• Title/Summary/Keyword: Wind Power Forecasting

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Dynamic Reserve Estimating Method with Consideration of Uncertainties in Supply and Demand (수요와 공급의 불확실성을 고려한 시간대별 순동예비력 산정 방안)

  • Kwon, Kyung-Bin;Park, Hyeon-Gon;Lyu, Jae-Kun;Kim, Yu-Chang;Park, Jong-Keun
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.11
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    • pp.1495-1504
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    • 2013
  • Renewable energy integration and increased system complexities make system operator maintain supply and demand balance harder than before. To keep the grid frequency in a stable range, an appropriate spinning reserve margin should be procured with consideration of ever-changing system situation, such as demand, wind power output and generator failure. This paper propose a novel concept of dynamic reserve, which arrange different spinning reserve margin depending on time. To investigate the effectiveness of the proposed dynamic reserve, we developed a new short-term reliability criterion that estimates the probability of a spinning reserve shortage events, thus indicating grid frequency stability. Uncertainties of demand forecast error, wind generation forecast error and generator failure have been modeled in probabilistic terms, and the proposed spinning reserve has been applied to generation scheduling. This approach has been tested on the modified IEEE 118-bus system with a wind farm. The results show that the required spinning reserve margin changes depending on the system situation of demand, wind generation and generator failure. Moreover the proposed approach could be utilized even in case of system configuration change, such as wind generation extension.

Wind-sand coupling movement induced by strong typhoon and its influences on aerodynamic force distribution of the wind turbine

  • Ke, Shitang;Dong, Yifan;Zhu, Rongkuan;Wang, Tongguang
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.433-450
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    • 2020
  • The strong turbulence characteristic of typhoon not only will significantly change flow field characteristics surrounding the large-scale wind turbine and aerodynamic force distribution on surface, but also may cause morphological evolution of coast dune and thereby form sand storms. A 5MW horizontal-axis wind turbine in a wind power plant of southeastern coastal areas in China was chosen to investigate the distribution law of additional loads caused by wind-sand coupling movement of coast dune at landing of strong typhoons. Firstly, a mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mode was introduced in for high spatial resolution simulation of typhoon "Megi". Wind speed profile on the boundary layer of typhoon was gained through fitting based on nonlinear least squares and then it was integrated into the user-defined function (UDF) as an entry condition of small-scaled CFD numerical simulation. On this basis, a synchronous iterative modeling of wind field and sand particle combination was carried out by using a continuous phase and discrete phase. Influencing laws of typhoon and normal wind on moving characteristics of sand particles, equivalent pressure distribution mode of structural surface and characteristics of lift resistance coefficient were compared. Results demonstrated that: Compared with normal wind, mesoscale typhoon intensifies the 3D aerodynamic distribution mode on structural surface of wind turbine significantly. Different from wind loads, sand loads mainly impact on 30° ranges at two sides of the lower windward region on the tower. The ratio between sand loads and wind load reaches 3.937% and the maximum sand pressure coefficient is 0.09. The coupling impact effect of strong typhoon and large sand particles is more significant, in which the resistance coefficient of tower is increased by 9.80% to the maximum extent. The maximum resistance coefficient in typhoon field is 13.79% higher than that in the normal wind field.

Forecasting of Short Term Photovoltaic Generation by Various Input Model in Supervised Learning (지도학습에서 다양한 입력 모델에 의한 초단기 태양광 발전 예측)

  • Jang, Jin-Hyuk;Shin, Dong-Ha;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.478-484
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    • 2018
  • This study predicts solar radiation, solar radiation, and solar power generation using hourly weather data such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, cloudiness, sunshine and solar radiation. I/O pattern in supervised learning is the most important factor in prediction, but it must be determined by repeated experiments because humans have to decide. This study proposed four input and output patterns for solar and sunrise prediction. In addition, we predicted solar power generation using the predicted solar and solar radiation data and power generation data of Youngam solar power plant in Jeollanamdo. As a experiment result, the model 4 showed the best prediction results in the sunshine and solar radiation prediction, and the RMSE of sunshine was 1.5 times and the sunshine RMSE was 3 times less than that of model 1. As a experiment result of solar power generation prediction, the best prediction result was obtained for model 4 as well as sunshine and solar radiation, and the RMSE was reduced by 2.7 times less than that of model 1.

Characteristics of regional scale atmospheric dispersion around Ki-Jang research reactor using the Lagrangian Gaussian puff dispersion model

  • Choi, Geun-Sik;Lim, Jong-Myoung;Lim, Kyo-Sun Sunny;Kim, Ki-Hyun;Lee, Jin-Hong
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.68-79
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    • 2018
  • The Ki-Jang research reactor (KJRR), a new research reactor in Korea, is being planned to fulfill multiple purposes. In this study, as an assessment of the environmental radiological impact, we characterized the atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radioactive materials released by an unexpected incident at KJRR using the weather research and forecasting-mesoscale model interface program-California Puff (WRF-MMIF-CALPUFF) model system. Based on the reproduced three-dimensional gridded meteorological data obtained during a 1-year period using WRF, the overall meteorological data predicted by WRF were in agreement with the observed data, while the predicted wind speed data were slightly overestimated at all stations. Based on the CALPUFF simulation of atmospheric dispersion (${\chi}/Q$) and deposition (D/Q) factors, relatively heavier contamination in the vicinity of KJRR was observed, and the prevailing land breeze wind in the study area resulted in relatively higher concentration and deposition in the off-shore area sectors. We also compared the dispersion characteristics between the PAVAN (atmospheric dispersion of radioactive release from nuclear power plants) and CALPUFF models. Finally, the meteorological conditions and possibility of high doses of radiation for relatively higher hourly ${\chi}/Q$ cases were examined at specific discrete receptors.

Development of ESS Scheduling Algorithm to Maximize the Potential Profitability of PV Generation Supplier in South Korea

  • Kong, Junhyuk;Jufri, Fauzan Hanif;Kang, Byung O;Jung, Jaesung
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.2227-2235
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    • 2018
  • Under the current policies and compensation rules in South Korea, Photovoltaic (PV) generation supplier can maximize the profit by combining PV generation with Energy Storage System (ESS). However, the existing operational strategy of ESS is not able to maximize the profit due to the limitation of ESS capacity. In this paper, new ESS scheduling algorithm is introduced by utilizing the System Marginal Price (SMP) and PV generation forecasting to maximize the profits of PV generation supplier. The proposed algorithm determines the charging time of ESS by ranking the charging schedule from low to high SMP when PV generation is more than enough to charge ESS. The discharging time of ESS is determined by ranking the discharging schedule from high to low SMP when ESS energy is not enough to maintain the discharging. To compensate forecasting error, the algorithm is updated every hour to apply the up-to-date information. The simulation is performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm by using actual PV generation and ESS information.

Development of a Dynamic Downscaling Method for Use in Short-Range Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling Near Nuclear Power Plants

  • Sang-Hyun Lee;Su-Bin Oh;Chun-Ji Kim;Chun-Sil Jin;Hyun-Ha Lee
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.28-43
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    • 2023
  • Background: High-fidelity meteorological data is a prerequisite for the realistic simulation of atmospheric dispersion of radioactive materials near nuclear power plants (NPPs). However, many meteorological models frequently overestimate near-surface wind speeds, failing to represent local meteorological conditions near NPPs. This study presents a new high-resolution (approximately 1 km) meteorological downscaling method for modeling short-range (< 100 km) atmospheric dispersion of accidental NPP plumes. Materials and Methods: Six considerations from literature reviews have been suggested for a new dynamic downscaling method. The dynamic downscaling method is developed based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.6.1, applying high-resolution land-use and topography data. In addition, a new subgrid-scale topographic drag parameterization has been implemented for a realistic representation of the atmospheric surface-layer momentum transfer. Finally, a year-long simulation for the Kori and Wolsong NPPs, located in southeastern coastal areas, has been made for 2016 and evaluated against operational surface meteorological measurements and the NPPs' on-site weather stations. Results and Discussion: The new dynamic downscaling method can represent multiscale atmospheric motions from the synoptic to the boundary-layer scales and produce three-dimensional local meteorological fields near the NPPs with a 1.2 km grid resolution. Comparing the year-long simulation against the measurements showed a salient improvement in simulating near-surface wind fields by reducing the root mean square error of approximately 1 m/s. Furthermore, the improved wind field simulation led to a better agreement in the Eulerian estimate of the local atmospheric dispersion. The new subgrid-scale topographic drag parameterization was essential for improved performance, suggesting the importance of the subgrid-scale momentum interactions in the atmospheric surface layer. Conclusion: A new dynamic downscaling method has been developed to produce high-resolution local meteorological fields around the Kori and Wolsong NPPs, which can be used in short-range atmospheric dispersion modeling near the NPPs.

A Study on Climate Change KML Contents Publishing by using Meteorological Model (수치모델을 이용한 기후변화 KML 콘텐츠 출판 연구)

  • An, Seung-Man;Choi, Yeong-Jin;Eum, Jung-Hee;Jeon, Sang-Hee;Sung, Hyo-Hyun
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is visualizing climate change contents from Weather Research and Forecasting model and providing useful tool to anyone who want to use them for communication and actual movement. As a results, we have built a process and user interface for publishing Arrow KML, BWS KML, and DI KML. Arrow KML provide wind rose service and wind attribute information for each arrow. BWS KML provide a wind power index and DI KML provide a thermal comfort. All KML contents are more reliable because those are visualized from the scientifically verified climate change prediction model. Further study will focus on searching for climate change contents mining and useful contents design for wide range of climate change mitigation/adaptation activity.

The System Dynamics Model Development for Forecasting the Capacity of Renewables (신재생에너지 보급량 예측을 위한 시스템다이내믹스 모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hyun-Shil;Ko, Kyung-Ho;Ahn, Nam-Sung;Cho, Byung-Oke
    • Korean System Dynamics Review
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.35-56
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    • 2006
  • Korea is implementing strong regulatory derives such as Feed in Tariff to provide incentives for renewable energy developers. But if the government is planning to increase the renewable capacity with only "Price policy" not considering the investors behavior in the competitive electricity market, the policy would be failed. It is necessary system thinking and simulation model analysis to decide government's incentive goal. This study is focusing on the assesment of the competitiveness of renewable energy with the current Feed in Tariff incentives compared to the traditional energy source, specially coal and gas. The simulation results show that the market penetration of renewable energy with the current Feed-in-Tariff level is about 60-70% of the government goal under condition that the solar energy and fuel cell are assumed to provide the whole capacity set in the governmental goal. If the contribution from solar and fuel cell is lower than planned, the total penetration of renewable energy will be dropped more. Notably, Wind power turned out to be proved only 10% of government goal because of its low availability.

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Multiple Linear Regression Analysis of PV Power Forecasting for Evaluation and Selection of Suitable PV Sites (태양광 발전소 건설부지 평가 및 선정을 위한 선형회귀분석 기반 태양광 발전량 추정 모델)

  • Heo, Jae;Park, Bumsoo;Kim, Byungil;Han, SangUk
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.126-131
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    • 2019
  • The estimation of available solar energy at particular locations is critical to find and assess suitable locations of PV sites. The amount of PV power generation is however affected by various geographical factors (e.g., weather), which may make it difficult to identify the complex relationship between affecting factors and power outputs and to apply findings from one study to another in different locations. This study thus undertakes a regression analysis using data collected from 172 PV plants spatially distributed in Korea to identify critical weather conditions and estimate the potential power generation of PV systems. Such data also include solar radiation, precipitation, fine dust, humidity, temperature, cloud amount, sunshine duration, and wind speed. The estimated PV power generation is then compared to the actual PV power generation to evaluate prediction performance. As a result, the proposed model achieves a MAPE of 11.696(%) and an R-squred of 0.979. It is also found that the variables, excluding humidity, are all statistically significant in predicting the efficiency of PV power generation. According, this study may facilitate the understanding of what weather conditions can be considered and the estimation of PV power generation for evaluating and determining suitable locations of PV facilities.

Numerical Simulation of Extreme Air Pollution by Fine Particulate Matter in China in Winter 2013

  • Shimadera, Hikari;Hayami, Hiroshi;Ohara, Toshimasa;Morino, Yu;Takami, Akinori;Irei, Satoshi
    • Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.25-34
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    • 2014
  • In winter 2013, extreme air pollution by fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) in China attracted much public attention. In order to simulate the $PM_{2.5}$ pollution, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model driven by the Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to East Asia in a period from 1 January 2013 to 5 February 2013. The model generally reproduced $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in China with emission data in the year 2006. Therefore, the extreme $PM_{2.5}$ pollution seems to be mainly attributed to meteorological (weak wind and stable) conditions rather than emission increases in the past several years. The model well simulated temporal and spatial variations in $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations in Japan as well as China, indicating that the model well captured characteristics of the $PM_{2.5}$ pollutions in both areas on the windward and leeward sides in East Asia in the study period. In addition, contribution rates of four anthropogenic emission sectors (power generation, industrial, residential and transportation) in China to $PM_{2.5}$ concentration were estimated by conducting zero-out emission sensitivity runs. Among the four sectors, the residential sector had the highest contribution to $PM_{2.5}$ concentration. Therefore, the extreme $PM_{2.5}$ pollution may be also attributed to large emissions from combustion for heating in cold regions in China.