 different types. All the results consistently indicate that the current traffic safety investment being primarily made on traffic safety facility needs to shift to the areas of traffic safety education and public relation budget.