• Title/Summary/Keyword: a Decision-Making Model

Search Result 2,240, Processing Time 0.035 seconds

Statistical Analysis of Extreme Values of Financial Ratios (재무비율의 극단치에 대한 통계적 분석)

  • Joo, Jihwan
    • Knowledge Management Research
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.247-268
    • /
    • 2021
  • Investors mainly use PER and PBR among financial ratios for valuation and investment decision-making. I conduct an analysis of two basic financial ratios from a statistical perspective. Financial ratios contain key accounting numbers which reflect firm fundamentals and are useful for valuation or risk analysis such as enterprise credit evaluation and default prediction. The distribution of financial data tends to be extremely heavy-tailed, and PER and PBR show exceedingly high level of kurtosis and their extreme cases often contain significant information on financial risk. In this respect, Extreme Value Theory is required to fit its right tail more precisely. I introduce not only GPD but exGPD. GPD is conventionally preferred model in Extreme Value Theory and exGPD is log-transformed distribution of GPD. exGPD has recently proposed as an alternative of GPD(Lee and Kim, 2019). First, I conduct a simulation for comparing performances of the two distributions using the goodness of fit measures and the estimation of 90-99% percentiles. I also conduct an empirical analysis of Information Technology firms in Korea. Finally, exGPD shows better performance especially for PBR, suggesting that exGPD could be an alternative for GPD for the analysis of financial ratios.

Prediction of Salinity of Nakdong River Estuary Using Deep Learning Algorithm (LSTM) for Time Series Analysis (시계열 분석 딥러닝 알고리즘을 적용한 낙동강 하굿둑 염분 예측)

  • Woo, Joung Woon;Kim, Yeon Joong;Yoon, Jong Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
    • /
    • v.34 no.4
    • /
    • pp.128-134
    • /
    • 2022
  • Nakdong river estuary is being operated with the goal of expanding the period of seawater inflow from this year to 2022 every month and creating a brackish water area within 15 km of the upstream of the river bank. In this study, the deep learning algorithm Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) was applied to predict the salinity of the Nakdong Bridge (about 5 km upstream of the river bank) for the purpose of rapid decision making for the target brackish water zone and prevention of salt water damage. Input data were constructed to reflect the temporal and spatial characteristics of the Nakdong River estuary, such as the amount of discharge from Changnyeong and Hamanbo, and an optimal model was constructed in consideration of the hydraulic characteristics of the Nakdong River Estuary by changing the degree according to the sequence length. For prediction accuracy, statistical analysis was performed using the coefficient of determination (R-squred) and RMSE (root mean square error). When the sequence length was 12, the R-squred 0.997 and RMSE 0.122 were the highest, and the prior prediction time showed a high degree of R-squred 0.93 or more until the 12-hour interval.

The Implications of Amore-Pacific's New Office Landscaping Through the Ground Theory (근거이론을 통해 본 아모레퍼시픽 신사옥 조경의 함의)

  • Park, Seong-uk;Hong, Youn-Soon;Kim, Woo-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
    • /
    • v.50 no.6
    • /
    • pp.84-95
    • /
    • 2022
  • The landscaping of Amore-Pacific's new building has received various awards since its construction. This study attempted to identify the mechanisms of planning, design, and construction of this project through the ground theory. The results of the study are summarized as follows. The client's place attachment of the sites, which was the company's parent, was the driving force for an international design competiton in which architecture and landscaping were integrated. After that, in the detailed design stage for the actual implementation of the contest-winning plan, competent local designers and contractors were selected, and a consultative body was operated to engage in various opinions and promote rational decision-making. As for consultative body's operation method, simulation, physical model production, and detailed drawings were created after sharing opinions, and landscape design supervision played a major role. Establishing consistency in design and construction through integrated planning and landscape design supervision is required to cultivate craftsmanship and foster landscape coordinators in today's industrialized practice. The accumulation of related follow-up studies and supplementation of the system is anticipated.

A Survey of the Current Information Activities in the Advanced Developing Countries (중진국의 정보유통체제 연구)

  • Choi Sung-jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
    • /
    • v.7
    • /
    • pp.89-195
    • /
    • 1980
  • The advanced developing countries including Korea are assumed to have reached a developmental stage which necessitates them to formulate and implement a plan for a national information network. Most of the governments in the advanced developing countries are well aware of the necessity for such a plan and some of them have actually commenced their studies on the feasibility of a national network of their own hoping to achieve maximum utility of their limited information resources. Two urgent problems facing planners in the design of a national information network are identified. One is lack of an optimum organisational model to enable them to meet their own situations, and the other is lack of a guideline to help designers evaluate the alternative structures and models when they are available. In resolving these two problems, network planners in the advanced developing countries would benefit from the achievement of the objectives of the present study. The major objective is to elicit and describe common information needs, desires and value of the people using information, and other common factors which are responsible for the present information services in the advanced developing countries and which have implications for the basic structure of the national information network. The value of this study is to aid administrators in Korea and those in the other advanced developing countries who are responsible for making national policies and who are now beginning to recognise the need for information services with the planning of economic and social development so as to enable all the groups in the community to have access to the information which are essential for decision making, research work, studies and even for recreational reading. This recognition will hopefully give them a rational basis for formulating right policies on information services. The methodology utlised for collecting the required data in this study falls under the category of observation and largely consists of the two techniques: literature review and postal questionnaire. Background information on the individual advanced developing: countries was gathered from monographic and periodical literature. and country reports presented at the various international conferences were analysed for other relevant data. For most of the data needed for the present study, a questionnaire on 'Library and Information Services as They Are Available in the Selected Countries' was formulated. This questionnaire was designed to be completed without help, by an expert who was well informed of the library and information services in his or her country. The questionnaire was intended to look in details at what information services in the advanced developing countries were doing-whom they were serving, in what way, and how well and establish to what extent they were meeting the nation's information requirements. It was also intended to ascertain the respondents' ideas on possible future developments in information provision in their countries, that is, in the advanced devanced developing countries. The questionnaire was posted to a total of 63 natinal librarians, directors of national information centres and those of other major libraries or information centres in 21 selected countries. Complete usable responses were received from 34 persons in 14 countries. In order to identify common characteristics of the information needs and desires in the advanced developing countries and the present situation of the information services to meet them, and the requirements and constraints peculiar to those countries which bought to be considered in the design of a national information network for advanced developing countries, an individual report on the current status of information activities for each of the fourteen countries chosen for this study, was presented. The procedure used was to arrange the data acquired in the questionnaire responses and other sources, in the form of fifteen country reports to be summarised by cross-section characteristics later.

  • PDF

A Study on the Foreign Direct Investment of Korean Textile Enterprises (한국섬유기업의 해외직접투자에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kil-Sang
    • Korean Business Review
    • /
    • v.12
    • /
    • pp.209-237
    • /
    • 1999
  • With the increasing speed of internationalization of corporations under WTO system foreign direct investment is considered as the important means of international cooperation as well as avoiding trade barrier. From this point of view the study on foreign direct investment of Korean corporations is of great importance. Many studies till now, however, are concerned with the macroscopic analysis of foreign direct investment of Korean corporations, not with the establishment of strategy appropriate to the environment of host country and the investment performance. In order to meet the problems mentioned above this thesis aims at accomplishing the following three tasks. (1) synthetic assessment of existing theories of foreign direct investment. (2) systematic adjustment of factors of environment in the foreign direct investment activities. (3) analysis of above factors in the foreign direct investment of Korean textile industry and proper proposal of strategic model for the individual corporation. The results of analysis according to the aim of the study are as follows: (1) To lead foreign direct investment successfully, variable and effective information-presentation should be offered with priority. (2) The investment strategy through regional diversification is required. (3) The localization of decision making has to be attempted assertively. (4) The global network system is needed for more recommendable foreign direct investment. (5) More aggressive and outgoing attitude like developing into the local market and obtaining the high-technology is desperately needed.

  • PDF

Management of Construction Fields Information Using Low Altitude Close-range Aerial Images (저고도 근접 항공영상을 이용한 현장정보관리)

  • Cho, Young Sun;Lim, No Yeol;Joung, Woo Su;Jung, Sung Heuk;Choi, Seok Keun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
    • /
    • v.32 no.5
    • /
    • pp.551-560
    • /
    • 2014
  • Compare to other industrial sites, the civil construction work not only takes longer time but also has made of complicated processes, such as the integrated management, process control, and quality control until the completion. However, it is hard to take control the construction sites, since numerous issues are always emerged. The study purposes on providing the dataset to synthetically manage and monitor the civil construction site, main design, drawings, process, construction cost, and others at real-time by using the low altitude close-range aerial images, based on UAV, and the GPS surveying method for treating the three-dimensional spatial information quickly and accurately. As a result, we could provide the latest information for the quick decision-making following from planning to completion of the construction, and objective site evaluation by the high-resolution three-dimensional spatial information and drawings. Also, the present map, longitudinal map, and cross sectional view are developed to provide various datasets rapidly, such as earthwork volume table, specifications, and transition of ground level.

Research and Policy Directions against Ambient Fine Particles (초미세먼지 문제 해결을 위한 연구 및 정책 방향)

  • Kim, Yong Pyo
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
    • /
    • v.33 no.3
    • /
    • pp.191-204
    • /
    • 2017
  • Concerns on the air pollution problem caused by ambient fine particles have become a big social issue in Korea. Important factors that should be addressed to develop effective and efficient air quality management policy, especially, against fine particles are discussed and research and policy directions to address these factors are suggested. It is suggested that two factors are in high priority; one is scientific understanding of the major formation mechanisms of fine particles and the other is the process of policy decision and implementation. For the scientific understanding, smog chamber measurement, intensive field study, and chemical transport model development that can simulate the characteristics of Northeast Asia are considered to be important. For the policy directions, priority setting of the proposed policies and development and implement of effective communication sytem are considered to be important.

Management Efficiency of the Full-time and Part-time Oak Mushroom Farms using DEA models (DEA 모형을 이용한 주업과 겸업 표고재배 임가의 경영효율성 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Seong-Youn;Jeon, Jun-Heon;Won, Hyun-Kyu;Lee, Jung-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.103 no.4
    • /
    • pp.639-645
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study was conducted to evaluate the management efficiency of oak mushroom farms in Korea using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is one of the non-parametric estimation methods. The data that was analyzed in this study was from the result of 2013 survey entitled "Standard Diagnostic Table for Oak Mushroom Management", which was conducted from March 2012 to October 2012. This survey was based on the inputs and outputs of 20 oak mushroom farms. Specifically, this study analyzed the technical efficiency, pure-technical efficiency and scale efficiency using CCR and BCC model of the DEA methods. Furthermore, this study compares the management efficiency between the full time oak mushroom production farms and part time oak mushroom production farms. Results showed that mean value for the technical efficiency was 0.655 which is considered as inefficient in general. For the pure-technical efficiency and scale efficiency, the mean values were 0.830 and 0.747, respectively which showed that inefficiency in the management was observed in the mushroom farms. Results also showed that there were seven farms with a total efficiency of 1, namely Decision Making Unit(DMU)2, DMU5, DMU6, DMU8, DMU10, DMU15 and DMU20. The management efficiency of DMU7 specifically the inputs for production was analyzed and compared to DMU5 and DMU6 and results showed that the DMU7 had an excessive inoculation and site development cost. Lastly, it was also observed that the full time mushroom production farms were more efficient as compared to the part time mushroom farms because of the lower scale efficiency value or smaller area for mushroom production allotted in the part time farms.

New Flood Hazard Mapping using Runoff Mechanism on Gamcheon Watershed (유출메커니즘을 활용한 감천유역에서의 새로운 홍수위험지도 작성)

  • Kim, Tae Hyung;Han, Kun Yeun;Park, Jun Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.36 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1011-1021
    • /
    • 2016
  • This study performs the potential flood hazard analysis by applying elevation data, soil data and land use data. The susceptibility maps linked to elevation, soil and land use are combined to develop the new types of flood hazard map such as runoff production map and runoff accumulation map. For the development of the runoff production map, land use, soil thickness, permeability, soil erosion and slope data are used as runoff indices. For the runoff accumulation map, elevation, knick point and lowland analysis data are used. To derive an integrated type of flood potential hazard, a TOPSIS (The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) technique, which is widely applied in MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) process, is adopted. The indices applied to the runoff production and accumulation maps are considered as criteria, and the cells of analysis area are considered as alternatives for TOPSIS technique. The model is applied to Gamcheon watershed to evaluate the flood potential hazards. Validation with large scale data shows the good agreements between historical data and runoff accumulation data. The analysis procedure presented in this study will contribute to make preliminary flood hazard map for the public information and for finding flood mitigation measures in the watershed.

Development a Measurement Scale for Analysis on Factors Influencing College Choice of College Freshman's (전문대학 신입생들의 대학선택 영향 요인 분석을 위한 측정도구 개발)

  • Kim, Myung-Eun;Jang, Won-Seok
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.16 no.7
    • /
    • pp.50-62
    • /
    • 2016
  • The aim of this study was to develop scale of test taker to affect on process of selection of college. The study procedures were performed as follow : establish of study model, item generation, verification of content validity, 1st and 2nd pilot test and verification of construct validity and reliability. In order to verification of validity and reliability, 230 freshman were surveyed and the data were analyzed by mean, standard deviation, skewness. kurtosis, Pearson correlation, Verimax factor analysis and Cronbach's ${\alpha}$. As result of factor analysis, the 15 factors(61 items) that explain 68.37% of the total variance were extracted and each factors were classified by attribution as follow : Information collection-mass media(4items), college activity (3items), support and environment(4items), education(5items), Influential person on decision making(3items), education quality(4items), education service(5items), reputation(3items), accessibility(2items), personal circumstances(2items), college's mass media(5items), promotion (4items), on-line(4items), person's PR (3items), College image(10items). Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ of total items was 0.916 and Cronbach's ${\alpha}$ of each factors were showed range between 0.694~0.878. Measurement scale of this study may be utilized to collect basic data be required to establish policy strategy of local college be faced with difficulty of admission recruitment.