• Title/Summary/Keyword: accident analysis model

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A Method to Measure Damage Areas by the types of Railroad Hazardous Material through GIS Spatial Analysis (GIS 공간 분석기법을 통한 철도사고위험물질별 피해규모 자동추출방안)

  • Kim, Sang-Gyun;Kim, Si-Gon;Lee, Won-Tea
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1769-1778
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    • 2009
  • Due to the industrialization and urbanization, the transport of hazardous materials increases, which rises possibilities in occurring prospective accidents in terms of hazardous material transport as well. This study applied the model developed from the previous research to analyze the scale of damage areas from the accidents related to hazardous material accidents, as well as suggested a method to measure automatically the scale of accident including casualties and environmental damage based on the guideline which suggests the quantities of hazardous materials exposed from an accident and was defined in the study of standardization for hazardous material classification. A buffering analysis technique of Geographic Information System (GIS) was applied for that. To apply the model which evaluates the scale of population and exposure to environment on each link, rail network, zones, rail accident data, rail freight trips, and locations of rivers etc were complied as a database for GIS analysis. In conclusion, a method to measure damage areas by the types of hazardous materials was introduced using a Clip and a Special Join technique for overlay analysis.

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Development of Accident Prediction Models for Freeway Interchange Ramps (고속도로 인터체인지 연결로에서의 교통사고 예측모형 개발)

  • Park, Hyo-Sin;Son, Bong-Su;Kim, Hyeong-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.123-135
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    • 2007
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between traffic accidents occurring at trumpet interchange ramps according to accident type as well as the relevant factors that led to the traffic accidents, such as geometric design elements and traffic volumes. In the process of analysis of the distribution of traffic accidents, negative binomial distribution was selected as the most appropriate model. Negative binomial regression models were developed for total trumpet interchange ramps, direct ramps, loop ramps and semi-direct ramps based on the negative binomial distribution. Based upon several statistical diagnostics of the difference between observed accidents and predicted accidents with four previously developed models, the fit proved to be reasonable. Understanding of statistically significant variables in the developed model will enable designers to increase efficiency in terms of road operations and the development of traffic accident prevention policies in accordance with road design features.

The Effects of Individual Accidents and Neighborhood Environmental Characteristics on the Severity of Pedestrian Traffic Accidents in Seoul (개별 사고특성 및 근린환경 특성이 서울시 보행자 교통사고 심각도에 미치는 영향)

  • Ko, Dong-Won;Park, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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    • v.35 no.8
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    • pp.101-109
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    • 2019
  • Korea's transportation paradigm is shifting from a vehicle-oriented transportation plan to a pedestrian-friendly environment that emphasizes walking safety. However, the level of pedestrian traffic accidents in Korea is still high and serious. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors affecting the severity of pedestrians traffic accidents using the multilevel logistic regression model based on 2015-2017 pedestrian accidents data provided by the Traffic Accident Analysis System(TAAS). The main results of the multilevel logistic regression model showed that 89% of pedestrian traffic accidents in Seoul were explained by individual characteristics such as drivers and pedestrians, and 11% were explained by neighborhood environmental characteristics. The results are as follows : In the individual characteristics such as pedestrians and drivers, the older the pedestrians and the drivers, the higher the traffic accident severity. The severity of traffic accidents was high when the pedestrians were female and the drivers were male. In the case of accident types, traffic accidents were more serious in the cases of heavy vehicles, inclement weather, and occurring at intersections and crosswalks. The results of the neighborhood environmental characteristics are as follows. The intersection density and the crosswalk density tended to reduce the severity of traffic accidents. On the other hand, the traffic light density and the school zones were founded to related to the higher level of traffic accident severity. This study suggests that both individual and neighborhood environmental characteristics should be considered together to prevent and reduce the severity of pedestrian traffic accidents.

Analysis-based Pedestrian Traffic Incident Analysis Based on Logistic Regression (로지스틱 회귀분석 기반 노인 보행자 교통사고 요인 분석)

  • Siwon Kim;Jeongwon Gil;Jaekyung Kwon;Jae seong Hwang;Choul ki Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2024
  • The characteristics of elderly traffic accidents were identified by reflecting the situation of the elderly population in Korea, which is entering an ultra-aging society, and the relationship between independent and dependent variables was analyzed by classifying traffic accidents of serious or higher and traffic accidents of minor or lower in elderly pedestrian traffic accidents using binomial variables. Data collection, processing, and variable selection were performed by acquiring data from the elderly pedestrian traffic accident analysis system (TAAS) for the past 10 years (from 13 to 22 years), and basic statistics and analysis by accident factors were performed. A total of 15 influencing variables were derived by applying the logistic regression model, and the influencing variables that have the greatest influence on the probability of a traffic accident involving severe or higher elderly pedestrians were derived. After that, statistical tests were performed to analyze the suitability of the logistic model, and a method for predicting the probability of a traffic accident according to the construction of a prediction model was presented.

Analysis of Elderly Drivers' Accident Models Considering Operations and Physical Characteristics (고령운전자 운전 및 신체특성을 반영한 교통사고 분석 연구)

  • Lim, Sam Jin;Park, Jun Tae;Kim, Young Il;Kim, Tae Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2012
  • The number of traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers over the age of 65 has surged over the past ten years from 37,000 to 274,000 cases. The proportion of elderly drivers' accidents has jumped 3.1 times from 1.2% to 3.7% out of all traffic accidents, and traffic safety organizations are pursuing diverse measures to address the situation. Above all, connecting safety measures with an in-depth research on behavioral and physical characteristics of elderly drivers will prove vital. This study conducted an empirical research linking the driving characteristics and traffic accidents by elderly drivers based on the Driving Aptitude Test items and traffic accident data, which enabled the measurement of behavioral characteristics of elderly drivers. In developing the Influence Model, we applied the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model and selected an accident prediction model based on the Bayesian Influence in regards to the ZIP regression model and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model. According to the results of the AAE analysis, the ZIP regression model was more appropriate and it was found that three variables? prediction of velocity, diversion, and cognitive ability? had a relation of influence with traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers.

Analysis of Factors Behind Human Error in Fatal Construction Accidents using the m-SHEL Model (m-SHEL 모델에 의한 건설 중대 사고재해의 휴먼에러 배후 요인 분석)

  • An, Sung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.415-423
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    • 2022
  • As human factors are the most important cause of construction accidents, it is important to reduce human error in construction work to reduce accidents. However, the error forcing context in organizational situations acts as a factor behind human error. Therefore, fatal construction accidents were analyzed using the m-SHEL model, which can identify the factors behind human errors. Through such analysis, it was found that there are differences in the detailed factors behind human errors according to the type of fatal accidents in construction, This study is meaningful in that it confirmed through accident cases that it is important to understand and respond to organizational situations in order to reduce human error in construction work.

A Study of Risk Factor Analysis of Republic of Korea Air Force Training Pilot (공군 훈련 조종사 위험요인 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Hakbong Lee;Ohsung Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2023
  • The overall Air Force's serious accident rate is decreasing, but the trainer's accident rate is on the rise from 0.24% in '00~'09 to 0.77% in '01~'19. Base on the SHELL model recommended by the ICAO, the risk factors of the introductory flight training course were analyzed, implications were examined, and safety promotion measures were proposed. A survey of 25 questions was organized based on regulations, guidelines, and related data for each component of the SHELL model in accordance with the introductory course of Air Force flight training. The survey was divided into a student group and instructor group and compared and analyzed into L-L, L-S, L-H, and L-E based on the results after conducting it, and implications for this were derived. Compared to other analysis factors, L-L showed that the average of the instructor group was relatively higher that of the student group in all questions.

Safety Management Information System in Roads Construction Work (도로 건설공사의 안전관리정보시스템 개발)

  • Park, Jong-Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.72-77
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    • 2012
  • There are insufficient models that find problems and solutions for accident prevention through risk assessment and suggest safe work process and work instruction from foundation works to finish work for accident decrease. This paper presents a quantitative risk assessment model by analysis of risk factors in each process such as earth works, drainage works, pavement works, appurtenant works and etc based on accident examples and investigation on actual condition in roads construction work. In addition, the safety management system was developed to perform risk assessment of construction and use it for effective safety training for labor.

Developing An Accident Prediction Model for Railroad-Highway Grade Crossings (철도건널목의 사고예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 강승규
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.43-58
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    • 1995
  • This paper discusses some of the results of investigation of railroad-highway grade crossing accidents and accident-related inventory information that was collected from the Pusan District Office of the Korean National Railroads. Established statistical techniques were applied to tabulated data to obtain an accident prediction equation that estimates the expected probability of accidents at each crossing under various grade crossing situations. It was found that the most significant factor that influences the railroad crossing accidents was flagger. The other factors were train and traffic volumes, number of tracks. crossing angle, maximum timetable train speed, algebraic grade difference, and lighting facility. No significant effects was identified with railroad crossing gates. The results of the analysis and the uses of the prediction equation for the development of warrants for safety improvements are also discussed.

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A Study on the Two Phase Flow in the Floor of Containment Building after a Loss of Coolant Accident (냉각재 상실사고 후 격납건물내의 이상유동 연구)

  • Bae, Jin-Hyo;Park, Man Heung;Koh, Chul-Kyun;Lee, Jae-Heon
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers B
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    • v.23 no.10
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    • pp.1274-1284
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    • 1999
  • The Regulatory Guide 1.82 recommends an analysis of hydraulic performance for sump of ECCS (Emergency Core Cooing System) when LOCA(Loss of Coolant Accident) occurs in a nuclear power plant. The present study deals with 3-dimensional, unsteady, turbulent and two-phase flow simulation to examine the behavior of mixture of reactor coolant and debris near the floor of containment building in conjunction with appropriate assumptions. The dispersed solid model has been adjusted to the interfacial momentum transfer between reactor coolant and debris. According to the results, the counterclockwiserecirculation zone had been formed in the region between sump and connection aisle about 376 second after LOCA occurs. The debris thickness accumulated on a sump screen periodically increases or decreases up to 2000 second, afterwards its peak decreases.