• Title/Summary/Keyword: Yield estimation model

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Parameter Estimation of the Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution under Three Step-Stress Accelerated Life Test

  • Moon, Gyoung-Ae;Kim, In-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.1375-1386
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    • 2006
  • In life testing, the lifetimes of test units under the usual conditions are so long that life testing at usual conditions is impractical. Testing units are subjected to conditions of high stress to yield informations quickly. In this paper, the inferences of parameters on the three step-stress accelerated life testing are studied. The two-parameter exponential distribution with a failure rate function that a log-quadratic function of stress and the tempered failure rate model are considered. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters and their confidence regions. A numerical example will be given to illustrate the proposed inferential procedures.

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Genetic Analysis of Milk Yield in First-Lactation Holstein Friesian in Ethiopia: A Lactation Average vs Random Regression Test-Day Model Analysis

  • Meseret, S.;Tamir, B.;Gebreyohannes, G.;Lidauer, M.;Negussie, E.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.28 no.9
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    • pp.1226-1234
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    • 2015
  • The development of effective genetic evaluations and selection of sires requires accurate estimates of genetic parameters for all economically important traits in the breeding goal. The main objective of this study was to assess the relative performance of the traditional lactation average model (LAM) against the random regression test-day model (RRM) in the estimation of genetic parameters and prediction of breeding values for Holstein Friesian herds in Ethiopia. The data used consisted of 6,500 test-day (TD) records from 800 first-lactation Holstein Friesian cows that calved between 1997 and 2013. Co-variance components were estimated using the average information restricted maximum likelihood method under single trait animal model. The estimate of heritability for first-lactation milk yield was 0.30 from LAM whilst estimates from the RRM model ranged from 0.17 to 0.29 for the different stages of lactation. Genetic correlations between different TDs in first-lactation Holstein Friesian ranged from 0.37 to 0.99. The observed genetic correlation was less than unity between milk yields at different TDs, which indicated that the assumption of LAM may not be optimal for accurate evaluation of the genetic merit of animals. A close look at estimated breeding values from both models showed that RRM had higher standard deviation compared to LAM indicating that the TD model makes efficient utilization of TD information. Correlations of breeding values between models ranged from 0.90 to 0.96 for different group of sires and cows and marked re-rankings were observed in top sires and cows in moving from the traditional LAM to RRM evaluations.

Spikelet Number Estimation Model Using Nitrogen Nutrition Status and Biomass at Panicle Initiation and Heading Stage of Rice

  • Cui, Ri-Xian;Lee, Lee-Byun-Woo
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.47 no.5
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    • pp.390-394
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    • 2002
  • Spikelet number per unit area(SPN) is a major determinant of rice yield. Nitrogen nutrition status and biomass during reproductive stage determine the SPN. To formulate a model for estimating SPN, the 93 field experiment data collected from widely different regions with different japonica varieties in Korea and Japan were analyzed for the upper boundary lines of SPN responses to nitrogen nutrition index(NNI), shoot dry weight and shoot nitrogen content at panicle initiation and heading stage. The boundary lines of SPN showed asymptotic responses to all the above parameters(X) and were well fitted to the exponential function of $f(X)=alphacdot{1-etacdotexp(gamma;cdot;X)}$. Excluding the constant, from the boundary line equation, the values of the equation range from 0 to 1 and represent the indices of parameters expressing the degree of influence on SPN. In addition to those indices, the index of shoot dry weight increase during reproductive stage was calculated by directly dividing the shoot dry weight increase by the maximum value ($800 extrm{g/m}^{-2}$) of dry weight increase as it showed linear relationship with SPN. Four indices selected by forward stepwise regression at the stay level of 0.05 were those for NNI ($I_{NNI}_P$) at panicle initiation, NNI($I_{NNI}_h$) and shoot dry weight($I_{DW}_h$) at heading stage, and dry weight increase($I_{DW}$) between those two stages. The following model was obtained: SPN=48683ㆍ $I_{DWH}$$^{0.482}$$I_{NNIp}$$^{0.387}$$I_{NNIH}$$^{0.318}$$I_{DW}$ $^{0.35}$). This model accounted for about 89% of the variation of spikelet number. In conclusion this model could be used for estimating the spikelet number of japonica rice with some confidence in widely different regions and thus, integrated into a rice growth model as a component model for spikelet number estimation.n.n.

Efficiency Optimization Control of IPMSM Drive using SPI Controller (SPI 제어기를 이용한 IPMSM 드라이브의 효율최적화 제어)

  • Ko, Jae-Sub;Chung, Dong-Hwa
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.15-25
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    • 2011
  • This proposes an online loss minimization algorithm for series PI(SPI) based interior permanent magnet synchronous motor(IPMSM) drive to yield high efficiency and high dynamic performance over wide speed range. The loss minimization algorithm is developed based on the motor model. In order to minimize the controllable electrical losses of the motor and thereby maximize the operating efficiency, the d-axis armature current is controlled optimally according to the operating speed and load conditions. For vector control purpose, a SPI is used as a speed controller which enables the utilization of the reluctance torque to achieve high dynamic performance as well as to operate the motor over a wide speed range. Also, this paper proposes current control of model reference adaptive fuzzy controller(MFC), and estimation of speed using artificial neural network(ANN) controller. The proposed efficiency optimization control, SPI, MFC, ANN in this paper is applied to IPMSM drive system, the validity of this paper is proved by analyzing response characteristics in variety operating conditions.

Soil Salt Prediction Modeling for the Estimation of Irrigation Water Requirements for Dry Field Crops in Reclaimed Tidelands (간척지 밭작물의 관개용수량 추정을 위한 토양염분예측모형 개발)

  • 손재권;구자웅;최진규
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.96-110
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this study is to develop soil salt prediction model for the estimation of irrigation water requirements for dry field crops in reclaimed tidelands. The simulation model based on water balance equation, salt balance equation, and salt storage equation was developed for daily prediction of sa]t concentration in root zone. The data obtained from field measurement during the growing period of tomato were used to evaluate the applicability of this model. The results of this study are summarized as follows: 1.The optimum irrigation point which maximizes the crop yield in reclaimed tidelands of silt loam soil while maintaining the salt concentration within the tolerance level, ws found to be pF 1.6, and total irrigation requirement after transplanting was 602mm(6.7 mm/day)for tomato. 2.When the irrigation point was pF 1.6, the deviation between predicted and measured salt concentration was less than 4 % at the significance level of 1 7% 3.Since the deviations between predicted and measured values data decrease as the amount of irrigation water increases, the proposed model appear to be more suitable for use in reclaimed tidelands. 4.The amount of irrigation water estimated by the simulation model was 7.2mm/day in the average for cultivating tomato at the optimum irrigation point of pF 1.6.The simulation model proposed in this study can be generalized by applying it to other crops. This, model, also, could be further improved and extended to estimate desalinization effects in reclaimed tidelands by including meteorological effect, capillary phenomenon, and infiltration.

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Runoff Analysis of Urban Watershed using MIKE SWMM Model (MIKE SWMM 모형을 이용한 도시유역 유출분석에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Suk;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Tae-Suk;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.11
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    • pp.907-916
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    • 2005
  • For an urban watershed modeling, the ILLVDAS and SWMM model were the popular rainfall-runoff models using in Korea. However, combined sewerage systems in urban area produce some problems when a flood event happens because of the surcharged precipitation amounts which drain to streams directly. Also, rack of pipe line data and difficulties of modeling yield inappropriate modeling results in urban runoff analysis. In addition, rainfall-runoff models in an urban which using channel routing could be inaccurate and complicated processes. In this paper, the MIKE SWMM model has been applied for a stable urban area runoff analysis. Watershed and pipe line data were established by using past inundated records, DEM data and numerical pipe line data. For a runoff modeling, the Runoff block was adapted to a basin and the Extran block using dynamic equation was applied for sewerage system. After a comparisons against existing models yield that the MIKE SWMM model produce reliable and consistence results without distorting parameter of the model.

Analysis of Crop Survey Protocols to Support Parameter Calibration and Verification for Crop Models of Major Vegetables (주요 채소 작물 대상 작물 모형 모수 추정 및 검증을 지원하기 위한 생육 조사 프로토콜 분석)

  • Kim, Kwang Soo;Kim, Junhwan;Hyun, Shinwoo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.68-78
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    • 2020
  • Crop models have been used to predict vegetable crop yield, which would have a considerable economic impact on consumers as well as producers. A small number of models have been developed to estimate growth and yield of vegetables due to limited availability of growth observation data in high-quality. In this study, we aimed to analyze the protocols designed for collection of the observation data for major vegetable crops including cabbage, radish, garlic, onion and pepper. We also designed the protocols suitable for development and verification of a vegetable crop growth model. In particular, different measures were proposed to improve the existing protocol used by Statistics Korea (KOSTAT) and Rural Development Administration (RDA), which would enhance reliability of parameter estimation for the crop model. It would be advantageous to select sampling sites in areas where reliable weather observation data can be obtained because crop models quantify the response of crop growth to given weather conditions. It is recommended to choose multiple sampling sites where climate conditions would differ. It is crucial to collect time series data for comparison between observed and simulated crop growth and yield. A crop model can be developed to predict actual yield rather than attainable yield using data for crop damage caused by diseases and pests as well as weather anomalies. A bigdata platform where the observation data are to be shared would facilitate the development of crop models for vegetable crops.

Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Milk Production Traits Using a Random Regression Test-day Model in Holstein Cows in Korea

  • Kim, Byeong-Woo;Lee, Deukhwan;Jeon, Jin-Tae;Lee, Jung-Gyu
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.923-930
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to compare three models: two random regression models with and without considering heterogeneity in the residual variances and a lactation model (LM) for evaluating the genetic ability of Holstein cows in Korea. Two datasets were prepared for this study. To apply the test-day random regression model, 94,390 test-day records were prepared from 15,263 cows. The second data set consisted of 14,704 lactation records covering milk production over 305 days. Raw milk yield and composition data were collected from 1998 to 2002 by the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation' dairy cattle improvement center by way of its milk testing program, which is nationally based. The pedigree information for this analysis was collected by the Korean Animal Improvement Association. The random regression models (RRMs) are single-trait animal models that consider each lactation record as an independent trait. Estimates of covariance were assumed to be different ones. In order to consider heterogeneity of residual variance in the analysis, test-days were classified into 29 classes. By considering heterogeneity of residual variance, variation for lactation performance in the early lactation classes was higher than during the middle classes and variance was lower in the late lactation classes than in the other two classes. This may be due to feeding management system and physiological properties of Holstein cows in Korea. Over classes e6 to e26 (covering 61 to 270 DIM), there was little change in residual variance, suggesting that a model with homogeneity of variance be used restricting the data to these days only. Estimates of heritability for milk yield ranged from 0.154 to 0.455, for which the estimates were variable depending on different lactation periods. Most of the heritabilities for milk yield using the RRM were higher than in the lactation model, and the estimate of genetic variance of milk yield was lower in the late lactation period than in the early or middle periods.

Drought Estimation Model Using a Evaporation Pan with 50 mm Depth (50mm 깊이 증발(蒸發) 팬을 이용한 한발 평가 모델 설정)

  • Oh, Yong Taeg;Oh, Dong Shig;Song, Kwan Cheol;Um, Ki Cheol;Shin, Jae Sung;Im, Jung Nam
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.92-106
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    • 1996
  • Imaginary grass field was assumed suitable as the representative one for simplified estimation of local drought, and a moisture balance booking model computing drought was developed with the limited numbers of its determining factors, such as crop coefficient of the field, reservoir capacity of the soil, and the beginning point of drought as defined by soil moisture status. The maximum effective rainfall was assumed to be the same as the available free space of soil reservoir capacity. The model is similar to a definite depth evaporation pan, which stores rainfall as much as the available free space on the water in it and consumes the water by evaporation. When the pan keeps water less than a certain defined level, it is droughty. The model simulates soil moisture deficit on the assumed grass field for the drought estimation. The model can assess the water requirement, drought intensity, and the index of yield decrement due to drought. The influencing intensity indices of the selected factors were 100, 21, and 16 respectively for crop coefficient, reservoir capacity, and drought beginning point, determined by the annual water requirements as influenced by them in the model. The optimum values of the selected factors for the model were respectively 58% for crop coefficient defined on the energy indicator scale of the small copper pan evaporation, 50 mm for reservoir capacity on the basis of the average of experimentally determined values for sandy loam, loam, clay loam, and clay soils, and 65% of the reservoir capacity for the beginning point of drought.

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A Modified Diffusion Model Considering Autocorrelated Disturbances: Applications on CT Scanners and FPD TVs (자기상관 오차항을 고려한 수정된 확산모형: CT-스캐너와 FPD TV에의 응용)

  • Cha, Kyoung Cheon;Kim, Sang-Hoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.29-38
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    • 2009
  • Estimating the Bass diffusion model often creates a time-interval bias, which leads the OLS approach to overestimate sales at early stages and underestimate sales after the peak. Further, a specification error from omitted variables might raise serial correlations among residuals when marketing actions are not incorporated into the diffusion model. Autocorrelated disturbances may yield unbiased but inefficient estimation, and therefore invalid inference results. This phenomenon warrants a modified approach to estimating the Bass diffusion model. In this paper, the authors propose a modified Bass diffusion model handling autocorrelated disturbances. To validate the new approach, authors applied the method on two different data-sets: CT Scanners in the U.S, and FPD TV sales in Korea. The results showed improved model fit and the validity of the proposed model.

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