• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident analysis model

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식품안전사고가 계란 소비에 미치는 영향: 계란의 살충제검출사고를 중심으로 (The Effects of Food Safety Accident on the Consumption of Eggs : Focusing on the Pesticide-related Accident)

  • 한별;양성범
    • 한국유기농업학회지
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.17-32
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of pesticide-related accident on prices and sales of eggs and the perception of food safety accidents among consumers. For this, we analyzed the impact of the pesticide incident on consumers' purchases by separating large discount stores and eco-friendly specialty stores with econometrics methods. In addition, the value changes for each egg certification were analyzed after the accident. Perception of food safety accidents was conducted through a survey to investigate the awareness of the pesticide-related accidents, changes in purchases, and the causes of the pesticide accidents. Furthermore, the risk analysis was conducted. This results show the importance of trust and communication in food safety accidents between distributors, consumers and concerned authorities. Also, after the accident, consumers' interest and premium exist in the breeding process such as animal welfare, not only in the final product. Therefore in order to actively respond to food safety accidents such as pesticides-related accident, response and improvement are necessary considering various aspects such as risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication.

회전교차로에서의 화물차 사고모형 (Traffic Accident Models for Trucks at Roundabouts)

  • 손슬기;김태양;박병호
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSES : This study deals with traffic accidents involving trucks. The objective of this study is to develop a traffic accident model for trucks at roundabouts. METHODS : To achieve its objective, this study gives particular attention to develop appropriate models using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Traffic accident data from 2007 to 2014 were collected from TAAS data set of road traffic authority. Thirteen explanatory variables such as geometry and traffic volume were used. RESULTS : The main results can be summarized as follows: (1) two statistically significant Poisson models (${\rho}^2=0.398$ and 0.435) were developed, and (2) the analysis revealed the common variables to be traffic volume, number of exit lanes, speed breakers, and truck apron width. CONCLUSIONS : Our modeling reveals that increasing the number of speed breakers and speed limit signs, and widening the truck apron width are important for reducing the number of truck accidents at roundabouts.

스마트도로 안전성 향상 효과의 정량화 연구 (Quantitative Analysis of Safety Improvement on Smart Roads)

  • 장현호;백승걸;오성호;김호정
    • 한국ITS학회 논문지
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    • 제10권4호
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    • pp.44-54
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    • 2011
  • 첨단도로 안전시설물, 첨단교통관리기법 등을 기반으로 하는 다양한 첨단 교통서비스는 교통사고 등의 돌발상황을 감소시킬 것으로 예상되며, 이에 따라 도로의 지 정체 역시 감소될 것이다. 따라서 안전성 향상에 따른 지 정체 감소효과를 편익항목에 포함시킬 수 있다. 그러나 현재 우리나라의 투자평가지침에서는 이를 편익으로 계상하지 않고 있다. 스마트도로에서 제공하는 첨단 교통서비스는 인프라의 초기 투자비용을 상승시키지만 새로운 서비스로 인한 편익이 계상되지 않아 비용/편익 분석 시에 경제성을 확보하지 못하는 문제점을 가지게 된다. 따라서 본 연구는 과거 3년간의 고속도로 사고 자료를 이용하여 평균 차로차단시간을 추정하고, 미시적 시뮬레이션을 이용하여 구축된 자료와 회귀분석기법을 통해 지체시간 추정모형을 개발하였다. 또한 개발된 모형이 투자평가기법에 적용될 수 있도록 계량화에 필요한 원단위(평균용량감소비율 등)를 제시하였다. 개발된 방법론을 스마트하이웨이사업 사례에 적용 결과, 스마트 안전시설로 인한 사고감소율을 10%로 가정하였을 경우, 30년 동안 총 안전성 향상 편익은 1,392억 원에 이르는 것으로 분석되었다.

택시 영상DB를 활용한 교통약자 보행자 사고의 심각도 분석 (Severity Analysis for Vulnerable Pedestrian Accident Utilizing Vehicle Recorder Database of Taxi)

  • 정재훈;설재훈;최성택;노정현;이지선
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제29권3호
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    • pp.98-106
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    • 2014
  • This study proposes severity analysis for pedestrian accidents by improving variables which were used for general severity analysis. The existing variables were collected based on the interviews with policeman or witnesses and evidence of accidents. Therefore, existing variables were subjective and had several measurement errors. In order to improve such problems, this study collected variables from vehicle recorder of taxi which recorded the moment of accidents. As a result, explanatory power of independent variables was enhanced and the complete objective variables could be collected. After collecting variables, ordered probit model was developed by utilizing vehicle recorder database. Fitness of ordered probit model was 0.23. Vehicle speed and pedestrian's eye direction variables were the most critical factors for severity of pedestrian accident. In addition, severity analysis for vulnerable pedestrian was carried out. As a result, it was revealed that vehicle speed, pedestrian's eye direction and safety zone variables affected the severity of pedestrian accidents most. Particularly, vehicle speed variable is the most important factor. Consequently, driver's defensive driving and compliance to the regulations are the priority to reduce severity of pedestrian accidents and prevent pedestrian accident.

해군함정 사고사례 및 위험도 분석에 관한 연구 (Analysis of a Naval Warship Accident and Related Risk)

  • 신대운;박영수;최광영;박상원
    • 해양환경안전학회지
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    • 제24권7호
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    • pp.863-869
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    • 2018
  • 최근 해상 교통 환경의 변화로 인해 해군함정 사고가 지속적으로 발생하고 있으며, 특히 2017년 미 해군 구축함 사고로 인해 심각한 인명피해가 발생하였다. 이에 본 연구에서는 해군 교육 자료, 해군함정 사고 재결서, 미구축함 사고 분석 보고서의 해군함정 사고사례를 이용해 해군함정 사고를 분석하고 시나리오를 구축하였다. 이를 위해 조사한 자료를 중심으로 함정 사고 현황을 파악하고 사고사례를 분석하였다. 사고재현 절차에 따라 사고사례 17건을 재현하고 해군함정 사고 시나리오를 구축하였다. 해군함정 사고 17건의 CPA, TCPA 및 PARK 모델 위험도 분석 결과, 충돌위험은 평균적으로 사고발생 5~6분 전을 기준으로 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구의 결과를 해군 사례 교육 및 시뮬레이션 교육의 시나리오 기초자료로 제공하여 해양사고 예방에 기여하고자 한다.

국내 가스사고와 기상자료의 데이터마이닝을 이용한 가스사고 예측모델 연구 (Data Mining of Gas Accident and Meteorological Data in Korea for a Prediction Model of Gas Accidents)

  • 허영택;신동일;이수경
    • 한국가스학회지
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    • 제16권1호
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 2012
  • 본 연구에서는 국내 가스사고의 발생 환경을 분석하여 가스사고의 재발을 방지하고자 가스 사고를 유형별로 분석하였다. 가스사고는 지속적으로 발생하고 있고, 사고의 내용에서도 시기별, 날씨 등에 따라 가스사용 형태가 변하고 있어서 가스의 사용환경과 가스사고는 밀접한 관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 가스사고를 평균기온, 최고기온, 최저기온, 상대습도, 운량, 강수량 및 풍속의 7가지 기상요소별로 분석해 본 결과, 기온과 상대습도 등에 따라 영향을 받고 있은 것으로 나타났으며, 맑은 날, 풍속은 낮을 때 가스사고 발생빈도가 많았다. 가스사고 예측을 위하여 제시된 모델식을 활용하여 기상청의 일기예보 시스템과 연계하여 가스사고 발생 가능성을 실시간으로 제공하고, 회사의 업무시스템과 연계시켜 실시간으로 확인이 가능하도록 하여 가스사고 예방활동에 적극 활용할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

지방부 신호교차로 주·야간 교통사고 예측모형 개발 및 비교 분석 (Development of Traffic Accident Models at Rural Signalized Intersections by Day and Night)

  • 이근희;정상운;박민호;이동민;노정현
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제17권3호
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    • pp.107-115
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    • 2015
  • PURPOSES : The purposes of this study are to compare the day and night characteristics and to develop the models of traffic accidents. in Rural Signalized Intersections METHODS : To develop day and night traffic accident models using the Negative Binomial Model, which was constructed for 156 signalized intersections of rural areas, through field investigations and casualty data from the National Police Agency. RESULTS : Among a total of 17 variances, the daytime traffic accident estimate models identified a total of 9 influence factors of traffic accidents. In the case of nighttime traffic accident models, 11 influence factors of traffic accidents were identified. CONCLUSIONS : By comparing the two models, it was determined that the number of main roads was an independent factor for daytime accidents. For nighttime accidents, several factors were independently involved, including the number of entrances to sub-roads, whether left turn lanes existed in major roads, the distances of pedestrian crossings to main roads and sub-roads, lighting facilities, and others. It was apparent that if the same situation arises, the probability of an accident occurring at night is higher than during the day because the speed of travel through intersections in rural areas is somewhat higher at night than during the day.

Needs for Changing Accident Investigation from Blaming to Systems Approach

  • Kee, Dohyung
    • 대한인간공학회지
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    • 제35권3호
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    • pp.143-153
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    • 2016
  • Objective: The purposes of this study are to survey needs for changing accident investigation from blaming to systems approach and to briefly summarize systems-based accident analysis techniques. Background: In modern complex socio-technical systems, accidents are caused by a variety of contributing factors including human, technical, organizational, social factors, not by just a single violation or error of a specific actor, but accidents investigation used to be focused on the incorrect action of individuals. A new approach investigating causes of accidents as a symptom of a deficient system is required. Method: This study was mainly based on survey of literatures related to accidents, accidents investigation, which included academic journals, newspapers, etc. Results: This study showed that accidents investigation of Korea focusing on blaming is problematic. This was confirmed by two concepts of migration and hindsight bias frequently found in accident causation studies, and an attribute of accidents having varying causes. This was illustrated with an example of Sewol ferry capsizing accident. Representative systems-based accident analysis models including Swiss cheese model, AcciMap, HFACS, FRAM and STAMP were briefly introduced, which can be used in systematic accidents investigations. Finally, this study proposed a procedure for establishing preventive measures of accidents, which was composed of two steps: public inquiry and devising preventive measures. Conclusion: A new approach considering how safety-critical components such as technical and social elements, and their interactions lead to accidents is needed for preventing reoccurrence of similar accidents in complex socio-technical systems. Application: The results would be used as a reference or guideline when the safety relevant governmental organizations investigate accidents.

안전 리더십이 안전 행동, 안전 분위기, 사고에 미치는 효과: 메타 분석 (The Influence of Safety Leadership on Safety Behavior, Safety Climate and Accident: Meta Analysis)

  • 문광수
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제33권6호
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    • pp.66-76
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    • 2018
  • This study examined the influence of safety leadership on safety behavior, safety climate and accident using meta analysis. Specifically, safety leadership model which incorporated both transformational and active transactional leadership styles was tested using meta analysis. The results showed that both transformational and active transactional leadership had a positive relationship with safety compliance and participation behavior, and organizational safety climate. However, both leadership styles had a negative relationship with accident. In addition, transformational leadership had significant greater effects on safety behaviors and accident than transactional leadership. In contrast, although there were no significant differences, transactional leadership has a greater effect on the safety climate. These findings suggest that active transactional leadership is important in establishing perceived safety climate of employees, whereas transformational leadership is more related with improving employees' safety behaviors. Therefore, in line with the previous studies of safety leadership, a combination of both transformational and transactional styles will be most beneficial for developing organizational safety management program. Based on these results, practical implications and further research in terms of development for safety leadership program are discussed.

나프타분해플랜트의 부탄추출공정에서 부탄증기의 연속누출에 의한 증기운 폭발사고의 영향평가 (The Consequence Analysis for Unconfined Vapor Cloud Explosion Accident by the Continuous Release of Butane Vapor in the Debutanizing Process of Naphtha Cracking Plant)

  • 손민일;이헌창;장서일;김태옥
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제2권4호
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    • pp.33-43
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    • 2000
  • The consequence analysis for the unconfined vapor cloud explosion(UVCE) accident by the continuous release of butane vapor was performed and effects of process parameters on consequences were analyzed in standard conditions. For the case of continuous release(87.8 kg/s) of butane vapor at 8 m elevated height in the debutanizing process of tile naphtha cracking plant operating at 877 kPa & 346.75 K, we found that combustion ranges of dispersed vapor estimated by HMP model were 11.2~120.2 m and overpressures estimated by TNT equivalency model at 200 m were about 37.35~55.1 kPa. Also, overpressures estimated by Model UVCE I based on advective travel time to $X_{LFL}$ were smaller than those estimated by Model UVCE IIbased on real travel time between $X_{UFL}$ and $X_{LFL}$. At the same time, damage intensities at 200 m and effect ranges by overpressure could be predicted. Furthermore, simulation results showed that effects of operating pressures on consequences were larger than those of operating temperatures and results of accidents were increased with increasing operating pressures. At this time, sensitivities of overpressures for UVCE accident by the continuous release were about 5 kPa/atm.

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