• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.12 no.9
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• pp.4548-4559
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• 2018

Conditional differential attack against NFSR-based cryptosystems proposed by Knellwolf et al. in Asiacrypt 2010 has been widely used for analyzing round-reduced Grain v1. In this paper, we present improved conditional differential attacks on Grain v1 based on a factorization simplification method, which makes it possible to obtain the expressions of internal states in more rounds and analyze the expressions more precisely. Following a condition-imposing strategy that saves more IV bits, Sarkar's distinguishing attack on Grain v1 of 106 rounds is improved to a key recovery attack. Moreover, we show new distinguishing attack and key recovery attack on Grain v1 of 107 rounds with lower complexity O($2^{34}$) and appreciable theoretical success probability 93.7%. Most importantly, our attacks can practically recover key expressions with higher success probability than theoretical results.

• Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.349-367
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• 2021

In this study, 85 studies on probability education from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed by publishing year, journals, research subjects, and research topics. Especially, fundamental probabilistic ideas presented by Batanero et al.(2016) were applied to examine which topics were dominant in domestic probability education research. As a result, it was found that there has been a few research in probability education in Korea during the past 20 years, and the number of human subject studies was slightly more than the number of non-human subject studies. In addition, the analysis of research topics according to the fundamental probabilistic ideas showed that two topics, conditional probability and independence and combinatorial enumeration and counting, were dominant in domestic probability education research. However, while both conditional probability and independence and combinatorial enumeration and counting are introduced to young children using intuitive manners in international probability education research, subjects related to these topics were primarily high school students and pre and in-service teachers. Based on the results of this study, the implications for the goal and the direction of future probability education research were discussed.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.117-128
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• 2012

In Baccarat, the gambler can bet on either the Player or Banker. The only gambler's strategy is to consider the previous winning history on the round. The winning probabilities of Player or Banker are calculated by simulation using R. Conditional winning probabilities given that Player or Banker has won i consecutive times are also calculated by simulation. Conditional winning probability implies that the sequence of Baccarat results is an almost independent sequence of events. It has been shown that the total amount of returns in each round of games is almost identical to a random walk. Thus, one possible strategy is to catch the trend(the Player or the Banker) of the random walk and to bet on that side of the trend.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.407-416
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• 1997

Suppose that { $X_{i}$ } is a stationary AR(1) process and { $Y_{j}$ } is an ARX process with { $X_{i}$ } as exogeneous variables. Let $Y_{j}$ $^{*}$ be the stochastic process which is the sum of $Y_{j}$ and a nonstochastic trend. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the conditional probability that $Y_{{n+1}}$$^{*}$ is bigger than $X_{{n+1}}$, given $X_{1}$, $Y_{1}$$^{*}$,..., $X_{n}$ , $Y_{n}$ $^{*}$. As an estimator for the tolerance probability, an Mann-Whitney statistic based on least squares residuars is suggested. It is shown that the deviations between the estimator and true probability are stochatically bounded with $n^{{-1}$2}/ order. The result may be applied to the stress-strength reliability theory when the stress and strength variables violate the classical iid assumption.umption.n.

• Korean Journal of Logic
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.337-358
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• 2015

Vann Mcgee produced "counterexamples" to Modus Ponens in "A Counterexample to Modus Ponens". Discussions about the examples tended to focus on a probabilistic reading of conditional statements. This article attempts to establish both (1) Modus Ponens is a deductively valid rule of inference, and (2) the counterexample-like appearance of Mcgee's example can be (and should be) explained without making a reference to the notion of conditional probability. The reason why his examples seem to counter Modus Ponens is found rather within the ambiguity a conditional statement exhibits. That is, Mcgee's examples are cases of equivocation on the conditional statements involved.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.157-168
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• 2022

A moment-independent importance measure analysis approach was introduced to quantify the effects of structural uncertainty parameters on probabilistic seismic demands of simply supported girder bridges. Based on the probability distributions of main uncertainty parameters in bridges, conditional and unconditional bridge samples were constructed with Monte-Carlo sampling and analyzed in the OpenSees platform with a series of real seismic ground motion records. Conditional and unconditional probability density functions were developed using kernel density estimation with the results of nonlinear time history analysis of the bridge samples. Moment-independent importance measures of these uncertainty parameters were derived by numerical integrations with the conditional and unconditional probability density functions, and the uncertainty parameters were ranked in descending order of their importance. Different from Tornado diagram approach, the impacts of uncertainty parameters on the whole probability distributions of bridge seismic demands and the interactions of uncertainty parameters were considered simultaneously in the importance measure analysis approach. Results show that the interaction of uncertainty parameters had significant impacts on the seismic demand of components, and in some cases, it changed the most significant parameters for piers, bearings and abutments.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.301-309
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• 2019

A methodology to assess seismic fragility of a nuclear power plant (NPP) using a conditional mean spectrum is proposed as an alternative to using a uniform hazard response spectrum. Rather than the single-scenario conditional mean spectrum, which is the conventional conditional mean spectrum based on a single scenario, a multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is proposed for the case in which no single scenario is dominant. The multi-scenario conditional mean spectrum is defined as the weighted average of different conditional mean spectra, each one of which corresponds to an individual scenario. The weighting factors for scenarios are obtained from a deaggregation of seismic hazards. As a validation example, a seismic fragility assessment of an NPP containment structure is performed using a uniform hazard response spectrum and different single-scenario conditional mean spectra and multi-scenario conditional mean spectra. In the example, the number of scenarios primarily influences the median capacity of the evaluated structure. Meanwhile, the control frequency, a key parameter of a conditional mean spectrum, plays an important role in reducing logarithmic standard deviation of the corresponding fragility curves and corresponding high confidence of low probability of failure (HCLPF) capacity.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.709-717
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• 2010

The task of association rule mining is to find certain association relationships among a set of data items in a database. There are three primary measures for association rule, support and confidence and lift. In this paper we developed a association rule ranking function using conditional probability increment ratio. We compared our function with several association rule ranking functions by some numerical examples. As the result, we knew that our decision function was better than the existing functions. The reasons were that the proposed function of the reference value is not affected by a particular association threshold, and our function had a value between -1 and 1 regardless of the range for three association thresholds. And we knew that the ranking function using conditional probability increment ratio was very well reflected in the difference between association rule measures and the minimum association rule thresholds, respectively.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.57 no.1
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• pp.21-43
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• 2016

A conditional probability based approach known as Particle Filter Method (PFM) is a powerful tool for system parameter identification. In this paper, PFM has been applied to identify the vehicle parameters based on response statistics of the bridge. The flexibility of vehicle model has been considered in the formulation of bridge-vehicle interaction dynamics. The random unevenness of bridge has been idealized as non homogeneous random process in space. The simulated response has been contaminated with artificial noise to reflect the field condition. The performance of the identification system has been examined for various measurement location, vehicle velocity, bridge surface roughness factor, noise level and assumption of prior probability density. Identified vehicle parameters are found reasonably accurate and reconstructed interactive force time history with identified parameters closely matches with the simulated results. The study also reveals that crude assumption of prior probability density function does not end up with an incorrect estimate of parameters except requiring longer time for the iterative process to converge.

• Molecules and Cells
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• v.45 no.7
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• pp.444-453
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• 2022

Multivalent macromolecular interactions underlie dynamic regulation of diverse biological processes in ever-changing cellular states. These interactions often involve binding of multiple proteins to a linear lattice including intrinsically disordered proteins and the chromosomal DNA with many repeating recognition motifs. Quantitative understanding of such multivalent interactions on a linear lattice is crucial for exploring their unique regulatory potentials in the cellular processes. In this review, the distinctive molecular features of the linear lattice system are first discussed with a particular focus on the overlapping nature of potential protein binding sites within a lattice. Then, we introduce two general quantitative frameworks, combinatorial and conditional probability models, dealing with the overlap problem and relating the binding parameters to the experimentally measurable properties of the linear lattice-protein interactions. To this end, we present two specific examples where the quantitative models have been applied and further extended to provide biological insights into specific cellular processes. In the first case, the conditional probability model was extended to highlight the significant impact of nonspecific binding of transcription factors to the chromosomal DNA on gene-specific transcriptional activities. The second case presents the recently developed combinatorial models to unravel the complex organization of target protein binding sites within an intrinsically disordered region (IDR) of a nucleoporin. In particular, these models have suggested a unique function of IDRs as a molecular switch coupling distinct cellular processes. The quantitative models reviewed here are envisioned to further advance for dissection and functional studies of more complex systems including phase-separated biomolecular condensates.