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http://dx.doi.org/10.5394/KINPR.2019.43.3.186

Estimation of Berthing Velocity Using Probability Distribution Characteristics in Tanker Terminal  

Lee, Sang-Won (Graduate School, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Cho, Jang-Won (Korea Institute of Maritime and Fisheries Technology)
Cho, Ik-Soon (Department of Ship Operation, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Publication Information
Journal of Navigation and Port Research / v.43, no.3, 2019 , pp. 186-196 More about this Journal
Abstract
Berthing energy is majorly influenced by the berthing velocity. It is necessary to design an appropriate berthing velocity for each pier, since excessive berthing velocity can cause berthing accident causing damage to the ship and pier. In this study, as a statistical approach for berthing velocity, the probability distributions suitable for the berthing velocities were confirmed using the K-S test, the A-D test and the Q-Q plot. As a result, the frequency distribution of the berthing velocity was found to be suitable using the Weibull distribution as well as the lognormal distribution. Additionally, the predicted values obtained through estimation of the berthing velocity using the concept of probability of exceedance in this study is proposed as a reference of design berthing velocity. It can be observed that the design berthing velocity is set to be somewhat low so that it does not practically match with the reality. This study and its results can be expected to contribute to the development of a proper design velocity calculation method.
Keywords
Berthing Energy; Berthing Velocity; Berthing Accident; Probability Distribution Function; Goodness of Fit; K-S test; A-D test; Q-Q Plot; Probability of Exceedance;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 5  (Citation Analysis)
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