• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.453-453
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• 2017

본 연구에서는 최근 기후변화로 인한 집중호우의 발생횟수의 경향을 확률적으로 분석함에 있어 1개월 동안 80 mm/day 이상의 강우사상을 집중호우로 정의하여, 대구 및 부산 강우관측소로부터 수집된 384개월 동안의 집중호우를 분석하였다. 집중호우 월별 발생횟수와 같은 형식의 자료의 확률적 분석은 대개 Poisson 분포 (POI)가 사용되나 자료에 포함된 0자료의 과잉은 확률분포를 왜곡시키는 문제를 발생시킨다. 본 연구에서는 이 문제를 개선하기 위하여 개발된 일반화 Poisson 확률분포 (GPD), 0-과잉 Poisson 확률분포 (ZIP), 0-과잉 일반화 Poisson 확률분포 (ZIGP), Bayesian 0-과잉 일반화 Poisson 확률분포 (Bayesian ZIGP)를 집중호우 자료에 적용하고, 5개 모형의 특성을 비교분석하였으며, Bayesian ZIGP 모형의 구축에 있어서는 정보적 사전분포를 사용함으로써 모형의 정확도를 개선하였다. 분석결과 분석하고자 하는 자료에 0이 과다하게 포함되어 있는 경우 POI 및 GPD 분포는 관측결과와는 다른 결과를 제시하여 적절한 모형으로 고려되지 못함을 알 수 있었다. 5가지 모형 중 정보적 사전분포를 탑재한 Bayesian ZIGP 모형이 가장 관측 자료와 유사한 결과를 도출하였으나 모형의 구축에 수반되는 실용적인 측면을 고려하면 ZIP 모형도 충분히 사용될 수 있는 모형으로 추천되었다.

• Journal of East-West Nursing Research
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.160-169
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• 2022

Purpose: This study was conducted to identify predictors related to aggressive behavior of patients with mental illness admitted to a closed psychiatric ward. Methods: This study adopted a retrospective design which analyzed the hospital medical records of 363 patients with mental illness admitted to the psychiatric closed ward of a university hospital in Seoul, Korea. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS IBM 20.0 and STATA 12.0 SE. ZIP (Zero-Inflated Poisson) and count data analysis were used for the factor influencing the occurrence and frequency of aggressive behavior. Results: The results of ZIP model showed that the factors influencing non-probability of aggressive behavior were anxiety, non-adherence, and frustration. In addition, the factors influencing frequency of aggressive behavior were bipolar disorder and personality disorder trait. Conclusion: We found that bipolar disorder, frustration, and non-adherence are more likely to increase the likelihood of aggressive behavior in patients with mental illness. In particular, patients diagnosed with bipolar disorder were 1.95 times more likely to engage in repetitive aggressive behavior compared to those without a diagnose. However, since the results were different form previous studies, further studies on the traits of anxiety and personality disorders are needed.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.119-129
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• 2014

PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to develop the U-turn accident model at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas. METHODS : In order to analyze the characteristics of the accidents which are associated with U-turn operation at 4-legged signalized intersections in urban areas and develop an U-turn accident model by regression analysis, the tests of overdispersion and zero-inflation are conducted about the dependent variables of number of accidents and EPDO (Equivalent Property Damage Only). RESULTS : As their results, the Poisson model fits best for number of accident and the ZIP (Zero Inflated Poisson) fits best for EPOD, the variables of conflict traffic, width of opposing road, traffic passing speed are adopted as independent variable for both models. The variables of number of bus berths and rate of U-turn signal time at which the U-turn is permitted are adopted as independent variable only for EPDO. CONCLUSIONS : These study results suggest that U-turn would be permitted at the intersection where the width of opposing road is wider than 11.9 meters, the passing vehicle speed is not high and U-turn operation is not hindered by the buses stopping at bus stops.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.37-46
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• 2012

The number of traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers over the age of 65 has surged over the past ten years from 37,000 to 274,000 cases. The proportion of elderly drivers' accidents has jumped 3.1 times from 1.2% to 3.7% out of all traffic accidents, and traffic safety organizations are pursuing diverse measures to address the situation. Above all, connecting safety measures with an in-depth research on behavioral and physical characteristics of elderly drivers will prove vital. This study conducted an empirical research linking the driving characteristics and traffic accidents by elderly drivers based on the Driving Aptitude Test items and traffic accident data, which enabled the measurement of behavioral characteristics of elderly drivers. In developing the Influence Model, we applied the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model and selected an accident prediction model based on the Bayesian Influence in regards to the ZIP regression model and the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model. According to the results of the AAE analysis, the ZIP regression model was more appropriate and it was found that three variables? prediction of velocity, diversion, and cognitive ability? had a relation of influence with traffic accidents caused by elderly drivers.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.107-113
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• 2014

The goal of this study is to develop the accident models of motorcycle at roundabouts. In the pursuing the above, this study gives particular attentions to developing the appropriate models using ZAM. The main results are as follows. First, the evaluation of various developed models by the Vuong statistic and over-dispersion parameter shows that ZINB is analyzed to be optimal among Poisson, NB, ZIP(zero-inflated Poisson) and ZINB regression models. Second, the traffic volume, width of central island and width of approach are evaluated to be important variables to the accidents. Finally, the common variables that affect to the accident are selected to be traffic volume and width of approach. This study might be expected to give some implications to the accident research on the roundabout by motorcycle.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.207-215
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• 2009

Generally, traffic accidents can be influenced by variables driving conditions including geometric, roadside design, and traffic conditions. Under the circumstance, homogeneous roadway segments were firstly identified using typical geometric variables obtained from field data collections in this study. These field data collections were conducted at highways located in several areas having various regional conditions for examples, outside metropolitan city; level and rolling rural areas. Due to many zero cells in crash database, a Zero Inflated Poisson model was used to develop crash prediction model to overestimated results in this study. It was found that EXPO, radius, grade, guardrail, mountainous terrain, crosswalk and bus-stop have statistically significant influence on vehicle to vehicle crashes at rural multi-lane roadway segments.