• 분석과 대안
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.27-59
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• 2023

이 연구는 현재 논란이 되고 있는 '신냉전'에 대해 비판적으로 비교하기 위한 시론의 역할을 하는 것을 목적으로 한다. '신냉전' 담론이 미디어와 학계에 주요 이슈로 등장하여 현실 정치적 힘으로 작용하게 된 것은 세 번의 계기를 통해서였다. 중국의 '일대일로' 프로젝트가 출범하고 러시아의 크림병합으로 '우크라이나 위기'가 발생하면서 '신냉전' 담론이 형성되기 시작하여, 트럼프정부의 미중 무역분쟁을 통해 '신냉전' 관련 논쟁이 본격적으로 전면화 된 데 이어, 바이든 정부의 '민주주의 대 권위주의'의 프레임과 푸틴의 우크라이나 침공으로 인해 '신냉전' 논쟁은 현재 심화되고 있다. 현재 논란이 되고 있는 '신냉전'이 역사적으로 공인된 '20세기의 냉전(Cold War)과 동일하거나 연속선상에 있다는 합의'가 부재하다. '신냉전'이라는 용어는 이론적인 검증과 체계화는 물론이고 아직 분석적 개념의 지위를 획득하지 못한 시사적인 용어에 가깝고, 관련 논쟁 또한 주장이나 담론discourse 수준에 머물고 있다. '신냉전' 관련 담론들을 지지 및 동의하는 주장과 이에 대한 비판적 입장을 비교하여, 과거의 냉전과 어떠한 유사성과 차별성이 있는지 분석할 것이다. 이러한 비교 분석을 통해 현재 진행되는 '신냉전' 담론이 오늘날 세계질서의 전환적 현상을 설명하는 데 적실성 있는 개념이 아니라는 것을 논증하고자 한다.

• Journal of Public Diplomacy
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• 제3권2호
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• pp.53-68
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• 2023

최근 국제정세는 신냉전으로 불릴 만큼 극심한 진영 간 대립의 양상을 보여주고 있다. 진영을 구분하는 요소로 가치와 규범이 강조되고 있지만 실제 갈등은 단순하게 이념과 가치에만 기반을 두기 보다는 훨씬 복잡하고 다층적인 양상을 나타내고 있다. 이러한 상황 속에서 우리 정부는 제2차 공공외교 기본계획(2023~2027)을 수립했다. 본 연구는 제1차 공공외교 기본계획과 제2차 기본계획을 비교하고 있으며, 이를 통해 바람직한 한국 공공외교의 방향에 대해 논의하고 있다. 제2차 기본계획은 지식공공외교와 정책공공외교 측면에서 더욱 확장된 내용을 포함하고 있으며, 공공외교의 수단으로서 디지털 공공외교를 강조하는 등 발전적인 내용들을 담고 있지만, 정책공공외교의 일부인 가치와 규범에 대해 명확한 내용을 제시하지 못하고 있다. 가치와 규범은 최근 국제정치의 주요 요인이지만 우리에게 중요한 국가들을 배제할 수도 있기 때문에, 글로벌 보편 가치를 설정하고 이를 추구하는 것이 정책공공외교의 주요 목표가 되어야 한다. 대립하고 갈등하는 국제정세 속에서 우리의 공공외교가 바람직한 방향으로 추진될 수 있도록 더욱 정교하고 세심한 계획 수립이 필요하다.

• Strategy21
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• 통권36호
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• pp.5-32
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• 2015

Geopolitics or Political Geography is an essential academic field that should be studied carefully for a more comprehensive analysis of international security relations. However, because of its tarnished image as an ideology that supported the NAZI German expansion and aggression, geopolitics has not been regarded as a pure academic field and was rejected and expelled from the academic communities starting from the Cold War years in 1945. During the Cold War, ideology, rather than geography, was considered more important in conducting and analyzing international relations. However, after the end of the Cold War and with the beginning of a new era in which territorial and religious confrontations are taking place among nations - including sub national tribal political organizations such as the Al Quaeda and other terrorist organizations - geopolitical analysis again is in vogue among the scholars and analysts on international security affairs. Most of the conflicts in international relations that is occurring now in the post-Cold War years can be explained more effectively with geopolitical concepts. The post - Cold War international relations among East Asian countries are especially better explained with geopolitical concepts. Unlike Europe, where peaceful development took place after the Cold War, China, Japan, Korea, the United States, Taiwan and Vietnam are feeling more insecure in the post-Cold War years. Most of the East Asian nations' economies have burgeoned during the Cold War years under the protection of the international security structure provided by the two superpowers. However, after the Cold War years, the international security structure has not been stable in East Asia and thus most of the East Asian nations began to build up stronger military forces of their own. Because most of the East Asian nations' national security and economy depend on the oceans, these nations desire to obtain more powerful navies and try to occupy islands, islets, or even rocks that may seem like a strategic asset for their economy and security. In this regard, the western Pacific Ocean is becoming a place of confrontation among the East Asian nations. As Robert Kaplan, an eminent international analyst, mentioned, East Asia is a Seascape while Europe is a Landscape. The possibility of international conflict on the waters of East Asia is higher than in any other period in East Asia's international history.

• 수완나부미
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.79-111
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• 2016

Malaya attained independence on August 31, 1957 from Britain. However this new nation faced a communist insurgency known today as the "Malayan Emergency" (1948-1960). Then in 1961, Tunku announced a wider federation of "Malaysia", viz. Malaya, British Crown Colonies of Singapore, Sarawak and North Borneo, and the protectorate of Brunei. Countering communism was a principal motive for "Malaysia". Sarawak's leftist elements were rejected with an armed opposition. Malaysia was formed excluding Brunei. Amidst its birth pangs, Malaysia faced hostile neighbors Indonesia and the Philippines; the former objected by way of Konfrontasi (1963-1967) while the latter laid claim to Sabah (formerly North Borneo). Malaya/ Malaysia was borne in the midst of the Cold War (1947-1991), a bipolar world between the US and the USSR. Malaya/Malaysia is utilized as a case of analysis and evaluation in the context of the twin trends of continuities and transformations in tracing the historical developments from the 1950's to the 1990's. The risks, motives, and challenges that prompted the shift in foreign relations reveal as much of the personality of the political leadership, the prevailing situations, and conditions from within and circumstances from without.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.82-108
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• 2023

As tension escalates between the US and China, scenarios for maintaining peace in Northeast Asia imply that secondary powers will perceive increasing incentives to reappraise their respective international roles. This analysis proposes that an analysis of France's Cold War role in Europe and the world under President Charles de Gaulle provides insights into conflict management in an increasingly multipolar international political environment. Their respective interests in preventing a so-called new Cold War emerging between the US and China include avoiding its excessive economic costs, if only because China is a massive trade partner. This study engages in theoretical framework-informed process tracing of de Gaulle's role. It explicates the assumptions that functionally underpinned de Gaulle's policy of soft balancing between the US and China. The analysis explores de Gaulle's contribution to the decay of the Cold War. It illuminates de Gaulle's contribution to a regional international environment that made West German Chancellor Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik strategy more feasible politically. This study applies these findings in the formulation of strategy recommendations focusing on Japan. Valid inferences regarding the predominant motivations driving American and Chinese international interaction are necessary for this task. To the extent to which the US and China have entered into a conflict spiral, Japan's hedging towards Washington is further incentivized. Tokyo would necessarily need to convince the Chinese that Japan is no longer Washington's unsinkable aircraft carrier off its coast. Tokyo, like de Gaulle's France, would maintain close relations with Washington, but it would need to project to its interlocutors its commitment to its own strategic autonomy. Tokyo's emphasis on closer relations with liberal democratic Indo-Pacific actors would potentially fit well with a commitment to strategic autonomy to defend the global liberal order.

• 해양안보
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• 제2권1호
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• pp.151-184
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• 2021

21세기 최대의 화두 중 하나는 기후이변으로 인한 지구 온난화 현상이다. 지구온난화는 글로벌 생태계를 위협하는 재앙인 동시에, 북극항로의 상용화를 통한 물류비용 절감이나 광물자원 개발 등을 가능케 하는 기회이기도 하다. 지구의 생태·환경 위협과 새로운 경제적 기회가 병존하는 '북극의 역설'이 글로벌 국제환경에 심대한 영향을 미치게 될 것임을 예고한다. 빙하가 사라지면서, 수에즈-파나마 운하를 통과하지 않고 북극해를 통과하는 루트가 '제3의 항로'로 떠올랐다. 이는 기존 항로의 거리를 30% 정도 줄일 수 있다. 아울러 지구 온난화는 지정학적 패러다임의 변화를 몰고왔다. 북극 얼음이 녹아내리기 시작하면서 북극이 '상수'가 아닌 21세기 최대의 지정학적 '변수'로 떠오를 조짐이다. 이에 따라 탈냉전 시대에 들어 '평화와 협력의 공간'으로 인식되던 북극이 군사·안보측면이 강조되는 새로운 전략환경에 직면하고 있다. 냉전종결 이후 한동안 환경보호 등을 중심으로 협력적 모습을 보이던 북극이 다시금 '냉전 2.0'을 예고하며, 강대국들 간의 새로운 경쟁과 대결의 무대로 변모하고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 북극해의 전략적 가치를 지정학적 및 지경학적 관점에서 평가하고, 북극 일대에서 벌어지는 신냉전 다이내믹을 분석함으로써, 이를 바탕으로 우리에게 주는 전략적 함의를 도출해 보는 것이다.

• Journal of Contemporary Eastern Asia
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.1-8
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• 2006

Since its defeat in the Second World War, Japan has been fostering good ties with Western countries, especially the United States. However, some East Asian leaders emboldened by their countries' economic success have proclaimed that the future belongs to Asia and have put forward the "Asian values" argument. It is interesting to note that some elements of the "Asian values" argument resemble ultranationalist discourse that was dominant in Japan before the war. The Japanese Government had a great opportunity to reappraise its role in international politics and take stock of its economic and diplomatic relations with East Asian countries after the end of the Cold War. To meet future challenges, Japan should fully overcome anti-Western sentiment and participate in establishing a truly democratic East Asian regionalism based on the "universal values" of human rights, democracy and freedom. This may prove to be one of the biggest challenges for Japan's East Asia policy in the new century.

• 분석과 대안
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• 제7권3호
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• pp.1-26
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• 2023

This article will analyze and forecast important variables and dynamics in global power politics after the war in Ukraine. It tries to use several perspectives to analyze international relations, particularly liberal internationalism and structural realism. In short, core variables are as follows; First, how is the US-led liberal international order and globalization being adjusted? Second, how will the U.S.-China strategic competition, which is the biggest and structural variable, cause changes in the international order in the future? The third variable, how stable are Sino-Russia relations in the context of a structuring U.S.-China-Russia strategic new triangle? Fourth, to what extent will third middle hedging states outside the U.S. and China be able to exercise strategic autonomy in the face of multipolarization? To summarize, the first of these four variables is the largest basic variable at the global political and economic level in terms of its impact on the international community, and it has been led by the United States. The second variable, in terms of actors, seems to be the most influential structural variable in global competition, and the US-China strategic competition is likely to be a long game. Thus the world will not be able to escape the influence of the competition between the two global powers. For South Korea, this second variable is probably the biggest external variable and dilemma. The third variable, the stability of Sino-Russia relations, determines balance of global power in the 21st century. The U.S.-China-Russia strategic new triangle, as seen in the current war in Ukraine, will operate as the greatest power variable in not only global power competition but also changes in the international order. Just as the U.S. is eager for a Sino-Russia fragmentation strategy, such as a Tito-style wedge policy to manage balance of power in the early years of the Cold War, it needs a reverse Kissinger strategy to reset the U.S.-Russia relationship, in order to push for a Sino-Russia splitting in the 21st century. But with the war in Ukraine, it seems that this fragmentation strategy has already been broken. In the context of Northeast Asia, whether or not the stability of Sino-Russia relations depends not only on the United States, but also on the Korean Peninsula. Finally, the fourth variable is a dependent variable that emerged as a result of the interaction of the above three variables, but simultaneously it remains to be seen that this variable is likely to act as the most dynamic and independent variable that can promote multilateralism, multipolarization, and pan-regionalism of the global international community in the future. Taking into account these four variables together, we can make an outlook on the change in the international order.

• 수완나부미
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.7-47
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• 2020

This article is a sub-section of a comparative analysis of depictions of violence in Jakarta's Museum of the Indonesian Communist Party's Treachery, Ho Chi Minh City's War Remnants Museum, and Phnom Penh's Tuol Sleng Genocide Museum. In comparing these public history sites, I analyze how memories of mass violence were central to state formation in both Suharto's anti-Communist New Order (1966-1998), the Socialist Republic of Vietnam (1976-present), and Cambodia since the collapse of Democratic Kampuchea (1979-present). While this comparison points out specific distinctions about the role of the military, the nature of revolution, and conceptions of gender, it argues for a central similarity in the use of a mythology of victimization in building these post-conflict nation-states. This article focuses on my gendered analysis of the use of images of women and children in each museum. Depending on context and political purpose, these museums cast women as tragic victim, revolutionary heroine, or threat to the social order. My analysis of gender places stereotypical images of violence against women (the trope of women and children as the ultimate victims) in conversation with dark fantasies of women as perpetrators of savage violence and heroic images of women liberated by participation in violence.

• 수완나부미
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.157-180
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• 2018

Area studies, including Asian and Southeast Asian studies, in the post-Cold War era have been facing an epochal challenge that is rooted in two conditions: on the one hand, the end of the Cold War and the fading geopolitical rationale, and on the other, the emergence of the technology-driven transformation of the global economy and society. The consequences thus far are paradoxical: 1) While the technology-led transformation needs a workforce with critical and innovative abilities, higher education becomes more hyper-utilitarian; 2) While the transformation instigates increasing diversity of identities in global cultures, many countries thrive for STEM education at the expense of learning languages and cultures, including area studies which are essential for diversity. Southeast Asian studies programs need to change in response to these new conditions. These changing conditions and paradoxes, nevertheless, take different forms and degrees in the American, European and Asian academies, thanks to their different histories of higher education. The prospects for Southeast Asian Studies in these various academies are likely to be different too.