• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.969-980
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• 2017

Galloping is one of the most serious vibration problems in transmission lines. Power lines can be extensively damaged owing to aerodynamic instabilities caused by ice accretion. In this study, the accident probability induced by galloping phenomenon was analyzed using logistic regression analysis. As former studies have generally concluded, main factors considered were local weather factors and physical factors of power delivery systems. Since the number of transmission towers outnumbers the number of weather observatories, interpolation of weather factors, Kriging to be more specific, has been conducted in prior to forming galloping accident estimation model. Physical factors have been provided by Korea Electric Power Corporation, however because of the large number of explanatory variables, variable selection has been conducted, leaving total 11 variables. Before forming estimation model, with 84 provided galloping cases, 840 non-galloped cases were chosen out of 13 billion cases. Prediction model for accidents by galloping has been formed with logistic regression model and validated with 4-fold validation method, corresponding AUC value of ROC curve has been used to assess the discrimination level of estimation models. As the result, logistic regression analysis effectively discriminated the power lines that experienced galloping accidents from those that did not.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.155-162
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• 2010

교통사망사고중, 고령자 교통사고가 30%이상을 차지하고 있으며, 해마다 증가추세인 고령 노인교통사고와 관련, 고령화사회에 진입한 현실을 반영하여, 향후 특단의 대책을 수립해야할 필요성이 절박한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 노인 고령자들이 주로 지방도시 지역의 지방부도로 주변에 밀집거주 및 이동하는 현실을 착안하여 지방부도로 고령보행자사고 특성을 분석하고, 이에 따른 사고심각도 모형을 개발하는 데 주안점을 두었다. 경찰청 교통사고자료를 720건 입수하여, 경상 중상 사망등 가중치를 반영한 사고심각도 모형을 중회귀분석에 의해 도출하였으며, 그 결과 사고심각도에 가장 영향력이 큰 독립변수는 역시 과속차량임을 통계적으로 입증할 수 있었다.

• 대한인간공학회지
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• 제36권5호
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• pp.485-498
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• 2017

Objective: This study aims to survey and compare three systemic accident investigation techniques of Accimap, STAMP and FRAM, based on the application studies of the Sewol ferry accident. Background: Traditional accident investigation methods such as domino models, FTA, etc. work well for losses caused by physical component failures or actions of human in relatively simple systems, but are unable to depict mechanisms generating errors and violations in the current complex socio-technical systems. For better understanding the structure and behavior of the socio-technical systems, systemic techniques have been developed and used. Method: This study was mainly based on survey of literatures through surfing webpages of ScienceDirect and Google, and ergonomics relevant journals. The key words of Sewol, Sewol ferry, Sewol ferry accident, etc. were used in the survey. Results: Three systemic accident investigation methods included similar actors in the Sewol ferry accident including government, Ministry of Ocean and Fisheries, Korean Coast Guard, Korean Register of Shipping, Korea Shipping Association, Chonghaejin Marine Company, crew members. The methods graphically represented each level's failures or performance variabilities of relevant functions and relationships between them. It was shown that the systemic methods consider the entire system, ranging from the environment in which the accident occurred, to the role of government in shaping the system of work. Each method has its own comparative pros and cons, but the Accimap has advantages in terms of time of analysis, data required, model complexity and degree of comprehensiveness. Conclusion: This study reviewed and compared three systemic accident investigation methods, which showed that there are systemic characteristics and pros and cons in the methods. Application: The results would be used as a guideline when selecting accident investigation methods.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.142-147
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• 2018

This study aims to analyze and discuss the accidents based on the level of traffic culture (LOT). In pursuing the above, LOT are divided into three categories based on the standardized index of traffic culture. Also, this study focuses on developing the accident models using GLM (generalized linear model). The main results are as follows. First, the null hypotheses that the ratios of fatal and serious injured persons (FSI) are the same over categories are rejected. Second, as the common variables, the ratio of turn signal usage and elderly population are analysed to be impacted to the ratio of FSI. Third, the traffic culture indicators among 5 accident factors which give impact to 'high level' are judged to affect the reduction of FSI. Fourth, compared to other levels, the traffic law violations among 7 accident factors of 'medium level' are estimated to influence the increase of FSI. Finally, in 'low level', the increasing ratio of traffic culture index compared to that of previous year and the number of hospital beds per person are evaluated to be significant to reducing the ratio of FSI. This study can be expected to give some policy implications to regional traffic safety policy-making.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.141-146
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• 2012

This study deals with the accident model using panel data which are composed of time series data of 2005 through 2007 and cross sectional data of link sections in Cheongju. Panel data are repeatedly collected over time from the same sample. The purpose of the study is to develop the traffic accident model using the above panel data. In pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to deriving the optimal models among various models including TSCSREG (Time Series Cross Section Regression). The main results are as follows. First, 8 panel data models which explained the various effects of accidents were developed. Second, $R^2$ values of fixed effect models were analyzed to be higher than those of random effect models. Finally, such the variables as the sum of the number of crosswalk on intersections and sum of the number of intersections were analyzed to be positive to the accidents.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2003년도 춘계공동학술대회논문집
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• pp.42-50
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• 2003

우리나라의 해양안전심판원은 지난 40년동안 많은 업적을 남겼지만, 아직도 해양사고의 조사에 대한 법과 제도 및 매뉴얼 등에서 미흡한 점이 있다. 조사매뉴얼은 국제해사기구의 해양사고조사지침 등의 국제규정과 기준을 수용하지 못하고 심판지침과 함께 작성되어 있을 뿐만아니라 그 구성과 내용 및 조사기법 등이 매우 부실하다. 그리고, 조사제도는 심판원이 독립성을 가지지 못하고 재발방지를 위한 권고기능이 크게 위축되어 있는 실정이다. 또한, 해양사고의 원인판단지침이 없어 조사관이 항법적용을 혼동하거나 오류를 범하는 경우가 종종 발생하고 있고 초임 조사관 등의 사고원인판단의 기준으로 활용할 수 있는 교재도 없다. 이 연구에서는 영국, 미국, 네덜란드 및 일본의 조사매뉴얼과 조사제도를 비교ㆍ분석하여 개선안을 제안하고, 사고 종류별 질문조사기법을 제안한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• 제54권7호
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• pp.2702-2713
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• 2022

A steam generator tube rupture accompanying a core damage may cause the fission product to be released to environment bypassing the containment. In such an accident, the steam generator is the major path of the radioactive aerosol release. AEOLUS facility, the scaled-down model of Korean type steam generator, was built to examine the aerosol removal in the steam generator during the steam generator tube rupture accident. Integral and separate effect tests were performed with the facility for the dry and flooded conditions, and the decontamination factors were presented for different tube configurations and submergences. The dry test results were compared with the existing test results and with the analyses to investigate the aerosol retention physics by the tube bundle, with respect to the particle size and the bundle geometry. In the flooded tests, the effect of submergence were shown and the retention in the jet injection region were presented with respect to the Stokes number. The test results are planned to be used to constitute the aerosol retention model, specifically applicable for the analysis of the steam generator tube rupture accident in Korean nuclear power plants to evaluate realistic fission product behavior.

• 선박안전
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• 통권27호
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• pp.25-36
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• 2009

Despite the development of the various navigational equipment, such as GPS, ARPA, ECDIS, AIS, VDR, and hull monitoring system, marine accidents are still a leading concern in shipping industry. For all accidents over the reporting period, approximately 60 to 80% of the accidents was involved in human error. It means that in each case, some events which were associated with human error initiated an accident, and those failures of human performance led to the failure to avoid an accident or mitigate it's consequences. However, the improvement and the effort on the maritime human error are still limited in an elementary step. The objective of this paper is to propose a modified Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) model in order to analyse the collision accidents of tug-barge ship.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제23권55호
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• pp.25-31
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• 2000

To make a better decision about when to shutdown a nuclear power plant, we build a decision model using influence diagrams. We proceed the analysis adopting a bayesian approach. Firstly, an accident arrival rate is assumed to be known and this assumption is relaxed later. We perform our analysis on the cases of exponential time to accidents, and gamma distribution for the arrival rate. An optimal shutdown time is obtained considering the trade-off between the costs incurred by an accident due to late shutdown and the possible loss of revenues due to the early shutdown. We also derive the upper bound of the failure rate where we may operate the plant.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.77-82
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• 2018

This paper aims to analyze the accident based on changing patterns of traffic culture index. For this purpose, this paper particularly focuses on classifying the traffic culture patterns and developing the traffic accidents using panel count data model. The main results are as follows. First, the traffic culture patterns are divided into 'increasing', 'decreasing' and 'other' patterns. The null hypotheses that the number of accident are the same over patterns are rejected. Second, 4 fixed effect negative binomial models which are all statistically significant are developed. Third, the regions with 'increasing' pattern are analyzed to be mostly the counties, and to demand the traffic law enforcement. Fourth, the regions with 'decreasing' pattern are evaluated to be mainly the districts and to require such the traffic culture as turn signal usage. Finally, the regions with 'other' pattern are analyzed to be mostly the cities and to ask for enhancing the level of traffic culture.