KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research (대한토목학회논문집)

Korean Society of Civil Engeneers (대한토목학회)
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Analysis of Relative Risk by Accident Types at Intersections, Crosswalk and Tunnel Sections

교차로, 횡단보도, 터널 구간에서 사고유형에 따른 상대적 위험도 분석

  • 이현미 (아주대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 전교석 (아주대학교 TOD기반 지속가능 도시교통연구센터) ;
  • 김형준 (아주대학교 교통공학과) ;
  • 장정아 (아주대학교 TOD기반 지속가능 도시교통연구센터)
  • Received : 2019.10.02
  • Accepted : 2019.10.22
  • Published : 2019.12.01
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Abstract

This study presents risk ranking by accident types at intersections, crosswalk and tunnel sections. An ordered logit model was used to estimate the accident severity of traffic accidents based on 58,868 accident records that have occurred on the Seoul and Gyeonggi-do over the period 2014-2017. The factors affecting the injury severity were identified by the estimated model first, and risk ranking was proposed according to conditions of accident occurrence using relative ratio analysis later. The analysis results showed that the injury severity dramatically depends on the location and time of the accident. The analysis results showed that the injury severity dramatically depends on the location and time of the accident. Furthermore, there are severe injury cases in terms of the injury severity despite the small number of occurrence of traffic accident, or there are severe injury cases in terms of the injury severity despite the high frequency of occurrence of traffic accident.

본 연구는 교차로, 횡단보도, 터널 구간에서 교통사고 유형에 따른 위험 순위를 비교 분석한 것이다. 서울, 경기도에서 발생한 2014년부터 2017년까지의 교통사고자료 중 교통량 및 속도 자료와 결합 가능한 58,868건의 자료를 구축하고, 순서형 로짓모형을 활용하여 사고심각도 추정모형을 구축하였다. 추정된 모형을 기반으로 사고심각도에 영향을 미치는 요인을 규명하고, 영향을 미치는 정도를 살펴보았다. 또한 사고발생위치(교차로, 횡단보도, 터널)별, 사고유형별, 사고발생 시간이나 상황별로 상대적 위험도 분석을 통해 위험순위를 제시하였다. 분석 결과 사고발생 위치와 시간에 따라 사고심각도에 현격한 차이를 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 분석 자료로부터 산출된 사고 발생 빈도와 사고심각도와 비교해봤을 때, 발생 빈도가 적더라도 사고심각도 측면에서는 위중하거나, 발생 빈도가 높고, 사고심각도 또한 위중한 경우가 존재하는 것으로 분석되었다. 이러한 교통사고유형의 위험 평가를 통해 도로별로 상대적으로 위험한 사고유형에 대한 이해가 가능하고 도로별, 사고유형의 교통사고 위험도 지수 개발에 기초자료 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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