• 제목/요약/키워드: Wind prediction model

검색결과 560건 처리시간 0.023초

바람 하중에 의한 크루즈선의 횡경사 예측 및 제어에 관한 연구 (Study on Prediction and Control of Wind-Induced Heel Motion of Cruise Ship)

  • 김재한;김용환;김용수
    • 대한조선학회논문집
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    • 제50권4호
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    • pp.206-216
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    • 2013
  • The present study considers the prediction of wind-induced heel of cruise ship and its stabilization. Wind load in ocean exerts on the surface of superstructure of cruise ship, which causes the heel moment on the ship. The calculation of wind load starts from choosing wind speed profile, so that the logarithmic wind profile model is applied in this study. Heel moment by wind load is calculated by adopting approximate formulation and applied to the ship motion analysis in time domain. Motion stabilizers, such as stabilizing fin and U-tube tank, are considered to reduce the heel effect as well as excessive roll motion. From this study, it is expected that the present method can be applied to the prediction and stabilization of the heel motion of cruise ships.

풍력발전출력의 공간예측 향상을 위한 상관관계감소거리(CoDecDist) 모형 분석에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Analysis of Correlation Decay Distance(CoDecDist) Model for Enhancing Spatial Prediction Outputs of Spatially Distributed Wind Farms)

  • 허진
    • 조명전기설비학회논문지
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    • 제29권7호
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    • pp.80-86
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    • 2015
  • As wind farm outputs depend on natural wind resources that vary over space and time, spatial correlation analysis is needed to estimate power outputs of wind generation resources. As a result, geographic information such as latitude and longitude plays a key role to estimate power outputs of spatially distributed wind farms. In this paper, we introduce spatial correlation analysis to estimate the power outputs produced by wind farms that are geographically distributed. We present spatial correlation analysis of empirical power output data for the JEJU Island and ERCOT ISO (Texas) wind farms and propose the Correlation Decay Distance (CoDecDist) model based on geographic correlation analysis to enhance the estimation of wind power outputs.

Modeling of wind and temperature effects on modal frequencies and analysis of relative strength of effect

  • Zhou, H.F.;Ni, Y.Q.;Ko, J.M.;Wong, K.Y.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.35-50
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    • 2008
  • Wind and temperature have been shown to be the critical sources causing changes in the modal properties of large-scale bridges. While the individual effects of wind and temperature on modal variability have been widely studied, the investigation about the effects of multiple environmental factors on structural modal properties was scarcely reported. This paper addresses the modeling of the simultaneous effects of wind and temperature on the modal frequencies of an instrumented cable-stayed bridge. Making use of the long-term monitoring data from anemometers, temperature sensors and accelerometers, a neural network model is formulated to correlate the modal frequency of each vibration mode with wind speed and temperature simultaneously. Research efforts have been made on enhancing the prediction capability of the neural network model through optimal selection of the number of hidden nodes and an analysis of relative strength of effect (RSE) for input reconstruction. The generalization performance of the formulated model is verified with a set of new testing data that have not been used in formulating the model. It is shown that using the significant components of wind speeds and temperatures rather than the whole measurement components as input to neural network can enhance the prediction capability. For the fundamental mode of the bridge investigated, wind and temperature together apply an overall negative action on the modal frequency, and the change in wind condition contributes less to the modal variability than the change in temperature.

HYSPLIT 모형 입력설정에 따른 바람 이동경로 예측 결과 공간 분석 (Spatial Analysis of Wind Trajectory Prediction According to the Input Settings of HYSPLIT Model)

  • 김광수;이승재;박진유
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.222-234
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    • 2021
  • 바람에 의해 해외지역에서 국내로 유입되는 비래해충들은 주요 작물에 상당한 피해를 초래할 수 있다. 바람에 의한 비래해충의 이동 경로를 추정하기 위해 기상 모형들이 사용되는데, 본 연구에서는 비래해충이 도달할 수 있는 지역을 예측할 때 입력설정이 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 벼멸구가 중국에서 국내로 유입된다는 가정하에 입자의 바람이동 경로를 추적하기 위해 개발된 HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) 모형을 사용하여 바람의 이동경로를 예측하였다. 중국, 한국 및 일본이 포함된 중규모 수치기상모형 자료를 사용하여 순간 및 평균 풍속자료가 포함된 기상입력자료를 생성하였다. 또한, 이동 경로 계산을 위해 계산 시간 간격을 1, 30, 60분으로 설정하였다. 중국에서 벼멸구가 관측된 지점에서 2019년과 2021년 6월 상순 기간 동안 바람의 이동 경로를 계산한 결과, 순간 풍속과 평균 풍속자료를 사용함에 따라 비래해충 도달지점에 큰 차이가 나타났다. 계산 시간에 따른 이동 경로 결과값들의 공간적 분포는 상대적으로 유사도가 높았으며, 순간풍속을 사용한 경우 벼멸구 관측지역과 비교적 유사한 경향이 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 바람 경로를 추적하여 비래해충 도착지점을 추정할 때 사용되는 입력자료의 특성을 파악하고 이들로부터 발생하는 불확도에 대한 고려가 필요함을 시사한다.

소규모 만에서 취송류의 신속예측을 위한 convolution 기법의 적용 (Application of the Convolution Method on the Fast Prediction of the Wind-Driven Current in a Samll Bay)

  • 최석원;조규대;윤홍주
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제8권3호
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    • pp.299-307
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    • 1999
  • In order to fast predict the wind-driven current in a small bay, a convolution method in which the wind-driven current can be generated only with the local wind is developed and applied in the idealized bay and the idealized Sachon Bay. The accuracy of the convlution method is assessed through a series of the numerical experiements carried out in the jidealized bay and the idealized Sachon Bay. The optimum response function for the convolution method is obtained by minimizing the root man square (rms) difference between the current given by the numerical model and the current given by the convolution method. The north-south component of the response function shows simultaneous fluctuations in the wind and wind-driven current at marginal region while it shows "sea-saw" fluctuations (in which the wind and wind-driven current have opposite direction) at the central region in the idealized Sachon Bay. The present wind is strong enough to influence on the wind-driven current especially in the idealized Sachon Bay. The spatial average of the rms ratio defined as the ratio of the rms error to the rms speed is 0.05 in the idealized bay and 0.26 in the idealized Sachon Bay. The recover rate of kinetic energy(rrke) is 99% in the idealized bay and 94% in the idealized Sachon Bay. Thus, the predicted wind-driven current by the convolution model is in a good agreement with the computed one by the numerical model in the idealized bay and the idealized Sachon Bay.achon Bay.

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A hybrid numerical simulation method for typhoon wind field over complex terrain

  • Huang, Wenfeng;Zhou, Huanlin
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제18권5호
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    • pp.549-566
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    • 2014
  • In spite of progress in the numerical simulation of typhoon wind field in atmospheric boundary layer (ABL), using typhoon wind field model in conjunction with Monte Carlo simulation method can only accurately evaluate typhoon wind field over a general terrain. This method is not enough for a reliable evaluation of typhoon wind field over the actual complex terrain with surface roughness and topography variations. To predict typhoon wind field over the actual complex terrain in ABL, a hybrid numerical simulation method combined typhoon simulation used the typhoon wind field model proposed by Meng et al. (1995) and CFD simulation in which the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations and k-${\varepsilon}$ turbulence model are used. Typhoon wind filed during typhoon Dujuan and Imbudo are simulated using the hybrid numerical simulation method, and compared with the results predicted by the typhoon wind field model and the wind field measurement data collected by Fugro Geotechnical Services (FGS) in Hong Kong at the bridge site from the field monitoring system of wind turbulence parameters (FMS-WTP) to validate the feasibility and accuracy of the hybrid numerical simulation method. The comparison demonstrates that the hybrid numerical simulation method gives more accurate prediction to typhoon wind speed and direction, because the effect of topography is taken into account in the hybrid numerical simulation method.

Response prediction of a 50 m guyed mast under typhoon conditions

  • Law, S.S.;Bu, J.Q.;Zhu, X.Q.;Chan, S.L.
    • Wind and Structures
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    • 제9권5호
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    • pp.397-412
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    • 2006
  • This paper presents the wind excited acceleration responses of a 50 m guyed mast under the action of Typhoon Dujuan. The response of the structure is reconstructed from using a full finite element model and an equivalent beam-column model. The wind load is modelled based on the measured wind speed and recommendations for high-rise structures. The nonlinear time response analysis is conducted using the Newton Raphson iteration procedure. Comparative studies on the measured and computed frequencies and acceleration responses show that the torsional vibration of the structure is significant particularly in the higher vibration modes after the first few bending modes. The equivalent model, in general, gives less accurate amplitude predictions than the full model because of the omission of torsional stiffness of the mast in the vibration analysis, but the root-mean-square value is close to the measured value in general with an error of less than 10%.

국지앙상블시스템을 활용한 농경지 바람 및 강풍 예측 (Prediction of Agricultural Wind and Gust Using Local Ensemble Prediction System)

  • 강정혁;김건후;김규랑
    • 한국농림기상학회지
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    • 제26권2호
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    • pp.115-125
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    • 2024
  • 바람은 농업환경에 주요한 영향을 주는 기상요소이며, 강풍은 낙과, 시설물 파괴 등의 피해를 일으킨다. 본 연구는 LENS에 물리모델을 적용해서 농경지에 활용될 수 있는 저고도 풍속예측을 진행하였다. 물리모델은 LOG, POW가 사용되었고 지표 변수에 대해서는 환경부지표와 MODIS 지표를 따로 적용하였다. 농촌진흥청에서 운영하는 2022년도 3 m 고도의 바람 및 강풍 자료를 수집하고 검증을 진행하였고 결과를 산점도, 상관계수, RMSE, NRMSE, TS로 나타내었다. 풍속비교 4가지 방법의 결과에서 모델이 관측보다 더 크게 예측하고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다. 강풍 기준 값이 3 m s-1 일 때, TS 가 약 0.65 정도로 나타났다. 결과는 RMSE와 NRMSE에서는 LOG_L, LOG_M, POW_L, POW_M 순으로 좋게 나타났고 상관계수와 TS에서는 역순으로 좋게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 정해진 강풍 기준을 추가하여, 농경지 바람 및 강풍확률예측 연구에 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다.

Prediction of typhoon design wind speed and profile over complex terrain

  • Huang, W.F.;Xu, Y.L.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • 제45권1호
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2013
  • The typhoon wind characteristics designing for buildings or bridges located in complex terrain and typhoon prone region normally cannot be achieved by the very often few field measurement data, or by physical simulation in wind tunnel. This study proposes a numerical simulation procedure for predicting directional typhoon design wind speeds and profiles for sites over complex terrain by integrating typhoon wind field model, Monte Carlo simulation technique, CFD simulation and artificial neural networks (ANN). The site of Stonecutters Bridge in Hong Kong is chosen as a case study to examine the feasibility of the proposed numerical simulation procedure. Directional typhoon wind fields on the upstream of complex terrain are first generated by using typhoon wind field model together with Monte Carlo simulation method. Then, ANN for predicting directional typhoon wind field at the site are trained using representative directional typhoon wind fields for upstream and these at the site obtained from CFD simulation. Finally, based on the trained ANN model, thousands of directional typhoon wind fields for the site can be generated, and the directional design wind speeds by using extreme wind speed analysis and the directional averaged mean wind profiles can be produced for the site. The case study demonstrated that the proposed procedure is feasible and applicable, and that the effects of complex terrain on design typhoon wind speeds and wind profiles are significant.

대기-해양 결합 자료동화가 서해 연안지역의 기상예측에 미치는 영향 연구 (Effect of a Coupled Atmosphere-ocean Data Assimilation on Meteorological Predictions in the West Coastal Region of Korea)

  • 이성빈;송상근;문수환
    • 한국환경과학회지
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    • 제31권7호
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    • pp.617-635
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    • 2022
  • The effect of coupled data assimilation (DA) on the meteorological prediction in the west coastal region of Korea was evaluated using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (e.g., COAWST) in the spring (March 17-26) of 2019. We performed two sets of simulation experiments: (1) with the coupled DA (i.e., COAWST_DA) and (2) without the coupled DA (i.e., COAWST_BASE). Overall, compared with the COAWST_BASE simulation, the COAWST_DA simulation showed good agreement in the spatial and temporal variations of meteorological variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity) with those of the observations. In particular, the effect of the coupled DA on wind speed was greatly improved. This might be primarily due to the prediction improvement of the sea surface temperature resulting from the coupled DA in the study area. In addition, the improvement of meteorological prediction in COAWST_DA simulation was also confirmed by the comparative analysis between SST and other meteorological variables (sea surface wind speed and pressure variation).