• Title/Summary/Keyword: Yield estimation model

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Monetary Policy Independence and Bond Yield in Developing Countries

  • ANWAR, Cep Jandi;SUHENDRA, Indra
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigates the impact of monetary policy independence shock on bond yield by allowing for heterogeneous coefficients in the model based on panel data for 19 developing countries using quarterly data from 1991 to 2016. First, we estimate the model using conventional panel VAR estimation with the assumption of homogeneous coefficients across countries. Second, by performing Chow and Roy-Zellner tests to check the homogeneity assumption, we find that the assumption does not hold in the model. Third, we apply a mean-group estimation for panel VAR as a solution for heterogeneity panel model. The results reveal that central bank independence is effective in reducing bond yield with the maximum at period 6 after the shock. Shock one standard deviation bond yield has a negative effect on consumption and investment. We determine that central bank independence has a contradictory effect on real activity; a negative effect on consumption but a positive influence on investment for the first two years after the shock. Additionally, we split our sample into three groups to make the subgroups pool. Our empirical result shows that monetary policy independence shock reduces bond yield. Meanwhile, the response of economic activity to bond yield varies for all three groups.

Estimation of Defect Clustering Parameter Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Markov Chain Monte Carlo를 이용한 반도체 결함 클러스터링 파라미터의 추정)

  • Ha, Chung-Hun;Chang, Jun-Hyun;Kim, Joon-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.99-109
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    • 2009
  • Negative binomial yield model for semiconductor manufacturing consists of two parameters which are the average number of defects per die and the clustering parameter. Estimating the clustering parameter is quite complex because the parameter has not clear closed form. In this paper, a Bayesian approach using Markov Chain Monte Carlo is proposed to estimate the clustering parameter. To find an appropriate estimation method for the clustering parameter, two typical estimators, the method of moments estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator, and the proposed Bayesian estimator are compared with respect to the mean absolute deviation between the real yield and the estimated yield. Experimental results show that both the proposed Bayesian estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator have excellent performance and the choice of method depends on the purpose of use.

Assessing the EPIC Model for Estimation of Future Crops Yield in South Korea (미래 작물생산량 추정을 위한 EPIC 모형의 국내 적용과 평가)

  • Lim, Chul-Hee;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Song, Yongho;Eom, Ki-Cheol
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.21-31
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    • 2015
  • Various crop models have been extensively used for estimation of the crop yields. Compared to the other models, the EPIC model uses a unified approach to simulate more than 100 types of crops. It has been successfully applied in simulating crop yields for various combinations of weather conditions, soil properties, crops, and management schemes in many countries. The objective of this study was to estimate the rice and maize yield in South Korea using the EPIC model. The input datasets for the 30 types in the 11 categories were created for the EPIC model. The EPIC model simulated rice and maize yields. The performance of the EPIC model was evaluated with the goodness-of-fit measures including Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Relative Error (RE), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Coefficient (NSEC), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Pearson Correelation Coefficient (r). The rice yield showed to more high accuracy than maize yield on four type of method without NSEC. Theses results showed that the EPIC model better simulated rice yields than maize yields. The results suggest that the EPIC crop model can be useful to estimate crop yield in South Korea.

Regional Scale Rice Yield Estimation by Using a Time-series of RADARSAT ScanSAR Images

  • Li, Yan;Liao, Qifang;Liao, Shengdong;Chi, Guobin;Peng, Shaolin
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.917-919
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    • 2003
  • This paper demonstrates that RADARSAT ScanSAR data can be an important data source of radar remote sensing for monitoring crop systems and estimation of rice yield for large areas in tropic and sub-tropical regions. Experiments were carried out to show the effectiveness of RADARSAT ScanSAR data for rice yield estimation in whole province of Guangdong, South China. A methodology was developed to deal with a series of issues in extracting rice information from the ScanSAR data, such as topographic influences, levels of agro-management, irregular distribution of paddy fields and different rice cropping systems. A model was provided for rice yield estimation based on the relationship between the backscatter coefficient of multi-temporal SAR data and the biomass of rice.

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Development of Estimation Technique for Rice Yield Reduction by Inundation Damage (침수피해에 의한 벼 감수량 추정기법 개발)

  • Park , Jong-Min;Kim , Sang-Min;Seong, Chung-Hyun;Park, Seung-Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.46 no.5
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    • pp.89-98
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    • 2004
  • The amount of rice yield reduction due to inundation should be estimated to analyse economic efficiency of the farmland drainage improvement projects because those projects are generally promoted to mitigate flood inundation damage to rice in Korea. Estimation of rice yield reduction will also provide information on the flood risk performance to farmers. This study presented the relationships between inundated durations and rice yield reduction rates for different rice growth stages from the observed data collected from 1966 to 2000 in Korea, and developed the rice yield reduction estimation model (RYREM). RYREM was applied to the test watershed for estimating the rice yield reduction rates and the amount of expected average annual rice yield reduction by the rainfalls with 48 hours duration, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 years return periods.

Monthly Sediment Yield Estimation Based on Watershed-scale Application of ArcSATEEC with Correction Factor (보정계수 적용을 통한 유역에 대한 ArcSATEEC의 월별 토양유실량 추정 방안 연구)

  • Kim, Eun Seok;Lee, Hanyong;Yang, Jae E;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Park, Youn Shik
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.52-64
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    • 2020
  • The universal soil loss equation (USLE), a model for estimating the potential soil loss, has been used not only in research areas but also in establishing national policies in South Korea. Despite its wide applicability, USLE cannot adequately address the effect of seasonal variances. To overcome this limit, the ArcGIS-based Sediment Assessment Tool for Effective Erosion (ArcSATEEC) has been developed as an alternative model. Although the field-scale (< 100 ㎡) application of this model produced reliable estimation results, it is still challenging to validate accuracy of the model estimation because it only estimates potential soil losses, not the actual sediment yield. Therefore, in this study, a method for estimating actual soil loss based on the ArcSATEEC model was suggested. The model was applied to eight watersheds in South Korea to estimate sediment yields. Correction factor was introduced for each watershed, and the estimated sediment yield was compared with that of the estimated yield by LOAD ESTimator (LOADEST). Sediment yield estimation for all watersheds exhibited reliable results, and the validity of the proposed correction factor was confirmed, suggesting the correction factor needs to be considered in estimating actual soil loss.

Performance Estimation Method of Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System (계통연계형 태양광발전시스템의 성능 추정방법)

  • So, Jung-Hun;Lee, Bong-Seob;Yoo, Jin-Su;Hwang, Hye-Mi;Yu, Gwon-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.30 no.6
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2010
  • This paper presents performance estimation approach of grid-connected photovoltaic(PV) system to predict energy yield from irradiance to PV system using normalized yield model for changing meteorological conditions. The accuracy and validity of proposed performance estimation method is identified by compared measured with estimated yield using monitored data. These results will indicate that it is useful to estimate various loss factors causing the system performance obstruction and enhance the lifetime yield of PV system.

Convolutional Neural Networks for Rice Yield Estimation Using MODIS and Weather Data: A Case Study for South Korea (MODIS와 기상자료 기반 회선신경망 알고리즘을 이용한 남한 전역 쌀 생산량 추정)

  • Ma, Jong Won;Nguyen, Cong Hieu;Lee, Kyungdo;Heo, Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.525-534
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    • 2016
  • In South Korea, paddy rice has been consumed over the entire region and it is the main source of income for farmers, thus mathematical model for the estimation of rice yield is required for such decision-making processes in agriculture. The objectives of our study are to: (1) develop rice yield estimation model using Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN), (2) choose hyper-parameters for the model which show the best performance and (3) investigate whether CNN model can effectively predict the rice yield by the comparison with the model using Artificial Neural Networks(ANN). Weather and MODIS(The MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products from April to September in year 2000~2013 were used for the rice yield estimation models and cross-validation was implemented for the accuracy assessment. The CNN and ANN models showed Root Mean Square Error(RMSE) of 36.10kg/10a, 48.61kg/10a based on rice points, respectively and 31.30kg/10a, 39.31kg/10a based on 'Si-Gun-Gu' districts, respectively. The CNN models outperformed ANN models and its possibility of application for the field of rice yield estimation in South Korea was proved.

Detrending Crop Yield Data for Improving MODIS NDVI and Meteorological Data Based Rice Yield Estimation Model (벼 수량 자료의 추세분석을 통한 MODIS NDVI 및 기상자료 기반의 벼 수량 추정 모형 개선)

  • Na, Sang-il;Hong, Suk-young;Ahn, Ho-yong;Park, Chan-won;So, Kyu-ho;Lee, Kyung-do
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.2
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2021
  • By removing the increasing trend that long-term time series average of rice yield due to technological advancement of rice variety and cultivation management, we tried to improve the rice yield estimation model which developed earlier using MODIS NDVI and meteorological data. A multiple linear regression analysis was carried out by using the NDVI derived from MYD13Q1 and weather data from 2002 to 2019. The model was improved by analyzing the increasing trend of rime-series rice yield and removing it. After detrending, the accuracy of the model was evaluated through the correlation analysis between the estimated rice yield and the yield statistics using the improved model. It was found that the rice yield predicted by the improved model from which the trend was removed showed good agreement with the annual change of yield statistics. Compared with the model before the trend removal, the correlation coefficient and the coefficient of determination were also higher. It was indicated that the trend removal method effectively corrects the rice yield estimation model.

A Study of Establishment of Parameter and Modeling for Yield Estimation (수율 예측을 위한 변수 설정과 모델링에 대한 연구)

  • 김흥식;김진수;김태각;최민성
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics A
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    • v.30A no.2
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 1993
  • The estimation of yield for semiconductor devices requires not only establishment of critical area but also a new parameter of process defect density that contains inspection mean defect density related cleanness of manufacure process line, minimum feature size and the total number of mask process. We estimate the repaired yield of memory devide, leads the semiconductor technique, repaired by redundancy scheme in relation with defect density distribution function, and we confirm the repaired yield for different devices as this model. This shows the possibility of the yield estimation as statistical analysis for the condition of device related cleanness of manufacture process line, design and manufacture process.

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