• 제목/요약/키워드: WeibullDistribution

검색결과 1,007건 처리시간 0.028초

신뢰도 분석을 통한 고속도로 교량의 바닥판 잔존 수명 예측 (The Prediction of Remaining Life of Concrete Bridge Decks Using The Reliability Analysis)

  • 박정희;이상훈;김지원;박철우;이동현
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2011
  • 국내 고속도로의 교량은 2000년 이후 집중된 선형개량 및 신규 노선 증가 사업으로 10년 전과 비교하여 2배 이상 증가하였다. 이에 따라 유지관리 비용도 지속적으로 증가하고 있다. 현재 고속도로 유지관리 예산 비중이 가장 높은 항목은 아스팔트 교면 교량의 콘크리트 바닥판 열화에 의한 보강 부분이다. 2011년 고속도로 관리교량은 약 7,800여개에 도달한 시점에서 현재 방법으로는 향후 어느 정도 바닥판 보강 예산이 필요한지 어느 시기에 증액을 하여야되는지 명확하게 추정하기 어렵다. 본 연구에서는 신뢰도 분석 방법인 와이불 분포에 의한 생존 수명 예측 기법을 적용하여 현재 고속도로 아스팔트 계열의 교면 교량의 평균 수명을 추정하였고 이를 토대로 향후 예상 보강 비용을 추정하였다.

고온초전도 변압기를 위한 턴간 모델의 V-t 특성 및 생존 확률 (V-t Characteristics and Survival Probability of Turn-to-Turn Models for HTS Transformer)

  • 백승명;천현권;;석복렬;김상현
    • 한국전기전자재료학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전기전자재료학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 논문집 Vol.17
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    • pp.356-362
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    • 2004
  • Using multi wrapped copper by polyimide film for HTS transformer, the breakdown and V-t characteristics of two type models for turn-to-turn, one is point contact model, the other is surface contact model, were investigated under ac and impulse voltage at 77 K. A material that is Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thickness is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. Statistical analysis of the results using Weibull distribution to examine the wrapping number effects on V-t characteristics under at voltage as well as breakdown voltage under ac and impulse voltage in $LN_2$ was carried. Also, survival analysis was performed according to the Kaplan-Meier method. The breakdown voltages for surface contact model are lower than that of the point contact model, because the contact area of surface contact model is wider than that of point contact model. At the same time, the shape parameter of the point contact model is a little bit larger than the of the surface contact model. The time to breakdown tn is decreased as the applied voltage is increased, and the lifetime indices slightly are increased as the number of layers is increased. According to the increasing applied voltage and decreasing wrapping number, the survival probability is increased.

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비재생혼합보증이 종료된 이후의 비용과 비가동시간에 근거한 교체정책에 대한 베이지안 접근 (A Bayesian approach to replacement policy following the expiration of non-renewing combination warranty based on cost and downtime)

  • 정기문
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제21권5호
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    • pp.873-882
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    • 2010
  • 본 논문에서는 비재생혼합보증이 종료된 이후의 교체정책에 대한 베이지안 접근을 고려한다. 이때, 비재생혼합보증은 비재생무료교체보증과 비재생비례교체보증의 혼합된 형태가 된다. 최적의 교체주기를 결정하기 위하여 기대비용과 기대비가동시간에 근거한 기준이 사용되는데, 이를 위해서 단위시간당 기대비용과 단위시간당 기대비가동시간이 각각 구해진다. 시스템의 고장시간이 불확실한 모수를 갖는 와이블분포를 할 때, 베이지안 접근에 근거하여 최적의 교체정책이 제안된다. 이때, 최적의 교체주기를 결정하기 위해서 Jiang과 Ji (2002)에 의해서 제안된 총밸류함수가 사용된다. 끝으로, 본 논문에서 제안된 베이지안 교체정책을 설명하기 위해서 수치적 예를 살펴본다.

The effect of coloring liquid dipping time on the fracture load and color of zirconia ceramics

  • Orhun, Ekren
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSE. The aims of the study were to evaluate the fracture load of zirconia core material after dipping in coloring liquid at different time intervals and to compare the color of dipped blocks with that of prefabricated shaded blocks. MATERIALS AND METHODS. 3-unit bridge frameworks were designed digitally. Sixty frameworks were fabricated using uncolored zirconia blocks by CAD/CAM and divided into 4 groups randomly (n = 15). Group 2 (G2) was subjected to coloring liquids for 2 minutes, Group 4 (G4) for 4 minutes, and Group 6 (G6) for 6 minutes. CFS group was not subjected to any coloring procedure. After coloring, color differences between the test groups and a prefabricated shaded zirconia group (CPZ, n = 15) were evaluated by using a spectrophotometer. Fracture test was conducted immediately after shade evaluation with a Testometric test device at a cross-head speed of 1 mm/sec. Statistical analysis for evaluating color and fracture load was performed by using one way ANOVA followed by Tukey HSD test ($P{\leq}.05$). Weibull analysis was conducted for distribution of fracture load. RESULTS. There was no difference in terms of fracture load and color between CFS (1176.681 N) and G2 (985.638 N) group and between CPZ (81.340) and G2 (81.140) group, respectively. Fracture load values of G4 (779.340 N) and G6 (935.491 N) groups were statistically significantly lower than that of CFS group ($P{\leq}.005$). The color values of G4 (79.340) and G6 (79.673) groups were statistically different than that of CPZ group ($P{\leq}.005$). CONCLUSION. Prolonged immersion of zirconia in coloring liquid not only negatively affected the fracture load of the zirconia being tested in the current study but also deteriorated the desired shade of the restoration.

RF 고전력 스트레스에 의한 SAW Device의 고장메카니즘 분석 (Failure Mechanism Analysis of SAW Device under RF High Power Stress)

  • 김영구;김태홍
    • 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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    • 제14권5호
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    • pp.215-221
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    • 2014
  • 본 논문에서는 RF 고전력 스트레스에 의한 SAW 디바이스의 신뢰성 분석을 위하여 향상된 내전력 시험시스템 및 시험방법을 제안하고 고장분석을 통해 고장메카니즘을 분석하였다. 광학현미경, SEM(Scanning Electron Microscope) 및 EDX(Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectro-scopy)장비를 이용하여 고장 분석한 결과, SAW 디바이스의 고장메카니즘은 고전류 밀도 및 고온 조건에서 줄열에 의한 Electromigration으로 분석하였다. Electromigration은 IDT전극에 void와 hillock을 생성하고, 그 결과로 전극이 단락과 단선되어 삽입손실이 증가하는 것이다. 제안된 내전력 시험시스템과 방법을 이용하여 450MHz CDMA용 SAW 필터의 가속수명시험을 수행하고, 아이링 모델과 와이블 분포를 이용하여 SAW 필터의 $B_{10}$수명은 98,500시간으로 추정하였다.

Application of Cox and Parametric Survival Models to Assess Social Determinants of Health Affecting Three-Year Survival of Breast Cancer Patients

  • Mohseny, Maryam;Amanpour, Farzaneh;Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza;Jafari, Hossein;Moradi-Joo, Mohammad;Monfared, Esmat Davoudi
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제17권sup3호
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    • pp.311-316
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    • 2016
  • Breast cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer mortality in Iran. Social determinants of health are among the key factors affecting the pathogenesis of diseases. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the social determinants of breast cancer survival time with parametric and semi-parametric regression models. It was conducted on male and female patients diagnosed with breast cancer presenting to the Cancer Research Center of Shohada-E-Tajrish Hospital from 2006 to 2010. The Cox proportional hazard model and parametric models including the Weibull, log normal and log-logistic models were applied to determine the social determinants of survival time of breast cancer patients. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to assess the best fit. Statistical analysis was performed with STATA (version 11) software. This study was performed on 797 breast cancer patients, aged 25-93 years with a mean age of 54.7 (${\pm}11.9$) years. In both semi-parametric and parametric models, the three-year survival was related to level of education and municipal district of residence (P<0.05). The AIC suggested that log normal distribution was the best fit for the three-year survival time of breast cancer patients. Social determinants of health such as level of education and municipal district of residence affect the survival of breast cancer cases. Future studies must focus on the effect of childhood social class on the survival times of cancers, which have hitherto only been paid limited attention.

Prognostic factors for survival of dogs infected with canine parvovirus

  • Pak, Son-il;Hwang, Cheol-young;Han, Hong-ryul
    • 대한수의학회지
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    • 제39권4호
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    • pp.838-845
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    • 1999
  • To determine the prognostic factors for survival of dogs infected with canine parvovirus, clinical and laboratory data of 35 dogs with clinical signs compatible with canine parvoviral enteritis admitted to the Veterinary Medical Teaching Hospital, Seoul National University during the period 1997-1998 were collected. Dogs were grouped by some major covariates, which can be considered as guides to the relative prognosis of dogs in the different subgroups. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Weibull proportional hazard model were used to estimate overall survival, evaluate the comparability between groups, and identify potential prognostic factors. The overall survival rate for all dogs was 45.7% over the study period, and the Kaplan-Meier estimate of one week survival was 0.4989. Gender was the most favorable prognosis ; male dog (median, 6 days) had significantly higher risk of dying than female dog (median, 17 days ; p = 0.0023). In addition to gender, age was significantly associated with survival, with juvenile dogs less than 6-month-old having higher risk (p = 0.0359). Dogs that vaccinated with complete protocol (p = 0.0374) and those of having higher value of mean corpuscular volume (p = 0.0346) were found to be of prognostic importance. The 7 dogs in which white blood cell count of less than 2000 had shorter median survival time (3 days) than the remaining 28 dogs (8 days), but no statistical significance was found between leukopenic and survival. The distribution of packed cell volume and hemoglobin measurement was such that the overall risk of dying in the two groups was comparable. Further studies are needed to more accurately assess these results.

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Rapid response calculation of LNG cargo containment system under sloshing load using wavelet transformation

  • Kim, Yooil
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • 제5권2호
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    • pp.227-245
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    • 2013
  • Reliable strength assessment of the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) cargo containment system under the sloshing impact load is very difficult task due to the complexity of the physics involved in, both in terms of the hydrodynamics and structural mechanics. Out of all those complexities, the proper selection of the design sloshing load which is applied to the structural model of the LNG cargo containment system, is one of the most challenging one due to its inherent randomness as well as the statistical analysis which is tightly linked to the design sloshing load selection. In this study, the response based strength assessment procedure of LNG cargo containment system has been developed and proposed as an alternative design methodology. Sloshing pressure time history, measured from the model test, is decomposed into wavelet basis function targeting the minimization of the number of the basis function together with the maximization of the numerical efficiency. Then the response of the structure is obtained using the finite element method under each wavelet basis function of different scale. Finally, the response of the structure under entire sloshing impact time history is rapidly calculated by synthesizing the structural response under wavelet basis function. Through this analysis, more realistic response of the system under sloshing impact pressure can be obtained without missing the details of pressure time history such as rising pattern, oscillation due to air entrapment and decay pattern and so on. The strength assessment of the cargo containment system is then performed based on the statistical analysis of the stress peaks selected out of the obtained stress time history.

ASSESSMENT OF WIND CHARACTERISTICS AND ATMOSPHERIC DISPERSION MODELING OF 137Cs ON THE BARAKAH NPP AREA IN THE UAE

  • Lee, Jong Kuk;Kim, Jea Chul;Lee, Kun Jai;Belorid, Miloslav;Beeley, Philip A.;Yun, Jong-Il
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제46권4호
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    • pp.557-568
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    • 2014
  • This paper presents the results of an analysis of wind characteristics and atmosphere dispersion modeling that are based on computational simulation and part of a preliminary study evaluating environmental radiation monitoring system (ERMS) positions within the Barakah nuclear power plant (BNPP). The return period of extreme wind speed was estimated using the Weibull distribution over the life time of the BNPP. In the annual meteorological modeling, the winds from the north and west accounted for more than 90 % of the wind directions. Seasonal effects were not represented. However, a discrepancy in the tendency between daytime and nighttime was observed. Six variations of cesium-137 ($^{137}Cs$) dispersion test were simulated under severe accident condition. The $^{137}Cs$ dispersion was strongly influenced by the direction and speed of the main wind. A virtual receptor was set and calculated for observation of the $^{137}Cs$ movement and accumulation. The results of the surface roughness effect demonstrated that the deposition of $^{137}Cs$ was affected by surface condition. The results of these studies offer useful information for developing environmental radiation monitoring systems (ERMSs) for the BNPP and can be used to assess the environmental effects of new nuclear power plant.

고장 분석을 통한 승객서비스 장치의 신뢰성 향상방안 연구 (A Study for Reliability Improvement of Passenger Service Equipment using Failure Analysis)

  • 노범택;정광우
    • 한국철도학회논문집
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    • 제19권5호
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    • pp.609-616
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    • 2016
  • 승객서비스 장치는 역정보 등 다양한 열차운행 정보를 제공하기 위해 설치된 승객 접점장치로 고장이나 오류 시 열차운행에 영향은 적지만 승객들은 큰 불편을 느끼게 된다. 이에 본 논문에서는 신뢰성기반 유지보수(RCM)를 운영자 입장에서 적용했던 기존 시각에서 벗어나, 승객 입장에서 중요장치인 승객서비스 장치를 분석대상으로 선정하였다. 서울도시철도공사의 데이터를 기초로 승객서비스 장치에 대한 고장분석 및 FMEA/FMECA수행, 심각-발생도 매트릭스 및 위험우선순위평가 결과를 기반으로 통합 설정기를 분석대상으로 선정하였으며, 와이블분포를 통해 고장패턴, 고장률 등 고장해석을 수행하였다. 이를 바탕으로 승객서비스 장치의 고장 최소화 방안을 제시하였다.