Maritime Security (해양안보)

Korea Institute for Maritime Strategy (한국해양전략연구소)
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The Return of Great Power Competition to the Arctic

북극해 일대에서 본격화되기 시작한 강대국 경쟁

  • Received : 2021.03.24
  • Accepted : 2021.06.07
  • Published : 2021.06.30
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Abstract

Global warming due to climate change is one of the biggest challenges in the 21st century. Global warming is not only a disaster that threatens the global ecosystem but also an opportunity to reduce logistics costs and develop mineral resources by commercializing Arctic routes. The Arctic paradox, in which ecological and environmental threats and new economic opportunities coexist, is expected to have a profound impact on the global environment. As the glaciers disappear, routes through the Arctic Ocean without passing through the Suez and Panama Canals emerged as the 'third route.' This can reduce the distance of existing routes by 30%. Global warming has also brought about changes in the geopolitical paradigm. As Arctic ice begins to melt, the Arctic is no longer a 'constant' but is emerging as the largest geopolitical 'variable' in the 21st century. Accordingly, the Arctic, which was recognized as a 'space of peace and cooperation' in the post-Cold War era, is now facing a new strategic environment in which military and security aspects are emphasized. After the Cold War, the Arctic used to be a place for cooperation centered on environmental protection, but it is once again changing into a stage of competition and confrontation between superpowers, heralding 'Cold War 2.0.' The purpose of this study is to evaluate the strategic value of the Arctic Ocean from geopolitical and geoeconomic perspectives and derive strategic implications by analyzing the dynamics of the New Cold War taking place in the Arctic region.

21세기 최대의 화두 중 하나는 기후이변으로 인한 지구 온난화 현상이다. 지구온난화는 글로벌 생태계를 위협하는 재앙인 동시에, 북극항로의 상용화를 통한 물류비용 절감이나 광물자원 개발 등을 가능케 하는 기회이기도 하다. 지구의 생태·환경 위협과 새로운 경제적 기회가 병존하는 '북극의 역설'이 글로벌 국제환경에 심대한 영향을 미치게 될 것임을 예고한다. 빙하가 사라지면서, 수에즈-파나마 운하를 통과하지 않고 북극해를 통과하는 루트가 '제3의 항로'로 떠올랐다. 이는 기존 항로의 거리를 30% 정도 줄일 수 있다. 아울러 지구 온난화는 지정학적 패러다임의 변화를 몰고왔다. 북극 얼음이 녹아내리기 시작하면서 북극이 '상수'가 아닌 21세기 최대의 지정학적 '변수'로 떠오를 조짐이다. 이에 따라 탈냉전 시대에 들어 '평화와 협력의 공간'으로 인식되던 북극이 군사·안보측면이 강조되는 새로운 전략환경에 직면하고 있다. 냉전종결 이후 한동안 환경보호 등을 중심으로 협력적 모습을 보이던 북극이 다시금 '냉전 2.0'을 예고하며, 강대국들 간의 새로운 경쟁과 대결의 무대로 변모하고 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 북극해의 전략적 가치를 지정학적 및 지경학적 관점에서 평가하고, 북극 일대에서 벌어지는 신냉전 다이내믹을 분석함으로써, 이를 바탕으로 우리에게 주는 전략적 함의를 도출해 보는 것이다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2021년도 한국해양전략연구소의 연구용역 사업의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임.(NO.2021-01)

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