• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident analysis model

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Developing the Traffic Accident Prediction Model using Classification And Regression Tree Analysis (CART분석을 이용한 교통사고예측모형의 개발)

  • Lee, Jae-Myung;Kim, Tae-Ho;Lee, Yong-Taeck;Won, Jai-Mu
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.31-39
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    • 2008
  • Preventing the traffic accident by accurately predicting it in advance can greatly improve road traffic safety. The accurate traffic accident prediction model requires not only understanding of the factors that cause the accident but also having the transferability of the model. So, this paper suggest the traffic accident diagram using CART(Classification And Regression Tree) analysis, developed Model is compared with the existing accident prediction models in order to test the goodness of fit. The results of this study are summarized below. First, traffic accident prediction model using CART analysis is developed. Second, distance(D), pedestrian shoulder(m) and traffic volume among the geometrical factors are the most influential to the traffic accident. Third. CART analysis model show high predictability in comparative analysis between models. This study suggest the basic ideas to evaluate the investment priority for the road design and improvement projects of the traffic accident blackspots.

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Application Review of a Systemic Accident Analysis Method in the Field of Occupational Health - Focused on the Analysis of Methanol Poisoning Accidents Using STAMP - (산업보건 분야에서 시스템적 사고 분석 방법의 활용성 검토 - STAMP를 이용한 메탄올 중독사고 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Dong-Hyun Seo;Jang-Hyun Park;Jong-Soo Hyun;Jin-Hyun Kim
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.188-205
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    • 2023
  • Objectives: Methanol poisoning accidents in smartphone parts manufacturing facilities were analyzed using a systemic accident analysis method, and the necessity and possibility of the application of this systemic method in the field of occupational health were reviewed. Methods: A STAMP model for accident analysis was created based on the previously published literature. CAST analysis was performed to find the causal factors of the components and between the components. Results: The STAMP model visually showed the abstract and complex system control structure. The CAST analysis results could include all the causal factors from the previously published literature, and presented them holistically. Additional causal factors that were not presented in the literature were found. Conclusions: The holistic accident analysis results in this study will be helpful to establish comprehensive measures to prevent methanol or other chemical poisoning accidents. Therefore, it will be necessary to use systemic accident analysis methods in the field of occupational health.

Development of Car Accidents Person Fatality Model using Data Mining (데이터 마이닝을 이용한 차량 사고자 사망확률 모형)

  • Kim Cheon-Shik;Hong You-Shik;Jung Myung-Hee
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.43 no.9 s.351
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    • pp.25-31
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, a fatality model of car accident using data mining is proposed with the goal of reducing fatality of traffic accident. The analysis results with a proposed fatality model are utilized to improve a technology and environment for driving. For this, traffic accident data are collected, a data mining algorithm is applied to this data, and then, a fatality model of car accident is developed based on the analysis. The training data as well as test data are utilized to develop the fatality model. The important factors to cause fatality in traffic accidents can be investigated using the model. If these factors are taken into account in traffic policies and driving environment, it is expected that the fatality rate of traffic accident can be reduced hereafter.

Analysis of Relative Risk by Accident Types at Intersections, Crosswalk and Tunnel Sections (교차로, 횡단보도, 터널 구간에서 사고유형에 따른 상대적 위험도 분석)

  • Lee, Hyunmi;Jeon, Gyoseok;Kim, Hyung Jun;Jang, Jeong Ah
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.39 no.6
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    • pp.841-851
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    • 2019
  • This study presents risk ranking by accident types at intersections, crosswalk and tunnel sections. An ordered logit model was used to estimate the accident severity of traffic accidents based on 58,868 accident records that have occurred on the Seoul and Gyeonggi-do over the period 2014-2017. The factors affecting the injury severity were identified by the estimated model first, and risk ranking was proposed according to conditions of accident occurrence using relative ratio analysis later. The analysis results showed that the injury severity dramatically depends on the location and time of the accident. The analysis results showed that the injury severity dramatically depends on the location and time of the accident. Furthermore, there are severe injury cases in terms of the injury severity despite the small number of occurrence of traffic accident, or there are severe injury cases in terms of the injury severity despite the high frequency of occurrence of traffic accident.

Pattern Analysis of Traffic Accident data and Prediction of Victim Injury Severity Using Hybrid Model (교통사고 데이터의 패턴 분석과 Hybrid Model을 이용한 피해자 상해 심각도 예측)

  • Ju, Yeong Ji;Hong, Taek Eun;Shin, Ju Hyun
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.75-82
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    • 2016
  • Although Korea's economic and domestic automobile market through the change of road environment are growth, the traffic accident rate has also increased, and the casualties is at a serious level. For this reason, the government is establishing and promoting policies to open traffic accident data and solve problems. In this paper, describe the method of predicting traffic accidents by eliminating the class imbalance using the traffic accident data and constructing the Hybrid Model. Using the original traffic accident data and the sampled data as learning data which use FP-Growth algorithm it learn patterns associated with traffic accident injury severity. Accordingly, In this paper purpose a method for predicting the severity of a victim of a traffic accident by analyzing the association patterns of two learning data, we can extract the same related patterns, when a decision tree and multinomial logistic regression analysis are performed, a hybrid model is constructed by assigning weights to related attributes.

A Analysis of a Pointed-end Equipment Arm Safety-Accident for Fault Tree Analysis (Fault Tree Analysis에 의한 첨단설비 Arm 안전사고의 분석)

  • Yun Yong-Gu;Park Beom
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2005.05a
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    • pp.279-290
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study is to attempt a Analysis of a pointed-end Equipment Arm Safety-Accident for Fault Tree Analysis. Three major techniques were used first problem is Z-Model by which accident Analysis & prevention of a pointed-end Industry can be made, Fault Tree Analysis(FTA) bywhich quantification of a pointed-end Equipment accident Analysis can be made it 5 years in past and the third, manual-written by which minimal cut set to accident can be Identified. A example has been made of issue point a pointed-end Equipment that the Arm in loader happen to Injuries. According to the Analysis lack of safety knowledge, unsafety-behavior seem to be the primal cause of accident. Comparision of the accident cause to actual report demonstratesthat the FTA a efficient tool for Industrial Accident prevention.

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Development of Accident Analysis Model in Car to Pedestrian Accident (차 대 보행자 충돌 시 사고해석 모델 개발)

  • Kang, D.M.;Ahn, S.M.
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.76-81
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    • 2009
  • The fatalities of pedestrian account for about 21.2% of all fatalities at 2007 year in Korea. To reconstruct exactly the accident, it is important to calculate the throw distance of pedestrian in car to pedestrian accident. The frontal shape of SUV vehicle is dissimilar to passenger car and bus, so the trajectory and throw distance of pedestrian by SUV vehicle is not the same of passenger car and bus. The influencing on it can be classified into the factors of vehicle and pedestrian, and road factor. It was analyzed by PC-CRASH for simulation, and SPSS s/w was used for regression analysis. From the simulation results, the maximum impact energy of multi-body of pedestrian was occurred to that of torso body at the same time. And the throw distance increased with the increasing of impact velocity, and decreased with the increasing of impact offset. Also it decreased with the increasing of velocity of pedestrian at accident, and the throw distance of wet road was longer than that of dry road. Finally, the regression analysis model of SUV(Nissan Pathfinder type)vehicle in car to pedestrian accident was as follows; $$disti_i=-0.87-0.11offseti_i+0.69speed_i-4.27height_i+0.004walk_i+0.63wet_i+{\epsilon}_i$$.

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Development of Accident Cause Analysis Model for Construction Site (건설업 사고 발생원인 파악을 위한 사고 분석 모델 개발)

  • Lim, Won Jun;Kee, Jung Hun;Seong, Joo Hyun;Park, Jong Yil
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2019
  • Accident analysis models were developed to improve the construction site safety and case studies was conducted. In 2016, 86% of fatality accidents occurred due to simple unsafe acts. Structure related accidents are less frequent than the non structure related causes, but the number of casualties per accident is two times higher than non structure one. In the view of risk perception, efforts should be given to reduce accidents caused by low frequency - high consequence structure related causes. In case of structure related accident, structural safety inspection and management (including quality), ground condition management / inspection technology, and provision of risk information delivery system in case of non structure related accident were proposed as a solution. In analysis of relationship between safety related stakeholder, the main problem were the lack of knowledge of controller and player, loss of control due to duplicated controls, lack of communication system of risk information, and relative position error of controller and player.

Development of mechanistic cladding rupture model for severe accident analysis and application in PHEBUS FPT3 experiment

  • Gao, Pengcheng;Zhang, Bin;Li, Jishen;Shan, Jianqiang
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.138-151
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    • 2022
  • Cladding ballooning and rupture are the important phenomena at the early stage of a severe accident. Most severe accident analysis codes determine the cladding rupture based on simple parameter models. In this paper, a FRTMB module was developed using the thermal-mechanical model to analyze the fuel mechanical behavior. The purpose is to judge the cladding rupture with the severe accident analysis code. The FRTMB module was integrated into the self-developed severe accident analysis code ISAA to simulate the PHEBUS FPT3 experiment. The predicted rupture time and temperature of the cladding were basically consistent with the measured values, which verified the correctness and effectiveness of the FRTMB module. The results showed that the rising of gas pressure in the fuel rod and high temperature led to cladding ballooning. Consequently, the cladding hoop strain exceeded the strain limit, and the cladding burst. The developed FRTMB module can be applied not only to rod-type fuel, but also to plate-type fuel and other types of reactor fuel rods. Moreover, the FRTMB module can improve the channel blockage model of ISAA code and make contributions to analyzing the effect of clad ballooning on transient and subsequent parts of core degradation.

Impact Analysis for Vehicle Accident Reconstruction (자동차 사고 재고성을 위한 충돌 해석)

  • 한인환
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.178-190
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    • 1998
  • We have developed a planar impact model with a capability of reverse calculation to reconstruct various types of automobile collisions. This topic is the main part of what is referred to as accident reconstruction. The model uses the principle of impulse and momentum, and introduces a restitution coefficient and an impulse ratio at the impact center. Based on the car-to-car collision test results, we present how to estimate the restitution coefficient and the impulse ratio from some impact conditions. To validate the model and improve its reliability in accident analysis, the collision analysis has been performer with the estimated parameters. The analysis and experimental results agree well in the kinetic energy loss and the post-impact velocity.

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