International conference on construction engineering and project management (국제학술발표논문집)
- 2013.01a
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- Pages.122-128
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- 2013
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- 2508-9048(eISSN)
IMPROVING DECISIONS IN WIND POWER SIMULATIONS USING MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS
- Devin Hubbard (College of Applied Science and Technology, Illinois State University) ;
- Borinara Park (College of Applied Science and Technology, Illinois State University)
- Published : 2013.01.09
Abstract
Computer simulations designed to predict technical and financial returns of wind turbine installations are used to make informed investment decisions. These simulations used fixed values to represent real-world variables, while the actual projects can be highly uncertain, resulting in predictions that are less accurate and less useful. In this article, by modifying a popular wind power simulation sourced from the American Wind Energy Association to use Monte Carlo techniques in its calculations, the authors have proposed a way to improve simulation usability by producing probability distributions of likely outcomes, which can be used to draw broader, more useful conclusions about the simulated project.