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http://dx.doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2021.23.4.222

Spatial Analysis of Wind Trajectory Prediction According to the Input Settings of HYSPLIT Model  

Kim, Kwang Soo (Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Bioresources, Seoul National University)
Lee, Seung-Jae (National Center for AgroMeteorology)
Park, Jin Yu (Research Institute Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / v.23, no.4, 2021 , pp. 222-234 More about this Journal
Abstract
Airborne-pests can be introduced into Korea from overseas areas by wind, which can cause considerable damage to major crops. Meteorological models have been used to estimate the wind trajectories of airborne insects. The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of input settings on the prediction of areas where airborne pests arrive by wind. The wind trajectories were predicted using the HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. The HYSPLIT model was used to track the wind dispersal path of particles under the assumption that brown plant hopper (Nilaparvata lugens) was introduced into Korea from sites where the pest was reported in China. Meteorological input data including instantaneous and average wind speed were generated using meso-scale numerical weather model outputs for the domain where China, Korea, and Japan were included. In addition, the calculation time intervals were set to 1, 30, and 60 minutes for the wind trajectory calculation during early June in 2019 and 2020. It was found that the use of instantaneous and average wind speed data resulted in a considerably large difference between the arrival areas of airborne pests. In contrast, the spatial distribution of arrival areas had a relatively high degree of similarity when the time intervals were set to be 1 minute. Furthermore, these dispersal patterns predicted using the instantaneous wind speed were similar to the regions where the given pest was observed in Korea. These results suggest that the impact assessment of input settings on wind trajectory prediction would be needed to improve the reliability of an approach to predict regions where airborne-pest could be introduced.
Keywords
Wind trajectory; Long distance dispersal; Jet stream; Airborne insects; HYSPLIT model;
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