• Title/Summary/Keyword: Wind Power Predict

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Predicting Power Generation Patterns Using the Wind Power Data (풍력 데이터를 이용한 발전 패턴 예측)

  • Suh, Dong-Hyok;Kim, Kyu-Ik;Kim, Kwang-Deuk;Ryu, Keun-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.245-253
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    • 2011
  • Due to the imprudent spending of the fossil fuels, the environment was contaminated seriously and the exhaustion problems of the fossil fuels loomed large. Therefore people become taking a great interest in alternative energy resources which can solve problems of fossil fuels. The wind power energy is one of the most interested energy in the new and renewable energy. However, the plants of wind power energy and the traditional power plants should be balanced between the power generation and the power consumption. Therefore, we need analysis and prediction to generate power efficiently using wind energy. In this paper, we have performed a research to predict power generation patterns using the wind power data. Prediction approaches of datamining area can be used for building a prediction model. The research steps are as follows: 1) we performed preprocessing to handle the missing values and anomalous data. And we extracted the characteristic vector data. 2) The representative patterns were found by the MIA(Mean Index Adequacy) measure and the SOM(Self-Organizing Feature Map) clustering approach using the normalized dataset. We assigned the class labels to each data. 3) We built a new predicting model about the wind power generation with classification approach. In this experiment, we built a forecasting model to predict wind power generation patterns using the decision tree.

Aerodynamic Analysis and System Implementation of Vertical Axis Wind Turbine using Individual Blade Pitch Control Method (개별 블레이드 피치 제어 방식을 이용한 수직축 풍력발전기의 성능 해석 및 시스템 구현)

  • Jeong, In-Oh;Lee, Yun-Han;Hwang, In-Seong;Kim, Seung-Jo
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2007.05b
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    • pp.3347-3352
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    • 2007
  • This paper describes a research for the performance improvement of the straight-bladed vertical axis wind turbine. To improve the performance of VAWT, the individual blade pitch control method is adopted. For the wind turbine, CFD analysis is carried out by changing blade pitch angle according to the change of wind speed and wind direction. By this method, capacity and power efficiency of VAWT are obtained according to the wind speed and rotating of rotor, and could predict the overall performance of VAWT. It was manufactured to verify performance of the experimental system that consists of rotor including four blades and base. Furthermore, torque sensor and power generator were installed. Also, active controller which can change the pitch angle of the individual blade according to the wind speed and direction was used.

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A Study on the Development of the Train Wind Rate Prediction Program in Tunnel of the Subway (지하철 터널내 열차풍 예측 프로그램 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, J.R.;Choi, K.H.
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.38-44
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    • 1999
  • Subway is one of the most important transportation and its facilities are increased by the drift of population to cities in these days. But heat generation results from lighting, human and traffic increase in subway, half-closed space, gives uncomfortable sense to the subway passengers. Therefore, natural ventilation by piston effect is done to relieve uncomfortable sense. But train wind by piston effect gives uncomfortable sense to the subway passengers, too. So the numerical calculation of inflow and outflow amounts is important to predict thermal environment and reduce train wind. In case of actual survey of train wind in target station, the amount of train wind are about $3100m^3/train$ at the minimum, about $6000m^3/train$ at the maximum, about $4200m^3/train$ on average. When comparison between simulation for train wind prediction and actual survey for accuracy was done train wind prediction program showed similar results.

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Basic Configuration Design and Performance Prediction of an 1 MW Wind Turbine Blade (1 MW 풍력터빈 블레이드 형상기본설계 및 성능해석)

  • Kim, Bum-Suk;Kim, Mann-Eung;Lee, Young-Ho
    • The KSFM Journal of Fluid Machinery
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2008
  • In modem wind power system of large capacity above 1MW, horizontal axis wind turbine(HAWT) is a common type. And, the optimum design of wind turbine to guarantee excellent power performance and its reliability in structure and longevity is a key technology in wind Industry. In this study, mathematical expressions based upon the conventional BEMT(blade element momentum theory) applying to basic 1MW wind turbine blade configuration design. Power coefficient and related flow parameters, such as Prandtl's tip loss coefficient, tangential and axial flow induction factors of the wind turbine analyzed systematically. X-FOIL was used to acquire lift and drag coefficients of the 2-D airfoils and we use Viterna-Corrigan formula to interpolate the aerodynamic characteristics in post-stall region. In order to predict the performance characteristics of the blade, a performance analysis carried out by BEMT method. As a results, axial and tangential flow factors, angle of attack, power coefficient investigated in this study.

IMPROVING DECISIONS IN WIND POWER SIMULATIONS USING MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS

  • Devin Hubbard;Borinara Park
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2013.01a
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    • pp.122-128
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    • 2013
  • Computer simulations designed to predict technical and financial returns of wind turbine installations are used to make informed investment decisions. These simulations used fixed values to represent real-world variables, while the actual projects can be highly uncertain, resulting in predictions that are less accurate and less useful. In this article, by modifying a popular wind power simulation sourced from the American Wind Energy Association to use Monte Carlo techniques in its calculations, the authors have proposed a way to improve simulation usability by producing probability distributions of likely outcomes, which can be used to draw broader, more useful conclusions about the simulated project.

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A study on short-term wind power forecasting using time series models (시계열 모형을 이용한 단기 풍력발전 예측 연구)

  • Park, Soo-Hyun;Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.7
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    • pp.1373-1383
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    • 2016
  • The wind energy industry and wind power generation have increased; consequently, the stable supply of the wind power has become an important issue. It is important to accurately predict the wind power with short-term basis in order to make a reliable planning for the power supply and demand of wind power. In this paper, we first analyzed the speed, power and the directions of the wind. The neural network and the time series models (ARMA, ARMAX, ARMA-GARCH, Holt Winters) for wind power generation forecasting were compared based on mean absolute error (MAE). For one to three hour-ahead forecast, ARMA-GARCH model was outperformed, and the neural network method showed a better performance in the six hour-ahead forecast.

A Study on Three-Dimensional Flow Characteristics and Power Performance of HAWT(Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine) by CFD (CFD를 이용한 풍력발전 터빈의 3차원 유동해석 및 성능평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim Beom-Seok;Kim Jeong-Hwan;Nam Chung-Do;Lee Young-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2002.08a
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    • pp.447-450
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this 3-D numerical simulation is to calculate and examine a 500 kW Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine (HAWT) power performance and 3-D rotor flow characteristics, which are compared to calculation data from Delft University. The experimental approach, which has been the main method of investigation, appears to be reaching its limits, the cost increasing relate with the size of wind turbines. Hence, the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques and Navier-Stokes solvers is considered a very serious contender. We has used the CFD software package CFX-TASCflow as a modeling tool to predict the power performance and 3-D flow characteristics of a wind turbine on the basis of its geometry and operating data. The wind turbine with 40m diameters rotor, it was scaled to compare with the calculation data from delft university. The HAWT, which has eight-rpm variations are investigated respectively. The pitch angle is $+0.5^{\circ}$and wind speed is fixed at 5m/s. The tip speed ratio (TSR) of the HAWT ranging from 2.89 to 9.63.

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Evaluating the Output of Small-size Wind Power Generators Using Weibull Data (와이블데이터를 이용한 소형풍력발전기 출력에 대한 평가)

  • You, Ki-Pyo;Kim, Young-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2012
  • This study purposed to predict wind energy for small size wind power generators at 50m above the ground in each area using mean wind speed data for 10 minutes collected from 2001 to 2011 by meteorological data in large cities having over 60% of 15 story (50m) or higher apartments including Seoul, Daejeon, Gwangju and Daegu representing the inland region, and Busan, Incheon and Ulsan representing the coastal region. In the results of analysis, we confirmed close agree ment between observatory weather data and probability density distribution obtained using Weibull's parameters, and this suggests that Weibull's parameter is applicable to the estimation of wind energy. Hourly output energy using the mean wind speed for 10 minutes and output energy obtained from Weibull's parameter showed an error less than 5%, and thus it was found that wind energy can be evaluated using Weibull's modulus.

A Study of Energy Production Change according to Atmospheric Stability and Equivalent Wind Speed in the Offshore Wind Farm using CFD Program (CFD를 이용한 등가풍속 산정과 대기안정도에 따른 연안풍력단지 발전량 변화 연구)

  • Ryu, Geon-Hwa;Kim, Dong-Hyeok;Lee, Hwa-Woon;Park, Soon-Young;Kim, Hyun-Goo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.247-257
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    • 2016
  • To predict annual energy production (AEP) accurately in the wind farm where located in Seongsan, Jeju Island, Equivalent wind speed (EQ) which can consider vertical wind shear well than Hub height wind speed (HB) is calculated. AEP is produced by CFD model WindSim from National wind resource map. EQ shows a tendency to be underestimated about 2.7% (0.21 m/s) than HB. The difference becomes to be large at nighttime when wind shear is large. EQ can be also affected by atmospheric stability so that is classified by wind shear exponent (${\alpha}$). AEP is increased by 11% when atmosphere becomes to be stabilized (${\alpha}$ > 0.2) than it is convective (${\alpha}$ < 0.1). However, it is found that extreme wind shear (${\alpha}$ > 0.3) is hazardous for power generation. This results represent that AEP calculated by EQ can provide improved accuracy to short-term wind power forecast and wind resource assessment.

Evaluation of Material Properties about CFRP Composite Adapted for Wind Power Blade by using DIC Method (풍력발전기 블레이드 적용 CFRP 복합재료의 DIC 방법에 의한 재료특성치 평가)

  • Kang, J.W.;Kwon, O.H.;Kim, T.K.;Cho, S.J.
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.17-23
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    • 2010
  • In recent, the capacity of a commercial wind power has reached the range of 6 MW, with large plants being built world-wide on land and offshore. The rotor blades and the nacelle are exposed to external loads. Wind power system concepts are reviewed, and loadings by wind and gravity as important factors for the mechanical performance of the materials are considered. So, the mechanical properties of fiber composite materials are discussed. Plain woven fabrics Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics (CFRP) are advanced materials which combine the characteristics of the light weight, high stiffness, strength and chemical stability. However, Plain woven CFRP composite have a lot of problems, especially delamination, compared with common materials. Therefore, the aim of this work is to estimate the mechanical properties using the tensile specimen and to evaluate strain using the CNF specimen on plain woven CFRP composites. For the strain, we tried to apply to plain woven CFRP using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) method and strain gauge. DIC method can evaluate a strain change so it can predict a location of fracture.