The aim of this study is to examine weather modification by urbanization and human activities. The characteristics of the urban heat island (UHI) and precipitation in Seoul metropolitan area of Korea are investigated to demonstrate that cities can change or modify local and nearby weather and climate, and to confirm that cities can initiate convection, change the behavior of convective precipitation, and enhance downstream precipitation. The data used in this study are surface meteorological station data observed in Seoul and its nearby 5 cities for the period of 1960 to 2009, and 162 Automatic Weather System stations data observed in the Seoul metropolitan area from 1998 to 2009. Air temperature and precipitation amount tend to increase with time, and relative humidity decreases because of urbanization. Similar to previous studies for other cities, the average maximum UHI is weakest in summer and is strong in autumn and winter, and the maximum UHI intensity is more frequently observed in the nighttime than in the daytime, decreases with increasing wind speed, and is enhanced for clear skies. Relatively warm regions extend in the east-west direction and relatively cold regions are located near the northern and southern mountains inside Seoul. The satellite cities in the outskirts of Seoul have been rapidly built up in recent years, thus exhibiting increases in near-surface air temperature. The yearly precipitation amount during the last 50 years is increased with time but rainy days are decreased. The heavy rainfall events of more than $20mm\;hr^{-1}$ increases with time. The substantial changes observed in precipitation in Seoul seem to be linked with the accelerated increase in the urban sprawl in recent decades which in turn has induced an intensification of the UHI effect and enhanced downstream precipitation. We also found that the frequency of intense rain showers has increased in Seoul metropolitan area.
Park, Jihoon;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong;Jung, Imgook
Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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v.23
no.4
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pp.153-168
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2017
The main objective of this study was to assess reference evapotranspiration based on multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) and estimation methods. In this study, 10 GCMs based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration. 54 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) data were constructed by statistical downscaling techniques. The meteorological variables of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were produced using GCMs. For the past and future periods, we estimated reference evapotranspiration by GCMs and analyzed the statistical characteristics and analyzed its uncertainty. Five methods (BC: Blaney-Criddle, HS: Hargreaves-Samani, MK: Makkink, MS: Matt-Shuttleworth, and PM: Penman-Monteith) were selected to analyze the uncertainty by reference evapotranspiration estimation methods. We compared the uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration method by the variable expansion and analyzed which variables greatly influence reference evapotranspiration estimation. The posterior probabilities of five methods were estimated as BC: 0.1792, HS: 0.1775, MK: 0.2361, MS: 0.2054, and PM: 0.2018. The posterior probability indicated how well reference evapotranspiration estimated with 10 GCMs for five methods reflected the estimated reference evapotranspiration using the observed data. Through this study, we analyzed the overall characteristics of reference evapotranspiration according to GCMs and reference evapotranspiration estimation methods The results of this study might be used as a basic data for preparing the standard method of reference evapotranspiration to derive the water management method under climate change.
Kim, Deokwhan;Kim, Jungwook;Joo, Hongjun;Han, Daegun;Kim, Hung Soo
Membrane and Water Treatment
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v.10
no.1
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pp.1-11
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2019
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) predicted that recent extreme hydrological events would affect water quality and aggravate various forms of water pollution. To analyze changes in water quality due to future climate change, input data (precipitation, average temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed and sunlight) were established using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario suggested by the AR5 and calculated the future runoff for each target period (Reference:1989-2015; I: 2016-2040; II: 2041-2070; and III: 2071-2099) using the semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes (SLURP) model. Meteorological factors that affect water quality (precipitation, temperature and runoff) were inputted into the multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to analyze water quality data, dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorus (T-P). Future water quality prediction of the Anseongcheon River basin shows that DO at Gongdo station in the river will drop by 35% in autumn by the end of the $21^{st}$ century and that BOD, COD and SS will increase by 36%, 20% and 42%, respectively. Analysis revealed that the oxygen demand at Dongyeongyo station will decrease by 17% in summer and BOD, COD and SS will increase by 30%, 12% and 17%, respectively. This study suggests that there is a need to continuously monitor the water quality of the Anseongcheon River basin for long-term management. A more reliable prediction of future water quality will be achieved if various social scenarios and climate data are taken into consideration.
This study develops an artificial intelligence prediction system for Fine particulate Matter(PM2.5) based on the deep learning algorithm GAN model. The experimental data are closely related to the changes in temperature, humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure generated by the time series axis and the concentration of air pollutants such as SO2, CO, O3, NO2, and PM10. Due to the characteristics of the data, since the concentration at the current time is affected by the concentration at the previous time, a predictive model for recursive supervised learning was applied. For comparative analysis of the accuracy of the existing models, CNN and LSTM, the difference between observation value and prediction value was analyzed and visualized. As a result of performance analysis, it was confirmed that the proposed GAN improved to 15.8%, 10.9%, and 5.5% in the evaluation items RMSE, MAPE, and IOA compared to LSTM, respectively.
Purpose: Trauma incidence and hospitalizations of trauma patients are generally believed to be affected by season and weather. The objective of this study was to explore possible associations of the hospitalization rate of trauma patients with weather and time variables at a single regional trauma center in South Korea. Methods: Trauma hospitalization data were obtained from a regional trauma center in South Korea from January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019. In total, from 6,788 patients with trauma, data of 3,667 patients were analyzed, excluding those from outside the city where the trauma center was located. Hourly weather service data were obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Results: The hospitalization rate showed positive correlations with temperature (r=0.635) and wind speed (r=0.501), but a negative correlation with humidity (r=-0.620). It showed no significant correlation (r=0.036) with precipitation. The hospitalization rate also showed significant correlations with time of day (p=0.033) and month (p=0.22). Conclusions: Weather and time affected the number of hospitalizations at a trauma center. The findings of this study could be used to determine care delivery, staffing, and resource allocation plans at trauma centers and emergency departments.
Photovoltaics (PV) power generation efficiency is affected by meteorological factors such as temperature and wind speed. In general, it is known that the power generation amount decreases because photovoltaics panel temperature rises and the power generation efficiency decreases in summer. Photovoltaics Thermal (PVT) power generation has the ad-vantage of being able to produce heat together with power, as well as preventing the reduction in power generation efficien-cy and output due to the temperature rise of the panel. In this study, the amount of heat collected by season and time was calculated for photovoltaics thermal modules using the International Weather for Energy Calculations (IWEC) data provided by the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE). Based on this, we propose a method of predicting the temperature of the photovoltaics panel using thermal analysis and then calculating the flow rate of coolant to improve power generation efficiency. As the results, the photovoltaics efficiencies versus time on January, April, July, and October in Jeju of the Republic of Korea were calculated to the range of 15.06% to 17.83%, and the maxi-mum cooling load and flow rate for the photovoltaics thermal module were calculated to 121.16 W and 45 cc/min, respec-tively. Though this study, it could be concluded that the photovoltaics thermal system can be composed of up to 53 modules with targeting the Jeju, since the maximum capacity of the coolant circulation pump of the photovoltaics thermal system applied in this study is 2,400 cc/min.
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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v.13
no.3
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pp.148-156
/
2011
The purpose of this study is to analyze the patterns of forest fire possibly related with Asian dust event and carry out a correlation analysis between forest fire occurrence and existence or not of the Asian dust event during dry seasons i.e. February to May in 2000 to 2008. To study the correlation of forest fire and Asian dust, we surveyed information of Asian dust observations, forest fire statistics, fire danger rating index, weather data such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed of the day occurring the forest fire. As a consequence of analysis, the regional frequency of Asian dust was the highest in Gyeonggi and Chungbuk divisions. Frequencies of forest fire occurrence by the Asian dust events were the highest in the day before three days of the Asian dust event. The highest frequent regions of forest fire occurrence were district of boundary line between Gyeonggi and Western of Gangwon, Chungbuk and Gyeonbuk inland. The correlation between forest fire and fire danger rating index showed the high correlation with the day before three days and after three days of the Asian dust event. These correlation coefficients were 0.50038 and 0.53978 to 1% significance level. The result of analysis between the frequency of forest fire occurrence and wind speed had a highly negative relationship at all the Asian dust days, the day before and after three days. The correlation coefficients had been -0.58623 to -0.61245 to 1% significance level. Relative humidity showed a little of negative relationship with forest fire occurrence in -0.2568(p ${\leq}$ 0.01) for the Asian dust day and -0.35309(p ${\leq}$ 0.01) for next three days. Moreover, at the day before three days of Asian dust events, it was -0.23701 to 1% significance level. However, the mean temperature did not correlate with frequency of forest fire occurrence by Asian dust events at all.
Microclimatic data were measured, and the human thermal sensation was analyzed at 10 local climate zones based on the major land cover classification to investigate the thermal environment of urban areas during summer nighttime. From the results, the green infrastructure areas (GNIAs) showed an average air temperature of 1.6℃ and up to 2.4℃ lower air temperature than the gray infrastructure areas (GYIAs), and the GNIAs showed an average relative humidity of 9.0% and up to 15.0% higher relative humidity. The wind speed of the GNIAs and GYIAs had minimal difference and showed no significance at all locations, except for the forest location, which had the lowest wind speed owing to the influence of trees. The local winds and the surface roughness, which was determined based on the heights of buildings and trees, appeared to be the main factors that influenced wind speed. At the mean radiant temperature, the forest location showed the maximum value, owing to the influence of trees. Except at the forest location, the GNIAs showed an average decrease of 5.5℃ compared to GYIAs. The main factor that influenced the mean radiant temperature was the sky view factor. In the analysis of the human thermal sensation, the GNIAs showed a "neutral" thermal perception level that was neither hot nor cold, and the GYIAs showed a "slightly warm" level, which was a level higher than those of the GNIAs. The GNIAs showed a 3.2℃ decrease compared to the GYIAs, except at the highest forest location, which indicated a half-level improvement in the human thermal environment.
Wind data forecasted from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is generally used as the first-guess of the target tracking process to obtain the atmospheric motion vectors(AMVs) because it increases tracking accuracy and reduce computational time. However, there is a contradiction that the NWP model used as the first-guess is used again as the reference in the AMVs verification process. To overcome this problem, model-independent first guesses are required. In this study, we propose the AMVs derivation from Lucas and Kanade optical flow method and then using it as the first guess. To retrieve AMVs, Himawari-8/AHI geostationary satellite level-1B data were used at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC from August 19 to September 5, 2015. To evaluate the impact of applying the optical flow method on the AMV derivation, cross-validation has been conducted in three ways as follows. (1) Without the first-guess, (2) NWP (KMA/UM) forecasted wind as the first-guess, and (3) Optical flow method based wind as the first-guess. As the results of verification using ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the highest precision (RMSVD: 5.296-5.804 ms-1) was obtained using optical flow based winds as the first-guess. In addition, the computation speed for AMVs derivation was the slowest without the first-guess test, but the other two had similar performance. Thus, applying the optical flow method in the target tracking process of AMVs algorithm, this study showed that the optical flow method is very effective as a first guess for model-independent AMVs derivation.
Measures for coping with energy shortage are being sought all over the world. Following such a phenomenon, effort to use less energy in the design of buildings and equipment are being conducted. In particular, a program to evaluate the performance of a building comes into the spotlight. However. indispensable standard wether data to estimate the exact energy consumption of a building is currently unprepared. Thus, after appling standard weather data for four weather factors which were used in previous researches to Visual DOE 4.0, we compared it with the result of the existing data and evaluated them. For the monthly cooling and heating load of our target building, we used revised data for June, July, August, and September during which cooling load is applied. When not the existing data but the revised data was used, the research shows that an average of 14.9% increased in June, August, and September except for July. Also, in a case of heating load, the result by the revised data shows a reduction of an average of 11.9% from October to April during which heating load is applied. In particular, the heating loads of all months for which the revised data was used were more low than those of the existing data. In the maximum cooling and heating load according to load factors, the loads by residents and illumination for which the revised data was used were the same as those of the existing data, but the maximum cooling loads used by the two data have a difference in structures such as walls and roofs. Through the above results, the research cannot clearly grasp which weather data influences the cooling and heating load of a building. However, in the maximum loads by the change of weather data in four factors (dry-bulb temperature, web-bulb temperature, cloud amount, and wind speed) among 14 weather factors, the research shows that 5.95% in cooling load and 27.56% in heating load increased, and these results cannot be ignored. In order to make weather data for Performing energy performance evaluation for future buildings, the flow of weather data for the Present and past should be obviously grasped.
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