• Title/Summary/Keyword: What-if Analysis

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Systematic Bias of Telephone Surveys: Meta Analysis of 2007 Presidential Election Polls (전화조사의 체계적 편향 - 2007년 대통령선거 여론조사들에 대한 메타분석 -)

  • Kim, Se-Yong;Huh, Myung-Hoe
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.375-385
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    • 2009
  • For 2007 Korea presidential election, most polls by telephone surveys indicated Lee Myung-Bak led the second runner-up Jung Dong-Young by certain margin. The margin between two candidates can be estimated accurately by averaging individual poll results, provided there exists no systematic bias in telephone surveys. Most Korean telephone surveys via telephone directory are based on quota samples, with the region, the gender and the age-band as quota variables. Thus the surveys may result in certain systematic bias due to unbalanced factors inherent in quota sampling. The aim of this study is to answer the following questions by the analytic methods adopted in Huh et al. (2004): Question 1. Wasn't there systematic bias in estimates of support rates. Question 2. If yes, what was the source of the bias? To answer the questions, we collected eighteen surveys administered during the election campaign period and applied the iterated proportional weighting (the rim weighting) to the last eleven surveys to obtain the balance in five factors - region, gender, age, occupation and education level. We found that the support rate of Lee Myung-Bak was over-estimated consistently by 1.4%P and that of Jung Dong-Young was underestimated by 0.6%P, resulting in the over-estimation of the margin by 2.0%P. By investigating the Lee Myung-Bak bias with logistic regression models, we conclude that it originated from the under-representation of less educated class and/or the over-representation of house wives in telephone samples.

A Study on the Implication and Comparative Analysis of Criteria to Determine Origin under Korea's FTA with USA, EU and ASEAN (한국의 주요 FTA별 원산지 결정기준의 비교와 시사점)

  • Jung, Jae-Woo;Lee, Kil-Nam
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.143-166
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    • 2011
  • This paper describes the characteristics and outline of rules of origin among Korea and USA, EU, ASEAN. The main focus of this paper is to conduct comparative analysis on rules of origin. Rules of origin are used to determine the country of origin of a product for purposes of international trade. There are two common types of rules of origin depending upon application, the preferential and non-preferential rules of origin Non-preferential rules of origin are used to determine the country of origin for certain purposes. The basis for the non-preferential rules originates from the Kyoto convention which states that if a product is wholly obtained or produced completely within one country the product shall be deemed having origin in that country. For a product which has been produced in more than one country, the product shall be determined to have origin in the country where the last substantial transformation took place. To determine exactly what was the last substantial transformation, three general rules are applied : Change of tariff classification(on any level, though 4-digit level is the most common), Value added-rule.(ad-valorem), and Specific process rule. While criteria of wholly obtained or produced in one country is almost similar to those of theses area and countries, in compliance with value percentages of Substantial Transformation, sufficient working or processing, Korea-US FTA adapts 'Regional Value Content', meanwhile Korea-EU FTA adapts 'Import Content' rule. Finally, Korea-US FTA and ASEAN FTA adapt FOB price for the calculation value added, on the other hand Korea-EU FTA adapts EXW price.

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The Mediation effect of Self-Efficacy on the Relationship between Personality Factors and Stress Coping Strategies in college students -Focus on Neuroticism and Conscientiousness- (대학생의 성격요인과 스트레스 대처방식과의 관계에 대한 자기효능감의 매개효과 -신경증과 성실성을 중심으로-)

  • Baek, Yu-Mi
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.219-227
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to verify the mediating effects of self-efficacy in correlation between conscientiousness and neuroticism among the Big Five personality traits and stress coping strategies. The following two study questions were formulated. Study Question 1: What is the correlation between the Big Five personality traits, stress coping strategies, and self-efficacy Study Question 2: Among the Big Five personality traits, conscientiousness and neuroticism are selected as clinically very meaningful variables that represent mental health in undergraduates. If so, does self-efficacy play a mediating role in the correlation between conscientiousness and neuroticism and stress coping strategies To verify the two study questions, the Big Five personality traits, stress coping strategies scale, and self-efficacy scale were measured for a sample of 462 freshmen attending D University located in Chungcheong. First, according to the results of correlation analysis, neuroticism and self-efficacy showed a negative correlation, and conscientiousness showed a positive correlation. Regarding the Big Five personality traits and stress coping strategies, conscientiousness showed a negative correlation with avoidance-orientation among stress coping strategies. Neuroticism showed a negative correlation with social support and problem solving-orientation among stress coping strategies. Second, according to the results of analyzing the mediating effects of self-efficacy through hierarchical regression analysis, self-efficacy exerted partial mediating effects only in correlation between neuroticism and avoidance-orientation. This study is significant in its anticipation of undergraduates' stress coping, personality factors can be usefully employed as psychological constructs, and particularly, when an undergraduate reveals the neuroticism factor, which is one of the predictors for mental health, and the tendencies of avoidance among stress coping strategies, educational interventions for self-efficacy are needed to reduce their mental stress.

Determining the Priority of Lifelong Education Promotion Policy in Gyeongsangnam-do through AHP Analysis (AHP분석 방법을 통한 경상남도 평생교육진흥 정책 우선순위 결정)

  • Yun, Ji-Su
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.517-526
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    • 2013
  • Lifelong education promotion business to be the first to promote lifelong education promotion accountable to the governor of the city, the Lifelong Education Act Amendment (2007.12) emphasis on the research area 6 Lifelong Education and Lifelong Education Institute is established if analyzes what Gyeongsangnam-do lifetime policy implications for the promotion of education and implications are derived(through AHP). The results were as follows: occupational skill enhancement education (0.335) as the priority section. The development of life education policy (0.238) is the primary work process that must be initiated for the Gyeongnam life education promotion policy appropriate for the region's situation. This was followed by the development and distribution of life education program (0.148), construction of a connective system between life education organizations within the province (0.139) Raised the need to promote lifelong Education strategies, five core strategic industry linkages through regional industrial policy to keep pace with the flow of business for the Advancement of Education for the development and activation of Gyeongsangnam-do in a lifetime.

A Study on the Fire Prevention Activities and Suppression Measures of Utility-Pipe Conduit (지하공동구 화재예방활동 및 진압대책에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jung-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2010
  • Utility-Pipe Conduit is, Housing and city effectively accommodate what they absolutely need power, communications, gas, pipeline, water supply, drainage, energy facilities etc, according to expansion of urban infrastructure are derived, several ways to solve problems in, collection facilities in place are maintained and managed facility. If Utility-Pipe Conduit is damaged, as well as national security, because their impact on society as a whole, by introducing large vulnerability in the fire prevention activities and suppression measures and disaster for our situation by introducing measures, comprehensive analysis of the fire risk, it shall establish fire prevention activities and suppression through analysis of Utility-Pipe Conduit design, institutional issues, the problem of fire protection facilities, fire spread phenomenon etc. Because of Utility-Pipe Conduit is an enclosed place, so incomplete combustion due to lack of oxygen supply that there are problem such dark smoke, carbon monoxide etc, toxic combustion products and heat generation and visual impairment is an issue difficult to enter. As well as fire prevention activities, the fire In light of the particularity of the under ground than above ground fire, so this phenomenon is weak fire fighting that fire to become effective fire fighting tactics, basically it is necessary difficulty softening, non-burn softening and prevent combustion expansion of the cable is installed on the Utility-Pipe Conduit, having to considering the specificity of the response command system and relevant organizations to establish an on-site, Structural identification and other information gathering required to record of Response agencies, keep air conditioning system 24 hours and strengthening Virtual Total Training of Response agen

Selecting Climate Change Scenarios Reflecting Uncertainties (불확실성을 고려한 기후변화 시나리오의 선정)

  • Lee, Jae-Kyoung;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.149-161
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    • 2012
  • Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.

An Analysis on the Empathic Changing Process of the Members in Empathy Training Program (공감훈련프로그램 참여아동의 공감표현 변화과정 분석)

  • Kim, Mi-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Elementary Counseling
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.205-226
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of the study you have seen is to verify the effectiveness of existing quantitative research and to put the Empathy Training Program to practical use for participating children. From looking into this, the changes in empathic understanding that came to light in relationships between teacher and children and children and children are sure to have that effect. For this work, I established the following subject of inquiry: What kind of changing processes can be seen in the empathic understanding of participating children in the Empathy Training Program? To resolve the above line of inquiry, six female sixth grade elementary school students were chosen and they progressed through twelve sessions of the Empathy Training Program. The children were given a sentence completion exam, recognition work, neat writing exam and a school adaptation exam both before and after participation in the program, making data for analysis. To analyze, first, participants had one or two meetings of forty to fifty minutes each. Progress through the program's curriculum was recorded and through the repeating and copying method, to be sure participating children's empathic understanding was revealed, empathic language and behavior was routinely chosen. Next, according the above criteria I looked into visible changes of the participating children's empathic expressions, classifying and analyzing changes in empathic understanding and six instances of common changes in the emphatic understanding of the participants relationships were analyzed and put together. Next I will summarize the findings we have seen in this research: First, if we look into changes in common empathic understanding from the beginning, using the criteria of empathic language, each individual showed understanding at the beginning and passed and progressed through stages of care, insight and emotional expressions. Second, when we looked at the criteria of empathic behavior from the beginning to the end, one's line of vision and ability to concentrate one's attention was connected. Next, the act of nodding one's head looked like a brief nod at first but at the end, it was not just a simple nod but rather they could feel deep empathy. The condition and substance of the facial expression was seen to match and at the very end the child was expressive and stretched out arms to hold and pat the other person and the act of holding hands could also be seen. Among lots of empathic behavior the final stage was shown by half of the children. Third, from the first stage to the last stage there were many cases revealed. The more the children went the more complete their empathic language became. Their vocabulary increased and became more diverse with empathic actions. Also, when comparing actions and expressions from the beginning with the end, visible expressions became more natural and sincere at the end. The result of the research we have seen is that through receiving experience of empathic understanding, participating children showed a sense of self-confidence and they looked to make peaceful expressions while not being aggressive or defensive about problems. In addition, from understanding empathic expressions, participating children's relationships felt closer. This outcome within this group in this case will be applied and the formation of empathic understanding can be used by the children internally to solve their own problems, acquire close relationships with their teachers and others. It will also contribute to smooth classroom management.

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Big Data Study about the Effects of Weather Factors on Food Poisoning Incidence (기상요인과 식중독 발병의 연관성에 대한 빅 데이터 분석)

  • Park, Ji-Ae;Kim, Jang-Mook;Lee, Ho-Sung;Lee, He-Jin
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.319-327
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    • 2016
  • This research attempts an analysis that fuses the big data concerning weather variation and health care from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2014; it gives the weather factor as to what kind of influence there is for the incidence of food poisoning, and also endeavors to be helpful regarding national health prevention. By using R, the Logistic and Lasso Logistic Regression were analyzed. The main factor germ generating the food poisoning was classified and the incidence was confirmed for the germ of bacteria and virus. According to the result of the analysis of Logistic Regression, we found that the incidence of bacterial food poisoning was affected by the following influences: the average temperature, amount of sunshine deviation, and deviation of temperature. Furthermore, the weather factors, having an effect on the incidence of viral food poisoning, were: the minimum vapor pressure, amount of sunshine deviation and deviation of temperature. This study confirmed the correlation of meteorological factors and incidence of food poisoning. It was also found out that even if the incidence from two causes were influenced by the same weather factor, the incidence might be oppositely affected by the characteristic of the germs.

Spatial OLAP Implementation for GIS Decision-Making - With emphasis on Urban Planning - (GIS 의사결정을 지원하기 위한 Spatial OLAP 구현 - 도시계획을 중심으로 -)

  • Kyung, Min-Ju;Yom, Jae-Hong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.689-698
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    • 2009
  • SOLAP system integrates and complements the functions of both OLAP and GIS systems. This enables users not only to easily access geospatial data but also to analyze and extract information for decision making. In this study a SOLAP system was designed and implemented to provide urban planners with GIS information when making urban planning decisions. Rapid urbanization in Korea has brought about ill-balanced urban structure as the result of development without detailed analysis of urban plans. Systematic urban planning procedures and automated systems are crucial for detail analysis of future development plans. Data regarding the development regulations and current status of land use need to be assessed precisely and instantly. Multi-dimensional aspects of a suggested plan must be formulated instantly and examined thoroughly using 'what if' scenarios to come up with a best possible plan. The SOLAP system presented in this study designed the dimension tables and the fact tables for supplying timely geospatial information to the planners when making decisions regarding urban planning. The database was implemented using open source DBMS and was populated with necessary attribute data which was freely available from the Statistics Korea bureau homepage. It is anticipated the SOLAP system presented in this study will contribute to better urban planning decisions in Korea through more timely and accurate provision of geospatial information.

Social Worker's Perceptions and Working Experiences of Older Adults Who Live Alone in Severe Social Isolation Based on the Case of 「Making Friends of Older Adults who Live Alone」 (「독거노인 친구만들기」를 통해 살펴본 '숨겨진 이웃', 사회적 고립이 심각한 노인 1인 가구에 대한 사회복지사의 인식과 경험에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yujin
    • 한국노년학
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.1149-1171
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to increase understanding of the social intervention for severely isolated older adults who live alone and are in serious isolation as if they were 'hidden'. Through qualitative descriptive methods, it intends to describe how social workers in the "Making Friends of Older Adults who Live Alone" project have perceived older adults living alone in serious isolated situation, whether there have been changes in the perception of the elderly according to the progress of the project, and what kinds of experiences these social workers have had while providing case management to older adults. In-depth interviews with 40 social workers, case management records of 70 senior citizens, and research journals were collected and analyzed using qualitative content analysis methods. The results of data analysis were presented in two categories and four subcategories each. Based on the research findings, four kinds of implications were suggested.