• Title/Summary/Keyword: absolute model accuracy

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A generation method of ASF mapping by the predicted ASF with the measured one in the Yeongil Bay (ASF 예측모델과 실측치를 이용한 영일만 해상 ASF 맵 생성기법)

  • Hwang, Sang-Wook;Shin, Mi Young;Choi, Yun Sub;Yu, Donghui;Park, Chansik;Yang, Sung-Hoon;Lee, Chang-Bok;Lee, Sang Jeong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.375-381
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    • 2013
  • In order to establish eLoran system it needs the betterment of a receiver and a transmitter, the add of data channel to loran pulse for loran system information and the differential Loran for compensating Loran-c signal. Precise ASF database map is essential if the Loran delivers the high absolute accuracy of navigation demanded at maritime harbor entrance. In this study we developed the ASF mapping method using predicted ASFs compensated by the measured ASFs for maritime in the harbor. Actual ASF is measured by the legacy Loran signal transmitted from Pohang station in the GRI 9930 chain. We measured absolute propagation delay between the Pohang transmitting station and the measurement points by comparing with the cesium clock for the calculation of the ASFs. Monteath model was used for the irregular terrain along the propagation path in the Yeongil Bay. We measured the actual ASFs at the 12 measurement points over the Yeongil Bay. In our ASF-mapping method we estimated that the each offsets between the predicted and the measured ASFs at the 12 spaced points in the Yeongil. We obtained the ASF map by adjusting the predicted ASF results to fit the measured ASFs over Yeungil bay.

Detection of Wildfire Smoke Plumes Using GEMS Images and Machine Learning (GEMS 영상과 기계학습을 이용한 산불 연기 탐지)

  • Jeong, Yemin;Kim, Seoyeon;Kim, Seung-Yeon;Yu, Jeong-Ah;Lee, Dong-Won;Lee, Yangwon
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.38 no.5_3
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    • pp.967-977
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    • 2022
  • The occurrence and intensity of wildfires are increasing with climate change. Emissions from forest fire smoke are recognized as one of the major causes affecting air quality and the greenhouse effect. The use of satellite product and machine learning is essential for detection of forest fire smoke. Until now, research on forest fire smoke detection has had difficulties due to difficulties in cloud identification and vague standards of boundaries. The purpose of this study is to detect forest fire smoke using Level 1 and Level 2 data of Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), a Korean environmental satellite sensor, and machine learning. In March 2022, the forest fire in Gangwon-do was selected as a case. Smoke pixel classification modeling was performed by producing wildfire smoke label images and inputting GEMS Level 1 and Level 2 data to the random forest model. In the trained model, the importance of input variables is Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), 380 nm and 340 nm radiance difference, Ultra-Violet Aerosol Index (UVAI), Visible Aerosol Index (VisAI), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA), formaldehyde (HCHO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 380 nm radiance, and 340 nm radiance were shown in that order. In addition, in the estimation of the forest fire smoke probability (0 ≤ p ≤ 1) for 2,704 pixels, Mean Bias Error (MBE) is -0.002, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) is 0.026, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is 0.087, and Correlation Coefficient (CC) showed an accuracy of 0.981.

Bone Age Assessment Using Artificial Intelligence in Korean Pediatric Population: A Comparison of Deep-Learning Models Trained With Healthy Chronological and Greulich-Pyle Ages as Labels

  • Pyeong Hwa Kim;Hee Mang Yoon;Jeong Rye Kim;Jae-Yeon Hwang;Jin-Ho Choi;Jisun Hwang;Jaewon Lee;Jinkyeong Sung;Kyu-Hwan Jung;Byeonguk Bae;Ah Young Jung;Young Ah Cho;Woo Hyun Shim;Boram Bak;Jin Seong Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.24 no.11
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    • pp.1151-1163
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    • 2023
  • Objective: To develop a deep-learning-based bone age prediction model optimized for Korean children and adolescents and evaluate its feasibility by comparing it with a Greulich-Pyle-based deep-learning model. Materials and Methods: A convolutional neural network was trained to predict age according to the bone development shown on a hand radiograph (bone age) using 21036 hand radiographs of Korean children and adolescents without known bone development-affecting diseases/conditions obtained between 1998 and 2019 (median age [interquartile range {IQR}], 9 [7-12] years; male:female, 11794:9242) and their chronological ages as labels (Korean model). We constructed 2 separate external datasets consisting of Korean children and adolescents with healthy bone development (Institution 1: n = 343; median age [IQR], 10 [4-15] years; male: female, 183:160; Institution 2: n = 321; median age [IQR], 9 [5-14] years; male: female, 164:157) to test the model performance. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and proportions of bone age predictions within 6, 12, 18, and 24 months of the reference age (chronological age) were compared between the Korean model and a commercial model (VUNO Med-BoneAge version 1.1; VUNO) trained with Greulich-Pyle-based age as the label (GP-based model). Results: Compared with the GP-based model, the Korean model showed a lower RMSE (11.2 vs. 13.8 months; P = 0.004) and MAE (8.2 vs. 10.5 months; P = 0.002), a higher proportion of bone age predictions within 18 months of chronological age (88.3% vs. 82.2%; P = 0.031) for Institution 1, and a lower MAE (9.5 vs. 11.0 months; P = 0.022) and higher proportion of bone age predictions within 6 months (44.5% vs. 36.4%; P = 0.044) for Institution 2. Conclusion: The Korean model trained using the chronological ages of Korean children and adolescents without known bone development-affecting diseases/conditions as labels performed better in bone age assessment than the GP-based model in the Korean pediatric population. Further validation is required to confirm its accuracy.

Analysis of the Influence of Shipping Policies on the Expansion of Korea's Merchant Fleet Using System Dynamics (시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 해운정책이 우리나라 외항선대 증가에 미친 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sung-Bum;Jeon, Jun-Woo;Yeo, Gi-Tae
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.23-40
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    • 2015
  • This study measures how Korean shipping policies influence the expansion of the country's merchant fleet using system dynamics. It uses various indexes as factors influencing the gross tonnage of the Korean merchant fleet, such as the Baltic Dry Index, Howe Robinson Container Index, China Containerized Freight Index, and Worldscale Index, as well as the US dollar-Korean won exchange rate, world merchant fleet statistics, and the debt ratio of Korean shipping companies. After establishing the simulation model, the mean absolute percentage error is found to be less than 10%, confirming the accuracy of the model. Therefore, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to measure the influence of the selected shipping policies, including the gross tonnage of vessels registered under the Korean second registry system, loans of publicly owned financial institutions to shipping companies, ship investment fund, and the number of shipping companies participating in the tonnage tax scheme. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the influence of vessel tonnage and loans to shipping companies is the most significant, while that of the number of companies participating in the tonnage tax scheme is minimal.

Uncertainty Analysis for Seakeeping Model Tests (정현파 중 운동모형시험에 대한 불확실성 해석)

  • Deuk-Joon Yum;Ho-Young Lee;Choung-Mook Lee
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.75-89
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    • 1993
  • The present paper describes an application of UA(Uncertainty Analysis) to seakeeping model test, basically according to the Performance Test Code of ASME(American Society of Mechanical Engineers), in which all the possible error sources involved in the preparation of test, calibration of instruments, data acquisition and analysis are quantified, and summed up with error propagation coefficients to the final uncertainties. The differences between the static test such as resistance and propulsion test and the dynamic test like seakeeping test are clearly identified during all the procedures of UA and asymmetric bias errors are considered. The DRE(data reduction equation) subject to present UA are the heave and pitch response amplitude operator and nondimensionalized absolute frequency. The usefulness of UA in seakeeping test were confirmed not only for quantifying errors and improving measurement accuracy but also for the validation of various seakeeping analysis tools.

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An Analysis of the Key Factors Affecting Apartment Sales Price in Gwangju, South Korea (광주광역시 아파트 매매가 영향요인 분석)

  • Lim, Sung Yeon;Ko, Chang Wan;Jeong, Young-Seon
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.62-73
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    • 2022
  • Researches on the prediction of domestic apartment sales price have been continuously conducted, but it is not easy to accurately predict apartment prices because various characteristics are compounded. Prior to predicting apartment sales price, the analysis of major factors, influencing on sale prices, is of paramount importance to improve the accuracy of sales price. Therefore, this study aims to analyze what are the factors that affect the apartment sales price in Gwangju, which is currently showing a steady increase rate. With 6 years of Gwangju apartment transaction price and various social factor data, several maching learning techniques such as multiple regression analysis, random forest, and deep artificial neural network algorithms are applied to identify major factors in each model. The performances of each model are compared with RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error), MAE (Mean Absolute Error) and R2 (coefficient of determination). The experiment shows that several factors such as 'contract year', 'applicable area', 'certificate of deposit', 'mortgage rate', 'leading index', 'producer price index', 'coincident composite index' are analyzed as main factors, affecting the sales price.

A Study on Predictive Modeling of I-131 Radioactivity Based on Machine Learning (머신러닝 기반 고용량 I-131의 용량 예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Yeon-Wook You;Chung-Wun Lee;Jung-Soo Kim
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 2023
  • High-dose I-131 used for the treatment of thyroid cancer causes localized exposure among radiology technologists handling it. There is a delay between the calibration date and when the dose of I-131 is administered to a patient. Therefore, it is necessary to directly measure the radioactivity of the administered dose using a dose calibrator. In this study, we attempted to apply machine learning modeling to measured external dose rates from shielded I-131 in order to predict their radioactivity. External dose rates were measured at 1 m, 0.3 m, and 0.1 m distances from a shielded container with the I-131, with a total of 868 sets of measurements taken. For the modeling process, we utilized the hold-out method to partition the data with a 7:3 ratio (609 for the training set:259 for the test set). For the machine learning algorithms, we chose linear regression, decision tree, random forest and XGBoost. To evaluate the models, we calculated root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) to evaluate accuracy and R2 to evaluate explanatory power. Evaluation results are as follows. Linear regression (RMSE 268.15, MSE 71901.87, MAE 231.68, R2 0.92), decision tree (RMSE 108.89, MSE 11856.92, MAE 19.24, R2 0.99), random forest (RMSE 8.89, MSE 79.10, MAE 6.55, R2 0.99), XGBoost (RMSE 10.21, MSE 104.22, MAE 7.68, R2 0.99). The random forest model achieved the highest predictive ability. Improving the model's performance in the future is expected to contribute to lowering exposure among radiology technologists.

Predicting concrete's compressive strength through three hybrid swarm intelligent methods

  • Zhang Chengquan;Hamidreza Aghajanirefah;Kseniya I. Zykova;Hossein Moayedi;Binh Nguyen Le
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.149-163
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    • 2023
  • One of the main design parameters traditionally utilized in projects of geotechnical engineering is the uniaxial compressive strength. The present paper employed three artificial intelligence methods, i.e., the stochastic fractal search (SFS), the multi-verse optimization (MVO), and the vortex search algorithm (VSA), in order to determine the compressive strength of concrete (CSC). For the same reason, 1030 concrete specimens were subjected to compressive strength tests. According to the obtained laboratory results, the fly ash, cement, water, slag, coarse aggregates, fine aggregates, and SP were subjected to tests as the input parameters of the model in order to decide the optimum input configuration for the estimation of the compressive strength. The performance was evaluated by employing three criteria, i.e., the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the determination coefficient (R2). The evaluation of the error criteria and the determination coefficient obtained from the above three techniques indicates that the SFS-MLP technique outperformed the MVO-MLP and VSA-MLP methods. The developed artificial neural network models exhibit higher amounts of errors and lower correlation coefficients in comparison with other models. Nonetheless, the use of the stochastic fractal search algorithm has resulted in considerable enhancement in precision and accuracy of the evaluations conducted through the artificial neural network and has enhanced its performance. According to the results, the utilized SFS-MLP technique showed a better performance in the estimation of the compressive strength of concrete (R2=0.99932 and 0.99942, and RMSE=0.32611 and 0.24922). The novelty of our study is the use of a large dataset composed of 1030 entries and optimization of the learning scheme of the neural prediction model via a data distribution of a 20:80 testing-to-training ratio.

Artificial Neural Network-based Model for Predicting Moisture Content in Rice Using UAV Remote Sensing Data

  • Sarkar, Tapash Kumar;Ryu, Chan-Seok;Kang, Jeong-Gyun;Kang, Ye-Seong;Jun, Sae-Rom;Jang, Si-Hyeong;Park, Jun-Woo;Song, Hye-Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.611-624
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    • 2018
  • The percentage of moisture content in rice before harvest is crucial to reduce the economic loss in terms of yield, quality and drying cost. This paper discusses the application of artificial neural network (ANN) in developing a reliable prediction model using the low altitude fixed-wing unmanned air vehicle (UAV) based reflectance value of green, red, and NIR and statistical moisture content data. A comparison between the actual statistical data and the predicted data was performed to evaluate the performance of the model. The correlation coefficient (R) is 0.862 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 0.914% indicate a very good accuracy of the model to predict the moisture content in rice before harvest. The model predicted values are matched well with the measured values($R^2=0.743$, and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency = 0.730). The model results are very promising and show the reliable potential to predict moisture content with the error of prediction less than 7%. This model might be potentially helpful for the rice production system in the field of precision agriculture (PA).

A study on estimation of lowflow indices in ungauged basin using multiple regression (다중회귀분석을 이용한 미계측 유역의 갈수지수 산정에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Ga Kyun;Jeung, Se Jin;Kim, Byung Sik;Chae, Soo Kwon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1193-1201
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to develop a regression model that estimates a low-flow index that can be applied to ungauged basins. A total of 30 midsized basins in South Korea use long-term runoff data provided by the National Integrated Water Management System (NIWMS) to calculate average low-flow, average minimum streamflow, and low-flow index duration and frequency. This information is used in the correlation analysis with 18 basin factors and 3 climate change factors to identify the basin area, average basin altitude, average basin slope, water system density, runoff curve number, annual evapotranspiration, and annual precipitation in the low-flow index regression model. This study evaluates the model's accuracy by using the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) for 10 ungauged, verified basins and compares them with the previous model's low-flow calculations to determine the effectiveness of the newly developed model. Comparative analysis indicates that the new regression model produces average low-flow, attributed to the consideration of varied basin and hydrologic factors during the new model's development.