• Title/Summary/Keyword: Weibull Distributions

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Optimal Two-Stage Periodic Inspection Policy for Maintaining Storage Reliability (저장신뢰도 유지를 위한 최적 2단계 주기적 검사정책)

  • Cho, Yong-Suk;Lee, Joo-Ho
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.387-402
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    • 2008
  • In this thesis we propose a two-stage periodic inspection model for maintaining the reliability of a system in long-term storage. There are two types of tests available; a fallible test and an error-free test. The system is overhauled at detection of failure or when the storage reliability after inspection becomes less than or equal to the prespecified value. The expected cost per unit time until overhaul is derived and a procedure for minimizing the expected cost is suggested. The two-stage periodic inspection model is compared with the one-stage periodic inspection model for various parameters of the cost function when the failure time follows exponential and Weibull distributions. The proposed model is then applied to an existing missile system for comparison with the current inspection policy.

Goodness of Fit Tests for the Exponential Distribution based on Multiply Progressive Censored Data (다중 점진적 중도절단에서 지수분포의 적합도 검정)

  • Yun, Hyejeong;Lee, Kyeongjun
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2813-2827
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    • 2018
  • Progressive censoring schemes have become quite popular in reliability study. Under progressive censored data, however, some units can be failed between two points of observation with exact times of failure of these units unobserved. For example, loss may arise in life-testing experiments when the failure times of some units were not observed due to mechanical or experimental difficulties. Therefore, multiply progressive censoring scheme was introduced. So, we derives a maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter of exponential distribution. And we introduced the goodness-of-fit test statistics using order statistic and Lorenz curve. We carried out Monte Carlo simulation to compare the proposed test statistics. In addition, real data set have been analysed. In Weibull and chi-squared distributions, the test statistics using Lorenz curve are more powerful than test statistics using order statistics.

Metro Station Clustering based on Travel-Time Distributions (통행시간 분포 기반의 전철역 클러스터링)

  • Gong, InTaek;Kim, DongYun;Min, Yunhong
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.193-204
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    • 2022
  • Smart card data is representative mobility data and can be used for policy development by analyzing public transportation usage behavior. This paper deals with the problem of classifying metro stations using metro usage patterns as one of these studies. Since the previous papers dealing with clustering of metro stations only considered traffic among usage behaviors, this paper proposes clustering considering traffic time as one of the complementary methods. Passengers at each station were classified into passengers arriving at work time, arriving at quitting time, leaving at work time, and leaving at quitting time, and then the estimated shape parameter was defined as the characteristic value of the station by modeling each transit time to Weibull distribution. And the characteristic vectors were clustered using the K-means clustering technique. As a result of the experiment, it was observed that station clustering considering pass time is not only similar to the clustering results of previous studies, but also enables more granular clustering.

Assessment of Extreme Wind Risk for Window Systems in Apartment Buildings Based on Probabilistic Model (확률 모형 기반의 아파트 창호 시스템 강풍 위험도 평가)

  • Ham, Hee Jung;Yun, Woo-Seok;Choi, Seung Hun;Lee, Sungsu;Kim, Ho-Jeong
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.625-633
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    • 2015
  • In this study, a coupled probabilistic framework is developed to assess wind risk on apartment buildings by using the convolution of wind hazard and fragility functions. In this framework, typhoon induced extreme wind is estimated by applying the developed Monte Carlo simulation model to the climatological data of typhoons affecting Korean peninsular from 1951 to 2013. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is also used to assess wind fragility function for 4 different damage states by comparing the probability distributions of the window system's resistance performance and wind load. Wind hazard and fragility functions are modeled by the Weibull and lognormal probability distributions based on simulated wind speeds and failure probabilities. The modeled functions are convoluted to obtain the wind risk for the different damage levels. The developed probabilistic framework clearly shows that wind risk are influenced by various important characteristics of terrain and apartment building such as location of building, exposure category, topographic condition, roof angle, height of building, etc. The risk model presented in this paper can be used as tools to predict economic loss estimation and to establish wind risk mitigation plan for the existing building inventory.

A Derivation of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationship for the Design of Urban Drainage System in Korea (우리나라 도시배수시스템 설계를 위한 확률강우강도식의 유도)

  • Lee, Jae-Jun;Lee, Jeong-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.403-415
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    • 1999
  • This study is to derive the rainfall intensity formula based on the representative probability distribution in Korea. The 11 probability distributions which has been widely used in hydrologic frequency analysis are applied to the annual maximum rainfall. The parameters of each probability distribution are estimated by method of moments, maximum likelihood method and method of probability weighted moments. Four tests such as $x^2$-test, Kolmogorv-Smirnov test, difference test and modified difference test are used to determine the goodness of fit of the distributions. The homogeneous tests (Mann-Whitney U test, Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance of nonparametric test) are applied to find the stations with rainfall homogeneity. The results of homogeneous tests show that there is no representative appropriate distribution for the whole duration in Korea. The whole region could be divided into five zones for 12-durations. The representative probability distribution of each divided zone for 12-durations was determined. The GEV distribution for I,II,V zones and the 3-parameter Weibull distribution for III,IV zones were determined as the representative probability distribution. The rainfall were obtained from representative probability distribution for the selected return periods. Rainfall intensity formula was determined by linearization technique for the rainfall.

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Development Model of the Foxglove Aphid, Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach) on Lettuce (상추에서의 싸리수염진딧물(Aulacorthum solani)의 발육과 발육모형)

  • Lee, Sang-Guei;Kim, Hyeong-Hwan;Kim, Tae-Heung;Park, Gil-Jun;Kim, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Ji-Soo
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.47 no.4
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    • pp.359-364
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    • 2008
  • The development of Aulacorthum solani (Kaltenbach) was studied at temperatures ranging from 12.5 to $27.5^{\circ}C$ under $65{\pm}5%$ RH, and a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D). Mortality of $1st{\sim}2nd$ nymph was higher than that of $3rd{\sim}4th$ nymph at the most temperature ranges whereas at high temperature of $27.5^{\circ}C$, more $3{\sim}4th$ nymph stage individuals died. The total developmental time ranged from 16.9 days at $12.5^{\circ}C$ to 6.6days at $22.5^{\circ}C$, suggesting that higher the temperature, faster the development. However, at higher temperature of $25^{\circ}C$ the development took 7.4 days. The lower developmental threshold temperature and effective accumulative temperatures for the total immature stage were $0.08^{\circ}C$ and 162.8 day-degreeslated development. The nonlinear shape of temperature rewas well described by the modified Sharpe and DeMichele model. When the normalized cumulative frequency distributions of developmental times for each life stage were fitted to the three-parameter Weibull function, attendance of shortened developmental times was apparent with in $1{\sim}2nd$ nymph, $3{\sim}4th$ nymph, and total nymph stages in descending order. The coefficient of determination $r^2$ ranged between 0.86 and 0.91.

Temperature-dependent Development and Its Model of the Greenbug, Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) (Homoptera: Aphididae) (보리두갈래진딧물 [Schizaphis graminum (Rondani)]의 온도발육과 발육모형)

  • Lee, Jang-Ho;Kim, Tae-Heung;Kim, Ji-Soo;Hwangn, Chang-Yeon;Lee, Sang-Guei
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.213-219
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    • 2007
  • The development of Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) was studied at various constant temperatures ranging from 15 to $32.5^{\circ}C$, with $65{\pm}5%$ RH, and a photoperiod of 16L:8D. Mortality of the $1_{st}-2_{nd}\;and\;the\;3_{rd}-4_{th}$ stage nymphs were similar at most temperature ranges while at high temperature of $32.5^{\circ}C$, more $3_{rd}-4_{th}$ stage individuals died. The total developmental time ranged from 13.8 days at $15^{\circ}C$ to 4.9 days at $30.0^{\circ}C$ suggesting that the higher the temperature, the faster the development. However, at higher end temperature of $32.5^{\circ}C$ the development took 6.4 days. The lower developmental threshold temperature and effective accumulative temperatures for the total immature stage were $6.8^{\circ}C$ and 105.9 day-degrees, respectively and the nonlinear shape of temperature related development was well described by the modified Sharpe and DeMichele model. The normalized cumulative frequency distributions of developmental period for each life stage were fitted to the three-parameter Weibull function. The attendance of shortened developmental times was apparent with $1_{st}-2_{nd}\;nymph,\;3_{rd}-4_{th}$ nymph, and total nymph stages in descending order. The coefficient of determination $r^2$ ranged between 0.80 and 0.87.

Estimation of Berthing Velocity Using Probability Distribution Characteristics in Tanker Terminal (확률분포 특성을 이용한 탱커부두에서의 선박접안속도 예측값 추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Won;Cho, Jang-Won;Cho, Ik-Soon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.186-196
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    • 2019
  • Berthing energy is majorly influenced by the berthing velocity. It is necessary to design an appropriate berthing velocity for each pier, since excessive berthing velocity can cause berthing accident causing damage to the ship and pier. In this study, as a statistical approach for berthing velocity, the probability distributions suitable for the berthing velocities were confirmed using the K-S test, the A-D test and the Q-Q plot. As a result, the frequency distribution of the berthing velocity was found to be suitable using the Weibull distribution as well as the lognormal distribution. Additionally, the predicted values obtained through estimation of the berthing velocity using the concept of probability of exceedance in this study is proposed as a reference of design berthing velocity. It can be observed that the design berthing velocity is set to be somewhat low so that it does not practically match with the reality. This study and its results can be expected to contribute to the development of a proper design velocity calculation method.

Evaluation and Comparison of Effects of Air and Tomato Leaf Temperatures on the Population Dynamics of Greenhouse Whitefly (Trialeurodes vaporariorum) in Cherry Tomato Grown in Greenhouses (시설내 대기 온도와 방울토마토 잎 온도가 온실가루이(Trialeurodes vaporariorum)개체군 발달에 미치는 영향 비교)

  • Park, Jung-Joon;Park, Kuen-Woo;Shin, Key-Il;Cho, Ki-Jong
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.420-432
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    • 2011
  • Population dynamics of greenhouse whitefly, Trialeurodes vaporariorum (Westwood), were modeled and simulated to compare the temperature effects of air and tomato leaf inside greenhouse using DYMEX model simulator (pre-programed module based simulation program developed by CSIRO, Australia). The DYMEX model simulator consisted of temperature dependent development and oviposition modules. The normalized cumulative frequency distributions of the developmental period for immature and oviposition frequency rate and survival rate for adult of greenhouse whitefly were fitted to two-parameter Weibull function. Leaf temperature on reversed side of cherry tomato leafs (Lycopersicon esculentum cv. Koko) was monitored according to three tomato plant positions (top, > 1.6 m above the ground level; middle, 0.9 - 1.2 m; bottom, 0.3 - 0.5 m) using an infrared temperature gun. Air temperature was monitored at same three positions using a Hobo self-contained temperature logger. The leaf temperatures from three plant positions were described as a function of the air temperatures with 3-parameter exponential and sigmoidal models. Data sets of observed air temperature and predicted leaf temperatures were prepared, and incorporated into the DYMEX simulator to compare the effects of air and leaf temperature on population dynamics of greenhouse whitefly. The number of greenhouse whitefly immatures was counted by visual inspection in three tomato plant positions to verify the performance of DYMEX simulation in cherry tomato greenhouse where air and leaf temperatures were monitored. The egg stage of greenhouse whitefly was not counted due to its small size. A significant positive correlation between the observed and the predicted numbers of immature and adults were found when the leaf temperatures were incorporated into DYMEX simulation, but no significant correlation was observed with the air temperatures. This study demonstrated that the population dynamics of greenhouse whitefly was affected greatly by the leaf temperatures, rather than air temperatures, and thus the leaf surface temperature should be considered for management of greenhouse whitefly in cherry tomato grown in greenhouses.